1, history: coincidence

As we all know, there have been several waves of VR waves shot to death on the beach in history.

From 65438 to 0968, ivan sutherland, the father of computer graphics, developed Sutherland, the first helmet display and head position tracking system driven by computer graphics. However, due to technical limitations, the equipment is quite bulky.

1983, NASA developed the virtual environment visual display VIVED VR for Mars exploration, which is very similar to today's VR equipment. However, the high cost of millions of dollars has discouraged the civilian market.

A few years later, VPL Research, founded by computer scientist jaron lanier, launched a series of VR products, including head-mounted displays, motion tracking gloves and surround sound systems ... Although the price is still expensive, VPL Research is the first company to push VR equipment to the civilian market.

Since then, with the rapid update of technology, the company has launched VR products from time to time with the intention of opening up the civilian market, including the famous Hasbro, SEGA, Nintendo and Sony. However, due to the technical level, without exception, it ended in failure because of high cost and low performance.

At the end of the 20th century, the VR craze fell silent after a group of pioneers angrily went home.

We all know what happened afterwards.

In 20 12, Oculus Rift launched a crowdfunding campaign on KickStarter, which raised $2.43 million in one month, causing a sensation. VR has once again entered the public eye.

In 20 14, Facebook acquired Oculus for $2 billion, and the commercialization process of VR flourished again.

2, the first year: gongs and drums.

In 15~ 16, which is called the first year of VR, several large companies concentrated on innovation.

Oculus, which was acquired by Facebook, launched CV 1(PC), HTC launched Vive(PC), Sony launched PSVR(PS4), Samsung launched Gear VR (Samsung flagship machine), and even Google launched Daydream View (high-end Android machine). Competing with each other is very lively.

The 20 16 Virtual Reality Annual Report released by Superdata, a market research company focusing on the game industry, shows that the total revenue of the VR industry is $201800 million, of which 3140,000 is consumer software and service revenue, among which games are the highest level with 44%.

As for the expectation of the future, the figures given by various data companies and investment institutions are not the same. For example, for the overall market size in 2020, from the conservative estimate of $7 billion given by Deutsche Bank to the optimistic expectation of $37.7 billion given by Superdata, the difference between the two is nearly five times. The expectations given by other institutions are basically between $654.38 and $00-35 billion. All institutions agree that the scale of the VR market is in a stage of sustained growth, and the differences focus on: Will the VR market grow steadily in the next few years, or will it usher in an industry outbreak?

Goldman Sachs: Basic Forecast of VR Software and Hardware Market (released on June 20 16)

Goldman Sachs' expectations for the VR software market are:

In 2020, the revenue was 1, 3 1 billion, of which video games were 6.9 billion, accounting for 52.67%;

In 2025, the revenue was 35 billion, including video games11600 million, accounting for 33. 13%.

These two ratios fluctuated around 44% of the actual ratio of 20 16, first rising slightly and then falling back.

In other words, Goldman Sachs predicts that game segmentation will continue to exert its strength in the short term. In the medium and long term, with the development of technology, VR has greater possibilities and VR+ will rise. Goldman Sachs Group believes that VR may become "the next generation computing platform after computers and smartphones".

3. Status quo: The road resistance is long.

VR is a new industry, and the hardware technology as its industrial foundation is not yet mature. At present, academic research is mainly focused on technology research and development, not to mention the application potential and business model. Therefore, the development of various applications and services based on VR must be defined within the limited HMD (Head Display) performance, which is the biggest difference between the immature VR industry and the mature Internet industry. In the internet industry, you can think broadly and then do it. However, in the VR industry, at this stage, what is freely imagined still stays in the category of science fiction stories.

In modern society, in China, we are optimistic at heart. All technological innovations that have entered the public's field of vision are basically progressing smoothly, and the result is the old saying that "people's lives are changing with each passing day." So we tend to think that every wave will succeed.

Second, the VR game industry

1, the difference between VR games and traditional games

Many people think that since VR games are 3D games made with existing game engines, they are not much different from the games we play in mobile phones and computers, but in fact, the design logic of the two is completely different.

At present, it is not uncommon for games to support both normal mode and VR mode in the market, such as the explosion of Resident Evil 7, but the conversion between them is not a simple compatibility, but a redesign of the system.

If ordinary 3D games are directly thrown to HD, then no matter how excellent the original game is, most players will only feel annoyed and even "spit" in the true sense.

The difference between VR games and ordinary video games is huge. For example, let you play "losing your handkerchief" on the computer, will you find it fun?

The difference between VR games and traditional games is mainly reflected in five aspects:

1) immersion difference

Immersion refers to the feeling that users integrate their body and mind into the virtual world. In VR, players can see the virtual world directly through their own eyes, and even turn their eyes to change their perspective as in reality. There is no medium of screen and controller, so VR has a high degree of immersion, which is also the core charm and eternal pursuit of VR technology. High immersion also makes VR naturally fit with some game types and themes. For example, FPS, terror &; Pornographic games, etc.

Because high immersion magnifies the player's emotions, it also confuses the virtual and the reality. The control of game scale has also caused many moral disputes.

2) Differences in display modes

In traditional games, players and the game world are separated by the medium of screen. The UI on the screen will help players play games better, such as blood bars, such as task lists. But in the VR world, without the medium of screen, where should the information in the UI be placed? UI design must be re-conceived and completely changed for VR.

3) differences in observation methods

In VR games, players can freely choose the direction of observation, and developers can't interfere. In addition, the traditional montage narrative method has lost its meaning in VR. Story animation commonly used in traditional games is quite embarrassing in VR games. Although the story happened as usual, the player may not have seen it. How to guide the player's line of sight to the place where the plot takes place and how to maintain the appeal of the plot when the developer loses control of the camera are all worth pondering.

PS: Google Spotlight Stories Studio is good at immersive narrative. The short stories they made can be found in APP:Google Spotlight Stories. By the way, this studio closed on 20 19 this year.

4) Differences in interaction modes

VR games require players to wear opaque HMD devices, so in the current input devices, the keyboard, mouse and touch screen can only be forced to retire, leaving only the gamepad. Somatosensory devices that can show the unique charm of highly immersive VR games are obviously more popular. Eye tracking, motion capture, sound control, and even reading brain nerve signals .................................. ……VR games have various interactive ways.

Motion controller is the most popular VR game input device. Disadvantages are: tired. Advantages: you can lose weight.

5) differences in moving modes

Virtual reality sports internet addiction is a hurdle when talking about VR games. We mainly rely on vestibular, visual and proprioception receptors to feel position, movement and external stimuli. Motion sickness is generally considered to be caused by the collision between the physical motion signal sensed by the vestibular system of the inner ear and the virtual motion signal (vision) generated by VR equipment. At present, it is difficult for VR technology to fully simulate the real environment, so it is impossible to unify various perceptions.

The existence of motion sickness limits the movement of players in VR games. If the player is as free as the wind in the traditional game, eye discomfort, dizziness and nausea are all minutes.

In this regard, different VR games give different solutions, such as limiting the player's activity area, teleporting, adding virtual vehicles, using physical treadmill assistance and so on. However, there are more or less problems such as reducing immersion, reducing playability and raising the threshold of the game. Mobile mode is one of the difficulties in VR game development, and the perfect solution remains to be explored.

2. Current situation of domestic VR game developers

The "20 16 China Game Industry Report" jointly compiled by the Game Working Committee of China Music and Digital Association, China-Singapore Game Research Center (Gamma Data) and International Data Corporation (IDC) makes it very clear:

While welcoming development opportunities, VR games also face multiple challenges.

Among them, the payment model is a problem.

Especially for game products, there is not enough user base, and it is difficult to earn real money by popular free mode.

In addition, different parameters and standards of different VR devices also bring challenges to the development of VR games.

At the same time, VR equipment is expensive, weak in portability and slow in acquisition, which makes cheap glasses cases quickly erode the entry market of VR and overdraw the value concept of VR. The performance of these devices is poor, so it is difficult to meet the higher requirements of users, which distorts users' cognition of VR concept.

At present, in order to help VR games land in advance and cultivate user habits, investors are investing heavily in VR experience stores, with the intention of solving the problem of high threshold of VR equipment through this model, such as building experience stores in shopping malls and other places to accelerate the spread of VR games.

However, the disadvantages of this model are also very obvious. Different experiences, income does not cover costs, and it is difficult to become the final development form of VR games.

1) Small market

At present, the development of VR game content is limited by various external factors and is in a very passive situation. Market problems can only be solved by time:

① Hardware innovation needs to wait.

Moore's Law says that every 18 months, the performance of electronic products will double or the price will be halved. Whether1August is accurate or not, with the technical iteration, the performance of electronic equipment will be improved and the price will be reduced.

Goldman Sachs counted the average selling price trends of several electronic devices (desktop computers, notebook computers, tablet computers, smart phones, LCD TVs) similar to HMD, and their respective compound annual growth rates (CAGR), and thought that HMD would have similar price reduction rules.

Goldman Sachs: HMD price reduction trend will be similar to other electronic products (released in June 2065438+06)

In fact, the Oculus Rift CV 1 released in June 20 16 was priced at $599. In March 2065438, the Oculus Rift S released by GDC 20 19 had improved performance (non-innovative) and sold for $399. It basically conforms to Moore's law. There are still few big players entering HMD development, so the technical iteration is still very slow.

Other peripherals, such as positioning devices, motion capture devices, somatosensory interaction devices, mobile solution devices, etc. There is a similar rule.

Speaking of PCs, NVIDIA estimates that in 20 16 years, only130,000 PCs in the world will be VR-ready. What percentage of them are individual users and gamers? The price threshold of HMD and PC greatly limits the market size.

② Industry standards need to wait.

The establishment of standards not only helps to purify the market, filter inferior products with overdraft industry credit, but also helps to promote the compatibility between different devices. Both software and hardware developers and users can benefit from it.

At present, there is no universally recognized VR standard in the world.

16 On April 6th, China Institute of Electronic Technology Standardization released the first self-developed standard in the field of virtual reality in China, General Specification for Head-mounted Display Devices in Virtual Reality, in which the parameters of HMD devices were defined and classified in detail. The standard is relatively loose, even lower than the knowledge achieved in the industry, and there is a lot of room for flexibility. The lower standard line actually chooses a balance between filtering inferior equipment that disrupts the market and meeting the needs of PC platforms with low configuration. Besides the hardware standards, the Committee stated that "we will also have some plans for the software and content, the basic requirements and testing methods of virtual reality application software, and the classification and evaluation specifications of virtual reality content are also our next work."

2) High investment

Compared with the requirements of ordinary games, VR games have many aspects:

1 VR games need to explore new design ideas, and the past experience is not applicable, which increases the cost of trial and error.

There is a big difference between HMDs, and the compatibility cost is high.

③ Put forward stricter requirements for game optimization. In addition to motion perception conflict, low frame rate and high delay are also important reasons for motion sickness. In traditional games, players attach great importance to the optimization of these two key indicators, especially in VR games.

In addition, there are many software factors that affect carsickness. Generally speaking, VR games have more details to consider, and the importance of details has also been significantly enlarged.

Weng Dongdong: Mechanism and Countermeasures of Motion Sickness in Virtual Reality

3) difficulty in making profits

Not just games, any product needs cost, technology, users and business model to succeed. Unfortunately, no VR game is occupied.

① Technology: As mentioned above, technology is the biggest bottleneck of VR. Moreover, the technology not only stays in HMD, but also in computing power, somatosensory simulation, 5G transmission and so on. Technology can't meet the market demand, leading to all the problems you can think of.

② Users: Only by technical iteration can the equipment be reduced in price. Only by reducing the price of equipment can there be users.

3 Cost: Without technology and market, VR games are malnourished at this stage. Which investor's father dares to put many eggs in a fragile basket?

4 Business model: Let's take a look at the existing business model and distribution channels of VR games:

A. Online distribution

B.HMD built-in

C.xianxia experience shop

D. Development outsourcing

E. In-house purchase (is there? )

F. Sharing of platform members (such as Viveport unlimited members)

Basically, those who can't make ends meet and participate in free competition don't get enough points.

Third, what do you think?

1, technology has caught the throat of the fate of the VR industry;

2. At this stage, the place where VR really creates surplus value is not in virtual products, but in VR+, just like internet plus. VR+ Office = Virtual Meeting, VR+ Real Estate = Virtual Model House, VR+ Travel = Experience History ... Investor Dad has voted with his feet. Oh, the porn theory.

All the cutting-edge technologies are from military, commercial and civilian. VR is still in the commercial growth period, and the game belongs to civilian use, so the game has to wait for VR to grow to the next stage. The experience store is a transit point for civilian use, but it is still commercial in nature. )

4. Although the game industry has sounded the charge of the VR wave, it is a pity that it cannot take the lead;

5. Before there is a major breakthrough in hardware, the scale of VR game market will basically stagnate. The problem of VR game market has always been not the problem of game market, but the problem of VR market;

6. Even so, experience in game design can be accumulated first. After all, what is strange now is the new version of the ship.