In your memory, most housing enterprises with good product reputation have experienced the crisis of short-term pressure on the capital chain. For example, 20 12 Greentown, this year's Taihe Group (SZ:000732).
In the first half of this year, Taihe, whose product reputation was not lost to Greentown, defaulted on its debt. The reason is that sales and delivery are affected by the epidemic, which leads to a sharp drop in short-term capital withdrawal, which in turn brings pressure on the capital chain.
With the end of the epidemic, the pressure on Taihe will be relieved to some extent.
On the one hand, with the recovery of terminal demand, the sales of Taihe will continue to pick up, and the withdrawal of funds will further alleviate the debt pressure. The data shows that the sales of TOP 100 increased by 17.7%, 14.6% and 26.7% respectively in May, June and July.
On the other hand, Taihe continues to "slim down". Judging from the financial report data in the past two years, Taihe's net debt ratio has continued to decline. In the first half of 2020, the net debt ratio of Taihe increased slightly compared with 20 19 due to the epidemic, but the interest-bearing liabilities still declined.
Considering Taihe's product reputation accumulated in the past and a large number of high-quality land hoarded in first-and second-tier cities, it is a high probability that Taihe will survive the current crisis.
From this perspective, the most difficult period of Taihe has passed.
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Taihe "slimming"
The epidemic in early 2020 was a disastrous blow to the real estate industry and even the whole economy.
Housing enterprises were affected by the epidemic isolation, and sales plummeted. In February, the worst epidemic, the sales of the entire TOP 100 housing enterprises fell by 44.8%, which was close to the waist.
In addition, in the past few years, Taihe has increased its leverage to take and hoard land. By the end of 20 17, Taihe's net debt ratio reached 473.4%. Compared with the prevailing net debt ratio of housing enterprises at that time 100%, Taihe's capital chain was obviously more tense. It is precisely because of this that Taihe, which has a tight capital chain, has a short-term debt default.
However, from the extended cycle, the impact of the debt problem will not have much impact on Taihe.
On the one hand, the company has been in a state of "slimming" in the past two years. From 20 17 to 20 19, the net debt ratio of Taihe was 473.4%, 384.9% and 279.2%, respectively, which kept declining.
The latest semi-annual report shows that although Taihe's short-term capital chain was under pressure in the first half of 2020, the company's interest-bearing liabilities further decreased from 96.7 billion yuan in 20 19 to 96 billion yuan in mid-2020. In absolute terms, it seems that the decline is not large, but considering the pressure on Taihe's sales in the first half of the year, this data is still very eye-catching.
To some extent, if it is not the epidemic, it is estimated that Taihe's debt in the first half of 2020 has returned to a stable level. In addition to its own "slimming" effect, the recovery of the industry has further reduced the pressure on Taihe.
With the rapid control of the domestic epidemic and the gradual recovery of the demand of end consumers, the sales of the whole real estate industry finally resumed growth.
After the continuous decline in real estate sales from 10 to April, the sales of TOP 100 in May, June and July increased by 17.7%, 14.6% and 26.7% respectively. The rapid recovery of industry sales will further promote Taihe to withdraw funds, thus reducing its debt pressure.
Generally speaking, on the one hand, Taihe controls the debt scale by reducing expenditure, on the other hand, the industry sales pick up, which drives the company's cash flow to increase. It is undoubtedly a high probability event that Taihe's debt ratio continues to decline through one increase and one decrease.
While debt is reduced and sales are picking up, the good reputation accumulated by products in the past will further accelerate the recovery of Taihe.
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"artisan spirit",
Help Taihe recover in the post-epidemic era.
To some extent, Taihe's current crisis is not lost in products, but in management.
When it comes to products, Taihe is undoubtedly the first in the real estate industry. The "original products haven't changed, very few" widely circulated in the real estate circle is the owner of Taihe, Huang Qisen. This also shows from the side that Taihe's pursuit of products is meticulous.
Specifically, in product design, Taihe hired Zhang Yonghe, an internationally renowned architect, to participate in the design.
Taihe China Courtyard is the first hardcover courtyard villa. The layout not only meets the needs of improved families for space, but also keeps the living space connected rather than separated.
In addition, Taihe's "China Courtyard" not only integrates the essence of China Courtyard, but also innovates according to local culture. For example, in Shanghai yard, you can see more elements of Shanghai culture, while in Hangzhou yard, you can see some elements of Jiangnan landscape.
Obviously, from product design to the pursuit of details, it is not difficult to understand why Taihe's brand can be recognized by everyone. In a sense, the brand is the result of the continuous accumulation of the company's product reputation.
Looking at the extended cycle, the brand is of great significance to housing enterprises.
First of all, brands can directly promote sales efficiency. Strong brand awareness, to some extent, comes from construction technology, product quality, structural design and service after delivery. It proves that the products of this real estate enterprise have the competitive advantage of leading industries.
For consumers, it is impossible to know too much about the house in the early stage, and the brand has become the most important reference index for them to choose products.
Secondly, brands can also help housing enterprises reduce the cost of land acquisition. With the increasing shortage of land resources in China, land acquired through bidding, auction and urban renewal projects is concentrated in housing enterprises with high brand awareness. Because for the government, brand developers represent standardized project operation, more mature development and operation and more reliable product quality.
Third, housing enterprises with better brands can often get lower financing costs. Real estate development has its own leverage, and the source of funds and cost are an important part of housing enterprises. Housing enterprises with brand advantages have proved to some extent that their comprehensive advantages are relatively strong, and they will also have advantages over their peers in corporate financing.
Generally speaking, the brand value of Taihe will also help Taihe to speed up the sales payment in the post-epidemic era and make the company's operation regular as soon as possible.
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Taihe's "self-confidence"
In addition to products, Taihe has accumulated a lot of high-quality land, which is also the basis for it to survive the crisis.
Friends who are familiar with the real estate industry know that land, as the "lifeblood" of real estate enterprises, is not only used as raw materials. When the enterprise's capital chain is tight, this asset can not only be directly sold and realized, but also attract new investors.
This is also why those housing enterprises with a lot of high-quality land are easy to get out of trouble when the capital chain is tight. Taihe is a real estate enterprise with a large number of high-quality land in first-and second-tier cities.
Taihe's semi-annual report in 2020 shows that the company's land reserves are concentrated in the most developed places in China, such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Greater Bay Area and Yangtze River Delta, and the land reserves are of high quality.
Judging from the total land reserve area disclosed by Taihe in the first half of the year, it has reached 32,706,438+0.4 million square meters, corresponding to a total saleable value of about 600 billion yuan. According to the sales volume of Taihe in 20 19 years, this soil reserve is enough for the company to sell for several years.
In addition, large-scale high-quality land can not only ensure that the company will not spend money to get land and have goods to sell in the future, but also attract external investors to buy shares in Taihe, help it solve the short-term debt problem and return its operations to normal.
Therefore, even if the recovery of sales can't bring ideal cash back to Taihe, and the pressure caused by the tight capital chain can't be completely solved in the short term, large-scale high-quality land will attract external investors and help Taihe solve the short-term debt problem.
As far as we can see, the impact of the epidemic on Taihe is objective, but it is only short-term. In the long run, as the epidemic subsides and sales in the real estate industry resume growth, Taihe can naturally solve the debt problem by reducing land acquisition and increasing sales.
Pessimistically speaking, if controlling expenditure and increasing sales can't completely help Taihe out of the debt quagmire in a short time, then a large number of high-quality land reserves are also the basis for Taihe to confidently get out of the quagmire.
Therefore, investors should not be overly pessimistic about the current Taihe, because the most difficult stage has passed.