According to the US Defense News reported on 20th, 2020, an internal evaluation report of the Office of the US Secretary of Defense requires the US Navy to "slim down": in order to cope with the "threat of future great powers", the US Navy needs to lay off two super carriers and freeze the expansion plan of large surface warships in exchange for adding dozens of light unmanned combat ships. According to the report, if the plan is implemented, the deployment and overall planning of the US Navy for decades will be rewritten.

Make a U-turn in the direction of army building

According to the report, the internal evaluation document obtained by Defense News is part of the ongoing naval structure review report of the Pentagon. It requires the US Navy to reduce the number of aircraft carriers from the existing 1 1 to nine in exchange for the construction of 65 unmanned or light combat ships.

At the same time, the expansion of active large surface warships will stop, and they will remain between 80 and 90 (the US Navy has about 90 cruisers and destroyers), while the number of small surface warships will remain between 55 and 70 (mainly active littoral combat ships and newly built next-generation frigates).

Although the Pentagon spokesman declined to comment on the report, Defense News believes that the content of the report echoes the recent speech of US Secretary of Defense Speer: the Pentagon hopes to pay more attention to driverless technology instead of emphasizing that aircraft carriers are the core of its naval power projection.

These unmanned ships with relatively low cost can be used as consumables in conflicts and can complete tasks more cost-effectively. Speer also expressed similar ideas in an interview before. His vision for the future fleet is that the navy needs to promote the development of light warships "more actively": "They can be manned first, and then changed to unmanned at some point according to the situation or technological development."

Sputnik said in February 20201that this report is "completely different from the previous military development plan of the US military". Under the strong urging of President Trump and Congress, the US Navy began to build two new Ford-class super carriers in 20 19, and withdrew its plan to retire the Truman aircraft carrier ahead of schedule, in an effort to realize its fleet planning with 355 main warships. The American think tank Heritage Foundation called on the US Navy to need 400 ships, including 13 aircraft carriers.

It is difficult to lose weight and transform.

For the U.S. government, which always asks "Where is our aircraft carrier?", it is no small matter to lay off two aircraft carriers. "Defense News" said that considering that one aircraft carrier is changing nuclear fuel at any time and one or two aircraft carriers are being maintained in the dock, if the number of aircraft carriers owned by the US Navy is reduced from 1 1 to nine, even in the most ideal state, the actual number of aircraft carriers that can be deployed will be changed from 8-9 to 6-7, which is a whole reduction of14.

What's more, due to overuse, the actual attendance rate of American aircraft carriers is much lower than expected, leading to the "aircraft carrier window period" in many areas. Jerry Hendricks, a retired Colonel of the US Navy, said that the current aircraft carrier deployment model of the US military in the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region was developed in the 1990s, when it had 15 aircraft carriers. Due to the reduction in the number of active aircraft carriers, the plan is now stretched. If the US Navy reduces the number of aircraft carriers to nine, it will have to make new adjustments to the entire deployment plan.

Li Jie21,a naval expert from China, told the Global Times that although the US Navy still regards the super carrier as the core equipment for foreign military deterrence, it is worried about the viability of the super carrier in the face of new challenges such as anti-ship ballistic missiles, which is the fundamental reason why the US military is considering reducing the number of aircraft carriers.

According to the new distributed deployment mode proposed by the Pentagon, in order to avoid being "one pot at a time" by the opponent's advanced anti-ship missiles in the "great power confrontation", the U.S. Navy will deploy unmanned ships equipped with advanced sensors to the front line of the most intense confrontation, and the "arleigh burke" class destroyers will retreat to the second line, and the aircraft carrier formation will remain in the safer rear.

The internal documents disclosed in "Defense News" and the statement of US Secretary of Defense Speer confirm that the US military is working in this direction. The US Navy is still re-examining the planning of future aircraft carriers, including the development of small and medium-sized aircraft carriers, in order to strike a balance between the cost, survivability and deployment flexibility of aircraft carriers.

However, Li Jie believes that although the Pentagon has seen the future development trend of the navy, it is hard to say whether it can achieve transformation as expected. The final decision of US military spending is in the hands of Trump and Congress, but the latter two are more superstitious about the external deterrent effect of super aircraft carriers, insisting that the existing aircraft carriers should not shrink, and even forcing the US Navy to include the unfinished "Ford" aircraft carrier in the service list to ensure that the number of aircraft carriers will not decrease.

In order to achieve slimming transformation, the US Navy needs to convince these conservative forces. In addition, the super carrier also involves huge military interest groups, so it is very difficult.

Prepare for the intelligent unmanned fleet

Li Jie reminded that even though the transformation of the US Navy may not be smooth sailing, its efforts to develop an intelligent unmanned fleet are worthy of vigilance. "Defense News" said that the biggest change in the future planning of the US Navy comes from those small unmanned warships. Speer stressed that the US Navy needs to concentrate on integrating these unmanned technologies into its fleet.

Michael Gier Gildea, the US Naval Operations Secretary, said bluntly that the US Navy is changing from a comprehensive combat force with aircraft carriers as the main strike force to a more dispersed strike force, which can force China to expand its surveillance scale and "exhaust the strike capability of China that has severely damaged the US Navy".

For this reason, the US Navy is developing a series of unmanned surface ships, aiming at increasing the offensive power with less money and "increasing the number of targets that China's army must aim at in battle". "We must change our way of thinking and fight against powerful opponents in a decentralized way."

Li Jie said that the US Navy is developing from informationization to intelligent unmanned fleet, including surface unmanned ships, unmanned aerial vehicles and underwater unmanned submersibles. Unmanned equipment not only reduces casualties in conflicts, but also can undertake a wider range of tasks. Dealing with such an intelligent unmanned fleet means that the current tactical tactics against high-value targets such as aircraft carriers also need to be adjusted in advance.