Recently, an authoritative media released the news that "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei will not add construction land within five years". Although it is only a news about land, many property buyers are panicked. Does this mean that fewer houses are more expensive?

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei land use planning: In principle, no new construction land will be arranged.

According to the Ministry of Land and Resources, the Ministry of Land and Resources and the National Development and Reform Commission have jointly issued the Master Plan for Coordinated Development of Land Use in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei (20 15 ~ 2020) (hereinafter referred to as the Plan).

According to the plan, the city's functions will be improved by "reducing and slimming" construction land, and no new construction land will be arranged, and the existing construction land will be encouraged to turn into ecological land. Beijing Shunyi Dongdeng 13 arable land will be classified as permanent basic farmland.

It is understood that the "Planning" delineates the reduction optimization area, the stock tapping area, the incremental control area and the moderate development zone, clarifies the land use principles and utilization orientation of each area, and encourages the stock construction land to be converted into ecological land, while the stock tapping area is not suitable for high-intensity large-scale construction. Regional construction land is mainly based on the adjustment of the structure and layout of existing construction land. Incremental control area is not suitable for large-scale development and construction, focusing on ensuring infrastructure and public service land, and controlling new construction land in the area.

In addition, the land demand for comprehensive transportation development will be guaranteed from rail transit, highway network, airport, comprehensive transportation hub and port system.

Although the policy has come out, many experts have come out to interpret it, but most of them are from the perspective of "top design" and have not solved the doubts in the hearts of buyers. Today's guide to buying a house says, what does this "no new construction land" mean? Will it affect buying a house?

First of all, what is the new construction land?

According to the policy of strengthening land control and strictly approving new construction land formulated by the Ministry of Land and Resources last year, provincial governments need to communicate with the National Development and Reform Commission when reporting the approval of project land in the State Council, and the project approval authority must also explain whether it meets the national industrial policy, planning and layout, market access standards, and whether the approval procedures are complete and compliant.

Is this policy the same as controlling new construction land in the past?

In fact, in 20 14, the Ministry of Land and Resources issued Order 6 1, which also regulated and guided the economical and intensive land use. At that time, Dong Zuoji, director of the Planning Department of the Ministry of Land and Resources, explained that the land for living and public infrastructure was not only out of this range, but also given priority, such as real estate land, and 20 14 would increase. Including megacities with a population of more than 5 million, will increase, and it is the main place to increase.

This time it can be said that there has been new progress than before. According to Shi Yulong, director of the Institute of Land Development and Regional Economy of the National Development and Reform Commission, the original land use mode was mainly low value-added industries, and the unit land output was actually low. By controlling land use, it can be more intensive, and the industry gradually moves from low-end to high-end.

And the biggest difference of this policy is that it was put forward on the basis of the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei. It should be noted that the logic of residential land control in Langfang has a long history. The Measures on Resolving the Real Estate Inventory and Promoting the Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market issued by the Hebei Provincial Government further put forward: "Strengthen the regulation of real estate around Beijing ... According to the requirements of building a world-class urban agglomeration with the capital as the core, reasonably determine the urban functional orientation, delimit the growth boundary of ecological isolation space and construction land, and optimize the land layout structure."

Then the most important issue, which is also the issue that everyone is most concerned about, comes.

Will house prices rise because of "no new construction land"?

No new construction land will inevitably lead to a sharp decline in the supply of residential land and the corresponding housing supply in the property market around Beijing. In other words, a big problem in the future of the property market around Beijing is insufficient supply.

On the one hand, the supply of residential land and housing has been greatly reduced. On the other hand, under the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the overflow population in Beijing has accelerated to the cities around Beijing. It can be predicted that under the integration of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the population growth trend of Langfang and other cities around Beijing will not change in the short to medium term.

An increase in population means an increase in housing demand. Under the contradiction between supply-side compression and demand-side growth, the supply contradiction of the property market around Beijing will intensify in the future. For example, there are few new houses in Yanjiao. In this case, excluding short-term consolidation, in the medium and long term, the growth curve of house prices must be "upward".

So, if that's the case, why did you do it?

To answer this question, we still have to talk about the rise in housing prices around Beijing. The rise in housing prices we are seeing now is actually disorderly and the consequences may be very serious.

To a certain extent, the disorderly over-investment speculation and investment around Beijing is really due to the lack of reasonable target setting and supervision by local governments. For example, in Yanjiao, developers frequently use industrial land, commercial land, scientific research land and other non-residential land to change the nature of land, so as to cash out buildings, resulting in Yanjiao becoming a veritable "sleeping city".

The stock of construction land should structurally guarantee key infrastructure and public services, and guide the rational agglomeration of population industry as the primary task at present. The formulation of the contents of the Plan is a rectification of the current inadequate supervision and crazy investment in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, especially in the surrounding areas of Beijing. It is to strengthen the control of land supply and prevent the indiscriminate enclosure in various names.

(The above answers were published on 20 16-05-05. Please refer to the actual situation for the current purchase policy. )

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