An important reason why different snack brands "happen to coincide" in price adjustment is that upstream materials have soared across the board. Although the price increase of sugar is not large, it is particularly conspicuous: from 65438+ at the beginning of this year 10 to the end of April, the main contract of sugar has risen from 4660 to 5439. After that, it fell back, but it was still above 5 100.
The sugar industry has always had the saying that "two cows and three bears", and the price cycle of a sugar is generally as long as 5-6 years. Since the peak of 20 16 in the second half of the year, the sugar price has been falling for nearly three years, and this short-term rise, although only a small fluctuation in a long period, has undoubtedly brought a glimmer of light to the tired market:
Figure The sugar price cycle is as long as 5~6 years, rising more and falling less (source: Guangxi Sugar Network, Guangfa Securities)
Is this round of high prices out of the shadow of the previous downturn, or is it just a "dead cat jumping"? Today, we will start with the origin of sugar and dig deep into "sweet troubles".
1
From aristocrats to commoners: a brief history of sugar
Sugar is familiar to all of us and is regarded as a symbol of sweetness. According to different forms, sugar can be divided into brown sugar, white sugar and rock sugar:
Although the forms of the three sugars are very different, the main components are not different-they are all sucrose, but the impurities are different. Whether it is white sugar or rock sugar, the raw material for production is brown sugar.
Brown sugar, white sugar and rock sugar are homologous.
The production of brown sugar is very simple. Sugarcane or beet can be concentrated into brown sugar after pressing, filtering and boiling. On the basis of brown sugar treatment, the process of purification and decoloration was added, and finally impurities were removed, which became white sugar. Through the propagation of white sugar crystals, ice-like rock sugar is formed.
Here, I have to mention the legendary rumor that "rock sugar reduces fire and sugar gets angry": now we know very well that the same thing is only handsome and ugly, where can it have different effects? At the same time, many rumors of "brown sugar enriching blood" have no scientific basis.
As for the popular saying among girls that "I want to drink brown sugar water when my period comes", what really works is hot water, and the only function of brown sugar is to provide more calories and accelerate the body to get fat.
However, although the "health care function" is unreliable, the sweetness of sugar is irresistible to everyone. Because of this, from the east to the west, sugar has been an important part of human diet since ancient times.
Nowadays, sugar is only a few dollars a catty, and everyone doesn't agree, but sugar in history is a very precious food.
Evolutionary history of sugar
China's sugar industry has a long history. As early as the Shang Dynasty, sugar was recorded, but at this time sugar became "caramel", which was close to maltose today and was extracted from starchy grains. At that time, the grain yield per mu was very low, so it was impossible to treat a large amount of grain as sugar. Therefore, caramel is only a luxury that the upper class aristocrats can enjoy.
In the Tang Dynasty, the sugar industry further developed. According to New Tang Book, in the first year of Shangyuan in Li Zhi, Tang Gaozong (674), domestic sugar producers were able to adopt a production method close to modern chemical decolorization. During the Southern Song Dynasty, Fujian, Zhejiang and Sichuan all produced a large amount of sugar. In the Southern Song Dynasty, a special organization was even set up to manage sugar production. The fishing city, which Kublai Khan's brother Mongo never captured before his death, was an important producer of sucrose in the Southern Song Dynasty.
In the Ming Dynasty, Song wrote "Starting Work and Opening Things", in which the chapter "Gan Addiction" also described in detail various methods of planting sugarcane and making sugar.
At that time, sugar was done like this:
"Fujian and Guangxi will ripen sugar cane in winter, squeeze sugar cane juice, put it in a jar, then cook it with fire, wait until it turns into yellow-black syrup, and pour it into a bucket to condense into brown sugar. Then put a ceramic tile funnel on the top of a jar, plug the leak with a straw, pour the brown sugar into the funnel, and then remove the straw when the brown sugar forms a lump. Then pour the brown sugar in the funnel with yellow mud water, and the black residue flows from the funnel to the jar below, and the brown sugar in the funnel becomes frost. The top layer is about five inches, very white, just like the sugar we eat today. "
Figure Ancient sugar-making technology (Source: Tiangong Wu Kai)
Around the middle of the Ming Dynasty, immigrants from China spread sugar-making technology to the Philippines in Southeast Asia, and then spread it across the ocean to Hawaii and other places. As for the sucrose production technology in western European countries, it was introduced to Spain, Italy and other countries from India through Arabs in the seventh century.
However, in a long historical period, due to the backwardness of sugar-making technology, the output of sugar is very low, so only relatively rich people and regions can regard "sweetness" as an ordinary consumption. Heavy sugar is not only a dietary habit, but also a symbol of rich status. For example, in economically developed wuyue, many famous dishes are "sweet to the hair".
In modern times, due to the application of large-scale industrial technology, the production cost of sugar dropped sharply, which not only gave the working people a chance to taste the sweetness, but also made a number of famous industrial giants. For example, Swire Group in Hong Kong and Yihai Kerry in Malaysia all relied on sugar production and trade to obtain huge wealth in their early years.
However, because of the popularity of sugar, sweets and sugary drinks are popular, which leads to obesity, hypertension, diabetes, heart disease and so on, becoming "sweet troubles".
It is precisely because of a series of problems caused by the proliferation of sugar that some people regard sugar as an "addictive substance" such as coffee, tobacco and alcohol, and wish to do it once and for all. What's more, some foreign politicians, under the guise of "health", threatened to increase taxes on all foods with excessive sugar content to limit consumption, but what was the effect? You can refer to the effect brought by the previous "plastic limit order".
Whether sugar is an angel that brings "sweetness" or a devil that brings "obesity", human beings are doomed to "love and kill each other" with sugar. The production and consumption of sugar has become a huge industry, and hundreds of millions of people rely on this industrial chain to live. Now, let's walk into the sugar industry chain, understand every link in the industry chain, and also understand the head countries in the industry chain.
2
Can sugar produced globally meet the needs of consumers?
Although there are countless sugary things, as far as mass production with economic value is concerned, there are two main sources of sugar raw materials in the world: beet and sugarcane. Although one of these two crops is like a trunk and the other is like a radish, the sugar produced is sucrose. Unless otherwise specified, the following sugar refers to sucrose.
Figure Difference between Sugarcane and Beet (Source: Wukong Q&A)
Among them, the sugar production of sugarcane accounts for 80% of the current sugar production. Sugarcane planting areas are concentrated, mainly in Brazil (the world's largest sugar producer) in Central and South America, China, India and Thailand in Asia. Sugarbeet planting areas are mainly concentrated in high latitudes such as Europe and Russia in the northern hemisphere, and are also planted in parts of northern China. In a word, sugar cane likes heat and sugar beet likes cold.
In China, this "sweet in the south and sweet in the north" is particularly obvious: sugarcane sugar industry is mainly distributed in Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Fujian, Hainan, Sichuan and other places. Sugar beet industry is concentrated in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Xinjiang and other places. In China, the yield ratio of sugarcane sugar to beet sugar is about 15: 1.
Figure Layout of "Southern Gansu and Northern Sweet" in China (Source: Guo Jun Agriculture)
As early as 20 14, the world experienced the strongest El Ni? o phenomenon in 10, when India suffered from drought for several months. Affected by this, the global sugar production has dropped significantly from 20 15 to 20 16. The influence of 20 17 El Nino gradually faded, and the sugar production of major sugar-producing countries in the world gradually picked up.
Figure 20 13—20 17 Global Sugar Production (Source: Zhiyan Consulting)
Table 20 13-20 18 Statistics of sugar production in various countries around the world (thousands of tons) (image source: China Industrial Information Network)
As far as demand is concerned, the country with the largest sugar consumption in the world is India, which belongs to Asia with China. Indians, men, women and children, have almost no "immunity" to candy, so it is no exaggeration to say that they are "looking at sugar eyes". Even if you drink black tea every day, you should put away the polysaccharide; There are many kinds of desserts in India.
As shown in the table below, India is the largest sugar consumer and the second largest sugar producer in the world, and its population is almost equal to that of China. The consumption of sugar in 20 17 years is equivalent to 1.7 China, which is really a "booming production and sales".
India's domestic production and marketing situation directly determines whether it is an importer or an exporter in the international market, which will have a greater impact on the supply and demand pattern in the international market.
Fig. 20 13-20 18 global sugar demand statistics (thousands of tons) (image source: China industrial information network)
After talking about the world, let's look back at China: China is the main net sugar importer in the world, because the domestic sugar production can't meet the consumer demand. Why can't you meet the demand? It can be analyzed from two aspects: production and consumption:
In terms of output, the main sugarcane producing areas in China are rugged in terrain, with relatively poor natural conditions for production and relatively high cost: 20 16 years, the production cost of sugarcane in China is 360-400 yuan/ton, compared with Brazil (134- 158 yuan/ton) and India (1ton).
Compared with other countries, the cost of sugarcane production in China is higher (Source: Guo Jun Securities).
The characteristics of sugarcane perennial roots for three years make the domestic sugarcane planting area show the periodic characteristics of increasing production after three years and reducing production. In 2007/2008, the sugar output in China reached the highest level in history, reaching14.82 million tons, accounting for 654.38+00% of the global output. It is estimated that the domestic sugar output in 19/20 cropping season is106,000 tons.
Figure The total sugar output in China fluctuates periodically (Source: Guo Jun Securities)
In terms of consumption, China is a big sugar country. Since 2003, China's total sugar consumption has increased from 965,438+10,000 tons to150,000 tons, an increase of nearly 65%. On the one hand, it comes from the population growth in China, on the other hand, it also comes from the economic growth and the development of sugar industry.
However, due to the growing concern for health, the growth rate of sugar consumption has slowed down in recent years. In the 20 17/ 18 cropping season, the total sugar consumption in China was150,000 tons, which was the same as that in the previous cropping season.
Figure China's sugar consumption has steadily increased (Source: Guo Jun Securities)
China is a major net sugar importer in the world. For a long time, domestic white sugar is generally low-quality white sugar, while international trade is mainly raw sugar and high-quality white sugar; On the other hand, due to the high cost, the price of sugar in China is relatively high compared with the international price. Therefore, China's sugar has no export advantage, and domestic sugar production mainly meets domestic consumption demand.
Figure The domestic sugar price is obviously higher than the international sugar price (Source: Guo Jun Securities).
Before 20 17, Brazil, Cuba and Thailand were the main sources of sugar imports in China, accounting for about 90% of China's total sugar imports. However, 20 17, some changes have taken place. First, Brazil is still the largest sugar importer, but Brazil's sugar imports have decreased significantly, from19.89 million tons in 20 17 to 790,000 tons in 20 17, with a decrease rate of 60.3%.
Figure 20 17 China sugar importing countries (Source: China Industrial Information Network)
So why did China's sugar imports from Brazil drop sharply in 20 17? In the final analysis, it is still related to taxation:
In May, 20 17, China imposed safeguard measures tariff on imported sugar exceeding the tariff quota, and substantially increased the tariff on imported sugar. The implementation period was three years: from May 22, 20 17 to May 2 1 year, the tariff rate of safeguard measures was 45%; From May 22nd, 20 18 to May 22nd, 20 19, the tariff rate of safeguard measures was 40%; From May 22, 20 19 to May 2, 20201day, the tariff rate of safeguard measures was 35%.
This measure restricts China's imports from suppliers such as Brazil. So how strong is Brazil's sugar industry? Let's learn about Brazil's sugar industry, which is unique in the world.
three
Global Independence: How Powerful is Brazil's Sugar Empire?
Located in the southeast of South America, Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world. To the east of the Atlantic Ocean, the land area is 8.547 million square kilometers, accounting for about 46% of the total area of South America, and China's arable land area is about 400 million hectares. Brazil has a tropical climate in most areas and a subtropical climate in some parts of the south, which is an excellent sugarcane producing area. In the past two planting seasons, the planting area in central and southern Brazil can reach 10 times that in northern Brazil.
Figure Brazil's sugar planting area (Source: CITIC Jiantou)
Figure South-central Brazil is the main sugarcane producing area in the country (Source: Guo Jun Securities)
Sugar giants, establishing hegemony
Not only is the region highly concentrated, but Brazil's sugar industry is also concentrated in the hands of some big companies: Raizenergias. A is a large-scale sugarcane processing plant in Brazil, with a sugarcane crushing capacity of about 6,654,380+02,000 tons in 2065,438+07/18. It accounts for about 65,438+00% of sugarcane production in Brazil. After the acquisition of two other sugar factories, the production capacity reached 73 million tons per cropping season.
Copersucar, another sugar giant, has 35 member sugar alcohol factories in Brazil. During the 20 17/ 18 cropping season, it harvested about 85 million tons of sugarcane, accounting for 4.25% of 12.75% of south-central Brazil, and produced 4.6 million tons of sugar, accounting for12.75% of south-central Brazil.
However, since 20 13 went public, the French agricultural giant Louis Dreyfus owns 73% of the shares in the 1 1 sugar factory in Brazil, and the harvest season is 20 18/ 19. By the end of June, the sugarcane crushing capacity increased by 17. 1.
Figure Bisef Sugar Factory in all parts of Brazil (Source: Xing Zheng Futures)
It is so many sugar giants that have established the dominance of Brazilian sugar industry. Compared with the annual production capacity of Brazil's sugar giants, China's sugar enterprises still have a lot of room to catch up: Take COFCO Sugar as an example, the company's annual production capacity is currently 6.5438+0.5 million tons at home and 300,000 tons overseas.
In recent years, Brazil's sugarcane production has been ranked in the top two in the world, and Brazil's sugar production accounts for the global proportion16%; Brazil's sugar export volume has always been the highest in the world (accounting for nearly 40%), which has a decisive impact on the global sugar industry. At present, Brazil's sugarcane planting area accounts for 2.5% of Brazil's cultivated land area, which is nearly100000 hectares.
Figure Brazil's sugar production is very important in the world (Source: Guo Jun Securities)
However, during the 18/ 19 cropping season, the situation changed, and the sugar production in Brazil dropped sharply, and the sugar production in the whole cropping season was less than 30 million tons. India has surpassed Brazil to become the country with the largest sugar production. This is mainly due to the substitution of ethanol and the influence of policies, which led to a sharp drop in sugar production in Brazil and even made India sit on the top spot.
Figure 18/ 19 Brazil's sugar production dropped sharply (Source: Guo Jun Securities)
How does ethanol "nibble" Brazilian sugarcane?
When it comes to the substitution of ethanol, it can't be said that Brazilian sugarcane has two main uses, one is to make sugar, and the other is to make ethanol as an additive for gasoline. Using ethanol as an additive can not only save gasoline, but also increase the oxygen content in gasoline and improve the combustion efficiency.
After the first oil crisis, Brazil developed fuel ethanol technology and became one of the earliest countries in the world. At present, the proportion of ethanol added to Brazilian gasoline is as high as 27%. At the same time, the government also encourages people to use ethanol fuel for vehicles, which greatly promotes the application of ethanol fuel in Brazil.
At present, there are more than 300 ethanol fuel production enterprises in Brazil, with an ethanol production capacity of more than 20 million tons, of which more than 95% ethanol is used as fuel, accounting for half of Brazil's automobile fuel consumption. Many enterprises use sugarcane to produce sugar and ethanol at the same time.
Figure Industrial Process of Ethanol Production in Brazil (Source: Guo Jun Securities)
Figure 18/ 19 Brazil's ethanol/gasoline ratio is at a low level during the cropping season (source: Guo Jun Securities).
Under the high oil price, it is difficult to reduce the ethanol production in Brazil.
Due to the rising price of gasoline, at the end of July, 2065438+2007, Brazil adjusted the tax rates of gasoline, diesel and ethanol. After adjustment, the cost of using ethanol fuel is only about 70% of the cost of using gasoline, which greatly stimulates the demand for ethanol, leads to an increase in ethanol production in Brazil, and then leads to a decrease in the proportion of sugarcane (the proportion of sugar alcohol has dropped to a historical low of 35%).
The international crude oil price is highly positively correlated with Brazil's dollar-denominated ethanol price, but in recent years, influenced by Brazil's exchange rate and domestic inflation, Brazil's gasoline price has been on the rise. In the future, it will not be ruled out that the price of ethanol in Brazil will not fall due to the increase of gasoline price in Brazil, which will make it difficult to significantly increase the proportion of sugarcane (ethanol production has higher profit).
Figure High oil prices promote the development of ethanol industry in Brazil (Source: Guo Jun Securities)
In addition to the impact of oil prices, the price of ethanol in Brazil is seasonal. According to the research of Guo Jun Futures, the price of absolute ethanol in Brazil often drops sharply with the start of the harvest season in central and southern China, and rises rapidly with the end of the harvest season. Ethanol prices usually bottom out in early July. At the same time, in the middle and late harvest season (August-65438+February), the price of ethanol in Brazil will increase seasonally.
At present, according to the Brazilian ethanol futures price for forward delivery, the seasonal low of ethanol price reached 13.5 cents/pound from May to June, and the price of ethanol converted into sugar will exceed 13.5 cents/pound due to seasonal increase in the later period. However, when ethanol is more profitable than sugar, the probability of sugar alcohol rising rapidly is still very small.
Figure Seasonal fluctuation of ethanol price in Brazil (Source: Guo Jun Securities)
At the same time, at present, the international sugar price continues to be low, and the profit of sugar extraction is obviously lower than that of ethanol production. Therefore, the pursuit of profit led to a sharp decline in the proportion of sugarcane, especially in the 18/ 19 cropping season, which decreased by nearly 10%. At the same time, Brazil's sugar export in 20 18 decreased by 26% year-on-year.
Figure Ethanol inhibits Brazil's sugar exports (Source: Guo Jun Securities)
To sum up, we can draw a conclusion that not only people can eat sugar, but also wine can eat sugar! This seems to have the same effect as ensuring the grain supply of Maotai at all costs in a special period in the history of China. Then the problem is coming. The output of the sugar-producing "first brother" has dropped so much. How will sugar prices go in the future?
four
The news of production reduction is frequent, will the price of sugar be extremely favorable?
If only Brazil is in trouble in the global edible sugar market, the "besieged on all sides" of other major producing countries will certainly not make the international sugar price fluctuate too much. Unfortunately, happiness is always similar, and sometimes so is misfortune.
Output: Listen to "Reducing Production"
In India, industrial policies make it difficult to export edible sugar. At present, India is in the transitional stage of the government. The current Indian Prime Minister Modi can give him the largest ticket warehouse-enough votes for farmers, and implement the policy of high sugarcane purchase price and minimum sugarcane purchase price. This leads to the high purchase price of sugarcane in India and the high enthusiasm of farmers to grow sugarcane.
However, as mentioned above, it takes about three years for sugarcane to grow. Moreover, due to India's procurement policy, the domestic purchase price of sugarcane remains high, and there is a big gap between the international sugar price and the domestic purchase price, which makes it difficult for India to export sugar, which is undoubtedly a positive for sugar prices.
The picture shows that the sugar export of India, a big sugar producer, has declined for four consecutive years (Source: Guo Jun Securities).
The situation in other sugar-producing countries seems to be not optimistic: in the past, the high global sugar stocks and the suppression of sugar prices by the weather also affected the sugar production in Thailand and the European Union. It is estimated that the sugar production in Thailand and EU will decrease by about 10% in the 20 19/20 cropping season.
The output has decreased. What about the demand?
With the increasing concern of global health problems and the development of sugar substitutes, people actively reduce the use of sugar, so the growth rate of global sugar consumption is slow. The following figure clearly shows that the global sugar consumption power has been insufficient since 20 12, and the global sugar consumption is on a slow upward trend from 20 13 to 20 16.
Figure The global sugar consumption increased slowly, and even declined in 20 17 years (source: Prospective Industry Research Institute).
Although the increase is slow, it is insignificant compared with the decline of supply: the global sugar supply surplus is reduced in 20 18/20 19, the sugar prices at home and abroad are at a low level, sugar factories are losing money and defaulting on the payment for sugarcane farmers, and various countries take different measures to protect the interests of sugarcane farmers and the normal operation of sugar factories to support the sugar prices. Therefore, many institutions predict that the global sugar supply gap will be10-200 million tons in 20/9/2020, and 20 19 will be a turning point for sugar supply at home and abroad from oversupply to short supply. Moreover, as can be seen from the figure below, the price of sugar is currently at a relatively low level, so it is very likely that the future will not be very good.
Figure 2010-2019 Global Sugar Supply and Demand Balance (Source: Cinda Futures)
Figure The current sugar is at the relative bottom (Source: GF Securities)