Shortly after the release of the financial report, with the opening of the US stock market, Wei Lai once again became a witness of history. The emergency interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve failed to stop the sharp downward trend of the stock market. After the opening, the S&P 500 index of the US stock market plunged 7% again, triggering the fuse mechanism and suspending trading for 15 minutes. At the same time, the Dow Jones index fell to 7.82%, and the Nasdaq index fell by more than 6.3%. It is reported that the fuse is also the fifth fuse in the history of US stocks, and the fourth fuse in 10 days.
Affected by this, Weilai Automobile did not usher in the expected "recovery" of the stock price after the release of the financial report. On the contrary, its share price plummeted 16.2 1% to close at $2.43 per share, and its total market value shrank to $2.558 billion, which shows that it is bleak. At the same time, we must admit that the sharp drop of Weilai's share price is also closely related to the unexpected Q4 and annual financial report.
Although it sells well, it still loses money.
First of all, it is undeniable that it is surprising to measure Weilai's annual performance only from sales volume. The financial report shows that 20,565 new cars were delivered in 20 19, an increase of 82. 1% year-on-year. In the last fourth quarter, the company delivered a total of 8,224 new cars, an increase of 765,438+0.4% over the previous quarter. Subsequently, Weilai's total revenue in the fourth quarter was 2.848 billion yuan, an increase of 55. 1% from the previous quarter. In 20 19, the total income reached 7.825 billion yuan, up 58.0% year-on-year.
However, the substantial increase in sales and revenue has not fundamentally improved the status quo of its huge losses. According to the financial report data, Weilai's adjusted cumulative net loss in the fourth quarter reached 28130,000 yuan, an increase of 14.8% from the previous quarter. The adjusted net loss of 20 19 reached 10962 million yuan, an increase of 22.4% over the same period of last year. In other words, Weilai is experiencing the embarrassing situation of "selling well, but still losing money".
More tragically, its current "selling well" situation is likely to be broken in the coming quarter of Q/KLOC-0 in 2020. Due to the new coronary artery epidemic, Weilai expects to deliver only 3,400-3,600 new cars in Q 1 quarter in 2020, of which about 1, 100- 1 3,300 will be delivered in March, which is about 56% lower than that in Q4 of 20 19.
At the same time, the total income decreased by about 55.3~57.6% compared with Q4 of 20 19, and by about 2 1.9~25.9% compared with Q 1 20/9. Therefore, the double decline in quarterly sales and revenue has become a situation that Weilai must face.
In the conference call after the release of the financial report, Li Bin, CEO of Weilai Automobile, also admitted that with the outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic, Weilai delivered 2,305 new cars in June 5438+10 and February 2020 1 day, which was lower than the target set before the outbreak. At the same time, the quarterly delivery of Weilai Q/KLOC-0 was also affected by the production capacity. Although its Hefei factory has resumed work, the output in February and March is still affected by Hubei supply chain, and the delivery quantity supported by inventory is very limited.
From this point of view, the production capacity problem has also become the main "pain point" of Weilai at this stage. However, Weilai seems to have some "cards" on how to ensure the rapid increase of future sales. According to Li Bin, in the past 30 days, the number of large orders was close to 2,200, with an average of 70 vehicles per day. Previously, Weilai had accumulated more than 5,000 orders for production.
At this time, these orders have become a kind of "comfort" for Li Bin and Weilai, especially in the extremely difficult beginning of 2020, and continue to inject a little confidence into their efforts to survive.
Cash flow is becoming more and more urgent.
Weilai's "lack of money" has long been recognized as a "secret" in the whole industry, but with the publication of this financial report, this phenomenon seems to be getting worse. As of 20 19, 12 and 3 1, all cash and cash equivalents of Weilai, including restricted monetary funds and short-term investments, are only10.56 million yuan. In the previous Q3, according to the financial report, its cash flow was still 654.38+0.9 billion yuan.
The cash balance of about 654.38 billion yuan maintains the daily operation and production of such a huge car company. In the face of the precarious "capital chain" that may break at any time, Wei Lai seems to be standing on the edge of life and death. The financial report also wrote that "the remaining cash can't support the working capital and liquidity needed for the next 12 months of continuous operation." In other words, Weilai needs continuous external financing if it wants to "continue its life".
Moreover, due to various uncertain factors such as sudden capital flow, the latest evaluation of the company's business prospects by the management changed to "whether the company has the ability to continue to operate, and there are still major doubts." Once the evaluation was published, it undoubtedly deepened many people's worries and doubts about Weilai's future. The sharp drop in its share price after the opening may also be related to its increasingly uncertain operating conditions.
Fortunately, however, in the face of such difficulties, Weilai has completed three financing projects in a row within 30 days since 2020, and all of them are pure financial investors, totaling 435 million US dollars. Behind all these phenomena, there is no doubt that a signal is being released: Weilai, a domestic emerging car company, is undoubtedly recognized and sought after by the capital market at present, although the future is still full of uncertainties.
At the same time, on February 25th, Weilai signed a framework agreement with Hefei Municipal Government worth 654.38 billion yuan. According to the agreement, Hefei will provide resources and financing support for Weilai to set up its headquarters in China and its long-term development. For this project, Li Bin also said in a conference call that the final agreement is expected to be signed before the end of April.
Therefore, for Wei, although its cash flow is increasingly tight, with a series of external financing gradually in place, it may still be able to maintain the company's operation for some time. However, how long can such "palliative" measures last? No one can guarantee it. Therefore, in order to survive, Wei Lai still has to find another way.
Gross profit margin turned positive this year?
In fact, the best way for Wei Lai to survive is to prove that he has the ability of "self-hematopoiesis". As for the form, it is also the best carrier for the gross profit margin to turn from negative to positive. According to the financial report data, its gross profit margin in the fourth quarter was only -8.9%, which was still negative, although it was improved from the previous quarter. The gross profit margin of the whole 20 19 Weilai finally stayed at-15.3%, down 10. 1% year-on-year. Excluding the cost impact caused by battery recall in the middle of last year, the gross profit margin is still-10.9%, while its gross profit margin in 20 18 years is -5.3%.
The negative gross profit margin for two consecutive years is undoubtedly a huge blow to Wei. Because even if Weilai can deliver more new cars at present, it is still a loss in essence. Such "futility" has greatly dragged down its mind. Therefore, it is urgent to change the status quo, and turning the gross profit margin into a positive one has become the most important goal of Weilai at present, and there is no one.
Therefore, in the conference call after the release of the financial report, Li Bin said, "Improving the gross profit margin will be Weilai? 2020? One of the core goals in 2008, and through the optimization of supply chain, the continuous reduction of battery pack cost, the increase of production scale and the reduction of average vehicle manufacturing cost brought by management optimization, we are confident that the gross profit margin will turn positive in the second quarter and reach the goal of double digits by the end of the year. "
In Q2, the gross profit margin turned positive and reached double digits at the end of the year. Full of confidence, Li Bin officially set the most important flag for Weilai in 2020. As for whether it can be realized? I just want to say that if it can't be realized, Weilai will only accelerate the speed of rolling in the deep again.
As for some measures mentioned by Li Bin to improve the gross profit margin, what we can see at present is the power battery sector. Weilai will launch a brand-new 100 degree battery pack, and will also launch a battery pack using CTP technology. The latter can reduce the battery cost by 20% compared with Q4 of 20 19 without affecting the vehicle life.
At the same time, according to Li Bin, as a good partner of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., this year Weilai and CATL? The relationship will be closer. The price can be better and better, and it will definitely be cheaper than the same period last year. In terms of payment term, Weilai also won better terms in CATL.
With the continuous optimization of the supply chain, Weilai expects to reduce other costs by at least 65,438+00%. As for the overall manufacturing cost, according to its forecast, if the production capacity of Hefei factory can reach 4000 vehicles/month, it will be a more economical benefit point. If this goal can be maintained in the future, with the substantial increase in output, the overall manufacturing cost will be greatly reduced by about 30%.
Then, based on 4,000 vehicles per month, in order to achieve economic benefits in 2020, Weilai must sell more than 48,000 new cars, which is more than double the annual sales in 20 19, and the difficulty can be imagined.
In addition, in order to ensure the gross profit margin from negative to positive, Weilai can't avoid the upcoming new car EC6, the construction of sales channels and the further optimization of personnel structure. As for Weilai EC6, as a derivative coupe SUV of ES6, the most obvious improvement compared with the latter is that Weilai took the bicycle gross profit margin as an extremely important indicator before listing.
Because many parts are made of ES6***, the cost of Q4 battery can be reduced by 20% by this year, so Weilai is full of confidence in the gross profit margin of EC6 after listing. However, as a niche model, in addition to the gross profit margin, the issue that EC6 needs to consider is the Tesla model. Y's face-to-face competition, what are its chances of winning? How will the sales volume be guaranteed?
In terms of sales channels, according to Wei Lai, in order to control costs, Nio will hardly increase after entering 2020. The number of houses has turned to "spread" Nio. Is it more cost-effective? Space. In terms of personnel structure, the number of employees in the company has decreased from 1 10,000 at the beginning of last year to about 7,000 at present. But for a new car company, the team size of 7,000 people is still cumbersome and huge, so it is expected that "reasonable layoffs" will remain the main theme after Weilai.
In fact, according to the financial report, Weilai's cost reduction, efficiency improvement and continuous slimming have achieved certain results throughout Q4. Sales and management expenses in this quarter were 65.438+54.6 million yuan, down 20.5% year-on-year. R&D expenditure was 654.38+0.26 billion yuan, down 32.3% year-on-year. After entering the brand-new year, Weilai began to be more "harsh" in controlling its own expenses, so it is estimated that the net loss this quarter will be about 35% lower than that in Q4 last year.
In short, in any case, from the formal establishment of 20 14 to 2020, Wei Lai, who is six years old, still hasn't experienced the real taste of "making money". Sometimes we always say, "Please don't expect a four-year-old child to earn money to support his family." What about the two-year-old child? The only difference between the two is that the former has achieved greater losses than the latter?
To tell the truth, my feelings for Wei Lai are very complicated. Perhaps it is because it makes us see the hope of high-end independent brands; Perhaps it is because it has become one of the few opponents of Tesla's strong entry into China; Maybe because? NIO？ See so many loyal users on Day. So I always hope that such a controversial and love-hate brand can "live" in this cruel automobile industry.
At present, the reality is still skinny, and the future is still difficult. I hope that Weilai Automobile can really turn losses from "gross profit margin turning positive".
Text/Cui
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This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.