Editor/Yang Jie

Close the store, reduce the SKU, cut off three sub-brands, and the three squirrels in their prime can't run.

Recently, three squirrels released their financial reports for 20021and the first quarter of 2022. In 20021year, the operating income of three squirrels continued to decline after falling below10 billion yuan in the previous year, with a slight decrease of 0.24% to 9.8 billion yuan. However, the company's annual net profit increased by 36%, reaching 400 million yuan, the highest since listing.

However, according to the financial report, the three squirrels began to lose money in the fourth quarter of 20021year, during which they lost 3 1 10,000 yuan. In the first quarter of 2022, despite the traditional peak sales season including the Spring Festival, the company's revenue dropped by 65,438+06% year-on-year to 36,543.8 billion yuan, and its net profit was even lower than the same period of last year, only 6,543.8+06 billion yuan.

Therefore, the good profit performance of three squirrels failed to bring confidence to the secondary market. In the two trading days after the financial report was released, the share prices of the three squirrels fell continuously, with a cumulative decline of 25.0 1%, and the market value evaporated by 2.8 billion yuan in two days.

Under the pressure of performance, three ten-year-old squirrels had to change. From promoting product diversification to refocusing the nut industry, stopping the expansion of offline stores, returning from e-commerce brands to traditional distribution routes, aiming at the sinking market, the three squirrels came to an abrupt end in their running, originally aiming at "Wandian".

But can the three squirrels of "network celebrities" "crack" users outside the Fifth Ring Road?

(Photo/vision china)

Three squirrels fell into "a squirrel"

After the transcripts of the three squirrels were released, the investment group where investor Liu Ming was located instantly "exploded". "Everyone is in a bad mood. There are quarrels and swearing, and I feel good that the group is not blocked. " He said.

On June 5438- 10 last year, Liu Ming bought 45,000 shares of three squirrels at a price of 36.7 yuan. But in February of this year, Liu Ming said: "At that time, there was news in the market that the company's fourth-quarter performance might be bad, and the company delayed the release of the annual performance forecast, so I thought there might be a problem." At the end of February, Liu Ming reluctantly polished all the three squirrel stocks in his hand and held them for more than four months. He lost a total of 6.5438+0.7 million yuan. But he still feels lucky. "Fortunately, I run fast." When I threw it, the company's share price was almost that of 33 yuan, and now it has fallen directly to 20 yuan. "

As of the close of April 29th, the share price of the three squirrels was 2.2 16 yuan, with a total market value of 8.886 billion yuan, which has evaporated by 27 billion yuan compared with the peak market value of 36 billion yuan two years ago.

"There is only one of the three squirrels left." Liu Ming said with emotion.

Before 20 19, three squirrels were criticized for "increasing income without increasing profits", but since 2020, they have embarked on the road of "increasing income without increasing profits". In 2020, the net profit of three squirrels was 300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.438+0%; However, the operating income was 9.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.72%. 202 1, still failed to reverse this trend.

The revenue of the three squirrels declined, which was obviously affected by the attenuation of online dividends.

202 1, the online channels of the three squirrels are still strong, and the revenue from the third-party e-commerce platform accounts for 66% of the total revenue. However, during the reporting period, its revenue on Tmall and JD.COM e-commerce platforms declined by 22% and 12% respectively.

At that time, as the first batch of snack brands among online celebrities, three squirrels once ate all the traffic bonuses. Zhang Liaoyuan, the founder of Three Squirrels, has worked in Renshi Food, a traditional nut snack brand, for 10 years. After the arrival of the Internet era, Zhang Liaoyuan decided to start his own business. In 20 12, three squirrels were formally established, and their positioning after establishment was directed at "Internet brand".

Three squirrels were officially launched on the Tmall platform four months after their establishment. With the help of personalized brand strategy, we have created three cartoon images of squirrels full of personality charm, such as "cool, cheap and beautiful", affectionately called consumers "owners", and expanded the simple product sales relationship between the company and consumers into the description of consumer culture, thus gaining the favor of many young consumers.

In the first year of landing on the Tmall platform, three squirrels won the first place in the sales of "double 1 1" snacks. Since then, the three squirrels have been ranked first in this category for nine consecutive years, and during this period, they have achieved a sales miracle of breaking 100 million in half an hour and become a veritable snack brand "super network celebrity".

When the three squirrels are invincible in the e-commerce platform, financing is also a weakness. From 20 12 to 20 15, the company completed four rounds of financing, with a total financing amount exceeding 300 million yuan. July 20 19, as the "first share of e-commerce snacks", three squirrels closed at the daily limit of 10 after landing on GEM. In the same year, the company's revenue exceeded10 billion yuan, which was picturesque for a time.

At that time, Zhang Liaoyuan said that he had been in business for seven years, and each stage was about online "traffic" to fight for speed and time. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, users' enthusiasm for online consumption was pushed up again. The share price of three squirrels reached 89.5 yuan on May 19, 2020, with a market value of 36 billion yuan.

But in fact, during the "double 1 1" period of 20 18, the online income of the three squirrels was flat for the first time, and the growth was almost stagnant. In 20 19, the total income of three squirrels exceeded10 billion yuan, of which online income still accounted for 90%. However, in this year, the company's net profit declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 265,438+0.43%. The market generally believes that with the disappearance of e-commerce traffic dividends and the increase in online customer acquisition costs, the growth model of the three squirrels has gradually touched the ceiling.

In 2020, the annual sales revenue of three squirrel Tmall flagship stores decreased by 28% year-on-year. Therefore, in 20021year, the three squirrels did not publish the sales data of the platform flagship store, but announced the annual revenue of Tmall and JD.COM, but it was still difficult to hide the downward trend of their sales data on the two platforms.

While the online income is declining, the sales expenses of the three squirrels are increasing year by year. Among them, the platform service and promotion expenses have been high, from 400 million yuan in 20 18 to 202 11300 million yuan, and the proportion has also expanded from 27% to 64%. For a time, there was a saying in the market that "three squirrels were working for the platform".

Zhang Liaoyuan aimed at the breakthrough of offline channel expansion and product diversification of the company. During the 20 19 Tmall New Year Festival, Zhang Liaoyuan publicly announced that three squirrels will open 10000 offline stores within one year, and it is expected that the plan of "offline10000 stores" will be completed in 2022.

At the same time, since 2020, three squirrels have successively launched sub-brands such as Deer Light Blue, Iron Rooster, One Hairy Child and Hi Xiaoqi. And cut into baby food, convenience food, pet food, customized wedding gifts and other market segments. "Teacher Zhang is confident that the company can recreate a brand of10 billion, and our investors will naturally have more confidence." Liu Ming told Caijing Tianxia Weekly.

Regarding the growth of net profit, the three squirrels said that the company was guided by "profit output" during the strategic transition period, especially in the first half of last year, which brought profit growth through omni-channel cost control and supply chain efficiency improvement.

But even if the three squirrels earn more money, the continuous decline in revenue is still unacceptable to investors.

In fact, before the three squirrels announced the 20021financial report, the good shop had sounded the alarm for the market one month in advance. On March 22nd, Liangpin Store announced the 20021Annual Report, and the company suffered losses for the first time in the fourth quarter. However, unlike the "e-commerce gene" of the three squirrels, the good shop started from offline retail. "Because of the epidemic, offline business losses are excusable. I didn't expect three squirrels to focus on online channels, or lose like this. " Liu Ming said.

At the same time, three squirrels said that they had cut off three sub-brands except Xiaolan. Although the three squirrels have begun to transform from e-commerce channels to omni-channels, they are still "trapped in e-commerce".

An insider told Caijing Tianxia Weekly that the leisure and snack industry reached its peak in 20 19, except for three squirrels, good shops, Gan Yuan food, Chinese food and other enterprises. However, since then, the industry has begun to show a declining trend. Although there will be staged "retaliatory consumption" in the market in the first half of 2020, more and more players will join this field, including traditional retail brand giants such as qiaqia melon seeds and Li Tao bread, and there are also a large number of factories with their own brands in the industry. "There are almost thousands of businesses competing in each sub-category, and the homogenization of the industry is serious. If the whole industry cannot achieve product innovation, upgrading and iteration in the next 3-5 years, the whole industry is likely to continue to decline. "

The expansion of Wandian came to an abrupt end.

Three squirrels, who have been under the line, began to close the shop. In 20021year, three squirrel "feeding shops" and squirrel alliance shops closed 43 and 288 respectively, and the number of SKUs was reduced to about 200.

Among the offline channels of the three squirrels, the food store is directly operated, and the storefront is mainly located in the core business district of first-tier cities, with an average storefront area of 200 square meters. The store image is integrated with the IP design of the three squirrels, focusing on brand experience. Squirrel Alliance Store is an offline franchise store, which was officially launched in July 20 18, with an average storefront area of only 50-80 square meters.

By the end of 20021,three squirrels owned 140 food stores, achieving a total revenue of 800 million yuan, with an average annual revenue of about 5.7 million yuan per store; There are 925 small stores in the Squirrel Alliance, and the three squirrels did not disclose the total revenue of the stores. However, Caijing Tianxia noticed that the top ten stores with three squirrels' revenue of 20 19-202 1 are directly operated stores. At the same time, many offline franchisees "complain" to the outside world.

"Opening an offline store is different from opening an online store. It definitely needs more categories to meet the one-stop consumption needs of consumers, and it also helps the company to increase the customer unit price through product line extension. " The aforementioned industry analysts said.

The three squirrels also expanded their categories accordingly. "The company's SKU has been around 200 in 20 17 years, reaching nearly 800 at the highest." An employee of the three squirrels revealed to Caijing Tianxia Weekly.

However, according to a franchisee of an offline store, "the three squirrels failed to supplement the refined operation management of offline multi-category SKUs, which eventually led to great pressure on offline stores, especially franchisees."

"The prices of franchise products are generally higher than those of direct sales. Unless there are big customers or corporate group buyers, it is difficult for them to survive. " The above three squirrel employees think.

(Photo/vision china)

A franchisee vomited that he had to close the store after joining three squirrels for one year. "In addition to the impact of the epidemic, the price system of online and offline products is not perfect, which has dealt a great blow to franchisees."

According to it, because the three squirrels started online, "at least half of the 10 young consumers who enter the store will choose to open the online platform for price comparison." In addition, because there are often some marketing activities such as "full discount coupons" and "tens of billions of subsidies" on e-commerce platforms, "some may not be cheaper than stores, but they will still attract consumers. Even some single items are sold cheaper than our purchase price after the overall price reduction on the e-commerce platform. " Profitability difficulties, coupled with high store rents and human management costs, eventually franchisees can only close their stores at a loss.

At the same time, the over-expanded product category also weakened the original attributes of the three squirrels as the "first brand of nuts". How important are nuts to three squirrels? Many consumers used to think of three squirrels when they mentioned the brand of nuts. For many years, nuts have been the largest category of gross profit margin and revenue of the three squirrels, and even contributed 70% of the total revenue of the whole year at the peak.

However, in 20021year, the revenue of three squirrel nuts only increased slightly by 4.3% year-on-year to about 5 billion yuan. It is 400 million yuan less than 20 19 before the epidemic. During the reporting period, the income of the three squirrels mainly expanded product categories, such as baking, meat products and dried fruits, decreased by 0.2%, 65,438+05% and 29% respectively compared with 2065,438+09.

"Now who will think' nuts = three squirrels'?" When asked about the brand impression of three squirrels, a consumer asked.

The three squirrels are also aware of the crisis of declining brand power and the extensive expansion of offline stores in the past.

202 1 three squirrels said that in order to return to consumers' mental cognition of "taking nuts as the core", they spent over 100 million yuan on brand advertisements in the second half of this year alone, which even affected the company's short-term profit performance. At the same time, it announced a total suspension of store expansion, vigorously shut down stores that do not meet long-term positioning and poor performance, and focus on the high-quality development of high-quality stores.

This also means that Zhang Liaoyuan's original ambitious goal of "Wandian" came to an abrupt end.

Internet celebrity squirrel, can you move outside the Fifth Ring Road?

The three squirrels of "network celebrities" began to return to the traditional sales channels.

"In the future, the company will speed up the layout of the offline distribution market, rapidly promote the market coverage of cities above the county level, and promote the development of the dealer portfolio of KA channels, traditional channels, special channels and circulation approval markets." Zhang Liaoyuan said at the 20021annual performance exchange meeting.

On 202 1, 10, three squirrels made a rare appearance at Tianjin Autumn Sugar Expo, officially released their brand-new distribution strategy, and went all out to enter the offline mainstream channel. At the autumn sugar meeting, Zhang Liaoyuan put forward the goal of "5 billion in three years and 654.38+000 billion in five years". According to insiders, it is said that some dealers privately found Zhang Liaoyuan and said, "I have never seen a company achieve a scale of 10 billion, and offline distribution has not yet begun."

The three squirrels seem to have made up their minds. In the next two months, the three squirrels developed 33 products for distribution, established cooperation with nearly 300 dealer partners, and settled in famous supermarket chains such as Yonghui, Wal-Mart and RT Mart, covering nearly 300 prefecture-level cities in China.

The 20021financial report of Three Squirrels shows that during the reporting period, the new distribution business, including platform distribution and offline group buying business such as Retail Link and Meituan You Xuan, achieved an overall revenue of 6,543.806 billion yuan, up 38% year-on-year. Moreover, the gross profit margin of new distribution business reached 24.4%, which was 65,438+0.5 percentage points higher than the gross profit margin of offline retail channels of the company in 2020.

Among snack brands, good shops are mainly high-end layout, but the three squirrels who originally positioned young consumers online began to turn around and create their own "national snacks" positioning through traditional distribution channels.

However, can three squirrels really successfully break into the "five rings outside"?

If you want to build a "national brand", cost performance is indispensable. However, the three squirrels have been "secretly raising prices" in recent years. Many consumers have told Caijing Tianxia that they can't afford three squirrels, and there are many discussions about the price increase of three squirrels on social platforms.

In the face of the discussion of "price increase", the three squirrels who started by OEM still did not choose to build their own factories. Instead, it means to further reduce costs by establishing an "alliance factory" model, that is, investing in one or more production lines of the factory and cutting into the upstream supply chain. "In this way, the three squirrels can produce their own things without building a factory. The factory mainly collects processing fees and management fees." Zhu, a food industry analyst in China, believes that the alliance factory still belongs to the light asset model, while the domestic nut market is highly dependent on imports. "It is difficult to further reduce the cost."

In Zhu's view, the three squirrels that cut into the "sinking market" in the future, even if they really want to fight the price war, have little advantage compared with their competitors.

Qiaqia Food, founded on 200 1, is famous for its melon seed brand in qiaqia, and has been deeply involved in offline distributors and KA stores for more than 20 years. In 20 15, qiaqia food introduced two new flavors of melon seeds, pecans and caramel, and in 20 17, it introduced "daily nuts" in yellow bags, which officially entered the nut market. After that, qiaqia's "Nut of the Day" continued to be iteratively upgraded, and "Nut of the Day with Probiotics" and small blue packets of oatmeal with Nuts of the Day were developed.

In recent five years, the variety of edible nuts in qiaqia has maintained a continuous growth. When it is difficult for three squirrels to make a new breakthrough in nut income, the nut income of qiaqia Food increased by 44% in 202 1, and the revenue scale reached 654,380.4 billion yuan.

Brands that have also entered the nut market include Yan Jindian, I miss you, I come to Iraq, and good shops, but they have been deeply cultivated offline for many years.

Moreover, in the vast "outside the Fifth Ring Road" market, Zhang Liaoyuan himself has publicly admitted that bulk nuts currently account for half of the offline market scale of 50 billion yuan.

"So, how do three squirrels compete with the bulk market?" An industry insider who has operated offline stores in fourth-tier cities for many years told Caijing Tianxia that compared with first-tier cities, consumers outside the Fifth Ring Road generally lack brand awareness. "To put it bluntly, everyone's products are imported, and everything is similar. When choosing consumption, price is naturally the first criterion. "

In 2022, three squirrels have passed their first decade of development. Zhang Liaoyuan said with deep affection that three squirrels have reached their prime. But now, it's time for the three squirrels to embrace change.

The strategic transformation of the three squirrels almost subverted the original "online celebrity e-commerce brand" route. The company said that "the staged performance pressure is the pain of the' turning' strategy". However, after experiencing pains, whether the three squirrels can cross the "hurdle" and truly move towards the road of long-term high-quality development remains to be verified by time.