The acquisition of GM's factory mainly stems from the need of Great Wall Motor's overseas strategy and its expansion ability brought about by its great success in China market; GM, the automobile giant, sold its factory mainly because of the pressure of falling sales, the transformation of the new four modernizations and the plan to save costs.
During this period, another exciting thing happened: on the evening of February 10, Geely announced that it was exploring the possibility of merging with Volvo. The restructured assets will be merged into the Hong Kong listed company of Geely Automobile and will be considered for listing in Sweden in the future.
I still remember that on March 30th, 20 10, many media colleagues and I attended the press conference of Geely's acquisition of Volvo led by Chairman Li Shufu in Beijing. He said, "In the future, Geely Automobile and Volvo Automobile are brothers, not father and son." Now, the brothers are United in profits, and two powerful forces work together to take another step away from the position of a world-class automobile giant.
In contrast, in the American market, the traditional automobile giants are declining; In the China market, the giants in the emerging automobile market have laid a solid foundation. However, for China automobile companies, the future is not smooth, especially in the China market where they live. Once out of favor, they will be defeated.
1 the dilemma of the three American auto giants
In terms of sales volume, the Big Three are still behemoths. In 20 19, GM's global sales volume was 7.74 million vehicles, down 8% year-on-year, ranking fourth in the world, second only to Volkswagen, Toyota and Renault-Nissan Alliance. Ford Motor's global sales volume was 4.9 million vehicles, down 7.7% year-on-year, ranking sixth, second only to Hyundai Kia. Fiat Chrysler's global sales volume was 44,654,388+0.8 million, down 9% year-on-year, ranking eighth, second only to Honda.
But from the perspective of the capital market, the three giants are gradually declining. Tesla delivered 367,000 vehicles in 20 19. By February of 17, its market value had reached144 billion US dollars, which was 3.6/kloc-0 billion US dollars higher than the sum of GM's 49.6 billion US dollars, Ford's 3.2/kloc-0 billion US dollars and Fiat Chrysler's 26.2 billion US dollars.
This is enough to show that Tesla represents the future development trend of the automobile market.
General Motors is gradually withdrawing from the right-hand drive car market, which accounts for 25% of the global car market. In addition to selling the factory in Thailand to Great Wall Motor, the Chevrolet brand will be withdrawn from the Thai market at the end of the year. In 20021year, Horton brand will be abolished from Australian and New Zealand markets, focusing on profitable China and North America markets. In addition, at the same time of global restructuring, GM is planning to transform, with emphasis on electrification and automation.
Fiat Chrysler's problem is more serious than GM's because it is profitable in the North American market and has losses in the European market and the Asian market. In 20 19, it lost 6.6 million dollars in Europe and 39.6 million dollars in Asia, especially in China, a market that Volkswagen, Toyota and General Motors attach great importance to. In 20 19, the cumulative sales volume of GAC Fiat Chrysler was 73,907 vehicles, down 409.6% year-on-year, resulting in the vacancy rate of its factory with an overall design capacity of 328,000 vehicles as high as 77.5%.
The situation of Ford Motor Company is the most tragic. The net profit in 20 19 was only $47 million, which was 99% lower than the $3.68 billion in 20 18. In the China market, the annual sales volume of Changan Ford 20 183987 was 183987, down 5 1% year-on-year, which has been marginalized. However, it is more difficult to revive the China market than Ford, because Ford cannot solve the UAW problem. For example, in the fourth quarter of 20 19, Ford spent $2.2 billion on the cost of one-time pension.
Similarly, it is difficult for GM and Fiat Chrysler to avoid the demands of UAW and workers for high hourly wages, high benefits, high pensions, medical insurance and profit sharing. This is also the reason why Tesla and Fuyao Glass resolutely rejected UAW.
To some extent, UAW, founded in 1935, is more like trying to turn American factories into defenders of collective ownership. The factory belongs to the workers, and the profits created will naturally serve them.
However, under the pressure of rising costs, it is foreseeable that GM's transformation is more like a struggle, unless fully automated production is realized in a few years, making UAW useless.
You know, in September of 20 19, due to the closure of the Lowtown factory, which was originally used to produce Chevrolet Cruze, GM broke out in the United States during the 12 period, with 48,000 people participating, resulting in the closure of 33 automobile factories and 22 parts distribution warehouses in the United States. More than a month later, GM compromised with UAW, promising to invest $7 billion in electric pickup trucks and battery power systems, and increase or retain 9,000 jobs in the United States. The strike cost GM $3.6 billion.
The latest maps of the Great Wall and Geely.
Compared with the three American auto giants threatened by trade unions, it is difficult for them to turn over. The advantages of China automobile enterprises are quick decision-making, strong innovation ability, products that can better meet the actual needs of consumers, stronger sense of science and technology, more flexible marketing, and more cost advantages with the increase of scale. Therefore, representative enterprises such as Great Wall Motor and Geely Automobile can continue to expand.
Many people in the industry regard Great Wall Motor as Toyota in China and Geely Automobile as Volkswagen in China.
After Great Wall Motor's global sales in 20/KOOC-0/9 exceeded/KOOC-0/060,000 vehicles, on February/KOOC-0/2, 2020, Great Wall Motor released the sales data of 2020/KOOC-0/month. The total sales volume of Great Wall Motor in June 5438+ 10 was 8026 1, of which the sales volume of Haval, WEY, Euler and Great Wall pickup trucks were 58720, 6395, 1342 1 respectively, and the export sales volume increased by18.30.
In addition to the four independent brands, Great Wall Motor and BMW set up a joint venture company with a share ratio of 50:50. Due to the equality and complementarity of this cooperation, the birth of Beam Automobile has also become a "turning point" in the history of China automobile joint venture.
However, in Wei Jianjun's eyes, participating in the global market competition and winning is the eternal only way.
WEY brand plans to enter the European market in 20021year and the North American market in 2023, and is committed to becoming a world-class high-end brand.
The Haval brand, together with Great Wall EV, recently announced its official entry into the Indian market at the Delhi Auto Show in India, and radiated its products to neighboring countries with the help of the acquired General Motors Tarigon factory in India. Now Great Wall Motor has announced the acquisition of GM's manufacturing plant in Luo Yong, Thailand, which can spread to ASEAN and Australia. In addition, Great Wall Motor's first overseas full-process vehicle factory, Russia Tula Factory, which was put into operation on 20 19, has gradually formed a global R&D pattern of "seven countries and ten places" and a global production layout of "9+5".
Geely automobile is also booming. However, unlike Great Wall Motor's strategy of seizing the Asian, African and Latin American markets in advance with brands such as Haval and focusing on WEY and beam, Geely is better at capital operation.
Holding hands with Volvo/KLOC for 0/0 years, we not only jointly built Lexus and Polaris, but also played a brilliant role in business merger and asset restructuring.
In addition, when the outside world is still settling accounts for Geely's investment of 9 billion US dollars in 20 19, Geely announced the establishment of a global joint venture company "smart Motor Automobile Co., Ltd." with Mercedes on June 8, 2020. Recently, it was reported that its factory had settled in Xi 'an.
It can be said that the master's tricks are dazzling. Inadvertently looking back, Li Shufu already owns more than a dozen brands.
The global layout of Geely Automobile has achieved initial results. In the field of civil vehicles, Geely, Lectra and Volvo have formed a combination from low to high, with Lotus as a sports car as a supplement. In the field of new energy vehicles, there are Geometric Cars, London Electric Cars and Polar Star brands. Importantly, both traditional commercial vehicles and electric commercial vehicles are involved. In addition, more importantly, Geely is also a leader in the field of travel, including flying cars. On February 18, unconfirmed news said that Geely would invest 300 million US dollars in Weilai Automobile. ...
Compared with Great Wall Motor, Geely Automobile has more overseas experience in culture, law, trade unions, access and resources, but for most domestic car companies, compared with 10 years ago, it has made little progress and is still ignorant.
Risks in the domestic market are increasing.
Of course, both Geely and the Great Wall are still in a global layout, far from reaching the strength of confronting multinational giants. Although the decline of American Big Three and other traditional car companies is an opportunity for China car companies, we can't ignore the market acceptance of Volkswagen, Toyota, Renault Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance and Honda, Hyundai, Mercedes-Benz and BMW, which are the top three global sales in 20 19.
More importantly, as a fundamental, the uncertainty of China market is increasing.
According to the statistics of key enterprise groups of China Automobile Association, the automobile production and sales in June 2020 were 1.783 million vehicles and 1.94 1 10,000 vehicles, respectively, which decreased by 33.5% and 27.0% from the previous month and by 24.6% and 18.0% from the same period last year. This year's Spring Festival holiday is 1 month, and the effective working day is 17 days, 5 days less than last year; In addition, considering that some units have holidays in advance, the lack of effective working days is the main reason for the decline in production and sales this year 1 month.
According to the statistics of China Automobile Association, as of February 12 and 183, 59 vehicle production bases have resumed production, accounting for 32.2%. However, these 59 resumption enterprises are not aimed at all employees, and many enterprises are aiming at a small number of employees in a semi-resumption state.
Especially in February and the whole first quarter, due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the sales data is not optimistic. Although it is expected that there will be a wave of make-up after the epidemic, the annual sales will still decline. Due to the epidemic situation, on February 17, the China Organizing Committee of Automobile announced that the auto show scheduled for the end of April would be postponed.
In addition to the epidemic factors, the entire China automobile market is in a period of adjustment, and it will take some time to bottom out. Congestion in big cities, in particular, cannot be eliminated in the short term. If the purchase restriction policy is not greatly adjusted or even stricter, residents' enthusiasm for car purchase cannot be released. Therefore, in the case of overcapacity, the competition for customers will be more intense.
For independent brands, with the joint venture brand changing its course, paying more attention to and even making changes for the China market, launching a wave of electric vehicle offensive, and failing to improve the quality and brand, a large number of independent brands will die.
It can be seen that powerful companies such as General Motors are constantly closing factories, downsizing and seeking the transformation of electrification and automation. Geely, which is well-funded, constantly plans the technical cooperation of all its brands to reduce costs and improve efficiency. Some car companies that only care about the immediate sales volume, but the sales volume is very small, have no tomorrow today, how to enter the new four modernizations and talk about the future?
The key to saving the market is self-help.
At present, there is a renewed call for relaxing car purchase restrictions in the auto market, and Foshan takes the lead in subsidizing car buyers. By promoting automobile consumption and releasing the enthusiasm for buying cars, the overall environment seems to show signs of improvement. In particular, the top management said that "it is necessary to actively stabilize traditional mass consumption such as automobiles, encourage areas where automobile purchases are restricted to appropriately increase the number of automobile license plates, and drive the consumption of automobiles and related products." It has brought more beautiful reverie to the automobile market. 17 February, auto stocks rose sharply.
As for the specific effect, it depends on the implementation of policies and requirements in various places. However, it is impossible to reproduce the prosperity of subsidizing new energy in the past. After all, under the heavy subsidy, many people cheat and play with tickets, but not many people really do things. In ten years, they spent more than 300 billion subsidies, with little effect.
Therefore, the subsidy policy in the future can be used as a lesson to avoid sending money directly to manufacturers. Purchase tax relief is also a good subsidy policy, and even compulsory insurance reduction can be implemented to cancel the annual inspection system of automobiles.
For car companies, the inclusive policy is not an effective means to get rid of the competition in the Red Sea, and it can only cure the symptoms. Car companies that are at the forefront of innovation can only have the last laugh in addition to transforming to new energy and automation as soon as possible and improving product quality.
To give a simple example, many car companies have introduced many affordable car purchase policies, such as free basic maintenance for life and free basic traffic for life. However, many policies are tinkering and squeezing toothpaste, lacking a leap-forward subversive policy.
Take consumers buying cars as an example. Although there is a three-guarantee policy for cars, consumers are still scared. Before buying a car, they go online to study how to prevent being cheated. Before picking up the car, they will urge their friends to ask what precautions they must take to avoid being trapped. How to find a tutorial for maintenance and learning without wasting money ... For car companies, can all the pits for consumers to buy and use cars be eliminated? Some car companies said that it was caused by lax management of individual dealers, but it was not enough to cancel the dealers directly. Under the epidemic situation, the advantages of cloud selling cars are prominent, and Tesla's direct sales model seems to be better.
Sometimes AM Car Mirror even thinks that car companies can learn from Pinduoduo's model, free of courier fees, and return if they want. They not only robbed a lot of land from Taobao, JD.COM, Suning and other e-commerce platforms. But they even want to play Pinduoduo mode with competing products. This is the power of innovation.
Who can seize the commanding heights of new energy and automation, who can make a preemptive strike in product and model innovation, who can survive or even win in the future knockout.
If there are still car companies counting on the market to pick up, and then go back to the era when everyone ate the same pot three or five years ago and no one starved to death, it would be daydreaming. The strong will always be strong, and the weak will die. In the next three to five years, you think it will be a protracted war, but if you are wrong, it will actually be a war of annihilation, and the price of slacking off is huge. Now there are still some car companies that haven't reacted and acted. The car companies that want to survive must go to the last stop. There is no retreat, no time, and they must win!
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.