First of all, let's look at the total value of real estate in the United States. According to the data of American households' net assets released by the Federal Reserve, by the end of 20 16, the total assets of American households were 108 trillion dollars, of which 26.5 trillion were real estate (including 23. 1 trillion houses), accounting for about 25% of the total assets of households.
According to the exchange rate of 6.6533, the total value of American family property is 176 trillion yuan.
Next, recalculate the total value of real estate in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Similarly, "selling North, Guangzhou and Shenzhen can now buy the whole United States!" The main algorithm of this paper, but the urbanization rate is introduced, because the real estate held by the rural population has low realized value and the total assets are relatively small.
map-matching
Take Beijing as an example. By the end of 20 16, the permanent population of Beijing was 21729,000. Suppose the urbanization rate is 90% and the urban population is 1955438+0000. At the same time, it is assumed that the per capita construction area of this part of urban population is 30 square meters (according to statistics, in 20 16 years, the per capita housing construction area of national residents is 40.8 square meters, and the per capita housing construction area of urban residents is 36.6 square meters. The per capita construction area of the four first-tier cities will be relatively small, which is based on the assumption that the per capita construction area is 30 square meters, and the new first-tier cities are calculated by 33 square meters.) The total construction area of commercial housing in Beijing is 590 million square meters. Next, multiply the total construction area of commercial housing by the average house price to get the total value of commercial housing. According to the data released by the China Housing Association, the average house price in Beijing is 62,385 yuan/square meter, and the total value of commercial housing is 36.6 trillion yuan.
Matching form
Using the same method, the total value of commercial housing in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou is 34.54 trillion yuan, 19.03 trillion yuan and 12. 1 trillion yuan respectively. In addition, in terms of non-profit organizations holding real estate, except Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the other three cities are calculated at 0.3 times (the new first-tier cities are calculated at 0.2 times). In the end, the total value of real estate in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is 140 trillion yuan. In fact, it is reasonable to calculate the value of non-residential houses in the above cities in China by 0.5 times, 0.3 times and 0.2 times according to the proportion of non-residential houses in the total assets of about/kloc-0.0% in the United States.
Under the above assumptions, the total value of real estate in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen is 140 trillion yuan (considering that the value of real estate in Guangzhou is obviously low, in fact, this figure should be larger), which is basically equivalent to the value of real estate in the whole United States.
Use the same method to calculate the total value of real estate in 15 new first-tier cities. Among them, the total real estate value of Tianjin reached 14.56 trillion yuan, and the total real estate values of Nanjing, Hangzhou, Wuhan, Chongqing, Chengdu, Suzhou and other cities all exceeded 5 trillion yuan. After comprehensive calculation, the number of new first-tier cities in 15 exceeds 80 trillion, which is basically equivalent to half of the total value of American real estate.
The above data will be different from the actual situation, but overall it is more likely to be greatly underestimated. First, the population may be less than it actually is; Second, the estimated per capita construction area may be lower than the actual (Shenzhen is an exception); Third, the average house price data may be lower than the reality.
Therefore, the conclusion that "selling the North, Guangzhou and Shenzhen can buy the whole United States and selling the new line can also buy half of the United States" can basically be confirmed.
map-matching
What needs to be mentioned here is the possibility that house prices are undervalued. For various reasons, the average house price data may underestimate the actual level of the market, which may lead to the underestimation of the real estate value data of the above cities. After all, in the past year, the housing prices in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou increased greatly (Shenzhen, which started for the first time, changed relatively little), and the housing prices in Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Zhengzhou and Hangzhou, among the new first-tier cities, increased even more dramatically, and the housing prices in many areas may have doubled in one year. Generally speaking, there is a certain lag in the statistics of the average house price, so there may still be room for upward adjustment of the above-mentioned house price data.
Let's take a look at the housing prices in the first-tier cities representing Beijing. Bian Xiao chose two properties in the Tongzhou plate of Chain Home Real Estate, one is the second new elevator plate, Du Rui International South Zone, and the other is the old residential tourist village. By comparing the recent transaction price with the transaction price of the same period last year, we can draw a very conservative conclusion that the house price in Beijing has increased by more than 20% in the past year.
The transaction price of most new elevators in Du Rui International South Zone is below 40,000, and now it is basically above 50,000. A set of 84. 19 flat two-bedroom apartment sold 3.24 million in March last year, and a set of 84.9 flat two-bedroom apartment sold 4.8 million in March this year. Last August, the average transaction price of old residential tourist villages was just over 30,000. This year, the average transaction price of similar units is basically above 40,000. The transaction price of 84 square meters of second-hand houses was 2.65 million in August last year and 3.64 million in June this year.
map-matching
If Beijing's housing prices have been "steadily increasing" in the past, then Hangzhou, a representative of the new first-tier city, can be regarded as explosive growth (in fact, according to Bian Xiao, including Chengdu, Chongqing and Wuhan, the increase in housing prices is also very alarming).
There is more conclusive evidence of the skyrocketing housing prices in Hangzhou. 20 14 The news that the house price plummeted in Hangzhou, causing people to smash the sales office, triggered a big discussion on the whole network. The main contents of price reduction are as follows: the average price of Dexin Beihai Park project is reduced from10.90 million yuan per square meter to10.58 million yuan, the average price of Tian Hong Champs Elysé es is reduced from10.72 million yuan to10.38 million yuan, and the average price of Sunshine County is reduced from10.75 million yuan.
Now let's take a look at the price level of these second-hand houses. Bian Xiao selected the second-hand housing transactions of the above-mentioned properties, as shown in the following figure. Except for the latest transaction price of Beichen Guang Zhi, which is only 24,000 yuan, the latest transaction prices of Beihai Park, Champs Elysé es and Sunshine County all exceeded 30,000 yuan. According to the comparison of the highest selling price of the website, the increase of the main property is about 50%, and the maximum increase is more than 100% compared with the lowest price.