Judging from the global stock market situation, the safety margin of the American stock market and German stock market, which have been in the leading position, has decreased rapidly, which has led to the strategic adjustment of global investors, from "seeking high-yield assets" to "seeking assets unrelated to US stocks". China stock market quite meets this condition.
In fact, this round of China A-share rise is synchronized with the decline of the US stock market. Compared with US stocks, China stock market, Japanese stock market and Korean stock market rose against the trend. While the rest of the world's stock markets were flat. There is a causal link between the decline of American stock market and the rise of China stock market.
The American stock market now faces three major challenges, which leads to the reduction of its safety margin. The first is the challenge brought by the slimming of the Federal Reserve. After QE, the size of the Fed's $4.36 trillion balance sheet will enter a slimming stage, which is likely to have a dramatic impact on the liquidity of financial markets. The second is the challenge of the disappearance of the low interest rate environment. If the Fed starts to raise interest rates next year, the yield of government bonds is likely to react in advance and start to rise, which is also bad for risky assets. The third is the hidden risk of ultra-low volatility. At present, the volatility of major global financial markets such as US stocks, German stocks, exchange rates and commodities is at a very low level, which is quite similar to the "calm" before the 2008 financial crisis. Once the volatility rises, it will correspond to the fluctuation of financial market prices.
Therefore, global investors began to adjust their investment strategies, from "preferring high-yield assets such as US stocks and German stocks" to "seeking assets unrelated to US stocks". If the correlation between global stock market and American stock market is sorted, China A-share market, Korean stock market and Japanese stock market are among the "least relevant". It can be expected that if there is a long-term and substantial adjustment in the US stock market and the stock markets in developed countries that are highly related to it, the stock markets of China, Japan and South Korea will be favored by investors and become the chasing targets of asset reallocation, which is also a potential driving factor for China A-shares to get out of the downturn in the future.