Since the beginning of this year, international crude oil prices have risen sharply. After breaking through 100 in February, it soared to 145.2 USD/barrel in early July (WTI, the same below). The cumulative increase of $45 per barrel, an increase of more than 45%, is staggering. What is even more surprising, however, is that the oil price began to fall in early July, and fell to 9 1. 17 USD/barrel on September 6, with a cumulative drop of 64 USD/barrel, or 44%, which was realized in just 85 days. The oscillation caused by the international oil price is obviously not over. It bottomed out in mid-September and rebounded to 1 14.37 USD/barrel on September 22, and the price per barrel rose by 23.2 USD, with a cumulative increase of 25.4%. Looking at the changes of international oil prices since this year, it is believed that this round of oil price rebound is related to the rise and fall of primary product prices caused by the rescue of the US government and the accelerated depreciation of the US dollar.
Although the American economy grew well in the second quarter, the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis is far from over, and the growing financial turmoil has brought more unfavorable factors to the global economic growth. The latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund shows that it is inevitable that global economic growth will slow down further in the second half of this year under the influence of persistent financial pressure and high product prices. Even if there is a rebound in growth, the expected economic recovery will not come soon.
According to the latest forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the global economy will grow by 3.9% this year, slightly lower than the estimated 4. 1% in July. Among them, the US economy is expected to grow by 1.3% this year, which is the same as the original forecast; The euro zone economy is expected to grow by 1.4%, which is lower than the previous forecast of 1.7%. According to the forecast of OECD, the slowdown of European economic growth is much more serious, in which the British economy barely grew in the second quarter, and it is predicted that it will shrink by 0.3% and 0.4% respectively in the third and fourth quarters, and the annual economic growth will be 1.2%. The economies of Germany, Italy and Japan have also stagnated. The OECD predicts that the overall economic growth of G7 is only 1.4%. The reduction of demand has a very obvious impact on the steel price level, and almost no one doubts the arrival of the price inflection point. According to the report of the US Department of Commerce, the annual rate of new housing starts in the United States shrank to 6.2% in August, the lowest level since 17, and the second consecutive month of decline. The demand for steel in the United States is on the decline. In August, the inventory of steel service center decreased for the first time after four consecutive months of growth, and the steel inventory reached 1 365,438+ten thousand short tons, down by 0.2% compared with the end of July. Due to the decline in demand, the shipment volume decreased by 16.8% compared with the same period of last year, down by 4.9% compared with July.
Since mid-August, the price of sea freight has dropped rapidly. By mid-September, the sea freight price from Brazil to Baoshan had dropped to US$ 48.27/ton, and the sea freight price from Western Australia to Baoshan had also dropped to US$ 16.25/ton, respectively, down by US$ 60/ton and US$ 34/ton from this year's peak, with a drop of more than 45%. The price is the lowest since last June, that is, the lowest price in recent 15 months.
From the perspective of cost factors and price reduction reasons, the decline in sea freight prices has also led to a sharp drop in the CIF price of imported iron ore. By mid-September, the average CIF price of Indian iron ore imported from Tianjin Port with a grade of 63.5% had dropped to 132.5 USD/ton, down 29.3% from the beginning of July. The obvious drop in the import price of iron ore, on the one hand, is the decrease in demand caused by sufficient domestic stocks and reduced production capacity, on the other hand, it also brings favorable factors to the upcoming iron ore price negotiations. It is said that CVRD's "unreasonable demand" for iron ore price increase of 20% was angrily rejected by China Steel Works. However, if Brazil really compromises, it seems that the difficulty is not small. After all, China still imports a large proportion of Brazilian minerals.
International scrap prices have also fallen sharply. From the change of CRU international price index, the price index of scrap steel and pig iron in the international market dropped from nearly 500 points in early August to 322 points in mid-September, with a cumulative decrease of 1, 7 1 point, with a decrease rate of 34.7%. Although the price indexes of pig iron and scrap steel are basically synchronized with the global comprehensive price index, the price of scrap steel obviously overlaps with the price trend of outstanding talents. From the perspective of cost support, it seems inevitable that the price of outstanding talents will fall further.
Second, domestic steel prices have dropped sharply, but judging from the trend of demand start-up, even if it has not bottomed out, it will not be long before the rebound trend. But obviously we can't predict the extent of the rebound. The trend of overall sharp decline in steel prices gradually formed after mid-June is expected to end at 10. The slowdown of domestic economic situation is becoming more and more obvious, but the demand for steel products is not expected to continue to shrink, so there is reason to believe that the staged rebound of prices will be realized in June 5438+ 10.
1, low alloy steel billet.
By mid-September, the price of low-alloy steel billet in Hebei has dropped to 4750 yuan/ton, which is 1000 yuan/ton, which is 17.4% lower than the peak in May. Compared with the price of 4300 yuan/ton at the beginning of this year, it is still higher than that of 450 yuan/ton. The price of billet in East China has a similar decline. Billet can best reflect the price trend of outstanding talents because of its technological characteristics. At present, the latest settlement price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group in Youcai in September is 4,600 yuan/ton and 4,750 yuan/ton respectively after the average price of wire rod decreased by 450 yuan/ton and the average price of steel bar decreased by 400 yuan/ton. So in this sense, 10 month billet price still has room to fall.
2. High-speed Q235B ordinary carbon wire.
The price of 6.5mmQ235B high-speed plain carbon steel wire rod has also experienced ups and downs. Compared with the peak of 6050 yuan/ton in the second quarter, the current price has dropped to 4700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 1350 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 22.3%. Compared with the valley value of 4340 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, there is still a price difference of 360 yuan/ton. The South China market has stabilized recently, but the North China and East China markets have shown a continuous downward trend. The settlement price policy of Hebei Iron and Steel Group in September has set the bottom line of 10 for the price trend at the end of September and the beginning of June.
3. Secondary reinforcement.
16-25mmHRB335 rebar prices have obviously experienced a painful decline range in East China. The price of secondary steel bars in Beijing market in North China dropped to 4950 yuan/ton in mid-September, which is still higher than that of 620 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, but it has dropped by 850 yuan/ton since it peaked this year, with a price drop of 14.7%. The decrease of reinforcement is smaller than that of wire rod, and the decrease is 7.6 percentage points lower than that of wire rod, mainly due to the relative shortage of wire rod resources. The trend of steel bar and wire rod is the most obvious market effect that leads to the price drop due to the decrease of demand, that is, the decrease of demand is the main reason for the price drop in the case of negative growth of steel bar and wire rod output and obvious increase of export volume in China. Blue whale steel studio predicts that there may be a wave of rising prices in June 5438+ 10, with the increase of construction sites.
3. Ordinary carbon medium plate.
The price of 20mmQ235A/B medium carbon plate decreased obviously. At present, the Guangzhou market price has dropped to 5550 yuan/ton, which is 1.250 yuan/ton lower than the peak price of 6800 yuan/ton in the second quarter, with a decrease of 18.4%. In the last 30 days, the price of medium plate in Beijing has fallen the most sharply, with a cumulative drop of 1 120 yuan/ton, almost twice that of Shanghai and Guangzhou in the same period, with a drop of 17.8%, which is 8.3 and 6.4 percentage points higher than that of Shanghai and Guangzhou respectively. It is noteworthy that the price difference between plate and wire rod and steel bar has been reduced by 150 yuan/ton, and the peak value of plate is higher than that of steel bar, wire rod 750 yuan/ton and 1000 yuan/ton respectively, while the current price difference is only 600 yuan/ton and 850 yuan/ton respectively.
4. Hot rolled coil.
The price trend of hot coil is close to steel bar and wire rod. The peak value of hot coil in Beijing is 6050 yuan/ton, which is the same as the peak value of wire rod, but the price drop time is obviously late, and the price drop range is as high as 1050 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 17.4%. Its valley value is only different from the price of steel bar by 50 yuan/ton. It is expected that the price of hot coil will still have a further downward trend in June 5438+ 10, mainly because its current price difference with wire rod is as high as 300 yuan/ton, which is somewhat high.
5. Cold rolled sheet.
The price of 1.0mm cold-rolled plate in Shanghai market dropped the most, from the peak of 7480 yuan/ton to 1380 yuan/ton, with a drop of 18.4%, which was the same as that of medium plate. The reason for the decline is the same as that of wire and bar, but the more important factor is the squeezing factor of the price of cold plate caused by the sharp decline of galvanized sheet and color coated sheet. Compared with their decline, the decline in cold plate prices is not surprising. For the market outlook, we can see that the current market price of cold-rolled plates is still higher than the price at the beginning of the year by 500 yuan/ton, and the decline of cold-rolled plates in the international market is not obvious. Although there is a decline of 5-6%, compared with the decline in the domestic market, some of them are insignificant. Therefore, Blue Whale Steel Studio believes that the pulling and supporting factors of the international market to the domestic market in the later period are still worth looking forward to.
6. galvanized sheet.
The price of 1.0mm galvanized sheet in Shanghai market has dropped 1.330 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 17.4%. The current price is 6300 yuan/ton, which is higher than the price valley at the beginning of the year by 850 yuan/ton. The high price of galvanized sheet is largely due to the periodic shortage of resources after the Wenchuan earthquake. However, the change of resource structure required by the earthquake has obviously reduced the demand for galvanized sheet, which directly led to the decline of the price of cold-rolled sheet, which can be confirmed by the trend of price difference. The peak value of galvanized sheet is higher than that of cold-rolled sheet 150 yuan/ton, and the valley value is higher than that of 200 yuan/ton, and the price difference is basically stable.
7. Color coated cardboard.
The price of color-coated plate in Shanghai market is basically the same as that of galvanized plate, and the cumulative price drops by 1.330 yuan/ton, but the drop is only 14. 1%, which is 3.3 percentage points lower than that of galvanized plate. Peak spread 1770 yuan/ton, valley value still maintains this gap.