BRICs Chart and Introduction
[Edit this paragraph] Name source
The term "BRIC" was first put forward by Jim O 'Neill, chief economist of Goldman Sachs Securities Company, in the book "The World Needs Better Economic BRIC" published on October 20th, 2006/KLOC-0. In June 2003, the company predicted in the global economic report entitled "Dream with BRICS: The Road to 2050" that BRICS countries will dominate the world economy in 2050, among which: Brazil will replace Italy's economic status in 2025, with 203 1 surpassing France; Russia will surpass Britain in 2027 and Germany in 2028; If nothing happens, China may surpass the United States as the world's largest economic power in 204 1, and India may surpass Japan in 2032; The total GDP of BRIC countries may surpass that of the six western industrial countries (except Canada in G7) in 204 1 year. In this way, by 2050, the world economic structure will be reshuffled, and the new six global economies will become China, the United States, India, Japan, Brazil and Russia.
This economic report by Goldman Sachs has made China, India, Russia and Brazil, as representatives of emerging economies and leaders of developing countries, attract more attention in the world, and therefore the name BRIC has become popular all over the world.
On June 5438+February 1 day, 2005, Goldman Sachs released a new report. How stable are the BRIC countries? ) said that the BRIC countries do seem to be making faster progress than other developing countries (big or small). Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast accordingly: China will surpass the United States in 2040 (slightly faster than the forecast in 2003), while India will surpass Japan in 2033 (slightly slower than the previous forecast, because Japan's economic situation is improving).
With the birth of the new concept of "BRIC", the late former South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun led hundreds of heavyweight political and business people to launch "BRIC diplomacy"; In 2005, the G7 finance ministers' meeting invited representatives of BRIC countries to attend for the first time. Therefore, the global chessboard of multinational companies such as Toyota Motor Corporation of Japan has been redeployed. Judging from the current situation, the economic development speed of the BRIC countries is just the opposite of the alphabetical order of the word "BRIC". China is far ahead, followed by India and Russia, and Brazil is relatively tepid. From a broader perspective, the economic performance of at least the top three countries is enough to stand out among all G7 countries, and the annual "net growth" of Russia and India can exceed that of the Netherlands today. According to statistics, Russia's foreign exchange reserves have reached 280 billion US dollars, which has exceeded the sum of EU member states.
From June 14 to June 16, 2008, the first foreign ministers' meeting of BRIC countries was held in Yekaterinburg, Russia. During the meeting, the foreign ministers of the four countries held extensive discussions on the international economic and financial situation, energy security and environmental issues, disarmament and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, international trade and reform of international organizations. After the meeting, the foreign ministers of the BRIC countries will sign a joint statement, indicating the unified position of the four countries on urgent issues such as world development and international security.
Brazil-the world's raw material base
The gross national product of Brazil is the highest in Latin America. In addition to the traditional agricultural economy, the production and service industries are also booming, with natural advantages in raw material resources. Brazil has the highest reserves of iron, copper, nickel, manganese and bauxite in the world. In addition, emerging industries such as communications and finance are also on the rise. Cardoso, the former president of Brazil and leader of the Workers' Party, formulated a set of economic development strategies, which laid the foundation for the later economic revitalization. This reformed policy was later carried forward by the current President Lula, and its core contents are: introducing a flexible exchange rate system; Reform the medical and pension systems; Streamline the system of government officials. However, some critics believe that Xiao He's defeat, Xiao He's defeat, and the constant corruption and bribery within the Workers' Party have shaken the ruling foundation of the current government to a great extent. Is the economic take-off on the fertile soil of South America sustainable? The risks behind the opportunities are also enormous. Therefore, long-term investors based on the Brazilian market need strong nerves and enough patience.
China-the factory of the world
China, a central country, is the most dynamic economic region in the world, attracting the most foreign investment and becoming the production base of the largest enterprise group in the world. China has 654.380+03 billion residents, which is the most populous country in the world. Abundant, cheap and reliable labor force has promoted China's economic prosperity. In addition to the unparalleled price advantage, the quality of employed people is also constantly improving. However, there is also a crisis hidden under the engine of world economic growth. Although the Bank of China has set loan restrictions, the hidden danger of overheating has not been eliminated; The huge income scissors difference between urban and rural areas and individuals also makes the development unbalanced and endangers social stability; Environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious. In addition, the China stock market lacks an independent and effective supervision mechanism, and the government manipulates the stock market; A series of problems, such as insufficient raw materials and energy, have created bottlenecks for China's economy.
India-World Office
India is the second most populous democracy in the world, and its stock market is growing at an unprecedented scale, with more than 6,000 listed companies. In the past 20 years, India's economy has grown steadily at an average annual rate of 5.6%. Behind the economic front is a high-quality employment army. According to preliminary statistics, in the eyes of about 23 million university graduates in India, western enterprises are becoming more and more attractive. One quarter of the largest 1000 companies in the United States use software developed in India. Indian pharmaceutical industry also occupies an important position in the global market. 40% of the world's "generic drugs" (drugs whose patent period has expired) are produced in India. This industry has driven disposable personal income to rise rapidly with a double-digit growth rate. At the same time, a number of middle classes have emerged in Indian society that pay attention to enjoyment and are willing to spend. In addition, some large-scale infrastructure projects, such as the 6,000-kilometer-long expressway network and the booming export trade, have also provided powerful successors for economic development. Of course, the Indian economy also has weaknesses that cannot be ignored, such as imperfect infrastructure, high fiscal deficit, and excessive dependence on energy and raw materials. Politically, changes in social ethics and tensions in Kashmir may lead to economic turmoil.
Russia world gas station
The Russian economy, which experienced the 1998 financial crisis, is like a phoenix reborn from the ashes. In the recent international credit rating, it was rated as investment grade by Standard & Poor's, a famous securities research institution. The rise in oil and gas prices has undoubtedly put wings on the Russian economy. The exploitation and production of these two industrial veins control one-fifth of the national output today, creating 50% of the export trade output value and 40% of the national income. In addition, Russia is the largest producer of palladium, platinum and titanium. Similar to the situation in Brazil, the biggest threat to the Russian economy is also hidden in politics. Although Putin's government has successfully increased the gross national product by 30% during its five-year term, the disposable national income has also increased substantially, but the lack of democracy embodied by the government in handling the case of Jocks Oil Company has become a poison for long-term investment, which is tantamount to an invisible sword of Damocles. Although Russia has a vast territory and abundant resources, the government can't sit back and relax in the face of future development if it lacks the necessary institutional reforms to effectively curb corruption. If Russia is not satisfied with being a gas station in the world economy for a long time, it is imperative to devote itself to the process of modernization and reform and improve production efficiency. Investors should pay close attention to the changes in current economic policies, which is another important factor affecting Russian financial market besides raw material prices.
[Edit this paragraph] Economic status quo
In 2007
According to the statistics of international economic authorities, the foreign exchange reserves of developing countries, especially emerging economies, have grown rapidly, accounting for 3/4 of the world's foreign exchange reserves in 2007. China, Russia and India are both big BRIC countries. The proportion of emerging economies in the global economy rose from 39.7% in 1990 to 48% in 2006. According to purchasing power parity, the contribution rate of BRIC countries to world economic growth has reached 50%. Apart from the development of "China Speed" in BRIC countries, the average annual growth rate of Indian economy has been around 6% ~ 7% for more than a decade, and reached 8.9% in 2007. China and India have become two of the three most attractive countries for investment in the world (the other is the United States, the most developed country at present). Russia's economy has also maintained rapid development in the past seven years, with an average annual GDP growth of 7.8%, gold foreign exchange reserves reaching US$ 404.8 billion, and foreign debts of more than US$ 200 billion left over from the disintegration of the Soviet Union basically paid off ahead of schedule and re-entered the ranks of the top ten economies in the world. Brazil's development is relatively slow, and its economic growth reached 4.4% in 2007.
According to the World Wealth Report issued by Merrill Lynch and Capgemini Consulting, in 2004, there were 98,000 people in Brazil whose financial assets exceeded US$ 6,543.8+0,000, an increase of 6.5% over the previous year. 88,000 people in Russia, an increase of 4.8%; There are about 70,000 people in India, an increase of14.8%; There are about 300,000 people in China, an increase of 4.5%. The rise of the wealthy class has increased the demand for high-end goods and various financial goods.
Bric Brazil: buying high-end real estate
In Brazil, the rich, who account for only 1% of the population, have 50% of the national income, and the income gap between the rich and the poor is the largest in the world. Most rich people are big business operators in related industries such as iron ore or crude oil. They own luxury houses in big cities such as Sao Paulo or Rio de Janeiro and drive high-end imported cars such as Jaguar or Volvo. Many of them also own two cars, and the trend of buying high-end real estate is remarkable.
However, it is worth noting that the "maintenance fee" in Brazil accounts for more than 10% of the annual income. For many Brazilians, especially the middle class, the economic burden of two cars is self-evident.
Russia: Favoring Mercedes-Benz.
After the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, many rich people in Russia started out by acquiring energy-related enterprises during the privatization of state-owned enterprises. The rich in Russia account for 4% ~ 5% of the total population. There are also many people who use the chaos after the disintegration of the former Soviet Union to engage in trade or illegal economic transactions and obtain huge wealth.
In addition, due to the sharp rise in the prices of crude oil and natural gas in recent years, among the people engaged in the energy industry, the newly rich people are constantly emerging. It is said that the newly rich people whose living standard is equal to that of Europe and America account for about 20% of the total population. Russian rich and new rich are almost all concentrated in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Among high-income people, the phenomenon of buying high-end goods such as cars attracts attention. They especially like Mercedes-Benz. The increase in the number of people buying houses has also boosted car sales. Russia was the only European market where the demand for automobiles increased in 2008.
Russians' demand for tourism is also increasing. With the increase of domestic tourists, outbound tourists to Turkey, China and other neighboring countries have also increased rapidly. According to statistics, the number of Russians visiting China in 2004 increased by 29.8% compared with the previous year.
India: Join a health club
With the rapid economic development, India's new wealth with an annual income of more than 6.5438+0.8 million rupees is increasing year by year. The proportion of newly rich people in the total population has increased from 1. 1.0985 1% to 200 1 year, which is 7.3%.
With the rise of the high-income class, expensive and durable consumer goods such as cars and household appliances are extremely popular. In addition, because Indians love sweets, and the wealthy class began to prefer European and American eating habits (preferring high-calorie foods), lack of exercise and excessive calorie intake led to an increase in obesity. In order to lose weight, some rich people join slimming clubs and pay high membership fees every month.
China: Demand for luxury goods has increased.
Focusing on the coastal areas with rapid economic development, the number of rich people in China is increasing rapidly. According to the list of China's 400 richest people published by Forbes magazine in 2005, most of them are concentrated in coastal cities.
From the perspective of industry types, seven of the former 10 richest people are real estate-related industry operators. It can be seen that the rise in real estate prices has spawned many rich people. In addition, the rich engaged in emerging information technology-related industries have also squeezed into the forefront of the rankings.
Among the rich people in China, people who have bought high-end houses account for a large proportion. They are also keen on personal travel and family travel. It is said that many rich people buy gold wares, brand-name clothes, high-definition multimedia, high-grade cosmetics and even expensive high-grade golf clubs in Hong Kong.
Rich people in China go to Hongkong to buy luxury goods, because they will be subject to higher taxes and may buy counterfeit products. According to a survey conducted by the Hong Kong Tourism Board, the average spending of China mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong is HK$ 5,639, which is much higher than the average level in other regions.
The demand for eating out is also increasing. People in China always pay attention to diet, but now more and more families go to high-end restaurants on holidays. In addition, women love beauty more and more, and the demand for beauty salons, cosmetics, brand-name clothing and jewelry is also growing.
These four countries hold huge business opportunities.
Among the rich and newly rich in BRIC countries, it is common to use surplus funds to invest in the stock market. Due to the rising share prices of countries, their financial assets are accumulating rapidly. Large financial institutions in Japan, the United States and Europe have begun to enter these four countries, hoping to absorb the financial assets of the rich and the newly rich. In the populous BRIC countries, the rich and the newly rich still have room for further growth, and because of their underdeveloped capital markets, these four countries contain huge business opportunities for financial institutions in developed countries.
BRIC countries represent the future economic scale and importance. According to this report, in 2050, the gross domestic product of these BRIC countries will exceed that of the six major industrial countries, and their stock market value will increase 66 times. They will have a middle class population of 800 million, more than the middle classes in the United States, Western Europe and Japan combined. They will play a leading role in the three major markets of energy, natural resources and capital, and become the most important consumer market in the world.
About Jim O 'Neill, the inventor of BRIC countries.
Jim O 'Neill has been the chief economist of Goldman Sachs since 200 1. Graduated from the University of Sheffield and the University of Surrey.
His main research interest is the foreign exchange market. Gavyn Davies (200 1-2004), former president of BBC, rated him as the world's top foreign exchange economist in the past 10 years.
Personal: married, with two children, a fan of Manchester United F.C., and served as a non-executive director of the club in 2004-2005.
Current situation of BRIC countries (2008 /2009)
The BRIC summit will be held in Yekaterinburg, Russia in mid-June 2009. BRIC countries have a clear understanding of getting rid of their dependence on a single currency.
BRIC countries support "super-sovereign" currencies.
The proposal of the Bank of China to establish a "super-sovereign international currency" has been supported and responded by the World Monetary Fund and the United Nations, especially the BRIC countries, which are all emerging economies. Russia submitted a proposal to the G20 Summit, hoping that the IMF would consider the possibility of establishing a super-sovereign reserve currency.
The internationalization of RMB is frequent.
While China advocates "super-sovereign" currency, the activities of RMB internationalization are also very frequent. China has signed currency swap agreements with five countries including Argentina, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Belarus and Hong Kong, totaling 650 billion yuan. Previously, China signed bilateral local currency settlement with eight neighboring trading partners, including Russia. In addition, on April 8, 2009, China the State Council decided to settle in Shanghai.
"BRIC" status is bullish
According to the survey of Goldman Sachs, which initiated the title of BRIC in 2003, it is predicted that by 2027, the total GDP of BRIC countries will exceed G7, nearly 10 years earlier than the original forecast. Western countries suffered serious setbacks in the financial turmoil that began in 2008, which made the BRIC countries' GDP in the world economy increase relatively. China, Russian, Indian and Pakistani are all major emerging market countries, playing an increasingly important role in the international arena, sharing common interests and concerns and promoting their development.
[Edit this paragraph] Comparative analysis of the economic operation of BRIC countries in 2008
In 2008, the preliminary data of the gross domestic product (GDP) of BRIC countries have come out. The GDP of the four countries totaled 8,790.28 billion US dollars, of which only China accounted for 49.25%, followed by Russia, accounting for 19.06%, Brazil 17.89%, and India only had 13.79.
In terms of per capita GDP, the average per capita GDP of the four countries is $3,087.56. In 2008, the international oil price was at a historical high for a long time, the inflation rate reached double digits, and the average annual exchange rate of the ruble appreciated. Russia broke through 1 0,000 dollars, reaching 1 796.92 dollars, ranking first among the four countries, followed by Brazil with 8235.49 dollars, and China with 33 1.2 dollars ranked third.
China's population continues to rank first in the world, at 65.438+0.328 billion, followed by India's 65.438+0./kloc-0.86 billion, Brazil's 65.438+0.9/kloc-0.00 billion, and the Russian population continues to grow negatively, reaching 65.438+0.42 billion in 2008.
In terms of economic growth, China ranks first with 9.0%, followed by India with 6.0%, Russia with 5.6%, and Brazil with only 5. 1%.
[Edit this paragraph] Criticism and controversy
There are many uncertainties and assumptions in the topic of BRIC countries, which indicate that one or all of these four countries may not reach the predicted development. Some commentators believe that the lack of complete democratic systems in China and Russia may cause problems in the future. However, under the current political system in China, the efficiency of resource allocation and the improvement of productivity have been widely recognized, and the democratization process in China is slowly advancing. The possible conflict between Chinese mainland and Taiwan Province Province is one of the hidden worries. Similarly, Russia's population is declining steadily, which may affect it. Finally, the economic forecast for Brazil has been going on for decades, but so far it has not met the expectations of investors.
The BRICS countries have a large number of poor people. This will also hinder the economy, because it will affect government finances, increase social unrest and limit domestic economic demand. International conflicts, domestic instability, political policies, disease outbreaks and terrorism are all possible reasons that hinder the economic development of these countries. Finally, the economic development of BRIC countries may bring unpredictable results to the global environment.
Critics who think that the earth's carrying capacity is limited believe that under the current technology, the development of BRIC countries will have its limits.