Recently, the double blow of stocks and bonds has triggered a large-scale decline in the bond market. At the same time, the fixed income of bank wealth management is above 90%, and the net value of bank wealth management becomes very sensitive to the market. Most retail investors rushed to redeem, which triggered another decline in bank wealth management. Due to the short-term large-scale redemption of bank wealth management, there is not much liquidity, and assets need to be sold at a discount. The stampede has intensified and retail investors even fled. Smooth logic, nothing new under the sun.
1. This year, two rounds of bank financing broke the net in a large area.
The first round was in March, when the stock market fell the most. The market tortured me to death at that time. Of course, due to the adjustment of the stock market, wealth management products broke the net on a large scale, because although wealth management products had few rights and interests, the proportion of equity shares allocated to Public Offering of Fund was on the order of trillion, resulting in negative returns of 3,600 bank wealth management products on the market at that time.
Now there's another round. The main reason for this wave of market is not the decline of rights and interests, but the stampede of retail investors caused by the debt disaster. The logic is slightly different. Since June 165438+ 10, in addition to the stock market decline, the bond market decline is also rare in history.
As a result, the net value of bank wealth management products fell sharply. WIND shows that as of June165438+1October1530,000 wealth management products, more than 10000 wealth management products showed negative returns in the past week.
At the same time, according to the incomplete statistics of Founder Securities, in the statistics of net performance at the end of June compared with15, among nearly 8,000 fixed-income wealth management products, the net value of 2,600+declined. Among them, there are 22 whose net value drops by more than-1.00%, and 4 whose net value drops by more than -2.00%***.
Two characteristics, one is a wide range of financial management, and nearly one-third of the products have fallen. But the decline is relatively limited. Only 22 products fell by more than 1%, which was not that big, but it also changed the three views of bank wealth management investors. After all, investors who have bought bank wealth management have not completely changed from the inherent impression that they only redeem their money without breaking the capital, but then again, it is very common for stock fund investors to chase up and down.
2. Why did the bond market fall?
It is estimated that when the end of the year is generally the goal of economic sprint, there will always be major policies that are beneficial to the economy, such as 16 real estate financial support policy and 16 property market financial policy, as well as mortgage issuance, loan extension and other aspects of financing. What are the positive meanings? And the central economic work conference at the end of the year, the fundamentals will form overly optimistic expectations. At this time, interest rates have a basis for rising.
But at the same time, the market funds are generally tight at the end of the year, and everyone needs them. Once the market liquidity is slightly tightened and the interest rate goes up, the result is:
The specific logic of bond price decline can be seen in this article I wrote before. Although the background and strategy are not applicable, the logic of bond price changes can still be seen in it. Is it suitable to buy bond funds in the near future?
Most bonds with leverage strategy will not work, and the leverage ratio cannot be used for income. Finally, some bonds will be sold, and dominoes may occur. Fast-moving assets are assets with good liquidity, such as public offering funds and bank financing.
3. How is it transmitted to financial management and how does it happen?
Because the bond market fell, the debt base and bank wealth management fell too suddenly, which triggered a large-scale redemption. At first glance, investors in Public Offering of Fund and bank financing were dumbfounded. Bonds can fall so much that the logic of bond market ups and downs is not clear. Redeem if the net value falls, and the more you fall, the more you redeem.
In fact, this wave of redemption is basically retail investors. Isn't the fixed income fixed? Why did it fall so much? You're kidding.
The data shows that the average scale of wealth management products has dropped by about 20%, and a large number of sales are redeemed in this way. Because of a large number of open financial management, retail redemption institutions must redeem it for him, and retail redemption will cause wealth management and debt-based assets to be sold.
At the same time, there are a large number of bank financial outsourcing nesting. If the financial investment management ability is not good, entrust the asset management institution to manage it. At the same time, a large number of nested products have also invested in a large number of bonds and funds. When the bank redeems its wealth management, it will redeem the funds invested in wealth management, and at the same time, a large number of outsourced products of the bank wealth management package will also redeem its Public Offering of Fund.
Public Offering of Fund was redeemed not only by retail investors, but also by institutional investors, because other institutional investors were trapped by retail investors.
At the same time, there are also deviations in cash management and financial management in monetary funds and bank financing.
When the absolute value of the positive deviation between the net asset value of cash management products determined by shadow pricing and the net asset value calculated by amortized cost method reaches 0.5%, the manager shall suspend the subscription and adjust the absolute value of the positive deviation to below 0.5% within 5 trading days. When the absolute value of negative deviation reaches 0.25%, the manager shall adjust the absolute value of negative deviation to within 0.25% within 5 trading days.
If you can't adjust it,
When the absolute value of negative deviation exceeds 0.5% for two consecutive trading days, the manager should adopt the fair value valuation method to adjust the book value of the portfolio (don't use the amortized cost method in the future, which will definitely be a disaster for the investment manager of this kind of products), or take measures such as suspending all redemption applications and terminating product contracts for property liquidation (Barbie Q).
Therefore, investment managers need to buy risky assets, iron out deviations and iron out large bases, but it is not easy to get them in the case of general market decline.
Finally, due to the fragility of the market itself, especially the huge redemption in the short term, the redemption is overwhelming, and the following situation has appeared. A series of negative feedback formed the stampede of the market.