In order to fully explain this problem, we will conduct a comprehensive analysis from the specific content, release background, real estate market orientation and the impact on our people today.
Let me first talk about the specific content of this "loan restriction order" notice. This centralized loan management system will be divided into five grades, setting a specific upper limit on the proportion of real estate loans and personal housing loans of banks. The details are as follows:
That means that in the future, if banks want to meet the above requirements set by the central bank, there are only two ways to go. One is to continue to reduce the credit supply in the real estate sector, and the other is to increase the loan supply in other fields, such as small and micro enterprises, manufacturing industries and happiness industries. That is to say, the "red line" management of bank loan investment is mandatory. This is the first time in history.
Therefore, many people have to ask whether banks need to substantially rectify this "red line regulation" currently introduced. The latest data shows that most banks are within the red line, that is, some banks need to reduce their blood pressure, and the range of pressure drop is relatively small, and the most is only about 10%. For example, in the first gear, only the real estate loans of CCB and BOC were slightly overspent, and the pressure decreased by only 1.7% and 10%, as long as in the next 2-4.
However, we have to deny that this regulation requirement actually has a long-term impact on the real estate industry, which also proves the determination of the state to regulate the real estate market. Then there is another problem. Why should the state regulate real estate from the perspective of "restricting loans"? Simply analyze it and everyone will understand.
After years of development, real estate development has now taken shape. Housing enterprises get land from the government, and then use this land to mortgage bank loans to build houses. The funds for building houses will continue to be lent to banks, and the houses will be sold to buyers after they are built. They will also apply for personal housing loans from banks. In the whole process, the government has income from land sales, construction enterprises have income from building houses, housing enterprises have income from selling houses, buyers have realized their housing dreams, and banks have interest income, which seems to be beneficiaries, but in fact, in the final analysis, they are all bank money.
Everyone is happy about the rise in house prices, and everyone is the beneficiary, but it has created a growing "bubble" for the real estate market. Once this bubble is punctured, it will bring a lot of uncompleted residential flats and property depreciation. In the end, these risks will be passed on to banks without exception, which will bring financial risks such as asset deterioration, bad debts, non-performing loans and even bank failures.
Of course, the above is only an extreme possibility and the worst result, so the regulatory authorities should "digest and solve" these problems in advance, and the root of the problems is the support of bank credit, so this "loan restriction order" can be regarded as "the right medicine", that is, to achieve the purpose of "slimming" by solving the problem of bank credit investment in the future, that is, to control the "rations" of real estate.
So what impact will these policies have on our people after they are introduced? In fact, in the short term, the impact is not great. In the long run, the effect of real estate regulation will gradually appear, which will inhibit the increase of central cities, but it will have an increased impact on the trend of housing prices in other second-and third-tier cities and even counties. It is possible that house prices in many places will start to decline, and everyone needs to be cautious when investing in real estate.
Generally speaking, from the perspective of the new regulation and control regulations, the means for the state to regulate the real estate market are gradually increasing, and the direction of de-financialization is becoming more and more obvious, but it is also an important means for the state to further stabilize the real estate market and enhance the growth of other real economies. In the long run, it is undoubtedly conducive to the healthy and stable development of the real estate market in China.