Kenichi Ohmae's viewpoint has caused great shock among sociologists in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Some scholars in Taiwan Province Province assert that after the large-scale departure of enterprises, Taiwan Province Province will follow in the footsteps of Japanese "middle class disappearing". So, is Hong Kong doomed?
Lv Dale, a professor of sociology at the Chinese University of Hong Kong who has been studying the middle class in Hong Kong for a long time, commented on the controversial topic of "shrinking middle class in Hong Kong" with the words "incomplete recognition" in an interview with this newspaper. He said: "According to my observation, the number of middle-income families in Hong Kong has not decreased. The so-called shrinkage should mean that the ability of Hong Kong society to absorb the middle class has reached saturation point, and the channels for the upward mobility of the lower class have become narrow. From this perspective, the middle class in Hong Kong has not shrunk, but the growth rate has slowed down. "
Dr. CHAN Yan Chong, a professor of scientific management at City University of Hong Kong, also said in an interview with this newspaper: "It is a misunderstanding to say that the middle class in Hong Kong is shrinking". The reason is that there are too many people in society who consider themselves middle class, such as some young people with higher education background. But in fact, their economic income simply can't meet the standards of the middle class. There is a gap between the middle class and the real middle class in number, so there is a saying of "shrinking".
Four reasons
Block "upstream" channels
Although scholars interviewed by this newspaper believe that it is still too early to assert that the middle class in Hong Kong is shrinking, it is an indisputable fact that the class mobility in Hong Kong has begun to slow down.
Real estate and stocks are no longer the driving force.
Some people believe that the primary reason for this situation is that real estate and stocks, two big machines that create the middle class, were seriously damaged in the Asian financial turmoil. In the early 1990s, when the economy was strong, the real estate prices in Hong Kong kept rising, and many Hong Kong people were promoted to the middle-income class through property speculation. After 1997, a large number of middle-class people who bought houses at the peak of housing prices fell into negative assets due to the sharp drop in housing prices, with hundreds of thousands of households. Although the property price began to rise in September 2003, it was still only 80% of that in August 1997, and the increase was mainly concentrated in the luxury residential market. As for the stock market, after the fall of 1997 in August and the upsurge of TMT stocks in March 2000, most red chips and TMT stocks are still far from the highs of 1997 and 2000. In addition, the threshold of capital and technology required for starting a business is getting higher and higher. All this means that the era of promoting the upward mobility of citizens by rapid economic growth is gone forever.
With the increase of knowledge workers, the promotion channels become narrower.
At the same time, another way for the lower class to be promoted to the middle class-reading to change their destiny-is becoming more and more difficult. Dr. CHAN Yan Chong, a professor of science management at the City University of Hong Kong, pointed out that in the 1970s and 1990s, having a college degree meant finding a job with high salary, stability and promotion prospects, which gave many people from non-middle-class backgrounds the opportunity to join the middle class. However, with the popularization of higher education in recent years, the supply of knowledge workers has greatly increased, and the opportunities for upward mobility by knowledge have greatly decreased. Many young people with higher education have to stay in the working class. Dr. CHAN Yan Chong said: "After a period of rapid economic development (1970s and 1990s), it is normal for Hong Kong society to enter a period of slow economic growth, relatively stable social structure and increasingly institutionalized flow channels. People need not be so afraid of the so-called "shrinking middle class". "
Economic transformation hurts the middle class.
Lu Dale, a professor of sociology at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, pointed out to this newspaper that another important reason for the slowdown in the growth of the middle class in Hong Kong is that Hong Kong is facing economic transformation, which has promoted the transformation of the labor market, thus impacting the originally carefree middle class. He pointed out that at the beginning of this century, affected by the unstable macroeconomic environment, many departments streamlined their institutions or moved their enterprises to the mainland. Members of the middle class are the first to be laid off because of their high income, which has caused high costs to the operation of enterprises. At the same time, the concepts of "flexible production" and "flexible enterprise" from western industrialized countries began to prevail in Hong Kong. It requires enterprises to' slim down' and improve organizational flexibility, that is, only the core processes are retained, and other processes are solved by outsourcing or more flexible housekeeping, so that enterprises can meet the needs of different environments in a highly flexible organizational form. This trend makes the established relationship between academic education and economic returns of the middle class greatly challenged by the highly flexible household servant organization system.
A concrete manifestation of the popularity of the concept of "flexible organization" in Hong Kong is that the number of newly added managers and administrative positions is very small in recent years. By comparison, there are definitely not as many managers as 1996. "Lu Dell said:' In addition, the employment security of the middle class is also challenged by knowledge updating. In the past, when Hong Kong's manufacturing industry moved northward, low-skilled workers were often the most affected. However, with the transition of Hong Kong to the tertiary economy system, which is dominated by service industry and financial industry, some professionals and managers may be eliminated at any time even if they have many years of experience, and they can't keep up with the pace of updating their business philosophy and knowledge structure. "In the face of different pressures, people who have been promoted to the middle class still have to deal with fierce internal competition to avoid being squeezed downward, while people of the lower class are more difficult to flow upward again.
"China Opportunity" is hard to get wet by rain and dew.
It is generally believed that with the closer ties between Hong Kong's economy and emerging markets in the Mainland, the Mainland will become a better economic space for the future growth of the middle class, which will also bring new impetus to the growth of the middle class in Hong Kong. However, on the basis of long-term research and tracking, Lu Dale pointed out that not all Hong Kong people can really benefit from the "China Opportunity".
The economic integration of the two places has indeed created new employment opportunities for Hong Kong. At present, Hong Kong people's employment opportunities in the Mainland are no longer confined to manufacturing industries that have moved northward since the 1980s, but have expanded to service industries. However, there are not as many Hong Kong people engaged in finance, insurance, real estate and commercial services in the Mainland as people think. As for social and personal services, such as medical services, there are even fewer, and we have not taken advantage of the economic integration between China and Hong Kong to create new opportunities on a large scale in the Mainland. "
It can be seen that the new opportunities created by the economic integration between the Mainland and Hong Kong can only benefit individual sectors and groups, that is, people with high academic qualifications and professional qualifications prefer business services. Lu Dale believes that the introduction of CEPA will only make the future opportunity structure more inclined to the middle class with the nature of work and mobility. However, for those middle class (including medical professionals, education professionals, social and community service professionals, etc.). ) Its work organization or nature is rooted in Hong Kong society, and the so-called "China Opportunity" has basically not changed its career development space so far.
This trend may split the middle class in Hong Kong because of differences in interests and accelerate the weakening of this class. '
We should broaden our thinking and help the middle class get out of trouble.
The middle class in Hong Kong has always been an important source of government tax revenue and the mainstay of Hong Kong's economy. Therefore, how to improve the situation of the middle class and revive the confidence of Hong Kong society has aroused widespread concern and discussion from all walks of life.
A few days ago, a group called "Middle Power" conducted a survey on the middle class in Hong Kong. The results showed that more than 30% of the respondents hoped that the government would cut salaries tax in the new budget. Many politicians also called on the government to face up to the situation of the middle class and introduce specific policies to relieve their pressure, including reducing salaries tax, further extending the tax deduction period for mortgage loan interest, raising the tax deduction ceiling for personal education expenses, raising the child allowance, and trying to make the property market develop steadily and upward.
Lv Dale, an expert on middle class studies in the Department of Sociology of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, believes that helping the middle class out of trouble through tax cuts is only an equity measure, and this is by no means the "answer" that the middle class in Hong Kong wants most, because everyone knows that the government cannot cut taxes every year.
He pointed out that in the new round of economic transformation, the primary problem for the middle class and young people eager to be promoted to the middle class is to learn to equip themselves to adapt to social development. As for the SAR Government, it should take care of the interests and needs of each stratum fairly at the policy level, so that the opinions of different groups can be reflected.
Lu Dale said: "The SAR Government believes that by launching CEPA, all China people can take the economic express train. But the fact is that the government ignores the characteristics of "local" majors such as medical care, education, social and community services, and the middle class of these majors cannot share domestic opportunities. From this perspective, it is really unnecessary for the Hong Kong government to focus only on the positioning of a "financial center", but to broaden its thinking. For example, the film industry and community service majors may not have absolute advantages based on the whole country, but Hong Kong can at least start from South China, where language and customs are similar, and explore some regional cooperation in a down-to-earth manner to benefit the "local" middle class and broaden more opportunities for the younger generation to move upward. '