So, what kind of thinking can this black swan give to enterprises?
1, leverage is attractive and deadly. Small businesses are more flexible and easy to turn around. In fact, it is also a way of lying on the spot. But only if the enterprise is not overwhelmed by debt. Netease's human nature column tells a story about Li Ge in Wuhan South China market. Before the Spring Festival, he hoarded 2 million seafood and kept it in water. China's southern market was closed, and this $2 million undoubtedly hit Shui Piao. He said that if he stopped doing business for the rest of his life, he would work for his relatives to pay back the money. That's a peddler, too. If we hadn't hoarded so many goods for the Spring Festival, we might have lost less and had a greater chance of making a comeback.
2. The crying child has milk to eat. Talk about difficulties through various channels and you will always get feedback. No, not long after Siebel's voice, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank took the initiative to provide financial support and gave great discounts on interest rates. Although capital is always a cost, with capital, you can survive and have opportunities in the future. In view of the existing scale of Xibei and the active voice of the chairman, this is undoubtedly a very good marketing, and the resources in the future will be better.
3. Make full use of various preferential policies. Wanda, Sunac and other large enterprises have fully demonstrated the responsibility of large enterprises, and they should be given rent-free and Taobao Tmall free of platform fees. Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has given enterprises greater freedom in salary payment, delayed the payment of various taxes and fees, and even provided tax incentives. Banks are also supporting enterprises in line with policy needs. Then these resources can be used and earned. The difficulty is only temporary. As long as you get through the most difficult time, you will win, and there will definitely be many opportunities for the next round of recovery.
The good news is that since 10, cities and companies have officially resumed work, so as long as the urban population rises and the consumption power rises, business opportunities will come back. Therefore, give full play to the flexibility and adaptability of small and medium-sized enterprises, and find and light a lamp of hope in the predicament. Ibsen said: "A real strong man is good at finding shadows from prosperity, looking for light from adversity, and always calibrating his goal of progress." . So can small and medium-sized enterprises.
Survival of the fittest, survival of the fittest, this is the survival law of nature, but also the survival law of major industries, on this issue, I will talk about my personal views.
2020 is destined to be an extraordinary year. In fact, many small and micro enterprises have closed down, not only this year, but also since 20 18, many small and micro enterprises have no business and no money to earn, which has caused many enterprises to suffer. After a year or two of resistance, 20 19 began to close down in the second half of the year, and small and micro enterprises closed down in early 2020.
Electric vehicle industry
Up to now, in 2020, there will be more than 20 newly closed enterprises in the electric vehicle industry. Most of the reasons for the closure are due to the increase of costs, the decrease of profits and the intensification of competition, which leads to the increase of corporate debts and forced closure due to the inability to continue operations.
As shown above, this is a newly closed enterprise in the electric vehicle industry, including Guowei Electric Vehicle, Mulan Electric Vehicle, Eagle Electric Vehicle, Jinlin Electric Vehicle, Echo Electric Vehicle, Vu Thang Electric Vehicle and other small and micro enterprises.
In the past two months in 2020, 20 electric vehicles have closed down, which is obvious. How many unemployed people will appear here? If the closure of other industries is added, many industries will be baptized again in 2020.
At present, the bidding volume of major industries is very large, which is completely the legal system of survival of the fittest.
For example, a company may make a lot of money this year, but it will lose money or even go bankrupt next year. The reason is that other enterprises have surpassed this enterprise and their market share has been occupied by another enterprise. Firms that stand still will naturally be eliminated.
There is also a legal system for the survival of enterprises, that is, eating more and eating less is to enrich capital and strength. As long as there is capital and strength, the enterprise can survive to the end, and the enterprise that survives to the end is the biggest winner.
This is the case in any industry and any market, similar to one person, hands, feet and brains. Some people can make money and live a rich and free life, while others even have problems with their survival. The same person has different endings. Some people adapt to the market and try to make money. However, under the reasonable conditions of making money successfully, this man must trample many people down. Only he can stand on the top of the mountain, and the others are eliminated by him.
The same is true for enterprises. As long as you constantly update and trample on your competitors, only in this way can you continue to operate and the market money will be earned for you. If it is eliminated by other enterprises, it will definitely go bankrupt slowly.
These are my personal views on the bankruptcy of the first batch of enterprises in 2020. We must understand the survival law of "survival of the fittest". Whether you are a man or a businessman, you must follow this law. Only when you are strong and destroy your competitors, you are the biggest winner.
2020 is an extraordinary year. I believe that after many years, recalling this year will probably still have mixed feelings.
Since we are in it, we should be full of confidence and believe that the difficulties will eventually pass and the epidemic will eventually be eliminated. As long as everyone can start from themselves and do a good job in prevention and control, the virus will soon be controlled, the dark clouds will inevitably disperse, and spring will warm bloom.
Since the Spring Festival, many enterprises have stopped production and cannot resume work. This is a great pressure for practitioners and enterprises. Many enterprises began to "slim down", the most obvious is the service industry, such as tourism, retail, catering and entertainment.
According to media reports, Wang Sicong, the "King of Karaoke" who spent 2.5 million yuan a night, sent a letter from the general manager to all employees on February 7, saying that the state of continuing to close stores under the influence of the epidemic caused great pressure on the company's existing finances. After research by the company's management, it was decided to terminate the labor contract with all employees and more than 200 employees on February 9.
Media company Xinchao Media said that although there is 654.38 billion yuan in cash in the account, it can only last for half a year. On February 654.38+00, on the first day of work, Zhang Xue Ji, founder and CEO of Xinchao Media, announced that 500 people would be laid off. ...
They are all saving themselves. If they don't save themselves, they may fall down soon. Then, tell a real case. A netizen posted on the Internet that he was the human resources director of a company, resting at home during the Spring Festival, and received a phone call from his boss, thinking that the boss had discussed with her the plan to delay returning to work. In fact, she also worked out the relevant plan for returning to work in advance and reported it to her boss.
However, the boss told her on the phone that the company was in trouble, and now it is more difficult because of the impact of the epidemic. She is going to lay off 30% of her employees, including the top management, so that she can make a layoff plan first, lay off others, and finally lay off herself ... It sounds a bit bitter. She said that a year ago, when her husband lost his job, she said to her old company, "I'm not afraid, I'll support you!" "
Unexpectedly, a year later, an epidemic made the original promise unfulfilled!
There are many things that we can hardly predict. For the impact of this epidemic, a number of enterprises will definitely "close down" and fall down. How to treat this problem?
First, the unpredictability and force majeure of the epidemic, no one wants it to happen, but nature is like this, and what should happen will happen. In the face of difficulties, it is useless to complain, worry and panic blindly. We should reflect on our way of life, overcome difficulties and let similar things never happen again.
Second, the first batch of enterprises that fell in this epidemic have certain inevitable factors. For example, in the case I just mentioned, before the outbreak of the epidemic, it was difficult to operate, and many enterprises themselves had the possibility of layoffs or termination. The outbreak only accelerated the arrival of this ending.
Third, some enterprises need to reflect on their own business strategies. In fact, the epidemic has been less than a month now, and the shutdown time is only about 20 days from the Spring Festival. Many enterprises can't survive, which shows that they are very fragile financially, either excessively pursuing the speed of development, resulting in low cash reserves or high debts. Once the cash flow is cut off, let alone three months, they may not last even one month. Unpredictable factors will always exist, and enterprises should formulate more stable business strategies to avoid being caught off guard.
Fourth, in this critical period, we need the joint efforts of all parties. For example, some enterprises need government assistance, so they need to do it in time. After all, a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are an important guarantee for employment. At the same time, at this time, we also need strong support from banks. They can't lend or cut off their loans at will. They need to tide over the difficulties with enterprises and achieve a win-win situation.
I believe that with the joint efforts of all parties, the epidemic will soon be controlled, and all industries will resume work in an orderly manner according to the actual situation and under the premise of strict prevention and control. When the production and operation are slowly restored, the impact of the epidemic on the economy will gradually disappear, and China's economy has enough resilience. As long as we are United, any difficulties will pass.
Let's talk about the manufacturing status of our company first.
Our company is a small company, a manufacturing enterprise, with only 30 people. In the practice of this epidemic, it has caused a secondary impact, but this impact is enough to make the company fall into a huge crisis.
First of all, the labor cost, Guangdong delayed the resumption of work 10 days, and some colleagues can't get to work on time at present, so all the labor costs during the delayed resumption of work are borne by the company and can be maintained for the time being.
Secondly, the company's benefit, because this epidemic, some exported goods can not be shipped abroad, which has caused an unprecedented blow to the external expansion of goods, and the company's interests may be greatly affected.
The biggest influence is sales, because the company's main way of making money is external sales. Because of this epidemic, the company's salesmen can't run all over the country, so they can only work at home, which greatly reduces the efficiency, and it has become a new problem to maintain old customers and develop new customers.
Our company can only be a second-tier influential enterprise, but the boss said somberly at the groundbreaking ceremony yesterday that the epidemic was destined to be a major crisis. In fact, the crisis contains two aspects, one is danger and the other is opportunity. We can only look for opportunities in danger, and maybe there will be different gains in 2020.
Our company is located in Dongguan. In response to this epidemic, the government issued "15 to help enterprises", which includes strengthening job stability, giving employees some social security support and reducing the burden on enterprises; At the same time, it will also subsidize some enterprises; Some professionals know that relevant enterprises have safely passed the resumption period; Rent relief for leasing enterprises; Preferential policies such as tax reduction.
This epidemic, whether we are employees or bosses, is a challenging year for us. If we don't lose our jobs, we will share the same fate with the company and tide over the difficulties together.
If some people are unemployed because they can't return to work, they should accept the reality, take good care of their health and protect their families during this time, and seek more development during this time, so as to get rid of the impact of this epidemic.
I am an entrepreneur myself. My company has been established for more than 6 years and has experienced ups and downs. In the past two years, I have been deeply studying the business laws of enterprises and sharing some experiences.
What I want to say is that you will encounter all kinds of uncertain difficulties in doing business, but this time the difficulties are bigger. Therefore, I don't think the COVID-19 epidemic is the decisive factor for the closure of these enterprises, and at most it is the last straw to crush camels. The same is true of other small and medium-sized enterprises that may close down during this period. The epidemic only accelerated the pace of closure.
Many century-old enterprises have experienced natural and man-made disasters and financial crises, but they still stand firm, which can explain the reasons.
So what is the key? A company's ability to resist risks is mainly reflected in:
1. Is the company an opportunity type or a value type? Many companies focus on chasing the wind, finding hot spots and building models, but ignore the understanding of user needs, product polishing and model verification. Can such a company have a solid foundation?
2. Is the core competitiveness possessed and maintained? Many people are too simple and rude when doing business. When they have business, they will try to cope with the delivery and then collect money. I have never considered how to stay in this society for a long time. For example, a manufacturing factory doesn't even have the concepts of quality, delivery and cost. In the past, I made money entirely from the dividends of China's environment. Once the prize money is eaten, its skills are exhausted. Moreover, to maintain core competitiveness, we have to rely on innovative culture, and how many heroes have been tripped up by innovative culture!
3. Is the strategic choice style sound? A century-old enterprise has one thing in common, and its decision-making is steady and not pedantic. Many times, after being carried away by too many victories, decision makers will float up and lead to decision-making mistakes. Ma Yun said that Alibaba is alive now not because he did something wrong, but because his competitors did something wrong.
Of course, it's easier said than done. But the logic is this.
This year may be a year that many people didn't expect.
If pork is still eaten and chickens, ducks and geese are still eaten, it will be a very pleasant start without being restricted from going out and being isolated at home during the Chinese New Year.
Because our only task in 2020 is to get rid of poverty in an all-round way and realize a well-off society in an all-round way.
But now, quite a few people are unemployed when they return to work, and some have been notified of being laid off by personnel online before they return to work.
If it is normal, it will be laid off. At least I can find a job again in the spring, but now I can't. It is difficult to find a job again because you can't go out because you are laid off.
Now many enterprises are facing the problem of keeping themselves alive.
If an enterprise wants to continue to operate and maintain its vitality, it can only consider blocking all cash flows and reducing costs when its business cannot operate normally.
In addition to the ordinary product cost, the labor cost of an enterprise is the highest. The product cost is generally relatively fixed, and it is difficult to save further. Therefore, the simplest, most direct and most effective way for enterprises to survive is to save manpower and reduce manpower expenditure, which will inevitably lead to layoffs.
Especially in tourism industry, shopping mall retail industry and catering industry, the biggest cost is personnel cost.
This is the trend. As a profit theme, enterprises can only choose the most beneficial way for themselves.
The first batch of closed enterprises are generally service-oriented enterprises with tight cash flow, especially those without physical business projects.
A large number of unemployed people, if enterprises can carry out the labor law to the end, maybe everyone will not be so difficult.
The difficulty is that the enterprise has also collapsed, and the labor remuneration that should be paid cannot be cashed immediately.
No one will know where the unemployed will go. Maybe change careers, maybe open up new fields.
Will the country have any policy support? The answer is yes.
And regardless of whether there is unemployment at this time, the state has always had relevant support policies.
Because every local government has re-employment skills training and subsidies every year to help unemployed people return to work.
It's just that many times people ignore these.
For example, every year, the Shenzhen government provides special training for rural migrant workers (new generation migrant workers, urban and rural junior high school graduates who have not continued their studies (hereinafter referred to as "two generations"), laid-off and unemployed people, retired soldiers and people with employment difficulties (including the disabled), such as vocational skills upgrading plan, entrepreneurship training plan for returning home, and labor preparation training.
For example, there are three levels of subsidies for improving vocational skills training:
1. The subsidy standard for junior (level 5) vocational qualification certificate or vocational skill level certificate of ordinary occupation (type of work) is 1000 yuan;
2. The subsidy standard for intermediate (level 4) vocational qualification certificate or vocational skill level certificate is 1500 yuan;
3 senior (three) vocational qualification certificate or vocational skill level certificate subsidy standard is 2000 yuan.
Although the amount is not large, it is also a kind of policy support for laid-off workers.
However, no matter how supportive the policies are, it is impossible to cover everything. One or two policies can lift everyone out of poverty or find a job, and ultimately it is up to the unemployed themselves.
Before Siebel said that his cash flow could only last for three months, many people denounced it as crying.
Professor Tsinghua made a survey and found that 85% of small and medium-sized enterprises did not last for three months, and about 30% did not last for one month.
Many people who have never done business find it incredible. A company has no cash flow for three months. Others say that if such enterprises fail, they will fail and have no value.
In fact, this statement is one-sided, and the chain effect will affect everyone. Because the closure of enterprises will lead to a large number of unemployment. These unemployment will affect consumption and form a domino effect.
For those who don't understand, let me give you an example. Many senior white-collar workers who buy houses and cars in big cities will face the situation that they can't live without wages for one month. In fact, enterprises also have the same situation.
The market competition is very cruel. If an enterprise wants to develop, it must keep investing. In the current competitive situation, many enterprises are sailing against the current, and if they don't advance, they will retreat.
If you open a factory, you should constantly update your equipment to meet the market demand. To do real estate, we must constantly take land and maintain the company's development. To be an e-commerce, we must keep up with the latest trends, test new models, and enhance our delivery ability.
Any industry has a similar "weight accumulation" effect. When you don't develop, others are developing, and your share will be diluted by others more and more. Therefore, in order to survive for a long time, we must constantly increase investment.
This investment cycle is getting shorter and shorter, and the speed requirement is getting faster and faster. Therefore, SMEs must seek loans under the premise of limited funds.
Once the income stops, it means that there will be problems with the capital turnover. Increasing procurement, increasing employees and accumulating interest will become a great burden for enterprises.
Now a number of enterprises have closed down. In fact, in the long run, there will definitely be enterprises with sufficient funds to fill the gap.
But for the bosses of these closed enterprises, it is a fatal blow, and they will bear a lot of debts.
Large enterprises are likely to fill the failed enterprises, because they have more abundant funds and can occupy the blank market more efficiently.
I am more worried about those enterprises that are still struggling than those that have gone bankrupt and liquidated.
Any boss treats the company as a child and even sells cars and houses for the company. No one will be willing to abandon their company until the last step.
Some bosses with a strong sense of responsibility will not have the heart to lay off employees and reduce costs, but the final cost may be great.
In fact, most enterprises that start to lay off employees and close down their business are actually stopping losses in time. If the money is still in hand, you can use the previous resources and re-enter when the market is good.
But if you are burdened with huge debts, this future may be very worrying.
First, our cash flow is almost broken.
In the past, there was a saying on the Internet that an enterprise only had two months' cash flow. Maybe some people don't believe it, but Hu Gexin.
Because the funds in Hu Xiong's current account can only last for two months. The rent and personnel salary are fixed. At the end of last year, the property has informed that the rent will rise in 2020, from100000/year to1.2000/year. At the same time, because the consulting industry is a high-intelligence industry, the salary of personnel is the biggest capital, and the monthly salary is spent like water.
Second, our countermeasures.
Of course, we belong to a typical light asset industry. Although human wages are not a small expense, they are always linked to the project. As long as there is a project, the money will always come back.
This epidemic sweeping across the country has a far-reaching impact on labor-intensive enterprises such as manufacturing, and starting work is a big problem; Of course, the consulting industry is also affected, but I think it has little impact on us;
On the one hand, even if face-to-face communication is not convenient, as long as the previous interviews and communication are completed, the project team members can complete the scheme writing in their own homes, and anything can be contacted online; On the other hand, with the recovery of new project funds and the introduction of new investors, all problems will be solved.
Third, be prepared for danger in times of peace.
Of course, on the one hand, it is the particularity of the industry, on the other hand, it is good that there was a layout years ago-investors came in. This epidemic tells us that if something unexpected happens, there will be successors, especially companies with tight funds.
As far as we know, KTV, the king of karaoke in Beijing, was the first to fall, but in fact there are still many unknown enterprises that can't survive. 2020 is indeed an extraordinary year, and there is no good luck to start the year, but we are United and confident to survive.
The Spring Festival in previous years was always cheerful, but this year's Spring Festival was very deserted. With the arrival of the epidemic, the whole country has fallen into a state of stagnation, spreading because of the virus and will be terminated in the future.
The king of karaoke mentioned above is indeed a good enterprise, but it has not been able to reverse its fate. I have a deep memory since the epidemic. Since the New Year's Eve, we have basically entered a defensive state, far from the hometown of the fifth-tier cities, and there is no flow of people in the whole street. Soon, all major stores were notified, so closing down became synonymous with this period of time.
Even 2.5 million KTV in Wang Sicong will collapse overnight, which means that many enterprises that need liquidity to survive are not spared. Or in a word, the times will give birth to a number of enterprises, but it will also destroy a number of enterprises, and layoffs have become a new synonym for many companies.
This process is not necessarily the survival of the fittest, and even some high-quality enterprises will be forced to leave the realization of people, because not all enterprises can afford to close down for one month. Once the liquidity dries up, the only thing left is extinction, but there will be enterprises to save themselves in this process.
This is what we call a broken arm to survive. So at this stage, many companies will announce layoffs. Because business can't be carried out, they can't pay the salaries of many employees. It is helpless to survive with a broken arm. Therefore, with the aggravation of the epidemic, the number of unemployed people will increase, but the cause is not a big deal. For example, I am currently unemployed. I will become a worker after the last working day on 20 19.
What support can the government give at this stage? In fact, in addition to lack of money, enterprises also lack a human touch. For example, when enterprises really can't bear it, the government can make financing relatively simple. Moreover, if the government can sympathize with the people's feelings, can it appropriately reduce the tax burden? Let enterprises get more help in times of crisis.
Therefore, in such a difficult process, the country is suffering, and we need to unite as one. Only by caring for each other and getting the best policies can we tide over the difficulties. When everything is in ruins, we need to be more persistent and wait for the day when our faithful wife arrives. ...
A crisis is a crisis because there will be new opportunities after the danger. Often this time, it will be the time to test the real management ability of an enterprise. It cannot adapt to reality. Sorry, we have to go home.
Why did a number of enterprises close down more than 10 days after the outbreak?
First of all, these enterprises are definitely highly indebted. High debt, when the economy and life are normalized, can make an enterprise grow bigger quickly. However, the sudden black swan event will make them extremely fragile, giants will fall down, and there may be a trace of residual temperature in their bodies. It is not that the enterprise model is not good, but that the enterprise has no risk control mechanism and no ability to cope with risks. Last year, a friend asked me why Apple made so much money and left so much cash reserves.
In the face of the present situation, do you understand how much cash flow affects a company? If the enterprise saves a trust fund when it is operating well, perhaps the enterprise has more cash reserves, then the epidemic will not fall down immediately in the past few days. Finally, it must be an enterprise with good risk control.
Secondly, huge costs fail to return profits. Service, tourism, catering and retail are all tertiary industries, that is, the industries closest to consumers, and also the industries that need to meet customers most to clinch a deal.
Now that everyone is at home, consumption is restrained. Without consumption, the above-mentioned industries will have no profits, but the state still has to pay employees' wages, as well as rent, property, loans, warehousing and other costs.
I saw a chat record saying that the tenant had no income because of the epidemic and asked the landlord to reduce the rent. The landlord said that I also pay my mortgage every month, and my mortgage has not been reduced by the bank, and my credit card has to be paid every month.
So there is no income, the cost is still spent, there is not enough cash to tide over the difficulties, only bankruptcy.
So, where will the unemployed go?
The crisis eliminated fragile enterprises, and there must be a number of high-quality enterprises that can survive. After the epidemic has passed, they will choose high-quality enterprises to work again.
I believe that during the epidemic, many friends must also learn all kinds of knowledge at home and try to adapt to the new working environment in the future. For example, I am learning the skills of building Tik Tok.
Moreover, I believe that there must be some people who choose to start a business. They may invest in live broadcast with goods, may invest in creating a good self-media, and so on.
Just like SARS in 2002-03, Taobao was born and e-commerce developed rapidly. Then the novel coronavirus epidemic will definitely make our entity enterprises seriously think about how to integrate with the Internet.
For the country, it would be great if some taxes and fees can be moderately reduced for small and medium-sized enterprises.
It's not that they don't work hard, but that they are really unexpected. Small and medium-sized enterprises are the pillars of the national economy. Appropriate relief policies will enable them to absorb more unemployed people and make the economy more dynamic. I hope this day can come early and the epidemic will end soon.
Come on Wuhan, come on China!