The theoretical misunderstanding is so deep that a new generation of China scholars must clarify the relationship between "political system and national rise" from the historical source of the rise of the United States. After the global financial crisis in 2008, the author went to the United States at least once a year, visited more than 10 states and dozens of counties and towns, talked with hundreds of Americans, and compiled a book, American Anxiety: Notes of a Think Tank Scholar's Investigation on the United States, which has always been the main thread of my thinking.
The real logic of the rise of the United States
The so-called "institutional advantage" is a very simple understanding of the rise of the United States. In the inertia of thinking, it seems to explain the history of the rise of the United States from a small country to a global power between the publication of the Declaration of Independence at the end of 18 and the end of the Cold War at the end of the 20th century. However, in the face of the fact that the national strength of the United States has been relatively weak in the past 20 years, this logic has become speechless: why can't the same political system guarantee the continued strength of the United States under the background of unprecedented international advantages?
The establishment of American democratic system is not "born", but has gone through a long process of evolution. According to the statistics of Thomas Day, a famous American political scientist, among the 55 founding sages who participated in the revision of the federal constitution in 1787, at least 45 held state bonds, 14 engaged in land speculation, 24 borrowed and invested,1/kloc-0 engaged in trade and manufacturing, 35 were slave owners, and 66. At that time, most of the 4 million citizens in the United States were small farmers, debtors, small traders, farmers in remote areas, service providers and even slaves. In Dai's view, America has always been controlled by a few people rather than the general public.
Since then, the American Constitution has undergone 27 revisions, mending the rules of freedom and democracy first determined by the founding fathers, continuing the vitality of the system and shaping its attractiveness. However, among the 27 valid amendments, the former 17 amendment was passed at one time, while the other 17 amendments went through a difficult game, and some amendments were even discussed for more than 200 years. On the one hand, this process is accompanied by respect for the rights of people outside the elite. From 186 1 the abolition of serfdom in the United States to the black liberation movement led by Martin Luther King in the 1960s, blacks gradually gained equal rights to enjoy democracy. On the other hand, the revision of the American Constitution is also full of struggle and blood. This country has experienced 65,438+0 civil wars, 4 presidential assassinations, dozens of cyclical economic and financial crises and hundreds of ethnic conflicts. Finally, in the 1990s, the total industrial output value and GDP of the United States gradually surpassed that of Britain, an established global hegemonic country, and gradually became the first power in the world.
From this perspective, the growth of American national strength is accompanied by a history of political system reform, which is a history of social equality and racial struggle. System reform promotes the rise of the United States, and the rising United States constantly enhances the international appeal of its political system. From this perspective, the so-called "system first, then rise" is a simple and dogmatic misleading.
Of course, with institutional changes, there is not necessarily a rise of the country. Since18th century, France has experienced several rounds of institutional changes, including five republics and two empires, but it has never become the world's first power. The reason is that France has not grasped the strategic opportunity well in several great power competitions, and the rise of the United States is an exception.
Internationally, the rise of the United States can be roughly divided into three stages: First, its strength has gradually grown. /kloc-"Monroe Doctrine" introduced at the beginning of the 0/9th century laid the foundation for the United States to monopolize America, forcing European powers to compete for hegemony and stay away from North America. America can recuperate. Although there was a civil war in the 1960s from 65438 to 2009, on the whole, it still enjoyed the "isolationist dividend" of European powers' hegemony and the "international trade dividend" of the initial globalization. /kloc-in the 0/9th century, the European continent experienced at least eight wars, almost every big power group had a large-scale war, and the industrialization of the United States was carried out in a peaceful environment.
The second is beyond the period. The two world wars in the first half of last century promoted the status of the United States in disguise. The cannibalism of European powers in World War I finally benefited the United States. 1922 In February, the treaty of the United States, Britain, France, Italy and Japan on the limitation of naval armament, that is, the Five-Nation Naval Treaty, was signed, which enabled Britain to formally recognize the principle of the equivalence of naval forces between the United States and Britain, marking the end of Britain's maritime superiority, and the United States was on an equal footing with Britain militarily. Then, the "gold standard" system headed by the pound gradually collapsed. In World War II, more than 20 million people died in the Soviet Union, 3 million in Germany, 4.5 million in Britain, 4 million in Italy and 40 million in other small countries, and Europe was almost in ruins. 194 1 year later, the United States intervened again in the middle of the war, just like in the late World War I, and "saved" the world. After World War II, the United States carried out the Marshall Plan to rebuild the world order and establish hegemony in one fell swoop. At that time, the GDP, gross industrial output value and gold reserves of the United States once accounted for more than 60% of the world. The main idea of designing all international systems originated from the demands of American national interests.
The third is the period of hegemonic protection. In the book Hegemonic System and International Conflicts, Professor Qin Yaqing has fully expounded that the fundamental national interest of the United States in the post-war international system is to maintain the power status of hegemonic countries relative to other countries in the international system, especially those that are mainly challenging or potentially challenging, that is, to protect hegemonic status. In short, after World War II, the United States encountered challenges from Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union politically, economically and militarily, but the latter three failed in the end. After the 1990s, the world finally showed a situation of "one superpower dominating".
China can learn from the logic of the rise of the United States.
Michael H.Hunt, a famous American history professor, explained in his book America is the only country in the world why the United States can achieve hegemony, that is, the accumulation of wealth, the people's belief or sense of mission, and a strong and modern government. Under this basic condition, with the change of the current situation, successive American leaders have combined national aspirations with material resources, making the United States gradually take the leading position in the world. In the nearly 400-page book, Hande hardly mentioned the "advantages of the political system" that China's domestic public opinion paid attention to, but attributed the rise of the country to the opposite of the "system": "people" and their related operational capabilities. Professor Hand's summary is consistent with my years of experience in American studies. As many personal stories in this American anxiety show, many times, what I feel is not the so-called American institutional advantage, but the paradox and dilemma of their so-called "institutional design".
For example, China people are most familiar with the selection system of American leaders. Through the investigation of three presidential elections, I really feel that the leaders selected by the American system first do not depend on whether the candidates have the ability to lead the country or not, but often depend on their lobbying, speeches and fund-raising. Especially in the post-80s information age, the first quality requirement is "acting"! The president-elect is either an actor, such as Reagan; Or they are good speakers, such as Clinton and Obama. In the 20 16 general election, whether Hillary or Trump, the characteristics of "acting" are even worse.
It is this "institutional paradox"-on the one hand, the reform of the system constantly needs the equalization of people's empowerment, that is, everyone needs equal votes to determine the ultimate ownership of state leaders; On the other hand, the selected objects need to cater to the public's guidance, which makes it difficult for those who are real political masters, strategic masters or people with great politician potential to stand out. In the end, the whole United States has fallen into endless anxiety and confusion, and the trend of national and social division has become more and more obvious, and the decline of the country has become inevitable.
In my opinion, three important reasons for the rise of the United States are disappearing: the natural geopolitical advantages of the United States are disappearing. /kloc-In the 20th century, the United States created the geostrategic position of the world's best big country with "the east and west are oceans and the north and south are weak countries" through various means such as purchase, deception and occupation. However, the trend of informationization, internetization and supersonic speed in 2 1 century has made the United States "zero distance" from the rest of the world, making it "biased" like the first half of the last century, and even the possibility of winning by "picking up cheap goods" is getting smaller and smaller. In fact, during Obama's administration, there was a diplomatic trend of "isolationism" in the United States, but the United States could not isolate itself from the whole world, nor could it forget the regional problems aggravated by its own intervention, let alone be immune to the world where extremism and terrorism prevailed. As American scholar David Mei Sen said in the book The End of the American Century, excessive expansion has greatly consumed American capital. Gradually, Eisenhower's American prediction surfaced: "We will destroy ourselves in the futile search for absolute security." Of course, the "destruction" here means that the United States is no longer so powerful.
America's ability to seize historical opportunities is declining. Every time a historical opportunity comes, whether it is the American Civil War or the two world wars, the United States is very good at grasping the gap. At the moment when strategic mistakes may occur, avoid making mistakes and don't let fleeting opportunities slip away. After the end of World War II, Germany, Japan and the Soviet Union successively made domestic political and economic strategic mistakes. American strategists and decision makers seized the flaws of their competitors and made a strong strategic counterattack, successfully safeguarding American hegemony. However, after the end of the Cold War, American gifts seemed to be returned to God, so that brzezinski, a great American strategist, directly described Clinton, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush as "lack of strategic understanding and poor performance of world leadership" in his book "Second Chance" in 2008. Unfortunately, Obama also failed to seize the "second chance" mentioned by Brinell. Facing the global "political awakening", American leadership is really "disastrous".
Third, the absolute advantage of the United States in recruiting and cultivating talents is gradually disappearing. Although the United States still leads the world in attracting talents, according to a large number of data from American scholar David Mei Sen, the decline of education level is becoming an important reason for the decline of American competitiveness and international prestige. In the 20 16 US presidential election, Trump's popularity and the long-term neck-and-neck relationship between "socialist" Sanders and Hillary Clinton were all due to the rise of populism. On the other hand, populism is based on the declining educational level and literacy of Americans, which leads to the lack of rational groups. There is a lot of evidence that in the last century, the pragmatism, entrepreneurship, efficiency, scientific and technological innovation and scientific research investment of the United States lagged behind other powerful countries, and some indicators even lagged behind emerging countries such as India and China. The author learned from a survey in South Korea that the number of young students studying in South Korea surpassed that of the United States for the first time in 20 14, which also reflected the decline of American education from one side.
Looking at the United States, we must adhere to the China standards
From these disappearing "rising forces", we can truly evaluate the role of institutions in the development of the United States. Twenty years after the publication of The End of History, Fukuyama wrote Political Order and Political Decline, which comprehensively reflected and revised the previous theories, and this reflected the so-called "institutional superiority theory" outlined by some China people before, more like theoretical boasting, conceit and conceit when the "end of history" was pushed to the extreme.
More than 200 years of American political history is actually the history of institutional development. These include1system debate at the end of the 8th century,1serfdom discussion in the middle of the 9th century, progressive movement at the beginning of the last century, democratic conceit at the end of the last century, and 2 1 democratic reflection at the beginning of the century. To truly evaluate the status of the American system is not to deny American democracy, but to rethink the significance of the political system to the rise of the country.
Surpassing "institutional determinism" is a kind of negative thinking logic, and then analyzes the forces that support the United States to maintain its advantages for a long time. This will not only enhance the confidence of China society, but also provide a new reference for continuously promoting and maintaining China's rising energy. In short, China's geographical disadvantage relative to the United States is no longer so obvious. The new Asia-Europe geopolitics created by the Belt and Road Initiative is becoming a new driving force for China's development; On this basis, China will seize opportunities abroad and cultivate talents at home, and its rising momentum will be maintained for a long time.
Looking at the anxiety of Americans and American society from this perspective is not only an important angle to observe the changes of domestic politics and foreign policy in the United States, but more importantly, we can find the secret to support China's sustainable development from the anxiety of the United States. This is also the starting point of setting the theme of this book as "American anxiety".
Since Queen China came to China in 1784, the oldest countries on both sides of the Pacific Ocean have established relations with the youngest countries. How to deal with the relationship between these two countries has always been one of the most important bilateral relations in the Asia-Pacific region. However, for China, "how to look at the United States" is always a difficult target to calibrate. In particular, we should abandon the two thinking dimensions of "beautification" and "dissimilarity" as much as possible.
The so-called "beautification" began with the Chinese translation of names in the United States of America. China has translated more than 60 American names, such as America, merica and Millikan. Finally, he chose "beautiful country" to define it, which somewhat reflected China people's fascination with the United States. The result of infatuation is disappointment. In the early years of the Republic of China, China adopted a system of separation of powers similar to that of the United States, but it soon failed; During the May 4th Movement, President Wilson was the hope of young students in China, but the Paris Peace Conference awakened China people. 1945 China people thought that the United States would really mediate, but the result was "Farewell to Si Tuleideng". From the historical experience, China must look at the United States in a way of "de-beautification" and "de-Americanization", so as to get more objective results.
The so-called "dissimilarity" means that the social systems, ideologies and lifestyles of China and the United States are completely different, and China and the United States are regarded as two completely different civilization systems. This led China people to see the "polarization" of the United States. First, close to the United States, and even advocate becoming a country like the United States politically, economically and socially; The second is to maintain independence and uniqueness relative to the United States, so as to oppose and guard against every kind of beauty. This makes the United States often wander at both ends of the number axis of China's world view, and can't find any points.
Over the past 30 years, the development of China has actually taken a relatively "de-Americanization" road, while absorbing the experience of the United States. On the basis of widely soliciting public opinions and publicity system, China has implemented grass-roots elections, serving in different places, promoting civil servants and collective leadership system, and gradually formed a road of political system reform with its own characteristics.
The United States is still the largest power in the world, but this does not mean that China is still completely behind the United States. Compared with the United States, China's position in every field is different, and some have surpassed the United States, such as the total industrial output value and trade volume. As this book says, the gap between China and the United States is the least; The strength of educational science and technology is second, and the trend of catching up is very obvious; The biggest gap is military and financial strength. But surpassing the United States is not the goal. Finding the essence of China's development from the perspective of the United States is what scholars call the real mission.
From this perspective, it is even more necessary to apply the old saying: the revolution has not yet succeeded, and comrades still need to work hard.