In April, everyone was still speculating when the pig price bottomed out, but with the rapid rise of the pig price in May, whether it could "break 8" became a new guess.

In June, the pig price really "broke 8", and then everyone had new expectations for the pig price, that is, can the pig price "break 10"?

First, the price of pigs continues to rise, and the storage is getting lower and lower.

Since the pig price rose at the end of April, it can be said that it was on a rocket, but after the pig price broke 8 in one fell swoop, the upward trend remained unchanged, and many places were sprinting to 9 yuan.

Contrary to the increase in pig prices, the auction rate of pork storage is getting higher and higher.

Since the central purchasing and storage started at the beginning of March this year, it has started 12 rounds, planned to purchase and store 478,000 tons, and actually traded 106 and 54.38+04 million tons.

On the whole, it shows the "three highs" trend of high frequency, high reserve and high beat rate.

In the past, the transaction rate of purchasing and storage was high because the price of pigs was low at that time, and purchasing and storage was the lifeline of the pig market. However, since the fourth round of purchasing and storage, the auction rate has been increasing. Until the recently concluded 12 round of purchasing and storage, the transaction volume was zero, which means that the auction rate is 100%.

The continuous auction of purchasing and storage, and the rise in pig prices, at least reflects two problems:

First of all, the improvement of auction rate at this time has little to do with the high requirements for purchasing and storage, so it is difficult for enterprises to meet the standards. Or the most direct reason why the auction rate continues to be high at this time is the market's bullish sentiment towards the subsequent pig market.

Secondly, at this time, the impact of purchasing and storage on pig prices is getting smaller and smaller, but whether purchasing and storage will be suspended may not depend on the auction rate, but more on the price comparison of pig food and the productivity changes of fertile sows.

However, according to the previous forecast of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the pig price will improve in the second half of the year, and it is possible to stop shooting at that time.

Second, can the pig price "break 10"?

After the pig price successfully "broke 8", the market had a higher pursuit for the subsequent pig price.

Many people think that the second half of the year is the peak season for pork consumption, so it is hopeful that the pig price will "break 10" in the second half of the year.

Mu Yuan, a big pig farmer, said earlier that the pig price is expected to reach 18-20 yuan/kg in the second half of the year, which is 9- 10 yuan/kg.

So, can this expectation be realized?

This should be viewed from three aspects:

First of all, the supporting factor behind this judgment is not only the increase in pork consumption, but also an important factor, which is that the previous pig price continued to be low, which made a large number of retail investors eliminated, and the market was mainly concentrated in large enterprises.

When the scale of enterprises shrinks, the market will form a situation of declining supply. At this time, the superimposed consumption will rise, thus pushing up the pig price.

On the other hand, the production capacity has returned to normal, and coupled with the continuous rainy weather this year, a number of pig farms have been flooded due to continuous heavy rains in the south not long ago.

In addition, continuous rainfall is not conducive to the transportation of pigs, which makes the slaughter of pigs limited.

Judging from these two factors, the pig price is expected to "break 10" in the second half of the year.

But once again, it needs to be reminded that the rise of pig price is not necessarily proportional to profit, which means that even if the pig price rises, the breeding cost is also rising, and finally the profit of farmers still fluctuates near the cost line.

Third, why is raising pigs no longer profiteering?

First of all, pig breeding is not a profiteering industry. The profiteering in the previous two years was a special case, because the superposition of environmental protection and swine fever led to a sharp drop in production capacity, and the serious "lack of pigs" in the market led to a sharp increase in prices.

From a normal point of view, after experiencing the ups and downs of production capacity, we are more concerned about the fluctuation of production capacity and will intervene in advance, so it is unlikely that there will be another ups and downs.

Secondly, although large-scale farming has developed rapidly in recent years, the proportion of retail investors in China is still not low, and retail investors are more flexible, that is, it is easier to come and go. Therefore, after the pig price picks up, it is not excluded that retail investors will quickly re-raise; On the other hand, enterprises of all sizes are also rapidly expanding their production capacity in order to occupy more market share.

So from this perspective, there is no shortage of pigs in the market.

Third, the overall standardization level of pig breeding in China needs to be improved, and there is still a gap of 10%-30% compared with developed countries.

Coupled with the low degree of industrialization and poor linkage between industrial chains, most of the risks are still concentrated in the breeding process, so it is easy to appear the phenomenon of "rushing headlong into a herd and dispersing in a hubbub", which leads to market fluctuations.

Finally, it is still a consumption issue. Generally speaking, pork consumption is decreasing year by year, and people's consumption of cattle, sheep, poultry and seafood is gradually increasing. On the other hand, the income of many people affected by the epidemic fell this year, and the market consumption dropped significantly after the price of pork rose to more than ten yuan.

Coupled with the rising oil price, the wallet is tighter.

So this year's pig market depends not only on how much the pig price can rise, but also on the changes in price and cost. In other words, the current pig market is no longer a question of pig price, but who can better control the cost, so that others can make a profit when they are in 9 yuan, and you can also make a profit when you are in 8 yuan. You are the winner.

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