Adjust the demand structure and enhance the pulling effect of consumption on economic development
Changing the mode of development is a major strategy put forward by the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and a fundamental measure to implement Scientific Outlook on Development. The first change in the transformation of development mode is to adjust the demand structure, adhere to the policy of expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand, and promote the transformation of economic growth from relying mainly on investment and exports to the coordinated development of consumption, investment and exports. This is aimed at the serious imbalance between consumption and investment, domestic demand and external demand in China's economic structure. In the face of the sharp decline in exports caused by the international financial crisis, it is very urgent to realize this transformation.
The low consumption rate and high investment rate of residents are prominent manifestations of the uncoordinated relationship between the main proportions of China's economy. In 2007, the consumption rate of China residents was 35.4%, which was nearly 17 percentage points lower than the historical highest level of 65,438+52% in 0985. Compared with developed countries, the difference is about 30 percentage points. Corresponding to the low consumption rate, from 2003 to 2007, the annual investment rate reached 42.4%, the highest period in history. In particular, the investment in steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum, real estate and other industries has grown too fast, resulting in overcapacity. If the consumer market cannot expand accordingly, the resulting invalid investment and bad debts of banks will inevitably increase, which will directly affect the sustained, steady and rapid economic development. The increase of trade friction, the expansion of surplus and the imbalance of international payments brought about by the sharp growth of exports year after year also affect macroeconomic stability. Over-reliance on investment and export for economic growth, low contribution rate of consumption, and a large number of idle production capacity have become the main constraints for China's sustained and rapid economic growth.
Increasing the consumption rate of residents, reducing the investment rate and enhancing the pulling effect of consumption on economic growth are the important tasks of macro-control at present. First, adjust the national income distribution structure and focus on improving the income of low-and middle-income people, especially farmers. The second is to expand the field of consumption and promote the transformation of consumption from survival to development and enjoyment. Actively cultivate new consumption hotspots to meet multi-level consumption needs. The third is to expand consumer credit and improve the social security system. Establish and improve the personal consumption credit information system and optimize the consumer credit market environment. We will speed up the reform of the education and medical and health systems and reduce the educational and medical burdens of residents. Expand the coverage of old-age insurance, industrial injury insurance and unemployment insurance, and solve the problem of transfer and connection of migrant workers' insurance accounts as soon as possible. The fourth is to adjust the investment structure and improve the consumption environment around the requirements of upgrading the consumption structure. Accelerate the construction of a modern comprehensive transportation system focusing on railways, strengthen the construction of cultural and tourism infrastructure, accelerate the construction of a new generation of Internet, and promote the integration of the Internet, communication networks and radio and television networks. Vigorously improve the penetration rate of tap water in rural areas, improve the rural power grid, speed up the construction of rural roads, and expand the financial subsidies for "home appliances going to the countryside". Fifth, promoting the coordinated development of housing market, auto market and stock market is the strategic focus of expanding consumption. The housing market and the auto market are affected by the stock market to some extent. In order to maintain the stable and healthy development of the stock market, we should strengthen the basic system construction, improve the regulation of the total supply and demand of the stock market, and avoid ups and downs. At the same time, through the stability and prosperity of the capital market to support the sustained prosperity of the housing market and the automobile market, the real estate industry and the automobile industry have become the pillar industries to promote the long-term growth of the national economy. If various measures are taken, the proportion of residents' income in GDP and the consumption rate of residents will be increased by 10 and 15 percentage points respectively in about three years, reaching 55% and 50%, which is close to the highest level since the reform and opening up 1985, which means that more than 5 trillion yuan of commodities will be converted from investment and export to residents' consumption every year. This is also an important measure and fundamental purpose of adhering to people-oriented and promoting scientific development.
Adjust the industrial structure and vigorously develop the tertiary industry
The second change of development mode is to change the situation that economic growth depends too much on the secondary industry, accelerate the development of the tertiary industry and coordinate the structure of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries. The lagging development of the tertiary industry is a prominent problem in the industrial structure. In 2008, the added value of the tertiary industry accounted for only 40. 1% of GDP, and the employees in the tertiary industry only accounted for 33.2% of the employees in the whole society, which was not only far lower than the developed countries, but also lower than the average level of developing countries. The backwardness of the tertiary industry has caused prominent employment contradictions and restricted economic development.
In the tertiary industry, there are three aspects that are seriously backward: First, the development of producer services such as R&D and logistics is lagging behind. In developed countries, a technological progress service system has been formed around scientific research and development, including intellectual property market, talent market, information market, venture capital market and technical training market, which provides all-round services for technological research and development of enterprises. Although the technology market in China is developing rapidly, it is still far from meeting the needs of enterprises and building an innovative country. At the same time, the logistics industry is backward and the level of specialization and socialization is low, which leads to higher logistics costs. In developed countries, the proportion of circulation expenses in GDP is generally less than 10%, while in China it is as high as 18%. It is more expensive to transport the same goods from Chengdu to Shanghai than from Hamburg, Germany. It has become a top priority to support and expand the logistics industry, establish a transnational and trans-regional modern logistics system, establish a number of logistics centers and develop a number of logistics enterprises. Second, the development of modern service industry lags behind. In developed countries, accounting, auditing, law, consulting, supervision, credit reporting, certification, price evaluation, bidding and other market intermediary service institutions are relatively perfect, with a large number of employees, which have replaced some functions of the government in many aspects and played an important role in standardizing market order and promoting fair competition. As a major event that aggravated the American financial crisis, Lehman Brothers, whose credit rating was A+, suddenly closed down, which was the result of lack of supervision and professional ethics of credit rating agencies. We should take this as a negative teaching material, break the superstition of foreign market intermediaries, speed up the establishment of a modern market intermediary service system, and provide quality services to domestic and foreign customers. Third, the development of community service industry lags behind. In developed countries, community service is an important field to attract labor employment. The content of community service is very extensive, including education, medical care, housekeeping, sports, fitness, psychological counseling and so on. China's community service industry has just started, many residents' service needs can not be met, and a large number of laborers are difficult to find employment. This contradiction can be solved by developing community service industry. At present, many cities have some well-run communities, and a number of outstanding community workers have emerged, which has played an important role in building a harmonious society and solving employment contradictions.
Optimize the structure of factors and promote industrial upgrading with independent innovation.
The third transformation of development mode is to realize the transformation of economic growth from mainly relying on increasing the consumption of material resources to mainly relying on scientific and technological progress, improving the quality of workers and management innovation. Faced with the impact of the international financial crisis, some regions and enterprises can go against the trend. The secret is that they pay attention to the investment in technology research and development, develop goods with independent intellectual property rights and brands, and improve their competitiveness and market share in domestic and foreign markets. For example, Shenzhen's strong development momentum is mainly due to its years of efforts to form a policy environment to encourage technology research and development, cultivate a number of high-tech enterprises, successfully realize the transformation from foreign-funded enterprises to domestic high-tech enterprises, from processing trade to general trade, and embark on a road of promoting industrial upgrading with independent innovation. Another example is that the annual R&D investment of Shenzhen Huawei Company accounts for 10% of the sales revenue, and nearly half of the company's personnel are engaged in research and development. Last year, the number of international patent applications ranked first among global enterprises, and the contracted sales increased by more than 40%. The scientific and technological resources of many cities in China are superior to those of Shenzhen, and those of many enterprises, especially large state-owned enterprises, are superior to those of Huawei. As long as we can establish a technological progress mechanism like Shenzhen and Huawei and fully stimulate the creative wisdom of technicians, we can open up new development space.
To promote independent innovation, we need to attach great importance to management and the construction of innovative talents. Management and technology are two wheels to promote economic development. According to the needs of international operation and global competition, we should strive to improve management level and innovate management system and mechanism. Schools should pay attention to cultivating innovative talents, and enterprises should establish and cultivate technical innovation teams to build a good platform for scientific and technological personnel to invent and create.
Create export demand and do everything possible to curb the decline of exports.
In the case of economic recession and reduced import demand in developed countries, we should take effective measures to stabilize and expand export demand through various channels, reverse the downward trend of exports as soon as possible, and ease the pressure of economic growth and employment.
At present, we should make use of China's abundant foreign exchange reserves and excess production capacity to create export demand through capital export. First, by expanding overseas investment in energy and resources, we will promote the export of equipment and services. Encourage large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises to "go global" and gain more exploration and development rights of energy resources overseas. Promote the export of geological exploration equipment, resource development equipment and technical services by increasing overseas investment. This is also conducive to meeting the growing demand for energy and resources in China's economic development. The second is to promote the export of related materials and services by expanding government foreign aid loans. Developing countries, especially some countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, have backward infrastructure and insufficient energy supply. If we can appropriately increase loan assistance to these countries and expand the scale of currency swap, it will play an important role in expanding exports. Third, encourage enterprises to carry out overseas processing trade and promote the export of domestic parts and raw materials. China's manufacturing industry, especially in the fields of textile and automobile, has the ability to invest and set up factories overseas. Developing processing trade through overseas investment, just as foreign businessmen developed "three subsidies" in China, will effectively boost exports. Fourth, by providing RMB loans, we will expand the import of goods from China by overseas distributors. The international financial crisis has dealt a heavy blow to foreign financial institutions, and many dealers dealing in China goods have reduced their imports due to lack of liquidity. Encouraging Chinese banks to provide RMB loans to overseas China commodity importers under the premise of controlling risks can support China's commodity exports. Fifth, by increasing the buyer's credit, expand the export of electrical equipment, construction machinery, machine tools, ships, textile equipment and other mechanical and electrical products. China's mechanical and electrical products have strong international competitiveness and obvious comparative advantages. To a certain extent, there is pressure of overcapacity in the electromechanical industry, and enterprises have the motivation to expand exports. Supporting the expansion of exports of mechanical and electrical products through buyer's credit will help alleviate the downward trend of exports.