The main characteristics are: the real estate price fluctuates greatly, there is no stable cycle and frequency, and the money supply in the real estate economic system increases sharply in the short and medium term.
There are three reasons for the "bubble" of real estate: excessive speculation by investors; Consumers and investors predict that the future price will be high; Irrational expansion of bank credit.
Once the real estate "bubble" bursts, it may lead to the imbalance of economic structure and social structure, trigger a financial crisis and even a political and social crisis.
Theoretical definition
One of the most theoretical definitions of the real estate bubble is probably this: "It refers to the continuous rise of real estate prices out of the market base caused by real estate speculation and other factors, that is, the prices of land and houses are extremely high, which is inconsistent with their use value (market base value). Although the book value has increased very high, it is actually difficult to achieve, forming a false prosperity on the surface.
It has also been pointed out that the real estate bubble mainly refers to "relatively high housing prices and relatively high vacancy rate". Housing prices are far from market and personal needs, and the vacancy rate is far from economic and social support.
In fact, it is not that the house price is relatively high, but it is too high, far exceeding its value and ordinary manpower.
House price is really the main manifestation of the real estate bubble, just like the stock price and the overall price level, so I am very simple when answering some people's questions. The real estate bubble is that housing prices are too high, not only absolute prices, but also relative prices, which the whole society can't bear, maybe for a year or two, but for a long time.
The persistent hyperinflation caused by overheated investment can be understood as that the rapid growth of an industry, especially the excessive price inflation, is a bubble of industry growth, but the bubbles of some particularly important industries (such as real estate, automobiles and high-tech industries) can evolve into bubbles of the overall economy.
Bubbles in some industries are not directly reflected in the rising prices of products in this industry, such as automobiles and high-tech industries. When the bubble appears, its own price (the price of products can be continuously falling) does not rise, but is inevitably accompanied by the expansion of investment and consumer demand. However, indirect sustained price increases are always inevitable, such as through stock prices.
The particularity of the real estate bubble is that its bubble performance is generally reflected in two aspects: house price and stock price, such as the real estate bubble in the 1980s and the real estate bubble in Hong Kong. There are two main reasons for the poor performance of China real estate stocks at this stage: first, the whole stock market is in a downturn, which has curbed the speculation of real estate stocks; Second, despite the prosperity of real estate, the performance of listed real estate companies in China is generally poor.
standard
We summarize the criteria for judging the real estate bubble as "five highs", that is, investment continues to grow at a high level, consumption continues to grow at a high level, house prices continue to rise sharply, real estate investment accounts for a high proportion, and the ratio of house prices to income is obviously high.
These "five highs" are generally strongly related, not only high, but also persistent "high"
The continuous standard we define is more than 2 years in a row.
The boundary between high and ultra-high is roughly as follows: the so-called ultra-high growth of investment and consumption means that the annual growth rate of real estate investment and consumption exceeds twice the GDP growth rate; The first is that the absolute price is high, and the second is that the house price is growing too fast in the short term, and the average annual growth rate of house prices reaches or approaches 2 digits; The proportion of real estate investment is greater than 25%; A high ratio of house price to income means more than 6: 1, or even more than 8: 1.
According to the above standards, there is a real estate bubble in China, and it is still serious in some areas.
China real estate bubble, sustained and ultra-high investment growth.
Real estate investment has maintained a growth rate close to or exceeding 20% for three consecutive years, and it is accelerating year by year. Accordingly, it can be considered that the current real estate investment has shown a more obvious overheating tendency.
In 2000, the growth rate of real estate investment in China was 19.5%, and it rose to 27.3% from 5438+0 in 2006 (the monthly data of the National Bureau of Statistics was 25.3%), and rose from 1 to1in 2002, with an increase of 28.3%.
Among them, residential investment grew rapidly, with an increase of 25.8% in 2000, 28.9% in 200 1 year, and 29.5% in 2002 from 1 to1year.
In terms of regions, the overheated investment in the eastern region is obvious, with an increase of 2 1.7%, 25.2% and 28.2% respectively in three years. This three-year investment growth of up to 20% was achieved with a high base. Although the central and western regions have maintained high growth for three consecutive years, due to the low base, they are in the early stage of real estate development, and the excessive standard can be set at 35%-40%.
Consumption continues to grow at an ultra-high speed.
The sales growth of commercial housing has maintained a high growth rate of 20% for four consecutive years, of which the growth rate reached about 30% for three consecutive years from 2000 to 2002, indicating that the overall housing consumption in the country has been overheated.
The sales of commercial housing increased by 23.9% in199, by 30. 1% and by 29.4% in 2000-200 1 year respectively. Before 2002, the monthly growth continued to accelerate, reaching 37.4%.
House prices continue to rise sharply or remain high.
In this round of real estate boom, house prices have generally reached a big step. In some places where investment and consumption are overheated (mostly in coastal areas), house prices have skyrocketed, which has obviously exceeded the affordability of most consumers (see Table 2- 1- 1).
The increase of house prices varies greatly from region to region. Overall, the eastern provinces and cities continue to grow substantially, and a few areas in the central and western regions grow too fast, but the growth rate of house prices in most central regions is obviously lower than the national average.
1997-2002, the sales price of commercial housing increased the fastest (and both exceeded 30%) in Guangxi (54.43%), Yunnan (53. 13%), Liaoning (46.23%) and Ningxia (41.68).
In this 1 1 area, there are 5 in the east, 4 in the west and only 2 in the middle.
The absolute price and increase rate of house prices in the central region are obviously less than that in the whole country, and the two regions with the fastest increase rate of house prices are all low in the past (especially in Henan Province).
The areas with the highest price increase are the eastern region and the western region, and the areas with the highest price increase in the eastern region are concentrated in the eastern region. In fact, the overheated housing investment and consumption in Guangdong and Beijing can't really be reflected in the price increase in recent years. This is because: first, the statistics of house prices are not calculated by weighted average, and there is a problem of low statistical average price; Second, the absolute housing prices in Beijing and Guangdong are very high. Before that, the price of commercial housing in Beijing rose by 4 1.59%, for example, only 1.997.
Shaanxi and Yunnan are the regions with the fastest price increase in the western region. Yunnan is influenced by the western development and the World Horticultural Exposition.
In fact, the increase of house prices in Chongqing and Sichuan during this period is not significant, but the average value masks the excessive increase of house prices in some areas, and the increase of house prices in Chongqing and Chengdu, Sichuan is very rapid.
Generally speaking, the real estate fever reflected by the rapid rise of housing prices is mainly concentrated in Beijing, East China coastal areas, Guangdong and Liaoning, as well as Chongqing, Chengdu, Sichuan, Xi, Shaanxi and Yunnan in the west.
Real estate investment accounts for a high proportion.
Judging from the proportion of real estate investment, in recent years, the proportion of real estate investment in total investment (excluding collectives and individuals, the same below) has been rising, which has shown an over-investment tendency.
In June 2002, 5438+0- 1 1 real estate investment accounted for 23.85% of the total investment, while in June, 5438+0998 was 17. 12%, an increase of 6.73 percentage points in four years.
Over-reliance on real estate for investment is a hidden danger of further economic growth, which is becoming more and more prominent in some areas.
Most of the areas where investment and economy rely too much on real estate are concentrated in developed coastal areas and a few western regions.
Before 2002 1 1 month, the proportion of real estate investment in the whole eastern region has exceeded 30.78%, so there is excessive real estate investment in the eastern region as a whole.
Beijing is the highest, with real estate investment accounting for 60.89% of the total investment, followed by Shanghai (38.5%), Guangdong (38.38%), Chongqing (33.0%) and Liaoning (3 1. 19%).
In addition, Fujian (28.08%), Jiangsu (23.72%), Tianjin (23.64%) and Sichuan (23.55%) all exceeded 20%.
For example, the proportion of real estate investment in Beijing's total investment has exceeded 60%, an increase of 3.24 percentage points over the previous year. If the growth of housing consumption drops significantly, it will drive the growth of real estate investment to drop sharply, which will have a great impact on economic growth. Shanghai, Guangdong, Liaoning, Chongqing and other cities also have such problems.
This index is an important measure to measure whether the real estate investment in a region is too high. If we combine the high growth rate of real estate investment and consumption with the high proportion of investment, then we can be sure that there is overheating or overinvestment. On the contrary, if the proportion of investment is still not high, not exceeding 20%, there will be a period of high growth in investment and consumption, and prices will not rise rapidly, so it cannot be said that it is overheating, but it may happen in some places in these areas.
According to this index, real estate investment in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Chongqing and Liaoning is obviously overheated; Overheating in other areas occurs in local areas, mainly provincial capitals or other big cities.
The ratio of house price to income is obviously high.
At present, the ratio of house price to income in China is obviously high, and the problem of short-term internal force shortage will become more and more prominent.
Many scholars use the ratio of house price to income to measure whether there is a bubble, which is actually not completely correct or not comprehensive enough.
The high ratio of house price to income has two meanings. First, because prices are rising faster than residents' income, the ratio of house price to income is rising year by year, reaching an unprecedented height. Second, it refers to the static high level, which just shows the lack of strength. For example, in some economically underdeveloped areas, if the price of a mid-range commercial house is 200,000 yuan, but the per capita income in this area is quite low, such as 3,000 yuan, and the income of a family of three is 9,000 yuan, then the ratio of house price to income at this time is as high as 20 times. If this static ratio of house price to income is used to measure whether there is a real estate bubble in this area, the conclusion is quite positive. But in fact, this situation may not form a bubble, because few people come to these commercial houses in this area. Only when the ratio of house price to income is very high, driven by investment or speculation, people take risks and buy a large number of such commercial houses, can it be considered as a bubble, that is, when the ratio of house price to income must appear at the same time as the high demand growth rate, can it be judged that there is a bubble.
It is also the failure to see this that leads some people to conclude that the bubble in the western region is greater than that in the eastern region.
We believe that the current statistics of housing prices are an inaccurate data. In many places, everyone feels that house prices have risen sharply, but the statistical results have not increased much. For example, housing prices in Beijing have been rising in recent years, but the statistical results show that they are declining. Because of this, we should be especially careful when comparing the ratio of house price to income vertically. For example, the ratio of house price to income in most areas of China is higher than the current data of 1998, which may be true in some areas.
Although there is such a problem, static horizontal comparison can explain the problem.
In 2002, the highest ratio of house price to income was in Liaoning Province (1 1.5), followed by Beijing (1 1.0), Yunnan (10.6), Shanghai (9.9) and Tianjin (8.9).
It can be generally believed that the real estate in these areas or some cities is overheated.
But this indicator should be combined with other indicators, such as whether the statistical house price really reflects the actual house price, and should be analyzed in combination with the growth of investment and consumption.
Based on the above-mentioned "five high" standards, there is indeed a regional real estate bubble in China, mainly concentrated in the eastern region, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Liaoning, Guangdong and Zhejiang.
Some central cities in a few western regions, such as Chongqing, Sichuan, Shaanxi and other provinces and cities, also have certain bubbles.
Current situation of China
China Academy of Social Sciences issued the Green Paper on Housing: Report on Housing Development in China on February 8, 2065438 (20 10-20 1 1).
The report shows that the housing price bubbles in large and medium-sized cities in China are too big this year, and some cities have too big housing price bubbles.
Through the comparative analysis of the centralized transaction prices of ordinary commercial housing in the second-class lots (urban ordinary lots) of 35 large and medium-sized cities in September 20 10, the Green Paper found that the average housing price bubble of ordinary commercial housing was 29.5%, of which 7 cities accounted for more than 50% of the actual price, and 1 1 cities accounted for 30%-50% of the actual price.
According to the Green Paper, the top seven cities with the highest bubble index are Fuzhou, Hangzhou, Nanning, Qingdao, Tianjin, Lanzhou and Shijiazhuang.
The foam components in these cities account for more than 50% of the actual price ratio.
The house price bubble index represents the proportion of the price bubble in the actual house price.
The greater the bubble index, the greater the bubble component in urban housing prices.
The Green Paper points out that the prediction of the housing price bubble index will inevitably be interfered by the accuracy of the data, and because the data of some cities, especially the housing price data, are not completely accurate, the housing price bubble index may still be exaggerated or reduced, so it is impossible to further infer the trend of housing prices only based on the size of the housing price bubble.