The 2008 Olympic Games is a rare historical opportunity for Beijing, which has accelerated Beijing's economic development. This can be reflected from the changes in the relative relationship between Beijing and Shanghai's economic growth before and after the successful Olympic bid in 2000. From 1994 to 1999, Beijing's GDP growth rate was lower than that of Shanghai in a few years, but it tended to be higher than that of Shanghai from 2000 to 2006. However, what is the economic development trend of Beijing after the Olympic Games? According to the author's observation and understanding, the economic development after the Beijing Olympic Games can be summarized into five major trends.

One of the trends: sustained and rapid growth

Investment multiplier effect is the main factor to promote Beijing's economic growth in preparation for the Olympic Games. After the Olympic Games, this effect obviously no longer exists. Can Beijing's economy maintain rapid growth? The answer is yes.

First of all, after the Beijing Olympic Games, the "export" growth of domestic and international services will accelerate. First of all, China is in the stage of economic development driven by increasing returns to scale. For a long time to come, if the scarcity of primary products is kept below the productivity increase brought by increasing returns to scale, and if the wealth distribution gap is kept within the socially acceptable range, China's economy will grow steadily and continuously. Beijing is a service-oriented economy, and the above-mentioned development trend of China's economy will certainly expand the demand for Beijing services, thus driving the accelerated growth of its "output" at home and abroad; The second is driven by the multiplier effect of Olympic service output. The Olympic effect will not disappear with the closing of the Olympic Games. From the international experience, the Olympic Games left a more or less legacy to the host city, which enhanced the ability of the host city to export tourism, exhibitions, sports events and other services at home and abroad, thus promoting the growth of the host city's export trade at home and abroad about three years after the meeting. Because the Olympic Games has left Beijing with rich service capabilities, the multiplier effect of Olympic service output is more prominent.

Secondly, investment will continue to grow rapidly. After the Olympic Games, two important changes will take place in Beijing's economic construction. First, further adjust the relationship between the construction of "central city, new traffic and new town", while continuing to accelerate the construction of new traffic, comprehensively start the construction of key new towns and accelerate the pace of new town construction; Second, while continuing to focus on promoting the development of high-tech industries, financial industries and cultural and creative industries, we will further focus on promoting the development of producer services and social services based on high-end industrial functional zones and new towns, forming a "four-pole" industrial development pattern driven by high-tech industries, financial and producer services, social services and cultural and creative industries. These adjustments will strongly support the sustained and rapid growth of investment after the Olympic Games.

Third, consumption growth tends to accelerate. First, because Beijing's per capita GDP has exceeded 6,000 US dollars, and the Engel coefficient of urban and rural residents has dropped to 30%, Beijing has entered a stage of development and enjoyment consumption growth with accelerated income growth, rapid improvement of consumption capacity and rapid upgrading of consumption structure of urban and rural residents; Second, further rationalization of employment, labor relations and income distribution system is conducive to improving the income distribution structure and expanding consumption; Third, with the acceleration of social security construction and the continuous improvement of the scope and level of security, residents' consumer confidence and propensity to consume have increased; Fourth, the Olympic Games will enhance citizens' desire for development and consumption, especially for sports and fitness.

The second trend: further shift to innovation-driven

For a region, the way to gain competitive advantage is nothing more than cost strategy and differentiation strategy. Beijing's competitive advantage cannot be mainly based on low cost. On the one hand, although compared with major international cities such as new york, Tokyo and London, the prices of production factors such as labor, land and environmental services available in Beijing are relatively low, in China, Beijing is the region with the highest factor price and is at a disadvantage; On the other hand, although heavy chemical industrialization is still an important direction of national economic development, Beijing has entered the post-industrial period, and the service industry has accounted for more than 70% of all economic activities, and it is at a comparative disadvantage in using the internal economies of scale of large industrial production to obtain low costs. In this case, the main way for Beijing to gain competitive advantage is the differentiation of products and services, and the source of differentiation lies in innovation. In other words, in order to gain competitive advantage under the condition of market globalization, Beijing's economy needs further innovation drive.

The key elements of innovation drive are CSF, that is, creativity-the ability to generate new feasible ideas, speed-the speed of bringing new ideas to market, and flexibility-the ability to adapt to market changes. Beijing is the region with the strongest ability to produce new ideas in China, and it is also the region with fast marketization speed and high adaptability to market changes. The advantages of taking the road of innovation-driven and differentiated development are obvious.

In order to promote innovation-driven economic development, the Beijing Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government issued the Opinions on Strengthening Independent Innovation Ability and Building an Innovative City in 2006 and the Decision on Vigorously Promoting the Construction of a Learning City in the Capital in 2007, respectively, clearly stating that Beijing will be initially built into an innovative city and a learning capital in 20 10. These arrangements will strongly support Beijing's economy to further shift to innovation-driven after the Olympic Games.

The third trend: the service economy will reach a new level.

Since 1990s, Beijing's service industry has experienced three important leaps: 1995, the added value of service industry accounted for 50% of GDP, and Beijing initially entered the era of "service economy"; Since 2003, the added value of Beijing's service industry has surpassed all cities in China and become the largest service center in China. In 2006, the added value of Beijing's service industry accounted for 70.9% of GDP, which is equivalent to the average level of high-income countries and regions.

After the Olympic Games, five new favorable factors will push Beijing's service industry to a new level. First, the service industry has further become a new growth point of the national economy; Second, the construction of a harmonious society will give full play to the advantages of Beijing's social undertakings and make "social economy" a new bright spot in the capital economy; Third, the Olympic legacy has improved Beijing's service capabilities in tourism, sports, culture, exhibitions and so on; Fourth, Beijing's international city will begin to enter the stage of basic completion, and the headquarters economy with global control capability will further become a trend; Fifth, the Beijing Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government are working hard to formulate suggestions to promote the development of Beijing's modern service industry.

The author believes that after the Olympic Games, Beijing's service industry will reach a new level in five aspects: "reforming system, adjusting structure, optimizing layout, improving efficiency and increasing scale". Changing the system means that Beijing will gradually establish "fair competition, openness and order, and global integration" service industry rules and regulations; Adjusting the structure is to adapt to the requirements of national capitals, international cities, famous cultural cities and livable cities, and on the basis of the all-round development of the service industry, strive to promote the development of financial and productive services, cultural creativity and social services; Optimal layout is to combine the location requirements of different service industries or service value-added activities with local advantages, realize the optimal layout of urban internal service industries, and promote the coordinated development of northern and southern cities, central cities and suburbs, and urban and rural areas; Improving efficiency means improving labor productivity by improving the quality of workers, scientific service and innovation. At present, the output rate of service units in Beijing is only about 1/5 to 1/4 of the corresponding indicators in Hong Kong and Singapore in the same period. Improving labor productivity is the central task of making Beijing's service industry bigger and stronger. Scale is to further expand the absolute scale of service industry and increase the proportion of service industry in GDP.

The fourth trend: further turn to the development of dual multi-center network.

From a spatial perspective, Beijing's economy will further present a two-level multi-center network development trend.

The first is the multi-center network development pattern of Beijing economy. Beijing's 11th Five-Year Plan proposes to build Zhongguancun Science Park, Beijing Financial Street, Beijing Central Business District, Olympic Center, Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone and Shunyi Airport Economic Zone. In 2006, the added value of six high-end industrial functional zones accounted for about 38% of the city's GDP and became an important growth center to drive Beijing's economic development. According to Beijing's 11th Five-Year Plan, after the Olympic Games, Beijing will start the construction of three key new cities, namely Tongzhou, Shunyi and Yizhuang, and accelerate the development of new cities. At present, the planning of three key new towns has been completed and the preliminary work of the project is being carried out. The other eight new cities are also actively participating in the work of accelerating development. The development of the new city will certainly promote the further multi-center networking development of Beijing's economy.

Secondly, the development trend of multi-center network of capital circle economy. In the 11th Five-Year Plan, Tianjin Binhai New Area and Hebei Caofeidian Circular Economy Industrial Demonstration Zone were included in the overall strategic development layout of the country, and a comprehensive plan for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area was compiled. According to the plan, the Capital Circle will become a new international metropolitan circle with Beijing as the main core, Tianjin as the secondary core, Beijing-Langfang-Tianjin-Binhai New Area as the main axis, Beijing-Baoding-Shijiazhuang, Beijing-Tangshan-Qinhuangdao as the secondary axis, Caofeidian-Binhai New Area-Cangzhou-Huanghua Port as the coastal town concentration zone, and Zhangjiakou and Chengde as the growth poles of northern Hebei. At present, Beijing is actively participating in the construction of this international metropolis through market mechanism, cooperation mechanism, mutual assistance mechanism and support mechanism in transportation, water resources and ecology, energy, industry, tourism, science and technology, education, culture, health and market system. It can be predicted that after the Olympic Games, the economic development trend of the multi-center network capital circle with Beijing as the core will be more prominent.

The fifth trend: further transition to circular economy

With the change of growth mode, the optimization of economic structure, the progress of technology, the enhancement of the awareness of environmental protection and resource conservation in the whole society, the increasing demand for good environmental quality, and the establishment and improvement of the system and mechanism of energy saving, consumption reduction and emission reduction, Beijing's economy will further transform into a circular economy after the Olympic Games.