Among them, the related policies, such as prescription outflow, long prescription for chronic diseases, classified management of pharmacies, and approval and liberalization of designated medical insurance qualifications, have enabled retail pharmacies to obtain more opportunities to provide professional pharmacy and health services for end consumers and patients.
The promotion of professional service ability has become the knowledge of retail pharmacies. The annual report of 20 19 listed chain pharmacies shows that large chain pharmacies are undergoing transformation, constantly improving their management capabilities, speeding up network coverage, and actively exploring the development of specialized pharmacies.
Dashenlin (SH 603233, closing price: 94.5 yuan) 65438+1October 30 released the third quarter results announcement, saying that the revenue in the first three quarters of 2020 was about 10492 million yuan, up 30.49% year-on-year; The net profit was about 867 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.90%; Basic earnings per share 1.32 yuan, up 50% year on year.
According to the semi-annual report in 2020, Lin's main business is drug retail and drug wholesale, accounting for 94.95% and 3.02% of revenue respectively.
South China's pharmacies have no crowns, and the national layout has been further deepened.
The regional advantages are obvious, and the long-term expansion space is clear.
(1) self-built and M&A rhythm switching, the store age structure was obviously optimized.
The number of stores has increased steadily, and the pace of 20 19 mergers and acquisitions has obviously accelerated. In 20 19, the number of stores in the company was 4,756, up 22.58% year-on-year. The compound growth rate from 20 15 to 20 19 is 25.44%, and the company's store expansion policy is stable.
In the first half of 2020, the number of stores in the company was 52 12 (franchised stores 106), with a net increase of 456 stores (439 self-built, 2 mergers and acquisitions, 52 franchised stores and 37 closed stores). The COVID-19 epidemic has led to a slight slowdown in the pace of mergers and acquisitions, which is expected to accelerate in the second half of this year.
From a regional perspective, South China is still the focus of the company's layout. In the first half of 2020, the company expanded by self-construction, and the proportion of stores in various regions remained relatively stable. It can be seen that the construction of localization teams in various regions of the company has achieved fruitful results, and self-construction has entered a virtuous circle.
Minimize the proportion of old stores, and make efforts to build sub-new stores and acquire new stores. Judging from the age structure of stores, the inflection point of the proportion of old stores with mature operations and stable profits has become obvious. With the further increase of the proportion of old shops, it will increase the stability of the company's operation and financial level.
Large-scale mergers and acquisitions enter foreign markets.
(2) Guangdong and Guangxi are the absolute leaders, expanding in different places and opening the ceiling of scale.
South China has maintained steady growth, with revenue and profits accounting for more than 80%. In 20 14-20 19, the operating income in South China increased from 401660,000 yuan to 9.464 billion yuan, and CAGR 17.83% increased by 24.20% in 20 19, accounting for the total income of that year.
Gross profit increased from 65.438+62.5 billion yuan to 3.673 billion yuan, with CAGR of 654.38+07.73% and 2065.438+09.52%, accounting for 89.53% of the total gross profit of that year.
East China is still in a period of rapid growth, and Central China has entered a steady development.
In 20 14-20 19, the operating income in central China increased from 2120,000 yuan to 82 10/0,000 yuan, and the CAGR was 3 1. 10%, 20/kloc-0.
20 14-20 19, the operating income in east China increased from 74 million yuan to 436 million yuan, with cagr of 42.58%, and 20 19 increased by 38.22%.
According to the company's prospectus, the planned market share of Guangxi is 30%, and the planned market share of Henan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian is 15%.
Referring to the situation that Yinxintang occupies more than half of cities in Yunnan Province, it is assumed that the target market share of companies in Guangdong is 50%, the market scale growth rate in Guangdong and Guangxi is 7%, and the market growth rate in other regions is 6%.
If the company achieves its goal in 15, its market share will reach a stable ceiling, which means that the company will continue to enjoy the concentrated head bonus in the future 15, and the valuation level will be effectively supported.
(3) The regional consumption habits are special, and the advantages of ginseng antler tonic will be maintained for a long time.
Ginseng antler tonic is growing steadily with high profit rate. We combine the company's ginseng tonic with traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces business. The income of 20 12-20 19 increased from 5410 million yuan to16.52 million yuan, and the CAGR was 17.29%, accounting for the proportion of the total income of 20 19.
The market thinks that ginseng tonic can only be sold in Guangdong and Guangxi, and the high profit margin advantage brought by ginseng tonic will be gradually weakened in the process of the expansion of Dashenlin to other provinces. Orient securities analysts believe that this view does not reflect the competitive advantage of ginseng tonic construction.
First, sustainability, Guangdong and Guangxi markets are broad enough to ensure the stable profit contribution of the company's ginseng tonic.
Second, the growth, the national health care awareness is gradually mature, and the company's category advantages are expected to be grafted to the market outside the province.
Third, divergence, with the possibility of divergence, may come from the Japanese pharmacy model after the classification and promotion of pharmacies.
Fourth, relative advantages, the level of drug profit rate is limited, and the advantages of high-margin varieties are more and more obvious than those of comparable companies.
Excellent refined management ability to ensure the sustainability of expansion.
(1) has both turnover rate and profit rate, and has outstanding fine management ability.
High gross profit margin benefits from high wool varieties, and high turnover rate benefits from account management. As mentioned above, as a retail enterprise, the company's excellent management and operation ability is a concentrated expression of achieving the highest profit rate and turnover rate in the industry.
Both the floor effect and the human effect are in the forefront of the industry.
Compared with comparable companies, the proportion of salary expenses in sales expenses is high, and the proportion of salary expenses in management expenses is low.
(2) The low proportion of goodwill and abundant funds in hand ensure the sustainability of the company's expansion.
The expansion of the company is mainly self-built, and the goodwill accounts for a relatively low proportion. From 20 15 to 20 19, the company's goodwill rose from140,000 yuan to 983 million yuan, accounting for 0.53% of the total assets to1/0.34%, most of which came from 201.
Cash and cash flow are abundant.
There are many alternative financing channels and the extension expansion is guaranteed.
Adapting to the changes of pharmaceutical industry and actively developing diversified management
(1) accurate layout of pharmaceutical e-commerce, and tonics can be expanded online in different places.
According to the data of Tianyancha APP Professional Edition, there are nearly 4.3 million e-commerce related enterprises nationwide. Guangdong Province ranks first in the country with nearly 840,000 related enterprises, followed by Zhejiang Province and Fujian Province, with more than 500,000 related enterprises.
As of June 65438+1October 65438+September, China has added more than10.2 million e-commerce related enterprises this year (all in the state of enterprises).
Among them, more than110000 e-commerce related enterprises were added in the first three quarters, an increase of 65.98% over last year. In the third quarter, there were nearly 500,000 new affiliated enterprises, up 16.77% from the previous quarter.
In recent years, with the deepening of the "internet plus" and the gradual reduction of restrictions on medical e-commerce, the scale of China's Internet medical service market has shown a continuous growth trend, especially due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the medical e-commerce industry has developed rapidly, and the value of Internet medical care has become increasingly prominent.
Online multi-format layout, O2O store coverage rate is nearly 70%. By the end of 20 19, the company had more than 3,200 online O2O stores, with a store coverage rate of 67%, covering all major offline cities.
Ginseng tonic is essentially a health care product. The search and consumption habits of this category on the Internet are more mature, and the business model is more consumption-oriented. The company has a long history of sales of ginseng tonic in Guangdong Province, and has accumulated profound experience in product selection and sales. With the further opening of online channels, the company is expected to further expand ginseng tonic with the help of Internet channels.
(2) Guangdong Province took the lead in promoting the overall planning of chronic diseases, and specialized pharmacies developed rapidly.
Guangdong's open medical reform policy is conducive to the sale of prescription drugs outside the hospital.
Wuzhou actively carried out the pilot of prescription outflow and promoted it throughout the country. Relying on the third-party prescription information sharing platform, the replicable "Wuzhou Model" is expected to be promoted nationwide, and it will become a powerful interface to undertake prescription drugs outside the hospital in the future, and leading chain enterprises such as Dashenlin will further highlight the long-term terminal value.
The company's professional pharmacies have developed rapidly, and the proportion of prescription drugs has steadily increased. In order to comply with the advanced medical reform policy in Guangdong Province, the company vigorously develops specialized pharmacies. By the end of 20 19, the company had built 56 professional DTP pharmacies, an increase of 26 over the previous year. The number of prescription circulation pharmacies reached 28, an increase of 14 over the previous year.
The province has gradually completed the overall docking, and the development of slow-door pharmacies is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecast and investment advice
Revenue estimation
Orient securities analysts make the following assumptions about the company's profit forecast for 2020-2022:
1) At present, the growth of China's retail pharmacy industry is relatively stable, the competitiveness of head enterprises is gradually highlighted, and the industry has entered the stage of accelerating the head. In addition, under the background of separation of medicine and medicine, prescription outflow has brought marginal increment to retail pharmacy industry.
2) The gross profit margin of the company from 2020 to 2022 was 39.09%, 39.5 1% and 39.47% respectively.
3) The company's sales expense ratio from 2020 to 2022 was 24.6 1%, 24.79% and 24.35%, and that of management fee rate was 4.54%, 4.60% and 4.55%.
4) The company's income tax rate will be maintained at 25% from 2020 to 2022.
Capital proposal
Da Shen Lin is one of the leading enterprises in retail pharmacy industry in China. The company has formed a strong competitive barrier in South China, with mature drug consumption habits and strong profitability. It has developed rapidly in East China and Central China, and the expansion in different places is in an accelerated period.
Risk warning
Risk of passenger flow decline caused by quantity procurement: At present, domestic quantity procurement has entered the third batch. If the scope of centralized procurement policy is further expanded, the price of hospital prescription drugs will continue to decline, or consumers will return to the hospital for consumption, which will have a certain impact on the company's passenger flow.
COVID-19 has brought uncertainty to the company's operation: globally, the COVID-19 epidemic is still in the outbreak period. Although the current control in China is very strong, and the epidemic situation tends to be stable temporarily, there are still some risks. If the COVID-19 epidemic recurs, it will have a certain impact on consumers' consumption behavior, and the consumption intensity may be weakened.
The number of newly opened stores, M&A stores and franchised stores is less than expected: the company's current growth is driven by endogenous and extended stores, and the extended stores mainly rely on newly opened stores and M&A stores. If the number of newly opened stores and M&A stores is less than expected, it will cause the uncertainty of performance.
The core logic of pharmacy industry lies in the outflow of prescriptions, the improvement of concentration and the layout of e-commerce channels. Industry policy actually strengthens the core growth logic of pharmacies.
Although quantity purchasing and non-drug verification have an impact on the performance of pharmacies in the short term, in the long run, leading pharmacies have turned to customer demand-oriented, and professional service ability has become the key to competition.
The dividend of the new policy is no longer like that of the previous two decades, and pharmacies can enjoy it in an inclusive way. The advantage lies in the winner after the tide of integration and the leader who is more suitable for the new era model.
In the three years since listing, the development momentum of Dashenlin has become more and more rapid, especially in the first half of this year. The revenue was 6.94 billion yuan, up 32. 14% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the mother was 595 million yuan, up 56.2 1% year-on-year. As of September 14, the total market value of Dashenlin reached 550.6438+0.4 billion.
Relying on the existing advantages and strong financial support, Dashenlin has comprehensively established value-added services such as "Internet plus medicine", established a patient-centered chronic disease management model, filed and tracked patients with chronic diseases, and regularly reminded them of all-round health management services such as medical treatment, medication and follow-up.
With the help of technology and the Internet, through the use of integration and efficiency tools, the integration of pharmacy services in Dashenlin has increased, especially the interaction between stores and members using telephone and WeChat has become closer, which has increased the stickiness of members, provided professional disease management and pharmaceutical services for members through digitalization, and managed patients and community data assets in a three-dimensional way. The idea of integrated development and the integration of online and offline of Dashenlin have accelerated the growth of business performance.
Note: The content of this article is mainly extracted from the research report of orient securities Research Institute, which is collated and pushed by Chinese and foreign industry research.