If there is no accident, the core driving force for the future automobile industry to complete this transformation will be the "services and functions" driven by software and data that appear on traditional vehicles.
There are several reasons why cars should shift from "durable consumer goods" to "fast-moving consumer goods":
1, gradual separation of automobile and travel demand in first-tier and super-first-tier cities
In some first-tier and super-first-tier cities, more and more convenient public transportation and * * * modes of travel (including special cars and hitchhiking) enable many young consumers to meet most of their travel needs without owning cars.
For example, the convenient one-stop ground bus network, fast and punctual subway+* * * bicycle mode, and even special cars and taxis provide consumers with rich choices for point-to-point travel needs.
In addition, social and navigation software support each other; As well as the support of bus navigation software, the whole travel market becomes "information transparent" for smartphone users, which improves consumers' travel efficiency and reduces costs.
At the same time, in the economically developed areas such as Beishangguang, the restriction of motor vehicles, the shortage of parking spaces, the increase of parking fees and the deterioration of the private car environment caused by traffic congestion "force" consumers to choose public transportation with higher efficiency and lower cost but poor comfort.
2. The price threshold of traditional cars is getting lower and lower.
Since the author came into contact with the automobile industry in 2002, the price of automobiles in the market has not dropped a lot. However, in the past decade, the economic income of consumers is getting higher and higher (due to inflation), which leads to the increasing purchasing power of consumers and the lower price threshold of automobiles.
Especially in recent years, traditional fuel vehicles have touched the ceiling in the core technical fields such as body materials, engines, gearboxes, etc. More and more stringent emission standards have forced traditional fuel vehicles to lose weight. These two factors have also accelerated the decline of automobile price threshold.
For example, the former star V8 engine was slimmed down into an ordinary V6 engine, and later the V6 engine was slimmed down into a 4-cylinder supercharged engine to save fuel. Even if BMW adopts a three-cylinder engine, it directly leads to the following four chain reactions:
First, the traditional automobile industry is blocked by the channel of value-added through "technical complexity"; B, the technology between different automobile brands is becoming more and more simple, refined and homogeneous;
C, forcing the automobile to develop into shape subdivision, modeling functionalization and human-computer interaction;
D, forcing automobile brands to pay more and more attention to the cultural influence and marketing strategy behind the brand;
These factors make it more and more difficult for consumers to make purchase decisions when facing the current cars (because of the high degree of product homogeneity), pay more attention to their own preferences and demands, and pay more attention to brand appeal and the fit between products and personal social status and role.
In short, today's consumers do not need professional decision-making and repeated consideration, and sometimes even a flash of an idea can drive consumers to make a purchase decision.
3. The huge imagination space brought by electric vehicles to the future travel industry.
At present, electric vehicles have become an unavoidable hurdle for every automobile manufacturer. Although the electric vehicle is not satisfactory at present, considering the combination of the inherent advantages of electric technology and the changes of consumers' consumption habits, it still creates a lot of imagination for the future travel market.
First of all, for consumers, electric vehicles will maintain a lower cost of use than fuel vehicles for a long time.
Take the simplest electricity bill as an example. When the air conditioner is turned on in the city in summer, the average power consumption of a Weilai ES6 is almost 100 kilometers and 20 degrees. Commercial electricity charges 24 yuan/100 kilometers, and then consumes 4L/ 100 kilometers. It can be said that the cost of car use is quite low.
For a traditional fuel vehicle with the same specifications as ES6, the fuel consumption level of 4L/ 100 km is impossible under the same working conditions.
Secondly, compared with the requirements of 5,000 km small maintenance and 0/0,000 km large maintenance of fuel vehicles, there is almost no maintenance problem of electric vehicles within three years after purchase, so electric vehicles can be regarded as one-time investment, and the maintenance cost is extremely low.
Therefore, considering the "steep drop" in the use cost of electric vehicles, and the attribute change from "continuous investment product" to "one-time investment product" compared with fuel vehicles, electric vehicles have lowered the purchase threshold and use threshold set by traditional fuel vehicles again, which may bring about a complete change in consumers' consumption concept:
For example, in the future travel market, cars are no longer regarded as traditional "big goods", but owning an electric family car will not bring much psychological satisfaction (face) to consumers, or increase the family's considerable economic burden. These factors strengthen the "consumption degradation" of automobiles from the perspective of the consumer market, and promote the substantial transformation of automobiles from "durable consumer goods" to "fast-moving consumer goods".
To sum up, whether from the "decline" of the traditional fuel automobile industry or the upgrading iteration of the consumer market, the shaping of consumers' habits by digital and information technology, or even the "subversion" of the traditional automobile industry by electric vehicle technology, the whole automobile industry is facing severe challenges of intelligent travel.
In this context, the relationship between traffic and travel demand is gradually stripped, and consumers' consumption concept of automobile products is more "calm" and "casual", so that one day in the future, the automobile industry structure may gradually show hourglass polarization:
One pole is a luxury car based on high-end customized products; The other pole is the fast-moving car service which mainly meets the travel needs of the public, and there are a few transitional products in the middle.
Tips: The so-called fast-moving consumer goods refer to consumer goods with short service life and fast consumption speed. This kind of products, packaged into independent small units for sale, are more popular in the market, and consumers pay more attention to packaging, brand and marketing strategy; Accordingly, "durable consumer goods" usually have a long service life and a large one-time investment, including but not limited to automobiles, household appliances and large furniture.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.