(A) lithium battery market forecast
This time, several companies mainly forecast the market demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIB) for electric vehicles. Of course, SNE also predicted the market demand of core lithium-ion materials (anode and cathode, electrolyte and separator). In terms of total volume, the compound annual growth rate of the global electric vehicle market is expected to achieve a growth rate of 265,438+0%. SNE predicts that by 2030, xEV will increase to 40 million vehicles.
Globally, affected by the epidemic, the BEV electric vehicle market began to slow down in the first and second quarters of this year, but it has fully recovered in the third quarter. Compared with Q3 of 20 19, the global growth rate is 68%. In 2020, the whole can be summarized as "the electric vehicle and battery industry will continue to grow". In 2020, BEV will account for 37% of the xEV automobile market, HEV will account for 45%, and PHEV will account for 65,438+08%. BEV is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 30%, and will grow to 34 million vehicles by 2030, accounting for 84% of the total market share of EV.
Figure 1? SNE Interpretation of Regional Changes of Electric Vehicles in 2020
Figure 2? Demand decomposition of SNE vehicles
CEO of SNE? Kim. Gwangju predicts that the demand for power batteries for electric vehicles will increase at an average annual rate of 33%, and it is expected to reach 2956GWh by 2030. The market scale will increase from 65,438+05 trillion won in 2065,438+08 to 65,438+000 trillion won in 2025 and 200 trillion won in 2030. The key problems of power battery enterprises in the future can be summarized as increasing battery capacity, prolonging life cycle and reducing charging time. In 2025, the battery price will be reduced from $0/00 per kWh/KLOC to $75. With the expansion of the electric vehicle market, the backlog of orders will increase profitability. It is estimated that the operating profit margin of battery enterprises will reach 7-9% by 2025.
Figure 3? SNE interpretation of lithium battery demand and key materials
Joint ventures (JV) between battery companies and automobile OEMs will also increase substantially. LG this year? Chem, Samsung SDI and SK? The market share of the three innovative Korean battery companies increased rapidly from 16% last year to 35% this year.
In the first quarter of this year, the global battery installation decreased by-13%, decreased by -26% in the second quarter, but increased by 45% in the third quarter.
Figure 4? SNE shows the power battery market in 20 17-2020.
Several other guests also talked about the overall EV demand, which is very radical (optimistic), as shown below:
LG？ Chemistry? Lee? Yeon-hee spoke as the second speaker? "This year, the European electric vehicle market has made progress in environmental regulations and other policies. In the future, it will be customer-oriented and will grow to 24.5 million by 2030. LG Chem is expanding its production capacity in Poland, China and the United States. "
Figure 5? Requirements and expectations of several other guests at the seminar
Li, executive director of Samsung SDI, was the third speaker of the seminar. He mainly divided the electric vehicle market into three markets: entry, mass and luxury. It is estimated that it will grow to 7.056 million vehicles in 2025, of which entry-level vehicles account for 12%, Volkswagen accounts for 52% and luxury cars account for 35%. In the past, it was developed around the evolution of battery energy density. With the accumulation of energy, the cost of batteries is decreasing. It is predicted that European automaker Volkswagen will become the world's largest electric vehicle sales company from 2022. Up to now, Volkswagen has sold 370,000 electric vehicles in 2020, which is lower than the number one Tesla (440,000). However, by 2022, Volkswagen's electric vehicle sales are expected to reach 65,438+0,654,38+0.2 million, surpassing Tesla (estimated at 820,000). By 2030, the sales volume of Volkswagen electric vehicles is expected to reach 6.27 million, and the gap with Tesla will be expanded to 34 1 10,000.
Figure 6? Market demand of electric vehicles
(2) Minutes of Nomura Securities Meeting
1) There is a strong demand for electric vehicle batteries.
SNE predicts that the demand for batteries in electric vehicles will be strong. In 2025, the shipment of xEV battery vehicles will be 654.38+0.4 million (Nomura estimated it to be 654.38+0.65, 4.38+0.6 million). Before 2030, the demand for batteries will increase at an annual rate of 33%, reaching 2956 GWh(20 18:65438).
SNE estimates that the cumulative orders of LG Chem are $654.38+03.3 billion, Ningde is $765.438+00 billion, Samsung SDI is $66 billion and Panasonic is $62 billion. According to the data of June 5438+10-September in 2020, LGC is in a leading position in market share, accounting for 24.9%; Followed by other companies (LG Chemical, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., Panasonic, Samsung SD and BYD).
In 2025, solid-state batteries may be commercialized. It is expected that Toyota will launch commercial solid-state batteries in 2023, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in 2024, LG Chem in 2025 and SDI in 2027. Sulfide solid-state batteries are probably the easiest to commercialize. SNER estimates that by 2030, the market share of solid-state batteries will reach 4% of the global electric vehicle batteries. Reducing cost is one of the key factors affecting the development of solid-state batteries.
2) The importance of cylindrical battery is improved.
SDI is aware of the potential market expansion of cylindrical batteries, especially Tesla plans to expand the battery size (from 2 170 to 4680). In 2020, cylindrical batteries will account for 265,438+0% of the global battery market for electric vehicles, behind square batteries (52%) and soft-pack batteries (27%).
SDI has been trying to mix lithium ferrous phosphate (LFP) and lithium manganate (LMO) with existing NCMNCA to reduce the cost and provide lower-cost batteries. All companies think that LFP is more cost-competitive than NCM. The price of LFP is about USD 57/kg, while the price of NCM8 1 1 is USD 22.5/kg. In terms of batteries? SNE estimates that the cost of LFP is 87 USD kWh, and the corresponding ternary NMC battery is11USD/kWh. At present, LFP accounts for 65,438+04% of the global battery market share (2009: 2065,438+09%), and LFP may have the opportunity to gain more market share in the future.
Summary: I didn't say much about the real technology. Anyway, Korean companies have made a summary of the optimistic development of electric vehicles in the future for your reference.
Figure | Network and related screenshots
Author's brief introduction: Zhu Yulong, senior engineer of three electric systems and automotive electronics for electric vehicles, is the author of Hardware Design of Automotive Electronics.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.