Jin Canrong: Generally speaking, the impact of this incident is limited. This kind of conflict has been going on several times. There was a conflict in June+10 last year, but the impact was relatively small. Of course, North Korea suffered a lot that time. This year is the Cheonan incident, and South Korea has suffered a lot. South Korea made a big noise and mobilized international public opinion. This time, North Korea needs some international influence. Because we know,165438+1October 20th, an American expert announced his recent visit to the DPRK, and the DPRK told him that there were 2,000 uranium enrichment machines in operation. This action, like firing a cannon today, is intended to attract some international attention. They don't really want to make it big, but they want the United States to negotiate with him. I don't think the United States and South Korea will make a big fuss at present, and the South Korean side will be very angry, but at present, South Korea and the United States are not too big.
Moderator: Do you think that the United States and South Korea are incapable of launching large-scale retaliation against North Korea? Why is this?
Jin Canrong: At present, the domestic situation in the United States is very bad, and the economic situation is very bad. The United States cannot invest a lot of resources in East Asia. This is an internal situation as well as an external situation. The focus of global contradictions is still how to solve the problem of withdrawing troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. In addition, the Iranian issue is also ahead. In East Asia, the attitude of the United States towards North Korea is very contradictory. It is both antagonistic and private, and its policy toward North Korea is not blindly antagonistic. Therefore, the United States has neither the ability nor his line is to suppress North Korea blindly.
The Korean side is mainly capable. Although the economy looks good, among the 30 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, relying on the China market, the recovery is ok, but it is still fragile; Politically, there is a great contradiction between Lee Myung-bak's conservative government and the opposition party in Congress, so South Korea is not unified internally. In addition, if there is a peninsula confrontation, South Korea will lose a lot. For South Korea, its weakness lies in the economy. The GDP of Seoul, the capital of South Korea, accounts for half of the country, and the population of Seoul accounts for a quarter of the country. Such an economic center is so fragile that North Korean artillery can reach Seoul, not to mention North Korean missiles. North Korea's missiles+artillery+special forces are enough to set South Korea's economy back for 20 years, so for South Korea, security fragility and economic fragility make it impossible to make substantive moves against North Korea. Therefore, North Korea's goal is limited, attracting attention, but it doesn't want to be big.
Moderator: That is to say, although this conflict looks very worrying, it is actually not very dangerous, is it?
Jin Canrong said: Of course, there are certain dangers. North Korea hopes to use these actions to reveal the technology of enriching uranium, and then make cannons to attract the attention of the United States and South Korea. It is particularly eager for the United States to pay attention to him. However, if the United States ignores him in the future, North Korea risks escalating and really setting the United States on fire, and the United States will try to clean up North Korea. Of course, we don't want to reach that level. We hope that all parties will exercise restraint, talk and stabilize the situation through negotiations.
Moderator: OK, thanks to Professor Jin. Peace is good for both sides, and fighting is bad for both sides. We hope that North Korea, South Korea and relevant parties will exercise restraint and restore stability on the Korean Peninsula as soon as possible.
Good evening everyone. Welcome to Global Sight. The news channel is broadcasting live. I'm Lao Chunyan.
Although it has been two days since the exchange of fire between the DPRK and the ROK on the 23rd, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is still very tense. Just after North Korea's shelling incident on the afternoon of 23rd, North Korea's MIG -23 and South Korea's F- 16 fighters almost broke out in air combat. Today, there are still thousands of cannons on the Korean border. At the same time, the South Korean government has sent more troops to the western waters, and the US-South Korea military exercise will begin immediately in three days. It can be said that the Korean peninsula is still on the brink of war. The international community's attention to this incident is also increasing. Let's learn about the positions of all parties through a short film and have a look together.
(Play short film)
Comments:
On the 24th, the South Korean government announced that it would send more troops to the western waters of the Korean Peninsula, continue to hold military exercises near the disputed waters, and prepare to hold joint military exercises with the United States. On the same day, North Korea accused South Korea of taking a series of measures to lead the situation to the brink of war.
North Korea issued a statement on the 25th, claiming that the United States was partly responsible for the artillery battle on Yeonpyeong Island in North Korea, and accused the United States of illegally delineating the maritime boundary line on the Korean Peninsula after the Korean War, which led to a dispute between the DPRK and the ROK. A spokesman for the DPRK Foreign Ministry said in Pyongyang on the 24th that the military action taken by the DPRK against South Korea's recent shelling of its territorial waters was a self-defense measure. The spokesman said that the United States and some international organizations have unprincipled accused North Korea of protecting South Korea, which is tantamount to adding fuel to the fire. North Korea cherishes peace and stability on the peninsula and shows superhuman restraint on the current situation, but as the guardian of justice, the muzzle of the North Korean army is still open.
On the morning of 25th, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke by phone with South Korean Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Kim Sung-hwan. The two sides discussed the response plan for the exchange of fire ceremony on Yeonpyeong Island between the DPRK and the ROK, expressed concern about North Korea's shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, and agreed to close coordination between the two countries.
Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said in a telephone conversation with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak that it is very important for the international community to put pressure on North Korea in unison and confirmed the close alliance among Japan, the United States and South Korea.
On the 23rd, an official of the Russian Foreign Ministry called on both sides to calm down and avoid further escalation.
Commenting: Korean conflict: Although the smoke is scattered, the prospect is still unknown.
Lao Chunyan:
Two guests came to our studio today: one is Mr. Park Jianyi, a researcher at the Asia-Pacific Institute of China Academy of Social Sciences. Welcome; The other is our special commentator, Mr Song Xiaojun. Welcome to visit.
Let's look at Premier Wen's position first. Premier Wen said: "China has always been committed to maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and opposes any military provocation. At present, in the face of the severe and complicated situation, all parties concerned should exercise maximum restraint. The international community should also do more to help ease tensions. Restarting the Six-Party Talks is the fundamental way to maintain the stability of the Korean Peninsula and realize the denuclearization of the Peninsula. " Excuse me, Mr. Park, what do you think of the position and proposition of the China government on this issue?
Expert opinion: China calls for a shift from military confrontation to political dialogue.
Park Jianyi, a researcher at the Asia-Pacific Institute of China Academy of Social Sciences:
This is a statement made by our high-level officials after the statement made by our spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has already caused a certain reaction in South Korea. My own understanding is that the first one is mainly aimed at the current shelling incident, and military confrontation should turn to political dialogue. The last sentence has something to do with the uranium enrichment in North Korea mentioned a few days ago. Only by relying on the framework of the six-party talks can we fundamentally solve this problem, and the two are linked.
Lao Chunyan:
We have also seen the State Council's latest statement that China has the ability to influence North Korea. How to interpret this subtext of the United States?
Gun Il Park:
Of course, when the United States says this, its position is different from that of South Korea, and the United States may look at it more lightly. First of all, South Korea, the United States and Japan are helpless to North Korea. There's nothing they can do except this military threat, but he also knows that this thing can't solve the problem. What should we do? Let China out, but it has a different idea. From the perspective of the United States, I think it may think more. In other words, on the whole regional issue, like other places around China, the United States has bigger plans. This is a concrete US-China relationship that we often talk about now.
Lao Chunyan:
Is this a hot issue in China? How to deal with it?
Expert opinion: Korea, the United States and Japan can do nothing, and I am responsible for international justice.
Gun Il Park:
Now I don't think China should take this job first, and it's not because of China. As I have just seen, it is precisely because of the so-called northern boundary drawn by the United States after the Korean armistice.
Lao Chunyan:
Problems left over from history.
Gun Il Park:
This situation has lasted for more than 60 years. This matter should be solved by the United States, not China.
Lao Chunyan:
Then three days later, on the 28th, the US-South Korea military exercise will begin. This time, George? The aircraft carrier Washington stormed into the Yellow Sea. Although this US-South Korea military exercise is said to be held at 1 10 km south of Yeonpyeong Island, and it is not in the disputed waters between the DPRK and the ROK, will it affect the situation?
Song Xiaojun Special Commentator:
I think it will definitely aggravate the unstable situation on the Korean peninsula. In fact, on the 20th, American nuclear scientist Heck came back to testify in Congress that North Korea showed him centrifuges. On this issue, North Korea actually sent a message, hoping that there would be an exchange between the United States and the DPRK before the six-party talks began. In fact, after North Korea conducted its first nuclear test in June 5438 +2006 10, the two sides had exchanges and signed a series of documents, and even the United States paid $2.5 million to blow up cooling towers in neighboring countries. Going through this procedure again, on the contrary, there is actually a chance to ease in this process. However, after the accidental gun battle between the two sides, the United States was very determined. Many American media reported that Obama was called at 3 o'clock in the middle of the night and was very angry. He immediately began to send these things to the aircraft carrier. I think what the United States has done is actually not conducive to the solution of the Korean Peninsula issue, but will aggravate such a tense situation on the Korean Peninsula.
Commenting: Will the United States accuse the military of playing hide-and-seek?
Lao Chunyan:
It's not just George this time? Washington is here, and there is a magazine in America called Wired. It is reported that there is a Jimmy in America. The attack nuclear submarine Carter will also come, and it is said that this submarine has particularly sensitive ears and has the nickname of "underwater spy".
Song Xiaojun:
That's right.
Lao Chunyan:
What kind of submarine is it?
Song Xiaojun:
This submarine is not in the battle sequence of the US Navy. It is managed by the National Security Agency. It is the third "sea wolf" class. Of course, this submarine is very expensive and may be the most expensive attack nuclear submarine in the United States. After modification, it is more than 3000 tons more than the original "sea wolf" class. Specially used to eavesdrop on submarine cables, the United States has always done so. For example, during the Cold War, the United States in the Sea of Okhotsk, kamchatka peninsula monitored the information of the Soviet Northern Fleet and the Pacific Fleet, and at the same time in the "9? 1 1 ",the United States also used nuclear submarines to eavesdrop on the submarine cable from the United Arab Emirates to Qatar and arrested bin Laden. This time, an officer of the US Naval Academy wrote in his blog, Jimmy? Carter has arrived in North Korea and released a micro drone to observe the artillery battle between the two sides. After the release of this information, I think it is also very unfavorable to ease a situation on the Korean peninsula.
Lao Chunyan:
Let's take a look at the reaction in Korea. The latest news today is that South Korean Defense Minister Kim Dae-jung has announced his resignation, and President Lee Myung-bak has also taken over his resignation. Why did you quit? It should be said that after the exchange of fire between the DPRK and the ROK, the pressure on the Minister of National Defense was very great, because many people in South Korea, including members of parliament, began to question the performance of the Korean army in this exchange of fire, which can be summarized in four words, that is, "slacking off." I think South Korea's "Central Daily News" also summed up the accusations or doubts of members of Congress about the army into four questions. Let's see: The first question is why it took 13 minutes to respond. To put it simply, this is why you called late. Mr. Park?
Expert opinion: when the shell hits, avoid shooting and stop before fighting back.
Gun Il Park:
According to Han Jun's statement and our little analysis, when the North Korean artillery comes, they should first avoid it. This is not brave. Shells flew by. I entered the bunker and underground cave, where there was a breakthrough. At this time, I came out again. According to him, the gun was not aimed at North Korea.
Lao Chunyan:
It is said that it is southwest, so it needs to be adjusted.
Gun Il Park:
Yes, to the southwest He said so. I doubt it. Put down the gun again, then load the shell and aim again. He said 13 minutes is fast enough.
Lao Chunyan:
Let me ask Mr. Song, it should be said that South Korea is conducting shelling training in Yeonpyeong Island and other places. Should he also foresee the possibility that North Korea might fire? Should he have a plan?
Song Xiaojun:
I think there should be a plan, but when it comes to the K-9 self-propelled gun, it should be said that it is really advanced and the export effect is not bad, but it is a bit complicated to operate. It may have followed the procedure, and there was confusion in the middle, that is, shelling North Korea made it panic.
Lao Chunyan:
There is another problem, because one of the six K-9 guns said that the barrel was broken and the other one was out of order, so there was a question in South Korea, saying why two of the six guns could not be fired?
Song Xiaojun:
It's just that the combat readiness is not good As I said before, the gun is really good. It was designed by North Korea itself, imitating the American M 109 gun, but it was designed by itself. For example, the engines and turrets are licensed in Germany, including the modular medicine for artillery shells. Very good, but the operation is very complicated and requires high security conditions. This gun can't wait to be divided into factories. It's these six guns. Therefore, it is natural for South Korea to conduct high-density military exercises. After the Cheonan incident, its combat readiness was like this. In other words, they are not ready yet, but in order to satisfy Lee Myung-bak, they have to save face or do something. I don't think it takes into account combat readiness conditions.
Expert opinion: The South Korean military is once again unaware of the situation.
Gun Il Park:
There is new news about what I just said today. I just said six doors, but actually three doors were put into use. This is today's news.
Lao Chunyan:
Is this the latest news?
Gun Il Park:
The military corrected it again and moved it three times, but the more I listened to it, the more unreasonable it became. Because this place, the most tense place on the Korean peninsula, will not be so relaxed, there must be internal problems before the Minister of National Defense will step down.
Lao Chunyan:
Let's look at the second question. Simply put, it is less. This question is why North Korea fired more than 170 shells, while South Korea only fired more than 80. It is said that South Korea has rules of engagement. If North Korea attacks with artillery, South Korea should fight back with twice as many shells. What does this mean?
Expert's opinion: the double opposition aims to contain it categorically.
Gun Il Park:
According to South Korea, these two kinds of guns are different. North Korea is a rocket launcher modified by the Soviet Union, which can be fired at one time. You can shoot a lot in a short time, but the lethality is not that great. A shell from South Korea killed everyone within 50 meters, that's right. Therefore, despite the small number of launches, the lethality is relatively large.
In addition, if you contact the thing mentioned above, there are only three guns to shoot, and you can't shoot that many in the same time.
Lao Chunyan:
When did this comparison principle begin?
Song Xiaojun:
The command of the South Korean army is still in the hands of the United States. According to the revision of the Lee Myung-bak government, it will not be handed over until 20 15. I want to add something to what I just said. Mr. Park just said that if there is news, we can use three shots. In fact, the ammunition carried by the artillery itself has an ammunition base, that is, it is carried by itself in the car. It is a self-propelled gun, a bit like a tank, that is, a K-9 self-propelled gun. It carries about 30 rounds of ammunition, and 80 rounds with three guns is almost the same. It is an ammunition depot. The ammunition in the back will be transported from the ammunition truck again, but is it disturbed by the North Korean artillery? A gun can shoot more than 30 shells.
Lao Chunyan:
On the whole, it may not be so well prepared.
Gun Il Park:
Moreover, the South Korean military sent a telegram to North Korea after the fight, saying that it would stop fighting, and then it stopped fighting.
Lao Chunyan:
Now there is a third question, which is simply three words. Why didn't you call? Korean fighter planes F- 15 and F- 16 were launched at that time, but why didn't they attack the coastal artillery base of North Korea at that time? What is the secret here?
Gun Il Park:
I suspect this may be the rules of engagement. I also attacked from there with shells, and I also attacked from there with planes. This kind of engagement is almost equal, and the tools used are the same, but the counterattack should be doubled. This is a rule of engagement.
Lao Chunyan:
This code of engagement has a long history, but I read the latest news today. South Korea held an emergency security meeting today, saying that this code of engagement should be completely revised. How to interpret it?
Expert opinion: unilaterally change the rules of the game and increase the number of military relations between the DPRK and the ROK.
Gun Il Park:
I don't know what he will change, by hook or by crook. He played with guns and I bombed with planes. This may happen, and the result is quite serious, because it has been more than 60 years since the armistice, and everyone has played like this and is familiar with the rules of the game. I won't discuss it with you now. I will unilaterally change the rules of the game. In this case, the military relations between the two sides may become more tense and add more variables.
Lao Chunyan:
Let's look at the fourth question. Why is the alert status "Jindaogou 1"? At present, South Korea's warning system is more complicated. In addition to the "Jindao Dog" series 12345, there is also a series called DEFCON series. The English full name of this DEFCON series is DEFCON readiness condition, which is probably translated into Chinese as the defense readiness state, and it is also 65438+.
Expert's opinion: the multi-level alert under the armistice mechanism shows that the military situation on the peninsula is complex.
Song Xiaojun:
Treasure Island Dog is actually level three. It seems that the level of "Treasure Island Dog" has started now. The second thing you mentioned just now, * * *, is level five. But I think this thing is because the United States United Nations Command and the South Korean army have no joint command, or there is no staff headquarters. Everything was ordered by the US military. It is precisely because the US military prevented the Korean army from using excessive force in different emergencies and dragged the United States in, so it was said that it was cut very finely and its actions were clarified. In fact, Roh Moo-hyun wanted to get rid of this thing when he was around, which also shows that the Korean army has no autonomy. Under the leadership of the U.S. military, the prescribed actions of the Korean army are very scattered, which are actually the eight menu-like things we just talked about.
Gun Il Park:
Just now, these two early warning systems can think so. Just now, I said that DEFCON is in the Korea-US Joint Command, which is under the control of the United States. Let's start with "Jindao Dog". "Jindo Dog" is a Korean special dog. Not in the world, but in South Korea. When it is divided into one or two, you can think that this is the maximum that the Korean army can do. You can look at it this way. In other words, it has finished the game and has reached the first level. If it plays next, it must be DEFCON.
Lao Chunyan:
At present, the command of the war still belongs to the US military. When DEFCON reaches a certain level, can the US military use this command of war?
Gun Il Park:
Rising, you will enter a state of defense. DEFCON is divided into several parts, and finally it is really a knife and a gun.
Lao Chunyan:
After reading these four questions, let's take a look at the situation in Korea. Now the voice of moving the capital is rising again. It is said that the artillery range of North Korea can completely cover Seoul, South Korea. In this respect, Teacher Song may know more about weapons, because Seoul is only more than 40 kilometers away from the current military demarcation line between South Korea and North Korea. Can it be completely covered?
Song Xiaojun:
Yes, of course, 170 or 240 guns have a range of about 50 kilometers. In addition, it has a large number of hidden rocks. Hidden rocks smashed through the floor and then exploded, destroying the structure. 170 artillery is probably like this, but there are many reefs, so it should be said that the city will be broken quickly.
The destruction of the city itself does not mean that it will be completely destroyed. Once the city is destroyed, it will cause great panic. It also involves that South Korea is a very hot economy, and many people are concentrated in Seoul. This is the fear of war. In fact, South Korea is far less than North Korea, which is a soldier's physique.
Lao Chunyan:
"Korea Daily" used a long article to analyze the power of North Korea's long-range artillery. The article said that North Korea has more than 350 artillery pieces aimed at Seoul and its vicinity, and North Korea can fire more than 50,000 shells a day. In theory, the whole of Seoul will be covered by North Korea's firepower. In addition, like this time, it is said that the shells fired by North Korea at Yeonpyeong Island are thermobaric shells that can penetrate concrete. Does this speculation make sense?
Song Xiaojun:
I think North Korea started with the 130 shore gun, which was made by the Soviet Union. Generally, we kill deflagration bombs, that is, not incendiary bombs, but kill, explode and burn together. It's usually this kind of bomb, and it's old-fashioned and loaded with magazines. I don't think I really understand those bombs I just mentioned.
Lao Chunyan:
What we said today is very professional and military.
We have an advanced advertisement, "Global Sight", which will continue later.
Commenting: Will South Korea accuse the military of playing hide-and-seek?
Moderator Lao Chunyan:
We just said that after the exchange of fire between the DPRK and the ROK, the voice of South Korea's move to the capital rose again. What does Mr. Park think of this problem?
Expert opinion: moving the capital is not only related to military security, but also to missile strength.
Gun Il Park:
South Korea has said that it has been a long time since it moved its capital, and now it is a bit of adding fuel to the fire, but it must not be thought that it is because of this. No, we are now called Seoul, formerly known as Hancheng, and the capital is 1392. The former capital of North Korea was called South Korea, and now it is called Kaesong, which is the capital of South Korea. 1392 A coup took place. After its capital is there, it is called Korea. More than 600 years have passed. Later, when I arrived in park chung-hee, I first proposed to move the capital in the 1970s. It was really because of military security. Later, when I mentioned it again in the 1980s and 1990s, it was not. First of all, the economic development in the region is unbalanced, and a large number of people are concentrated in the surrounding areas such as Seoul, with 50 million people.
"Hot potato" and "walking a tightrope" were used by the Financial Times on the 27th to describe the challenges brought by the tension on the Korean Peninsula to China. The article writes that Premier China will fly to Seoul on 28th to attend the China-South Korea-Japan summit, and China will be forced to take a stand on the North Korean issue. According to the article, the ties between China and North Korea have been described as "as close as lips and teeth". In recent years, with the problems of the North Korean regime becoming more and more obvious, Beijing has turned to two strategic reasons to maintain its support for North Korea. First, it wants a buffer zone between China's border and South Korea. Secondly, it hopes to avoid the chaos caused by the collapse of the North Korean regime. However, this kind of "tightrope walking" behavior is becoming more and more difficult.
Although the West has suggested that northern China should not be regarded as a province in the south, officials and public opinion in the United States and South Korea often regard China as an effective way to suppress and punish North Korea and put pressure on China over the Cheonan incident. CNN reported on 26th that China is expected to issue a statement about the Cheonan in the next few days. Reuters speculated that it might send a signal to adjust its position. However, the Associated Press said on the 27th that there was no indication that China would criticize North Korea.
South Korea's Chosun Ilbo even made a choice for China in an article entitled "China's Choice" on 25th. The article believes that, in any case, Beijing's future on the Korean peninsula is standing with South Korea. The article said that if Beijing really wants to ensure its future position on the Korean Peninsula, it is wise to cooperate with Seoul now.
What would China do if the United States intervened and occupied Korea after the Korean War?
Reward score: 0 | Solution time: 2010-6-121:54 | Questioner: Lao Nayong Piaorou 2.
Supplement to the question:
Will it be strongly condemned?
Best answer
No.
China will send troops ~~!
China won't wait for the United States to occupy South Korea before sending troops ~ ~ As soon as the United States starts, China will intervene ~!
First, China will not tolerate any unilateral act that undermines the status quo on the peninsula. This has greatly threatened the interests of China. You see, South Korea and North Korea are both rogue countries, and it is ok to divide them into two hooligans, if they merge into one big hooligan. China's borders are bound to pose an extreme threat.
Second, China will not let the United States intervene, but the south will unify the north, so that China can be close to the American garrison area.
Third, China and North Korea also have the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between China and North Korea, which is still in force. It said that when one side is attacked jointly by one country or several countries, the other side should try its best to give military and other assistance.
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