First, the status quo

Live broadcast is very dominant at present, but it is not enough to replace offline shopping guide. It is expected that the live broadcast will have an adjustment period in the next six months due to users' aesthetic fatigue. At present, the problem of selling fakes live and high return rate still exists. The head anchor has high bargaining power, and many merchants also clear goods at a loss, and merchants will not use it as the main means of bringing goods.

After this period of intensive marketing, some users have begun to have aesthetic fatigue, and the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television has also begun to regulate the live broadcast. It is inevitable that there will be some shocks in the industry in the future. However, this does not prevent the live broadcast from becoming the norm in the future and becoming a marketing tool based on promotion.

Now it seems that live broadcast can be regarded as an effective ROI-oriented advertising method. The live broadcast itself will undergo further evolution. VR, AI and robots are all future trends, which can be combined with live broadcast to continuously improve the user experience.

Second, the future development trend

In 20021year, the number of live webcast users, live e-commerce users and short video users in China exceeded 560 million, 300 million and 800 million respectively. At that time, the live e-commerce market was close to one trillion, and the penetration rate exceeded 8%.

According to the relevant data of Ali Research Institute, the annual growth rate of GMV of live broadcast e-commerce is about 90%, and the overall penetration rate is still below 15%, so there is still much room for growth in the future. Live e-commerce has entered a stage of deep development, and it is expected that the space penetration rate of the live e-commerce industry will reach about 90% in the future.