Compared with him, we don't have to live to be 89 years old to witness the unprecedented changes in this century.

Are there any eggs under the nest? At this moment, the whole world is hot and cold like this, and the grass is green.

As for why the U.S. stock market melted down three times in such a short time, and what kind of influence it will bring to the whole financial market, financial practitioners have done a lot of interpretations, and Bian Xiao doesn't understand it. Anyway, it is enough to know that he is a witness of history. After all, this is the first time in so many years.

However, if we put the automobile industry in the current background, it is hard to say how happy the future will be.

First of all, the price of crude oil has now fallen below $30/barrel. According to calculation, this price is cheaper than mineral water. The overall economy is sluggish and demand is sluggish, and the price of crude oil is estimated to hover at this price. Oil prices have fallen, and demand has decreased. What about electric cars? The technology was not very mature. If there is no sense of urgency brought by the oil crisis, where is the driving force for the development of electric vehicles?

After all, electric vehicle companies only account for a small share, and the bigger crisis is the car giants who look too big to fail. The scene in front of me seems like deja vu 12 years ago.

In 2008, the global financial crisis triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States brought a landslide and tsunami-like impact to all walks of life, which was also a devastating blow to the automobile industry. Under the financial crisis, GM and Chrysler went bankrupt one after another, while Ford shifted its focus to the Asia-Pacific region, especially China, to avoid falling into the same state. In the following years, with the help of the blowout development of China automobile market, Ford's joint venture brand had very good data in China. Detroit, once the representative of American manufacturing industry and the crown jewel, also declared bankruptcy, and it is still a famous "rust zone".

Not only in the United States, but also under the impact of the financial crisis in 2008, Toyota became the world's largest automobile company with the help of the bankruptcy of its peers. However, the 2008 annual report showed that it also lost $4.4 billion that year, which was the first loss of Toyota since 1950. In 2009, 93 Japanese auto parts enterprises closed down, 3.4 times that of 2008.

The financial crisis in 2008 hit the automobile industry hard. So, will it happen this time?

Now, it seems that this situation is likely to happen again, and the situation may be more serious.

After 2008, China has a huge automobile consumption market to pay for multinational automobile enterprises. Since 2009, the domestic automobile market has made great progress. From 8.79 million vehicles in 2008 to 28.88 million vehicles in 20 17, 10 has developed rapidly.

In this process, American, German and Japanese cars have always occupied the vanguard position of domestic sales, and various multinational car companies have earned a lot of money.

By the end of 20 19, the number of civil vehicles in China reached 2610.5 million. While the quantity is increasing, the operating profit of enterprises is declining. In 20 19, the operating income of the automobile manufacturing industry was 80,846.7 billion yuan, down1.8% from the previous year; Operating cost was 6,826,543.8+0.94 billion yuan, down 65,438+0.4% year-on-year; The total profit was 508.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.9%.

By 2020, everyone hopes to improve, but unfortunately, the impact of the epidemic has brought the entire automobile market to a standstill. In June, 2020, the total sales volume of passenger cars in China was 6,543.8+0.6 million, and in February, it plummeted to 2,654.38+0.7 million, down 87.5%, a record low.

With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the domestic auto market will definitely pick up in the future, but to what extent? In the current global situation, how many car companies can persist?

As early as many years ago, many people in the automobile industry called for a substantial integration of domestic car companies and a reduction in the number of car companies. In 2020, it will be a year to witness history; This year, it is estimated that the life of most car companies will be even more difficult, which may speed up the integration of domestic car companies, and a sharp reshuffle of the auto market is already in sight.

This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.