We read all the lead China just to present a different history. As we all know, the total population of China is now close to 65.438+0.4 billion, and it is a well-deserved world population country. In fact, for a long time in history, China was the most populous country in the world. Especially after the founding of New China, the great improvement of medical conditions, the guarantee of agricultural food, and the implementation of the national policy of calling on people to give birth have prompted a sudden increase in population. In just a few decades, it has increased from 542 million in the early days of the People's Republic of China (A.D. 1953) to1400 million today. Little known is that the population growth rate in ancient China was not so exaggerated after the founding of the People's Republic of China, but showed a ladder-like growth pattern. According to the existing literature, from the Shang and Zhou Dynasties to the founding of the People's Republic of China, the population of China developed from tens of millions to "40 million" compatriots in the general sense of the Republic of China. The process was not equal, and it experienced several ups and downs. The important steps worthy of our attention are 65.438+0 billion, 50 million and 65.438+0 billion. This step-by-step population growth is composed of many factors, among which economic development is the most important one except political, military and climate change factors. ▲ Portrait of thomas robert malthus 1. Thomas robert malthus, a neglected English priest and demographer, expounded a famous theory in The Theory of Population. He thinks that the population will increase in geometric progression indefinitely, while the living resources can only increase in arithmetic progression. The former is "2,4,8, 16 ..." and the latter is "2,4,8,16". He also suggested that the total population should double every 25 years if there were no restrictions. At this rate, assuming that the total population in the first year of Emperor Ping's reign in the Western Han Dynasty was 65.438+million, the total population of China in the Eastern Jin Dynasty (at the beginning of the fifth century) after 500 years should exceed the astronomical figure of 654.38+0 trillion. However, this is not the case. There is little difference in the total population of China between these two periods. Moreover, after the Eight Kings Rebellion and Five Rebellions, the total population of the Eastern Jin Dynasty was slightly less than that of the late Western Han Dynasty. In fact, it is the slow growth of the means of subsistence that limits the population growth. For example, in 2000, the growth ratio of population and living materials was 256: 9, and in 300, it was 4096: 13. The development of means of subsistence is stagnant, which leads to the slow natural population growth. ▲ Bronze chopsticks in the Warring States Period (one of the agricultural tools) According to the population history of China, the total population of China in the pre-Qin period was always at a low level, and the national population in the Xia and Shang Dynasties was about 6.5438+0.3 million, and the total population remained at this level by the end of the Warring States Period. After Qin Shihuang unified the six countries, the total population of the Qin Dynasty was estimated at around 20 million. For more than two thousand years, the total population has remained basically stable, and there has been no sharp increase. The most fundamental reason is the limitation of the supply of means of subsistence. The pre-Qin period was the embryonic stage of Chinese traditional agriculture. Millet, millet and other crops were domesticated and cultivated by ancestors, and bronze farm tools began to replace stone farm tools. The ancestors initially mastered phenology and astronomical calendar, and the agricultural economy developed initially, which is the material basis for feeding millions of people in the Central Plains alone. However, due to the single variety of crops, many defects in bronze farm tools, lack of guarantee of water conservancy infrastructure, and frequent wars and natural disasters, agricultural production is still in an extensive and backward stage, and the growth of means of subsistence is greatly limited, so the population can only be maintained at the same level. ▲ Modern people imitate the Han Dynasty market II. Population Cascade under the Background of Technological Breakthrough The first population cascade in China appeared in the Han Dynasty. According to the Records of Geography of Hanshu, in the second year of the Western Han Dynasty (AD 2), the total population of the whole country was about 59 million. The population of Han Dynasty decreased sharply, and the population of early Eastern Han Dynasty increased rapidly. According to Records of Counties and Countries in the Later Han Dynasty, the total population of the whole country was only 34 million in the 18th year of Yongping in the Eastern Han Dynasty (AD 75), 43 million in the 2nd year of Emperor Zhang of Han Dynasty (AD 88) and 56 million in the 3rd year of Yong Shou of Han Dynasty (AD 157). During the 300-odd years of the Han Dynasty, although the total population has been fluctuating around 50 million, compared with Xia, Shang and Zhou Dynasties, there has been a great breakthrough. In addition to the social stability and war reduction brought about by global unification, the breakthrough progress of productivity, especially agricultural technology, is the most critical reason for the cascade growth of population. ▲ Restoring the scene of farmers' farming in the Han Dynasty As early as the end of the Warring States Period, Tieli Niu Geng's agricultural farming methods appeared. In the Qin and Han Dynasties, with the emergence of the feudal unified dynasty and the relative stability of the country, this traditional small-scale peasant economy entered a period of formation and development, and agriculture gradually developed from extensive to refined. Advanced production tools such as iron plow wall, two-person and three-cow coupling plow, iron harrow, rickshaw, windmill, waterwheel and stone mill have gradually appeared. On the other hand, the opening of the Silk Road has also enriched crop varieties. * * * Pay more attention to the summary of water conservancy construction and agricultural production experience, and gradually promulgate and implement a more accurate calendar ... All kinds of developments have made a qualitative leap in labor productivity that has been stagnant for more than 2,000 years. ▲ In the Han Dynasty, under the intensive small-scale peasant economy, the agricultural yield per mu was broken. The grain yield per mu in Xia and Shang Dynasties lacks relevant literature records, so it will not be considered for the time being. According to Guanzi written in the Spring and Autumn Period, "A farmer's business is that it takes only 20 minutes to plow 100 mu and 100 mu at the end of the year", which means that the grain yield per mu in Qilu in the Spring and Autumn Period is 0.2 minutes, and 1 minute is 10 stone, that is, the yield per mu is 2 stones. The grain yield per mu in Han Dynasty has been improved by a breakthrough. "Pre-Han Ji" records that the per mu yield of Emperor Wen of Han Dynasty is "five farmers today, with only two servants and only one hundred mu of cultivators. A hundred acres of harvest, but three hundred stones. " That is, 3 stones per mu; During the period of Emperor Wu of the Han Dynasty, Historical Records Hequ recorded that "(5,000 hectares of cultivated land can irrigate more than 2 million mangokus in this valley", and 5,000 hectares is equivalent to 500,000 mu, that is, four stones are produced per mu; In the Wei and Jin Dynasties, Ji Kang wrote "On Health Preservation": "Those who plow fields are called fertile fields, and the world knows them." 1 is 1 stone, which is 10 stone per mu. Of course, "fertile land" can yield 10 stone per mu, so this figure is not the general grain output at that time, but in any case, the grain output of the Han Dynasty has been greatly improved compared with that of the pre-Qin period. ▲ Compensation effect brought by the economic center of gravity moving south in Han Dynasty. After the Han dynasty, the total population began to stagnate again. Although the perennial war has caused population fluctuation, the most fundamental reason for the stagnation of the total population is the bottleneck of the population's economic support. During the Wei and Jin Dynasties, the country was divided between the north and the south, with frequent wars and a low population. According to the population history of China, the total population of China in the Three Kingdoms period was 6.5438+0.4 million to 6.5438+0.8 million, and the total population of the whole country was about 20 million when the Western Jin Dynasty was unified. After that, the population slowly picked up, reaching a peak of 42 million in the Southern and Northern Dynasties and 49 million in the Sui Dynasty. From the end of Han Dynasty to the beginning of Sui Dynasty, the population returned to 50 million for more than 300 years. The reason for this situation lies in the confrontation between the north and the south of the regime, frequent wars and massacres, and the instability of the political situation has caused great damage to economic development and seriously restricted the growth rate of population. However, we should also see that in such a harsh environment, the total population can rise again, obviously there is a new driving factor, that is, the economic center of gravity moves south. ▲ Image of celebrities in Wei and Jin Dynasties Before Wei and Jin Dynasties, China's economic center of gravity was always in the northern Central Plains. Although the southern region has long belonged to China, it is vast and sparsely populated, and many of them are still uncivilized. At the end of the Han Dynasty, the Yellow River valley, which was originally densely populated, declined due to the war, and the population began to move southward, and southern cities began to be built. At the end of the Western Jin Dynasty, the northern Hu people went south on a large scale, the princes and nobles moved south to seek refuge in the east, and the economic center of gravity moved south. Although the climate in Jiangnan is sultry, the fertile land is very suitable for planting rice with high yield per mu. Although the north has been reclaimed for a long time, its development potential has reached the bottleneck. Due to frequent wars, the actual output is very limited. With a large number of people moving south, the southern region got the first opportunity of large-scale development. According to statistics, from the second year of Emperor Pingdi in the Western Han Dynasty (AD 2) to the first year of the Eastern Han Dynasty (AD 146), the cultivated land area in China remained between 690 million mu and 820 million mu. Even if there are statistical errors, the cultivated land area of the whole country should remain basically unchanged during this period. In the ninth year of Emperor Wendi (AD 589), the national statistical data of cultivated land area was 65.438+0.94 billion mu, which more than doubled. Most of this increase is the result of long-term development in Jiangnan. The development of Jiangnan made up for the shortage of means of production caused by hundreds of years of war, and the total population was able to return to the 50 million steps when the dynasty was unified. ▲ Green paddy field IV. The structural contradiction of supply under social prosperity During the Tang and Song Dynasties, the society was stable for a long time, the small-scale peasant economy and production technology were further developed, the development of the south of the Yangtze River continued, and the means of subsistence began to accumulate. The ever-increasing total social supply promoted the rise of the total population. In the Song Dynasty, the total population broke through the new level of 1 100 million for the first time. Relying mainly on traditional agriculture, it was not easy for China ancient population to break through the 1 100 million mark, and this miracle obviously benefited from the deep development of Jiangnan. According to statistics, during the Southern Song Dynasty, the population of Jiangxi alone reached10.25 million, while that of Hebei was only 4.66 million. Jiangnan area came from behind with the advantage of climate per mu, and began to become the most densely populated area in China, with a population cascade of 654.38 billion, which lasted until the early Qing Dynasty. In addition to the short-term population decline caused by the change of dynasties, the total population has been basically stable for hundreds of years, which actually means that there is a new bottleneck in the supply of means of subsistence. ▲ It is worth noting that the model of urban restoration in the Tang Dynasty is that the "means of subsistence" mentioned here does not only refer to agriculture. Although resources have always emphasized the importance of agriculture to population growth, agriculture is not the only component of the economic structure. Under the condition of natural economy, no matter how intensive the small-scale peasant economy is, it can't support China, a huge country. During the Song and Ming Dynasties, the population will wander again, which has a lot to do with the increasingly prominent contradiction of economic structure. The change from quantity to quality means that the contradiction between supply and demand has changed, which is a problem that the small-scale peasant economy can't solve anyway. We can appear from the middle and late Ming Dynasty. ▲ The costumes of aristocratic couples in the Ming Dynasty began in the Jiajing period of the Ming Dynasty. With the development of productive forces, commodity economy has ushered in the spring, and people's consumption concept has gradually changed from simplicity to pursuit of enjoyment. The clothing, food, shelter and transportation that only princes and nobles can enjoy are gradually becoming commercialized and secularized, which is a phenomenon of "consumption upgrading" that did not exist in the previous dynasty. The emergence of this situation is closely related to the economic changes in the world at that time. The opening of new air routes began to brew the industrial revolution in Europe. Traditional agriculture gradually withdrew from the dominant position in the West, and handicrafts and service industries developed rapidly with the influx of funds. These are the inevitable results of economic development. Under such great changes, people's living conditions and lifestyles will inevitably change. Although China has also been affected by this trend, it has failed to keep up. Due to the conservative and mistakes of the rulers' economic policies, the Ming Dynasty failed to handle this round of economic restructuring, and traditional agriculture still occupied most of the national economy, and the production efficiency did not improve. According to the estimation of relevant scholars, the average GDP growth rate in the Ming Dynasty for more than 200 years was less than 0.3%, and the total economic supply was seriously insufficient. The prominent structural contradiction of supply eventually dragged down this powerful dynasty. ▲ Farming scene in the era of traditional small-scale peasant economy? There are many ways and frequencies that affect the change of Chinese dynasties, such as the quality of politics, the victory or defeat of wars and the emergence of key historical figures. However, judging from the cascade changes of population growth in China for thousands of years, economic factors have played a crucial role in restricting the replacement of dynasties, and economic growth has produced more means of subsistence, thus promoting population growth and dynasty stability. However, economic growth is restricted by many factors and it is impossible to move forward forever. After each breakthrough, it is bound to encounter new bottlenecks and form new "supply constraints", which is the key to the historical development process. The new "supply constraint" usually has different connotations. People no longer meet the basic needs of survival, which is the "quantity" side, and the "means of subsistence" that affects population growth is ". People must give consideration to both quantity and quality when improving supply, which makes it more and more difficult to break through the "supply constraint". However, every successful step-by-step breakthrough will usher in new development that has lasted for hundreds of years. References: Population History of China, Study on Grain Yield per mu in China in Past Dynasties, Statistics of Household Registration, Fields and Land Taxes in China in Past Dynasties.