Two main points

Innovation: Because things are similar at different scales, the first curve also contains many tiny secondary S curves.

Choice: One of the secondary S curves will grow into the second curve under the influence of market choice.

Simply put, innovation+choice = the second curve.

Analogical biology is: genetic variation+natural selection = new species.

Image expression

A flower and a world:

This sentence, which is often said in Buddhism, means that if you cut into any part, you will see any red sea as a whole, and then cut into it, you may enter the blue ocean.

Three thousand weak water only takes one ladle:

There are so many tiny innovations and so many small S-curves that we can't choose all of them. In the end, you may choose one or two all in to maximize the single factor, make it bigger and stronger, and finally grow into a separate second curve.

Fractal innovation mainly expounds the dynamic relationship between the first curve and the second curve, which is a methodology to grow the second curve from the first curve.

The second curve does not fall from the sky, nor is it inherent in the mind, nor is it a nine-square layout, nor is it a diversification theory, but it grows from the tiny innovation in the first curve.

Four basic elements

Continue to refine the key points of the concept, that is, "heredity+mutation+selection+isolation", and finally form the second curve.

Heredity:

The so-called heredity means that an enterprise must have basic unchangeable elements, such as mission, vision, values, or core technical capabilities or organizational capabilities. In short, heredity is immutable.

Confucianism often says "cultivate one's morality, keep one's family in order, govern the country and level the world", in fact, this is a kind of inheritance. Because there are similarities, that is, harmony and benevolence advocated by Confucianism, this concept is similar and isomorphic at different levels of individuals, families, organizations and countries.

Change:

The so-called variation means that there must be various innovations and combinations of various elements from the bottom up, so the variation here emphasizes change. The case we went to see, from ourselves (Luo Zhenyu) to others, from Luo Ji's thinking to getting it, is actually a process of factor variation.

Inheritance plus variation refers to all kinds of innovations under the condition of overall stability.

Select:

The so-called choice is to choose at least one of the available innovative businesses, including active choice and market choice. Then we invest a lot of resources, maximize a single factor, invest all of it, and then let it grow into the whole of the second curve.

Choice, that's what we talked about in ByteDance. When I tried to make this short video, I actually made many small apps, such as Tik Tok, Watermelon and Volcano.

It was tested in different time periods, different tonality and different customer attributes. At first, the volcano data was relatively good. But later, the retention rate of Tik Tok was relatively good. Therefore, before and after the Spring Festival on 20 18, we all remember that Tik Tok's advertisements were overwhelming during that time, and all in invested heavily. As a result, Tik Tok really grew into the second curve of ByteDance, instead of volcanoes and watermelons.

Isolation:

The so-called isolation means that the innovative business should be in a certain isolation environment, including external isolation and internal isolation.

External isolation is actually similar to dislocation competition, which is the isolation of external enterprises; Internal isolation is a small internal organization similar to MVP (minimum feasible product)

Look at an isolated case. When Amazon made the kindle, Amazon's headquarters was originally in Seattle, but the kindle project was directly thrown into Silicon Valley to do this geographical isolation.

Application Scenario-Enterprise

In the enterprise scene, when enterprises do fractal innovation, they usually need to create an open and inclusive culture, that is, encourage innovation and tolerate failure. Because of the creation and innovation of quadratic S curve, it is redundant and saturated.

What does the word saturation mean? I believe that everyone will have corresponding feelings after seeing the wandering earth. To save a planetary station and send 300 teams at the same time, which one comes to save first is saturation.

Failure is a high probability event, so all failures are the price that innovation must pay for success. So usually, we should create such an atmosphere, such an environment and such a soil within the enterprise.

I want to ask you a good question here. Where is the starting point of fractal innovation?

The first curve has a line, two points and three stages, so at which stage should the force be exerted?

We believe that we should make efforts at the growth inflection point where the growth acceleration decreases. You should go all out to break the game before the break point; At the limit point, I found it was too late, just increasing the speed, and the acceleration was going to drop. That inflection point is the best area of fractal force.

Three sources of quadratic S curve

How did this quadratic S curve in fractal innovation come from?

Subsystem of the first curve

Edge demand of the first curve

Variation combination of the first curve element

Give a few cases respectively.

The situation of subsystem amplification:

In the process of Taobao doing e-commerce, payment is definitely one of the links. But it magnifies a subsystem of the whole system and forms a second curve called Alipay. This is an example of subsystem amplification. There is also logistics, which is also a subsystem of e-commerce, so it is enlarged to all. As a rookie logistics, it is also an example of subsystem enlargement.

An example of marginal demand.

Meituan group buys. In the process of group buying and arriving at the store, everyone went to have a meal. Some people may say, I just worked overtime. Can you deliver it to the office for me? Or I have something at home, can you deliver it to my home for me? In fact, this is a marginalized demand. Meituan seized such a marginal demand and enlarged it into the whole of the second curve, thus creating a new curve from the store to the home, which can be regarded as the source of a quadratic S curve of marginal demand.

A classic case of factor variation combination.

Recently, it just went on the market, and Chen Xiangdong made a platform of "learning from whom". In the 20 17 O2O tide, "Who to learn from" almost died. In this process, he grasped one of the elements, and brought 98 teachers, the best lecturers in the country, who were found on the platform to this "Avenue Classroom" directly operated by himself, to be a live double teacher, to give everyone a big lesson, and to be equipped with a counselor. As a result, it took a year and a half to achieve large-scale revenue, which was called the first profit listing of online education.

The whole company has been doing "who to learn from" for four years. In fact, it only took more than a year for the "Road Classroom" to reach the level of a listed company, with a market value of $2 billion.

6 operation steps

It goes something like this:

Disassemble some elements of the first curve,

And then make combinatorial innovation,

Iterative growth in the form of virtual group or MVP.

Find this extraordinary growth through market selection and make it an independent institution.

Maximize the single factor and strive to break through the situation as soon as possible.

Grow into an independent second curve,

Take the good future as an example to disassemble the whole operation steps.

Disassemble some elements of the first curve,

There are many elements in the teaching and training industry, and we still disassemble them according to the chaotic classic "supply and demand connection".

Supply side:

Disassemble from the main body. The biggest is English, and the second is science. In recent years, due to the reform of college entrance examination, Chinese is very popular; Recently, due to the problem of consumption upgrading, the quality category is very hot and it is a different supply.

From the perspective of teachers, it can also be divided into these categories: famous teachers, as long as there are famous teachers, students will follow; Teaching and research should add ordinary teachers; AI teacher, behind it is still a very powerful teaching and research, but it is just the idea of realizing thousands of people through AI.

Demand side:

Generally can be divided into three categories: BCG.

B: There are many training institutions. There should be nearly 400,000 training institutions in China.

C: directly facing the students,

G: the main position of education, full-time schools, public schools and education bureaus.

These three markets are all very big.

Connection end:

From the teacher-student ratio: one to one, one to n, small class, large class, their logic is not the same.

Interconnected scenes: offline scenes, online scenes,

Let's take a look at the first curve in the future, which is the piece of "learning and thinking, educating and being excellent". So what is the combination of its elements?

Science represented by mathematics, together with teaching and research, small classes and offline, is actually the combination of these supply and demand factors, and is the element of learning, thinking and cultivating excellent "first curve".

The good future is that the whole teaching and training industry has relatively Internet genes. From the beginning, they enrolled students through websites and other groups, and always wanted to replace the offline scenes in these elements of learning and thinking training with online scenes. This is a question that they have been thinking about since they started their business.

In order to realize this dream, they actually set up an online school very early. We use fractal innovation to enter the secondary S curve in this curve of online school, reduce the scale, enlarge the scale, and plunge into it to see what innovations it has in the field of "learning and thinking online school".

At first, I was doing online school, recording and broadcasting, looking for the best famous teacher and the best teaching and research, recording his most classic lectures and filling them into that CD. In theory, the editing cost is zero, as long as it is not sold, right? So the first one is recording and broadcasting.

Later, it was found that good is good, and it can also be profitable to a certain extent, but this is a small and beautiful business, and it can't do much. Because the recording and broadcasting completion rate is not good.

Keep trying. Three or four years ago, MOOCW was a large-scale online course, which was very popular. Well, try this large-scale open online course, live broadcast in large classes, and finally find that the completion rate is not good. The completion rate of large-scale open online courses for college students is only 5% to 6%.

Think about it, as primary and secondary school students, their enthusiasm and initiative for learning are far less than those of college students, and their completion rate is extremely low. This road is also impassable.

The big class live broadcast is not good. Tell you what, try the small class live broadcast. Just one teacher broadcasts live to 20 students, but the effect is ok anyway. But in the end, it did not solve the problem of reducing costs. There doesn't seem to be much difference under this line.

One of them is called the seaside team, which is independent of the "learning and thinking online school". Li Rui, the person in charge, once said that on a sunny afternoon in 20 13, Bangxin called him and another person in charge to his office and said, can we create such a model? "It has the price of online schools, the atmosphere of small classes and the one-on-one effect." This is a big problem.

The independent seaside team will try, try all kinds of fractals, and try out a "seaside double teacher" model first. After testing the water, Xueersi Online School thinks this model is good, copying and copying in an all-round way, and taking advantage of the existing advantages, so the internal equivalent of "Xueersi Online School" ate this "seaside double teacher", and then formed the whole "live broadcast of learning and thinking", which broadcasted a complete second curve of the double-teacher online school.

Later, Zhang Bangxin said, "Can we combine the advantages of online and offline, that is, let a good teacher teach 10,000 people online and 20 students in each class offline, and then provide a tutor to preview the children before class and answer questions after class, thus reinterpreting" learning "and" learning "and" teaching "and" education ".

The dual-teacher model is really amazing, in the words of Professor Shanyou. In fact, the relationship between professors and apprentices we are doing now is also a double-teacher relationship, which actually leads the development of the entire education and training industry.

Let's take a look at the dual-teacher live broadcast mode of "learning and thinking online school", which combination of elements of teaching and training industries is used.

First of all, in terms of disciplines, it first tried its best science;

In terms of teachers, it is a combination of famous teachers, teaching research and ordinary teachers;

In terms of "demand", of course, it is directly oriented to students at first, but in terms of teacher-student ratio, it is a combination of small classes and large classes;

In terms of scenes, it is also a combination of online and offline. Let's take a look at the combination of so many elements to realize the fractal iterative innovation of such a live dual-teacher mode.

In 20 18 years, the dual-teacher model runs through completely. What is the symbol of penetration? One is called completion rate and the other is called renewal rate. It is said that these two indicators have reached more than 92%, which is equal to or even exceeds the offline teaching of learning and thinking. So at this time, the single factor of a bright future is maximized. All newly-opened schools canceled face-to-face classes and changed to double-qualified classes. Learning and thinking has always said that students who don't rely on word of mouth are not respected and have never advertised before. From 20 18, a large-scale online school saturated advertising war began.

At that time, everyone went to see the elevator, and everyone went to see the saturated publicity on the website, on the bus, on the subway, and on-line advertising. As a result, the revenue showed explosive growth, reaching about 3 billion in less than two years, accounting for 17% of this revenue in the whole good future, thus establishing the second curve.

Let me tell you about it, too. Of course, the second curve should be established, but what kind of result will be achieved in the end?

I think, from the perspective of revenue, if it can reach 10% to 10 times of the first curve, it is possible to establish its second curve.

The whole future fractal innovation, it has carried out so many micro-innovations, so many combinations of various elements, and finally the link of the network school has grown into the whole second curve, and the quadratic S curve in the network school has grown into the whole of the second curve.

In fiscal year 20 19, the expansion speed will be actively controlled under the control line in the future. Good future fiscal year is from March 1 year to March 1 year, and the current fiscal year 20 19 has just ended. Concentrate on developing online business and actively control the development speed.

In terms of enrollment speed, the growth rate of online enrollment in fiscal year 20 19 was 1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 respectively, with an average of 200%.

Correspondingly, the growth rate of offline enrollment is 34.4%, 36.6%, 8%, 65,438+08%, with an average of about 20%.

Perfect tenfold growth, so in 20 18 years, the growth rate of the first curve decreased and the second curve increased tenfold, which is the perfect handover of the first curve and the second curve.

Fractal innovation exerts its strength at this growth inflection point of the first curve. Before 2008, the business of "learning and thinking for Excellence" will increase by more than 50% in the future, and then it will drop for the first time at 20 18, and then the second curve will explode at this time, so its fractal power is very good. All in, a large-scale advertising campaign, started after 20 18 was launched, and the single factor was maximized.

Use this step to disassemble, so as to review this case in the future:

Firstly, the elements are decomposed from different dimensions. Finally, it chose the "live double division" mode combining online and offline.

Second, combinatorial innovation and internal MVP. In fact, several teams are doing it at the same time, and the online school of learning and thinking is also doing it, and the independent seaside team next to it is also doing it;

Thirdly, through the test of completion rate and continuation rate, the extraordinary growth has been realized;

Fourth, the internal learning and thinking online school relies on years of accumulation to eat the team to the seaside;

Fifth, maximize the single factor and finally break through the situation.

Sixth, grow into an independent second curve.

How to deal with teams that fail in innovation?

For the seaside team, it can be said that the internal evaluation and positioning are extremely high. Those who are willing to study and think online in the whole team at the seaside will directly enter the online school of learning and thinking and become the heads of the corresponding core departments. If you don't want to go to school and think about online school, it will give you the opportunity to continue your business. For example, the Li Rui I mentioned before, he is now trying this "one-on-one live broadcast at sea" and trying MVP. He thinks it may also be promising.

How to deal with failed teams? Your attitude towards it determines how the innovation team will look at your method. If it is handled well, everyone will feel particularly good and will continue to innovate. If it is not handled well, everyone may not dare to innovate slowly, so everyone is willing to curl up in the main business of the first curve. So this is a virtuous circle and a vicious circle, a mechanism of positive feedback and negative feedback.

Here, I also want to ask you a few questions:

If you had stood in Zhang Bangxin's perspective, when your offline business was still booming, would you have started your online business at the price of 10% to 30%? This is almost subversive.

When the self-operated business is booming, will you open up your teaching and research and your double-qualification skills and empower them to small and medium-sized training institutions in the same industry?

When the extracurricular tutoring industry is still booming, will you open your skills, teaching and research to public schools, so that public schools can give full play to your skills? All the students in public schools have studied in it. Do you think you need extra-curricular tutoring?

You are Zhang Bangxin. Would you do that?

Guess what is the next second curve in the future?

I guess it may be its 2B and 2G services.

In the fractal of the first curve and the second curve, its 2B business is currently a magic school. Its 2G service is intelligent cloud. In fact, it has tried to be an MVP (minimum feasible product) and an independent organization internally. This belongs to the variation combination of this "need" element.

Through the magic pie and B-side business, we entered these sinking markets. A Good Future Up to now, there are not many study points opened by * * *, all of which are in economically developed places. It is necessary to combat this sinking market through this enabling cooperation. In fact, the listing of "Who to Learn from" and "Gaolu" mainly takes advantage of the sinking market.

So what is its breakthrough point? I think quite a few of these 400,000 primary and secondary school training institutions have reached cooperative relations, and if you want to make most of the small B institutions that you cooperate with really make money, then your growth flywheel will turn and you will break the point.

In addition, its intelligent cloud is a G-side service for the public. It first enters the weak schools in big cities, or enters the "old and poor" places, just to realize the concept of "educational balance" and "inclusive education" in the country. I think it is in these 400,000 primary and secondary schools that we have been recognized by the leaders and can get this kind of continuous procurement from the education department. At this time, it will have reached the brink of collapse.

A good thinking model can not only explain the past, but also predict the future, so we put this prediction here, the case will be constantly updated, and we can do comparative tests in the future.

Application Scenario-Personal

Let's talk about the application scenario of fractal innovation in personal growth, taking my personal case as a small explanation.

I was born in Lvliang, an old revolutionary base area, a poor county named shilou county. There are only 1 10000 people in the county.

A great change in my life, or a fractal, was when I sat in the front row like everyone else at the opening ceremony of high school. At that time, our deputy magistrate in charge of education was called Bai Pingsheng, and he mentioned this sentence when he gave a speech on this stage. He said that since the founding of the People's Republic of China, no one in shilou county has been admitted to Tsinghua, no one has been admitted to Peking University, and no one has been an envoy abroad.

Sitting under the stage, I took "being admitted to Tsinghua" as one of my tasks, and felt duty-bound. Three years of high school life plus one year of repeat study life can be said to be the goal of being admitted to Tsinghua.

It seems like a sentence, and behind it, it is very casual to grow and iterate such an experience.

So is my entrepreneurial experience. After graduation, I belong to the case of "starting a business after graduation". But this venture is actually a bit accidental.

When I graduated from graduate school in 2005, I just chose not to engage in politics and scientific research. I definitely want to start a business, but the direction of starting a business has not been decided. By chance, when I was playing tennis in our east campus, I met a senior of my student union who happened to be running there. We have known each other since 1999, but we haven't contacted each other for several years. It was a complete chance encounter.

I asked my brother, what are you doing now?

My brother said that he was doing the same thing at the summer camp.

I think summer camp is good,

After a while, he asked me, "Why don't we do it together?" I said, OK, let's do it together.

With such a seemingly accidental opportunity, I started a business. Our entrepreneurial project is called "Century Mingde", which is to study in a summer camp for primary and secondary school students. I focused on this in 13. This feeling seems accidental, but it grows out of emotion.

When Ji Mingde started his business for about ten years, we listed the New Third Board. At this time, we are faced with the problem of "the first curve and the second curve are discontinuous", and I am a little confused.

On 20 16, I went to Peking University to listen to Professor Shanyou's mid-year class. It was an accidental opportunity at that time, and I never knew which channel to get a ticket from. As a result, I was attracted by Professor Shanyou and our chaos. From class to chaos, I have been educated by this innovation.

This is really completely unplanned before, and I don't know how this kind of thing will grow, so it feels wonderful and grows iteratively. You should keep such an open, open, evolutionary and fractal mentality, and constantly welcome changes, not fixed changes. Everything is fixed. This is not the case, so we must keep the open mind of slash youth.

Course summary

What have we learned from the study of our thinking mode just now? I think these three points,

First, the main points of fractal innovation:

Inheritance is an eternal thing,

Variation is something that changes.

Choice: What kind of active choice or market choice.

Isolation: MVP (minimum feasible product) or an independent small organization gives itself room to grow. In this case, it is likely to grow into a second curve.

Second, fractal innovation is usually shaped by a cultural atmosphere, a soil and an environment in the growth of an enterprise or your personal life, and the real power of fractal in an enterprise should be what kind of practical grasp.

It can be a subsystem of the original first curve,

It can also be the edge requirement of the first curve,

It can also be a variation combination of some elements of the first curve.

Strawberry moment

You can recall the experience of the second curve, which was not carefully designed, but increased iteratively in your own life growth or entrepreneurial process.

As Steve Jobs said in his famous Stanford speech, many things you didn't notice at that time, but when you look back at history, the feeling of "dots connecting lines" is very wonderful, so please think about it seriously.

Ok, that's the end of today's thinking mode explanation. Thank you.