"People are basically not injured. The gables are all gone, and very few fall into the house. "
Li Shaoqin, who is in his fifties, is a villager who escaped from Junshan Village, Qinglong Town, Qinglong County, Hebei Province. He described his experience in the 1976 Tangshan earthquake to the reporter of Science News.
1976 Tangshan earthquake, Qinglong county evacuated people in advance. The story of "1 80,000 houses collapsed without1casualties" was described by many media as "Qinglong miracle", and a small notebook of Wang, a science and technology committee of Qinglong County, was directly related to this miracle.
But Li Shaoqin said: "No one informed us of the earthquake.
Wangshouji
In 2006, on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of the Tangshan earthquake, the "Qinglong Miracle" was mentioned again. A number of media published a report entitled "Liu Zhixin, deputy magistrate of Qinglong County, Hebei Province: the county party secretary took the lead in living in an earthquake-proof shed".
This report said that on the eve of the Tangshan earthquake, the State Seismological Bureau held a national earthquake work conference in Tangshan. During the meeting, Wang Chengmin, then head of the North China Group of the State Seismological Bureau, released some recent earthquake signs in Hebei, saying that an earthquake of magnitude 6 might occur in Hebei.
Subsequently, Wang of Science and Technology Commission of Qinglong County, who attended the meeting, made a report immediately after returning to the county.
To prove the truth of the above report, Geng Qingguo, who has retired from the Seismological Bureau of China, showed the original notebook of Wang to the reporter of Science News, and recommended the reminiscence article published by Wang in China Earthquake News on July 25th, 199 1. This article mentioned this notebook:
Comrade Wang Chengmin talked about the following issues (according to my records at that time): 1. According to many earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above in the world, it shows that the world earthquakes are in the climax period; 2. According to the development trend of seismic activity, stress and geoelectric anomalies in China, we should attach great importance to Beijing, Tianjin, Tang, Bohai and Zhang areas, do a good job in security, do a good job in group monitoring and prevention, and strengthen the leadership of the party; 3. The abnormal phenomena observed by several professional earthquake teams and mass prevention points and their prediction opinions are described, and it is emphasized that earthquake prevention measures should be strengthened, organizations should be established and earthquake knowledge should be publicized vigorously in Beijing, Tianjin, Tang, Bohai and Zhang areas. Mainly in large factories, mines and rural areas, first of all, we should do a good job in housing maintenance and formulate earthquake-proof measures.
According to the aforementioned report, after listening to Wang's report, Ran Guangqi, then secretary of the county party committee, "risked leaving his post, predicted the disaster situation to the county and made good earthquake prevention arrangements".
The "Dragon Miracle" was born. Xinhua News Agency said in the news released in April 1996 and 1 1: "Qinglong County, Hebei Province, China is only 1 15 kilometers away from Tangshan City, but no one died in the Tangshan earthquake."
The "Qinglong Miracle" is also considered to be related to folk earthquake prediction. Gao Cunheng, then a teacher of Longshan Middle School in Qinglong County and the head of the earthquake prediction group, recalled in the China Earthquake News on July 25th,/kloc-0, that after hearing Wang's introduction, he found weasel and mouse activities in Beizhuanghu Village near the school on the afternoon of July 27th, and after reporting to the person in charge of the school, the school decided to inform all the teachers and students that "you are not allowed to close the doors and windows when sleeping at night.
"Not suitable for publicity"
More subtly, Mei, the former director of the Analysis and Prediction Center of the State Seismological Bureau (now China Seismological Bureau), kept silent about the "Dragon Miracle" in her book 1976 Tangshan Earthquake.
On the 20th anniversary of the Tangshan earthquake, when many media reported the "Dragon Miracle", the Seismological Bureau of China specially wrote the following article, expressing opposition to the report of "Dragon Miracle".
Geng Qingguo showed this document to the reporter of Science News: DocumentNo. Earthquake Development Office 19962 18, a report on the related situation before and after the 1976 Tangshan earthquake in Qinglong County, Hebei Province and its publicity and reporting problems.
According to the document, for a period of time, some amateurs engaged in earthquake research (including individuals from individual earthquake departments) in the society have spread the information of Qinglong County in the Tangshan earthquake 1976, which has actually had a certain degree of adverse political influence ... If some practices in Qinglong County are blindly promoted without analysis, as long as someone puts forward prediction opinions (every day), they will be released to the society for everyone. "
Therefore, the document suggests that the relevant situation in Qinglong County is "not suitable for public publicity and reporting".
Wang Chengmin's "Prediction"
In an interview with the reporter of Science News, Wang Chengmin recalled the past.
Wang Chengmin said, 1975 From April to June, he repeatedly reported to the leaders of the State Council that the earthquake situation in North China was more severe after the Haicheng earthquake, and the earthquake activity was likely to move southwest along the Yanshan Mountains. The biggest danger zone was the junction of Tangshan, Luanxian and Hebei and Liaoning.
However, the State Seismological Bureau, which has just been commended for its prediction of the Haicheng earthquake, has a major disagreement on the situation of 1976 in eastern China.
According to Wang Chengmin, most people think that judging from the historical earthquake records in North China for thousands of years, there has never been a precedent that two strong earthquakes of magnitude 7 or above occurred next to each other (within 300~500 kilometers) and successively (1~2 years). Therefore, the occurrence of Haicheng earthquake means that the earthquake situation in North China tends to ease in the near future, and the State Council No.69 document of 1974 should be closed as soon as possible, and can be revoked gradually.
Wang Chengmin said that there are also a few people who believe that after the Haicheng earthquake, many earthquake precursors have not subsided, but have undergone more drastic changes. New anomalies have also appeared in Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area. Therefore, the occurrence of Haicheng earthquake means that the recent earthquake situation in North China is more severe. Document No.69 not only cannot be withdrawn, but also should be publicized to prepare for another strong earthquake.
"From July 20 to 22, 1976, due to the emergency, our department decided that the State Seismological Bureau would directly issue the" Investigation Form of Short-term and Immediate Mutation Anomalies "to the stations of various groups." Wang Chengmin said, "On July 23, I repeatedly called on the leaders of the Seismological Bureau to hold a meeting to study the earthquake situation, but the leaders ignored it. I had to post the first poster in my life at the door of Director Liu's house to attract the attention of the leaders."
Wang recorded a more detailed speech in his notes. 1976 July 15 to 20, Wang Chengmin's speech at the collective strategy and prevention conference held in Tangshan "clearly pointed out that there are prominent anomalies in Tangshan and Luanxian, and an earthquake of magnitude 5~6 may occur in the near future (July 22 to August 5), and a bigger earthquake may occur in the second half of the year."
Where did the data of "1.8 million rooms" come from?
It is obviously a miracle that 6.5438+0.8 million houses collapsed and were damaged in Tangshan earthquake, and no one was killed or injured. When interviewed by the reporter of Science News in Xiaolugou Village and Sanjianfang Village of Zushan Town, Louzhangzi Township, Qinglong Town, it was found that some elderly villagers, like Li Shaoqin of the mountain village, did not hear the news of the prediction before the 1976 Tangshan earthquake. Only a few old walls collapsed in the village and no casualties were heard.
"Anyway, men and women are streaking out in the middle of the night." A villager said.
Wang Chengmin believes that it is not objective for some people to obliterate the results of earthquake prediction in Qinglong County.
However, he mentioned that 6,543,800 houses in Qinglong County were seriously damaged, which was counted by the county. The source of this figure is the statistics of disaster relief subsidies, and it is not excluded that the county government falsely reports the figures in order to win credit or get more subsidies.
In fact, the total population of Qinglong County (population 530,000 in 2006) has just passed 500,000. 1976 Although there is no population data of Qinglong County, it is conceivable that the population of Qinglong County will be less than 500,000 32 years ago due to the large Manchu population and the fact that ethnic minorities do not implement the family planning policy. Therefore, some people think that "6.5438+0.8 million rooms" may have far exceeded the total number of houses in Qinglong County that year.
Regarding the statement that some villagers didn't receive the forecast notice, Wang Chengmin said that there may be some villages that didn't get the notice. This is because an earthquake of magnitude 6 was predicted at that time, and Ran Guangqi only advised everyone to prevent earthquakes, but did not force them.
Xia Xinyu, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of California, Berkeley, published an article on the New Threads website, saying that because there was no foreshock in the Tangshan earthquake, although there were a wide range of medium-and long-term predictions and there might be a wide range of anomalies, it was still impossible to determine the epicenter and time. Moreover, as can be seen from the Tangshan earthquake, superstitions on "mass prevention and mass treatment" and imminent earthquake prediction have been formed at this time, and the knowledge of earthquake prevention has not been popularized to the public in dangerous areas after the medium-term prediction. Of course, this also has a lot to do with the social and political background at that time.
"In fact, Qinglong is farther from the epicenter than Tianjin, and its intensity is lower than Tianjin. The so-called 6.5438+0.8 million houses collapsed, all based on rumors. " Xia Xinyu said, "If Qinglong must be evacuated, it can only show that the epicenter was never accurate."
Villager Li Shaoqin still doesn't think that earthquakes can be successfully predicted. "Isn't the Sichuan' 5.12' earthquake predicted?"
Document 69
Before 1976 Haicheng earthquake with M = 7.3 and 1976 Tangshan earthquake with M = 7.8, the Report on the Earthquake Situation in North China and Bohai Sea (document No.69 issued by the General Office of the State Council on June 29th, 974) was of great significance. The document clearly points out that earthquakes of magnitude 5-6 may occur in the Beijing-Tianjin region, the northern Bohai Sea, Handan and Anyang regions at the junction of Shanxi, Hebei and Henan, Linfen basin in Shanxi, Linyi region in Shandong and the central Yellow Sea this year and next. (From Shandong Earthquake Prevention and Disaster Reduction Information Network)