Human resource planning is a dynamic forecasting and decision-making process of enterprise personnel flow, which plays a leading and coordinating role in human resource management. The purpose of human resource planning is to predict the demand and possible supply of human resources in enterprises and ensure that enterprises can obtain qualified personnel at the specified time and post. Realize the development strategy of the enterprise and the personal interests of employees.
The management of human resources is different from the management of other resources in enterprises. On the one hand, such resources are not always available. On the other hand, changes in technology and social environment will put forward new requirements for work content and personnel. This requires human resources planning to be forward-looking. Timely and accurate, to ensure that enterprises get enough qualified personnel to achieve their production and business objectives. Human resource planning should analyze the changes in the external environment of enterprises in advance and accurately grasp the status of existing employees in enterprises. Understand its advantages and potential, and make full use of it; Analyze the human resource needs of enterprises in the ever-changing environment, and formulate necessary policies and measures to meet these needs. Successful human resource planning can establish the strategic decision of recruitment and development and coordinate the whole human resource management activities by grasping the possibility of existing and future labor composition. Therefore, human resource planning is an important connecting factor between strategy and operation.
Human resource planning method
There are two methods of human resource planning: quantitative method and qualitative method.
Quantitative method, also known as "top-down" method, is a statistical and mathematical method from the perspective of management, which is mostly adopted by theorists and professional human resource planners. Quantification treats employees as numbers, so that according to gender. Age, skills, tenure, work level, salary level and other indicators. Divide employees into different groups.
The focus of this method is to predict the shortage of human resources. Surplus and career development trend, its purpose is to make the supply and demand of personnel meet the development goals of enterprises.
Qualitative method, also known as "bottom-up" method. It interests every employee from the perspective of employees. Ability and desire are combined with the current and future needs of enterprises. Trained. Human resource managers engaged in consulting and management development use this method. The focus of this method is to evaluate the performance and promotion possibility of employees, manage and develop their career, and achieve the goal of fully developing and utilizing their potential.
It is worth emphasizing that the traditional enterprise personnel planning emphasizes quantitative analysis and solving "hard" problems, and its management foundation is mainly the "work research" theory put forward by Taylor, who is known as the father of scientific management. Taylor studies the whole process of employees completing tasks, emphasizing the careful recording and analysis of their actions and behaviors, and on this basis, predicts the supply and demand of personnel. The weakness of Taylor system is that it focuses on the interests of managers from the perspective of management, without considering the creativity and initiative of employees, which makes employees work in a forced environment and is not conducive to the development of employees' potential.
Human resource planning challenges this "carrot and stick" method of "work research" mainly controlled by management. At present, human resource planning regards people as a kind of resource, recognizes that "hard" methods should be considered while solving problems, and advocates qualitative methods to analyze and predict employees' demand and supply, that is, considering employees' creativity and innovative activities. The influence of flexibility on the dynamic supply and demand of human resources. Therefore, in addition to the traditional quantitative analysis, qualitative analysis should also be used to predict the demand of human resources, so as to understand the factors behind the current situation and future assumptions from employees and obtain the corresponding "soft" data.
As far as the ideal human resource planning method is concerned, quantitative and qualitative methods should be combined. Because quantitative and qualitative methods can complement each other and provide more complete information for human resource planning. At the same time, the combination of the two can also combine human resource management professionals and operators to achieve the purpose of brainstorming.
When planning human resources, it is necessary to determine the number and type of personnel needed to achieve organizational goals, which requires collecting and analyzing all kinds of information to predict the effective supply and future demand of human resources. After determining the type and quantity of required personnel, the human resources manager can start to make strategic plans and take various measures to obtain the required human resources. Human resource planning procedures are as follows:
1. Human resource planning
2. Force resource demand forecast
3. Forecast of human resource supply
4. Balance between supply and demand of human resources
5. Human resources policies and measures
(A) human resource demand forecast
Human resource demand forecasting includes short-term and medium-and long-term forecasting.
1. Short-term forecasting method
The method of maintaining the status quo is a simple quantitative analysis method for forecasting personnel demand, which assumes that the current supply and personnel combination are applicable to the whole forecasting period, that is, the proportion of personnel remains unchanged throughout the forecasting period. In this case, the plan only means taking measures to fill the vacancies caused by the promotion or transfer of some personnel. Another form of maintaining the status quo method is the distribution ratio method. The first is the personnel ratio method. For example, if the ratio of managers to producers was L: 20 in the past, that is, 1 manager managed 20 producers, then if it is predicted that 300 producers will be needed in the future, 15 managers will need to be added accordingly. The second is the ratio of production units to staffing. For example, if each production worker can produce 500 units of products every day, the ratio is 1:500. In the case of constant labor productivity, if an enterprise wants to increase 50,000 units of products every day, it will increase 100 workers.
Unit forecast method Unit forecast is a bottom-up method combining quantitative and qualitative methods, which requires lower-level managers to forecast the personnel demand of the units under their jurisdiction in the next forecast period, and then summarize the forecast results of each unit to get the total demand. Unit prediction methods can be standardized and non-standardized. Standardized unit forecasting requires the manager or supervisor of each unit to fill out a questionnaire. The content of the questionnaire involves the nature, requirements and quantity of future job vacancies, and whether these vacancies can be supplemented by training or job transfer or whether external recruitment is needed. The non-standardized method requires the manager or supervisor of each unit to report the number of new employees needed to complete all the work. This method is simple but subjective, and the data provided may not be accurate.
2. Long-term forecasting method
Delphi method Delphi method is also called expert prediction method. When making medium and long-term planning. We must make clear the medium and long-term development direction, scale and trend of the enterprise. This requires experts to comprehensively analyze the changes in technology, economy, law and social environment and put forward their own conclusions. Delphi method can comprehensively analyze various factors affecting the future development direction and personnel demand of enterprises. Through the questionnaire survey, we can get the independent judgment opinions of various experts on related issues.
Multi-scheme method Multi-scheme method refers to the comprehensive analysis of various influencing factors to predict the personnel demand in each specific environment. For example, the personnel demand of enterprises is mainly influenced by the economic environment, the strength of competitors and technological changes, so different combinations of these three factors form different environmental conditions. Using various schemes can predict the personnel demand in each corresponding environment, which is beneficial for enterprises to formulate corresponding policies and measures according to the personnel demand in different environmental conditions.
(B) human resources supply forecast
After predicting the demand of human resources, we should also predict the supply of human resources, that is, estimate the number and types of available personnel in the future. When forecasting the supply of human resources, we should carefully evaluate the current situation of employees in enterprises and their flow patterns, that is, turnover rate, transfer rate and promotion rate.
1.
When forecasting the supply of human resources in the future, the first thing to be clear is the characteristics of internal personnel: age, level, quality, qualifications, experience and skills. It is necessary to collect and store information about development potential, promotion, career goals and training plans adopted. Skill file is an effective tool for forecasting personnel supply. It contains information about everyone's skills, abilities, knowledge and experience. The sources of this information are job analysis, performance evaluation, education and training records, etc. Skill files can be used not only for human resource planning, but also for determining the transfer, promotion and dismissal of personnel.
2. Personnel flow analysis.
To predict the future supply of human resources, we should not only consider the current supply state, but also consider the flow mode of personnel within the organization, that is, the flow of personnel. Personnel flow usually takes the following forms: death, disability, retirement, resignation, internal transfer, etc. To plan human resources, we need to know the turnover mode and turnover rate, including turnover rate, transfer rate and promotion rate, which can be calculated by stochastic model. The turnover rate of employees in an enterprise, that is, the ratio of employees who have resigned to the total number of employees in a certain period, is obtained by the following formula: the average number of employees who have resigned in that year/the number of employees * 100%.
(3) Balance of Supply and Demand After knowing the supply and demand of personnel, we will compare them to determine the net demand of enterprises for personnel in a certain period in the forecast period, that is, the difference between the forecast demand value and the supply value.
When balancing the supply and demand of personnel, it is necessary to determine not only the net demand of the whole enterprise, but also the net demand of each position, because in the case of balance between total demand and total supply, there may be a shortage of personnel in some positions. While others are overstaffed. At the same time, when balancing the supply and demand of personnel, it is necessary to compare the demand for personnel skills in personnel shortage positions with the skills of the remaining personnel in the remaining positions, so as to take corresponding policies and measures to solve the problem of surplus and shortage in further human resources planning. For example, if the skills of the two are similar, the remaining personnel can be adjusted to positions with shortage of personnel.
Human resource planning policies and measures
After forecasting the demand and supply of human resources, human resource managers should formulate practical human resources policies and measures according to the forecast results to deal with the expected surplus or shortage of human resources.
1. Policies and measures of human resource planning in the case of shortage of human resources.
If the result of the forecast is a shortage of human resources, there are two main methods: using existing personnel and recruiting personnel from outside the organization. The methods of using existing personnel include: transferring some personnel to positions with shortage of personnel; Train some personnel and promote them to positions with shortage of personnel; Encourage employees to work overtime; Improve labor productivity, etc. Improving labor productivity is a feasible method. In order to improve the labor productivity of employees, the following measures can be taken, such as providing employees with salary increases and economic incentives; Improve employees' work skills so that they can produce more products or reduce labor costs in less working time; Encourage employees to provide suggestions and measures, redesign work procedures and methods, and improve output; Use efficient machines or equipment, etc.
Enterprises can also recruit new employees from outside to solve the problem of insufficient staff. Recruiting new employees from outside is affected by the labor market situation. If the types of labor needed are surplus in the labor market, it is easy to recruit. On the contrary, if similar personnel are in short supply in the labor market, it will be much more difficult to recruit.
Whether an enterprise can successfully acquire the needed talents depends on the comprehensive development of its labor market and its own human resources policy. For example, even if the demand for personnel required by enterprises is in short supply in the labor market, it will be very attractive if enterprises have strong economic strength and are willing to pay salaries higher than the market level to recruit the required personnel.
2. Human resource planning policies and measures in the case of surplus human resources.
In the case of overstaffing, there are three ways to solve the problem: resettlement, permanent layoffs and reducing labor costs.
If the remaining personnel in the enterprise are only local. Resettlement can be adopted to solve the problem of overstaffing, that is, when some positions are overstaffed and others are short of staff, surplus personnel can be placed in positions that need personnel. However, the prerequisite for resettlement is that the remaining personnel must have the skills and knowledge needed for new jobs. Therefore, resettlement needs early planning and training first. Human resource planning requires human resource managers of enterprises to manage human resources of enterprises by means of planning, training and deployment.
Permanent layoffs are another way to solve the problem of overstaffing. However, it should be noted that even in western market economy countries, this approach is very cautious, because it not only involves the interests of employees and their families, but also has an impact on the whole society. This method can only be adopted if the enterprise suffers serious losses in operation, production is unsustainable, or production cannot be resumed. Before layoffs, enterprises will inform employees of their business status and difficulties, and try their best to find new jobs for the remaining employees. Layoffs can only be made if it is really impossible to resettle within the enterprise.
The third way to solve the problem of overstaffing is to reduce labor costs. Including temporary dismissal. Reduce working hours. Work sharing and lower wages, etc. These measures are usually adopted by enterprises in western market economy countries. The advantage of these methods is that when it is predicted that there will be redundant employees in enterprises, they are not simply laid off, but a buffer space is left for enterprises and employees to overcome the difficulties together. If employees don't want to keep their jobs inadequate, the current situation of low wages can voluntarily find another job, avoiding the oscillation that will be pushed to the society immediately.