I. Classification of warrants:
1. It is divided into call warrants and put warrants according to the buying and selling direction.
Warrant means that the holder has the right to buy the issuer's underlying securities at the agreed price within a specific period or maturity date;
Put warrants are securities sold by the holder at the agreed price, and warrants can also collect the settlement price difference by cash settlement.
2. According to the exercise period of rights, it is divided into European warrants, American warrants and Bermuda warrants.
European warrant holders can only exercise their warrants on the expiration date.
The holder of American warrants can exercise their rights at any trading time before the expiration date of warrants; Generally, the transaction is terminated 5 trading days before the expiration of the warrant, but the exercise is allowed.
Bermuda warrants are warrants whose exercise mode is between European warrants and American warrants. The standard Bermuda warrants usually add an exercise date between the listing date and its date, while the extended Bermuda warrants allow the exercise date to be several trading days within a predetermined period. The price of Bermuda system is higher than that of European warrants with the same conditions, but lower than that of American warrants with the same conditions.
2. Companies that have confirmed that they have completed the share-trading reform and issued warrants.
1. Baosteel warrants (580000) belong to European call warrants, with the exercise date of August 30, 2006 and the exercise price of 4.5 yuan. On August 30th, 2006, the shareholders holding Baosteel warrants can buy baoshan iron & steel at the price of 4.5/ share.
2. Xingang Vanadium Warrant (03800 1) is a European put warrant with a duration of 18 months and an exercise price of 4.85 yuan. Users with expired warrants can sell shares of Xingang Vanadium to listed companies at the price of 4.85/ share on the exercise date. (4 shares per 10)
3.WISCO is a European put warrant and a European put warrant, the put warrant price is 3. 13 yuan, the exercise price of the warrant is 2.9 yuan, and the duration is 6 months. Put warrants and WISCO warrants are listed on the same day and exercised at the same time, which is the first dish warrant in China since the share-trading reform.
4. Vanke is a Bermuda put warrant, the exercise price is set at 3.73 yuan, and the duration is 9 months after listing. The holder of the franchise certificate has been in Vanke Bermuda for the last five trading days.
5. Long-distance power warrants are European warrants.
6. The newly-launched rolling warrants of Angang are European call warrants with the exercise price of 4 yuan and the duration of 366 days.
7. Baiyun Airport 600004 is a put warrant with an exercise price of 7 yuan.
3. Relevant knowledge of warrant trading
1. The warrants are subject to T+0 trading. Buy on the same day, sell on the same day, and you can trade many times. The subscription quantity is 100 shares or an integer multiple thereof, which can be sold by zero shares; Buy up to 6,543,800 copies per entrustment; The smallest change in the transaction price of warrants is 0.00 1 yuan. Warrant handling fee 1.5‰, and the minimum handling fee is 5 yuan.
2. The range of the price limit of warrants is also related to the price of the underlying securities, which is 1.25 times.
If the closing price of baoshan iron & steel165438+1October 8th is 3.9 1 yuan, the daily limit of baoshan iron & steel No.9 is 3.9 1x 10%=0.39 yuan, and the daily limit of Baosteel Warrant No.9 is 0.39 x/kloc-0. Baosteel warrant no.8.
3. Warrant investment skills-chasing up and killing down
The speculation of warrants is more prominent, and warrants should be different from stocks. Because it is a T+0 operation, the warrants will follow up resolutely when they rise, and decisively sell take profit or stop loss when they fall.
Because the warrant is a T+0 transaction, the arbitrage opportunity will increase when the fluctuation is large; In addition, the price may change quickly, so it is best to hang up the purchase order and sales order in advance to keep an eye on the market.
The market price of warrants is completely determined by funds, and whoever has large funds will have the right to speak.
4. Purchase and exercise of warrants: both call warrants and put warrants can be bought and sold like stocks, but they cannot be sold short. In addition, on the exercise day, they can exercise at 1: 1.
5. At present, the warrants are distributed to shareholders free of charge by listed companies with share reform. Warrants with compensation may be issued in the future. For example, covered warrants may be issued by a third party and will have an issue price.
4. Calculation of exercise value of warrants:
1. The market price of Baosteel warrants on the expiration date = the market price of baoshan iron & steel -4.50 yuan.
If > 0, you can exercise, otherwise the warrant is worthless.
2. The market price on the expiration date of the new steel vanadium warrant =4.85- the market price of the new steel vanadium stock.
If > 0, you can exercise, otherwise the warrant is worthless.
Correctly understand the last trading day and expiration date of warrants
According to Article 14 of the Interim Measures for the Administration of Warrants promulgated by the Exchange, five trading days before the expiration of warrants, warrants can be terminated, but they can be exercised. Therefore, the last trading day of the warrant and the expiration date of the warrant are not the same day. After the last trading day of the warrants, the warrants are terminated and investors can exercise their rights on the exercise day.
Warrants automatically expire after expiration, and they can neither be traded nor exercised, so they no longer have any value.
We believe that to correctly understand the last trading day and expiration date of warrants, we need to pay attention to the following three points:
1, the warrant price may fluctuate greatly on the last trading day.
At present, there is still a certain degree of speculation in China's warrant market. For example, put warrants in deep out-of-price state have no exercise value, but their average premium rate is still higher than 50%. As an investment product with a duration, the market price of warrants will return to its intrinsic value when it expires, which makes warrants with no exercise value and high premium rate fall sharply in the last few trading days, especially in the last trading day of warrants. Intraday fluctuations are usually as high as 90% or more, that is, investors who enter the market on the last trading day may lose all their money in one day. Therefore, investors should pay special attention to the risk of large fluctuations in warrant prices on the last trading day.
2. For warrants that may have exercise value, it is still necessary to pay attention to the trend of stocks after suspension.
After the warrants stop trading, the shares can still be traded, so the intrinsic value of warrants will still change. In particular, whether the warrants near the price level after suspension have exercise value depends entirely on how the underlying stocks fluctuate during the exercise period. Therefore, the warrant holder should pay close attention to the trend of the underlying stock during the exercise period and choose the appropriate exercise date.
3. The five trading days after the termination of the warrants are not all exercise days.
Warrant holders should pay close attention to the issuer's suggestive announcement and know the last trading day and exercise date of the warrant. For example, the last trading day of the expired Angang warrants is 165438+20061October 28th, and the expiration date is 65438+February 5th, while the exercise dates are only 65438+February 6th and 65438+February 4th.
The last trading day of Baotou Steel's call warrant (code 580002, referred to as Baotou Steel JTB 1) and put warrant (code 580995, referred to as Baotou Steel JTP 1) is March 23rd, 2007, and the exercise date is five trading days from March 26th to 30th. When the warrant expires on March 30th, it will automatically become invalid and have no value. (CITIC Securities
Correctly understand the rights of warrant investors
Warrant is the most basic financial derivative product, which is issued by the issuer of index securities or a third party other than it. The agreed holder has the right to buy or sell the underlying securities from the issuer at the agreed price within a specific period or a specific maturity date, or to collect the securities with the settlement price difference in cash.
For the current share reform warrants, we take Baotou Steel warrants as an example to help warrant investors understand the concept of "right" in warrants from three aspects:
First of all, the "right" of the warrant means that the holder has the right to exercise, not the obligation to exercise. According to the closing data of March 15, the closing price of Baotou Steel is 5.47 yuan, the exercise price of the call warrant of Baotou Steel is 1.94 yuan, and the exercise price of the put warrant of Baotou Steel is 2.37 yuan. Then, assume that the share price of Baotou Steel is still 5.47 yuan during the exercise period, regardless of transaction costs. Then the holder of the call warrant gets the exercise income of 3.53 yuan (5.47- 1.94=3.53) per warrant, and the holder of the put warrant of Baotou Steel produces the exercise loss of 3. 1 yuan (2.37-5.47=-3. 1) per warrant. It is precisely because the warrant gives the holder the right to exercise.
Secondly, the "right" of the warrant holder has a time limit, and it will expire when it expires. The last trading day of the "Baotou Steel JTB 1" call warrant and the "Baotou Steel JTP 1" put warrant is March 23rd, 2007, after which trading is stopped, and the exercise period is five days (March 26th, 2007-March 30th, 2007). The "Baotou Steel JTB 1" call warrant and "Baotou Steel JTP 1" put warrant that have not been exercised on the exercise termination date will be cancelled. Warrant holders can choose to sell warrants before entering the exercise period. For investors who still hold the warrants of Baotou Steel during the exercise period, don't forget to exercise, otherwise the warrants will become a piece of waste paper.
Finally, the "right" of the warrant holder is embodied through physical delivery, rather than directly obtaining the price difference. If investors exercise 65,438+0,000 Baotou Steel warrants, they must ensure that there are 65,438+0 and 940 yuan (exercise price of 65,438+0.94 yuan × 65,438+0,000 shares) available funds in the capital account, which is enough to pay for transfer fees and other related procedures. If the investor exercises 65,438+0,000 put warrants of Baotou Steel, he must ensure that there are 65,438+0,000 shares of Baotou Steel in the capital account. After the exercise, the investor is equivalent to selling 1 share of Baotou Steel to Baotou Steel Group at a price of 2.37 yuan.
Investors should correctly understand the "right" in warrants, and avoid the mistake of forgetting to exercise the right when exercising, or wrongly exercising when not exercising. (CITIC Securities)
How should investors choose warrants?
Warrant is an investment tool, and investors mainly hope to improve their investment income through the leverage effect of warrant.
Investment warrants must first look at the changes in stocks. If investors are optimistic about the future trend of a stock, they can invest in its warrants.
If you short a stock, you can invest in its put warrants. It is very important to judge the familiarity and trend of stocks.
After choosing the warrant group, investors need to choose the warrant that suits them within the group. The technical indicators and terms of warrants change with the renewal period and exercise price. If the index is used to select warrants, investors should analyze them from two aspects: premium rate and effective leverage. The premium rate is a main index to measure the risk of warrants, which indicates the degree to which the stock needs to rise (subscribe) or fall (sell) relative to the current price if warrants are held and invested.
If analyzed from the perspective of potential benefits, it can be reflected from the effective leverage of warrants. The effective leverage ratio measures the explosive power of warrants, that is, the percentage change of warrants every 65,438+0% increase or decrease. For example, the effective leverage of a warrant is 5 times, which means that every time the stock rises 1%, the warrant will rise by about 5%. There is no optimal effective leverage in investment decision-making, which is only for different premiums (risks).
After comparing premium and effective leverage, we should choose an appropriate premium level on similar maturity dates, and then choose warrants with higher effective leverage from similar premiums. In addition, when we choose warrants, we should also consider the extended volatility. Extended volatility is one of the factors to measure the warrant price, which represents investors' expectation of the future volatility of the stock. Theoretically, generally speaking, the premium rate of warrants with long duration is higher. The premium rate of warrants with short duration is lower. In a similar risk/return ratio, warrants with low extension volatility have more defensive and investment value, and warrant prices and premium rates are lower. On the other hand, the higher the extension volatility of warrants, the higher the warrant price, because in the same stock, warrants with relatively high extension volatility mean that the price calculated purely by derivative technical conditions is relatively high. When the warrant is lowered from high extended volatility to low extended volatility, its market performance will be worse than other similar warrants. The above is purely theoretical. After the covered warrant comes out, it also involves the selection and comparison of issuers, including their market reputation, product design and ability to provide liquidity.
What is the leverage of warrants?
The leverage of warrants is the attraction of warrants, that is, warrants can amplify the price changes of stocks. With little capital, the return on investment can approach or even exceed that of stocks. The higher the leverage ratio, the higher the return rate of investment warrants. However, we need to understand that the leverage of warrants is a "double-edged sword".
If investors make mistakes, the loss of warrants will be amplified by leverage. Generally speaking, the investment involved in warrants is relatively small, but the price fluctuation will be higher than that of stocks, and the potential yield and loss rate will be higher than that of stocks. The best indicators to describe the leverage of warrants are the leverage ratio of warrants and the actual leverage ratio.
The leverage ratio refers to the ratio of the index securities price to the warrant price (converted according to the exercise ratio), and its calculation formula is:
Leverage ratio = underlying securities price ÷ (warrant price × exercise ratio)
The leverage ratio reflects the cost ratio of investment stocks to investment warrants. Assuming that the leverage ratio of a warrant is 8, it means that the cost of investing in warrants is one-eighth of that of investing in stocks.
When we want to predict the potential increase of warrants, we should not look at the leverage ratio of warrants, but at the actual leverage.
What is the break-even point of warrants?
Q: What is the break-even point of the warrants? Can you find a specific warrant to demonstrate how to calculate it?
Answer: The breakeven point of warrants refers to how much the share price needs to reach when exercising according to the current price of warrants, the current price of stocks and the exercise price of warrants, so that the warrant holder can achieve breakeven (regardless of exercise fees).
Call warrant breakeven point = exercise price+warrant price × exercise ratio
Break-even point of put warrants = exercise price-warrant price × exercise ratio
For example, the current price of a warrant is 0.9 yuan, the current price of the underlying securities is 3.6 yuan, the exercise price is 3.5 yuan, and the exercise ratio is 1: 1, then its breakeven point is 3.5+0.9× 1=4.4 yuan. In other words, when the stock price rises above 4.4 yuan, investors can exercise their rights to make profits during the exercise period.
Matters needing attention in warrant trading
Unlike stocks, warrants are T+0 transactions, that is, warrants bought on the same day can be sold on the same day. Moreover, the rise and fall of warrants is not 10%, but there is a specific calculation formula. Price of warrants = closing price of warrants on the previous day+(price of underlying securities on the previous day-closing price of underlying securities) × 65,438+025 %× exercise ratio; The falling price of warrants = the closing price of warrants on the previous day-(the closing price of the underlying securities on the previous day-the falling price of the underlying securities on the same day) × 125%× exercise ratio.
The minimum change unit of the declared price of warrants is 0.00 1 RMB. The number of buy warrants must be an integer multiple of 100, and the number of sell warrants is unlimited.
Investors should also note that warrants have a certain period of time, and the transaction will be terminated upon expiration. Warrant holders should pay close attention to and understand the duration of warrants in a timely manner through various channels such as warrant issuance instructions, listing announcements and suggestive announcements issued by warrant issuers, so as to avoid losses due to failure to sell warrants or exercise rights.
Five risks that investors should guard against when speculating warrants.
First of all, we must guard against out-of-price risks. Experts said that warrants are divided into inside warrants and outside warrants by value, and those with intrinsic value greater than zero are outside warrants. For example, the potash Put Warrant listed on Shenzhen Stock Exchange will enter the exercise period on June 25th this year, with the exercise price of 15. 1 yuan, and the warrant price will close at 3. 15 on the 6th. However, the positive share price of Salt Lake Potash is 39.2 yuan, so it is unlikely to exercise before Salt Lake Potash falls below 1 1.95 yuan.
When the intrinsic value of warrants is zero, the closer the exercise period is, the greater the risk of investing in out-of-price warrants. For example, on the last trading day at the end of August last year, Vanke put warrants unilaterally fell by 95%, and some investors lost more than 6,543,800 yuan.
Second, there is a risk of large price fluctuations. As the warrant is a securities product with leverage effect, generally speaking, the exercise ratio is 1, and the price of the underlying securities is much higher than the warrant, so the decline of the warrant is generally greater than 10%.
The third is T+0 risk. Warrants can be traded back and forth many times in a single trading day, which contains a stronger speculative atmosphere, making it more difficult for investors to judge the trend of funds and the actual situation of the trading market, thus further increasing the market risk. Some speculative warrants have large short-term capital transactions and frequent turnover, which leads to blind follow-up by retail investors and even losses.
The fourth is sports risk. Some investors are not familiar with the exercise principle of warrants, and some investors exercise their rights wrongly, resulting in huge losses. For example, from February to March this year, 30 retail investors exercised more than 38,000 put warrants for Daye Special Steel outside the price limit, resulting in a loss of 206,300 yuan.
Fifth, the risk of market entrustment. Although the probability of this risk is very low, investors should also pay attention. For example, on February 28th this year, some investors entrusted to sell 820,000 Haier put warrants at the market price, and the closing price on that day was 0.699 yuan each. In fact, it was sold at 0.00 1 yuan, and 560,000 yuan became 820 yuan, with heavy losses. Therefore, investors should use the market entrustment method carefully when buying and selling warrants to avoid unnecessary losses.
Speculation method of warrant
The following is a netizen's idea, which is very enlightening. I'll send it to you.
In principle, the lower the warrant price, the greater the risk, the greater the opportunity and the greater the difficulty of operation; At present, 7 warrants are in a state of long-term linkage, and the prices are very high, so the corresponding operation is very easy!
Personally, I think the operation of warrants is mainly to overcome fear, and don't always think that warrants will dive; Second, we must overcome the psychology of extreme greed and take profits when the profit exceeds 5~ 10%. If we see the trend clearly, we can make the next move. T+0 anyway! When the fluctuation is small, the quantity decreases!
Here are some of my operational experiences to share with you:
For the warrants of the ascending channel, quantity is the soul and handicap is the signal! Don't always look at those K-charts for a few minutes, it doesn't make any sense at all, and the so-called tricks of stocks can't be applied to warrants! At present, the factors affecting the fluctuation of domestic warrants are very single, which mainly depend on funds and subsequent market conditions, and have nothing to do with stocks and time, exercise price and duration! So forget the value and don't look at the trend of the stock.
You can look at the trading seats announced by the exchange. Basically, in most cases, when the warrants rise, the number of the top five seats bought and sold on that day is basically equal! This shows that the main force generally adopts circular arbitrage, which is essentially different from stock trading.
The specific operation of the main force is to pull up and ship at the same time, use the funds in the follow-up market to quickly pull the price to a high level, then sort out the shipment sideways, and then pull up ... This circular operation is profitable, so the main force does not need too much capital investment, basically1~ 20 million funds, and can do hundreds of millions of transactions in one day.
In fact, most of the warrants are retail investors, and the main force generally only accounts for 20%~30%. Based on this, the following methods are suitable for the majority of retail investors:
1. Because warrants generally open higher in the rising channel, this is the same as the operation principle of stocks. A daily limit will open higher the next day, so as to maximize profits! After the warrant is opened higher, it will be quickly pulled up to attract followers and then shipped. After finishing it for a while, it was pulled up again! Let's take a closer look at the daily trend of the warrants of the rising channel. Is that basically it?
In this case, you can buy warrants at the last moment of closing (preferably at the last moment, because you are afraid of diving in the late session), and then open higher the next day and wait until the main force rises to a high point before shipping! Generally at least 2% profit, you can operate in Man Cang!
Judging the high point is exquisite, mainly depending on the angle of quantity and moving average. If the angle of the moving average exceeds 45 degrees, the pull-up time will be very short; Handicap can see the number of large orders sold, that is, the number and size of green disks (inner disks); You can see the trading volume per minute from the quantity and energy, and it is basically the peak when it is abnormally amplified! This method is at least 2%~5% every day and above 10% every week. Stop loss can be set to your cost. If something goes wrong, sell it immediately and only pay the handling fee!
2. Buy one minute before closing and sell at closing the next day; This method requires a certain ability and experience to look at the market. Generally, the daily opening price (the closing price of the previous day) of the warrants of the rising channel is basically the lowest point of the whole day, so the closing price of the previous day, regardless of the trend of the warrants in the market, your cost is definitely the lowest, and the probability of being quilted is very small, so there is generally at least 5% profit! How to grasp the best selling point? This should be divided into several situations: those with poor operational ability can be sold before the warrants are transferred back; Or ignore the intraday trend and sell directly half an hour before the close; This is basically a steady profit, but pay attention to setting the stop loss position, and take-1% as your stop loss, plus the cost, you are most grateful to 1.6%! Don't worry if you don't reach the stop loss! In case of diving, you can sell it directly at the stop loss! This generally makes a profit of 5% ~ 10%, and sometimes even 30%!
3. The operation of the master can refer to the following methods: First, if you have prepared the funds, you can buy the first two methods and buy them before the close! If it opens higher and rises to about 5% the next day, it is recommended to make a profit first; Then wait until the callback is between 0% and 2% of the opening price before entering the market, and the stop loss is set at around -2%; Then observe the angle, energy and handicap of pull-ups. Generally, if it is oscillating upward, it will always be held, because the price difference is very small and it is impossible to make a band! If you pull fast, you will make a profit first when you pull up and consolidate, and then you will shoot near the moving average! If you pull slowly, prove that the main force will be a masterpiece, and you will get it until you pull hard! There is usually a high point in the morning. It is recommended to sell at a profit first and buy half at a relatively low point after consolidation. If you continue to call back and make up half of the position, remember to break the moving average stop loss! Then pull it up and sell it! Finally, buy in the afternoon plunge, or buy at the last minute of closing! In this way, the chances of success are generally higher. Even if you make two mistakes and stop losses twice, you will have great benefits!
Several basic laws of warrant operation;
1. A sharp drop will definitely rebound; So, as long as it's not a big dive, don't sell it when it falls, and wait until it rebounds after the fall to avoid selling it on the floor!
2. If there is a sharp rise, there must be a sharp adjustment; Therefore, when selling, how to sell to the highest point or higher point mainly depends on the mentality, not too greedy. After seeing a sharp rise, the volume does not rise, sell it immediately! Still selling at 90 degrees!
3. The volume will rise and the shrinkage will fall; You can catch up with the increase. When chasing the increase, be careful not to chase the increase of more than 80 degrees. It is safest to buy it when it is pulled up, and the price is the lowest! Shrinkage for more than 30 minutes, immediately out!
4. buying and selling skills: I often hear people say that they didn't buy it, or they couldn't sell it! I suggest you know the principle of call auction first!
Business must be determined! If you buy when the price is rising, you must place an order at the price of 5~ 10, so that you will jump the queue, but look at the actual transaction price, it will definitely be less than the price you placed! At least look at the principle of call auction! It's easier to buy when it falls, just hang the price of 1~2!
To sell when it falls, you must also reduce the price by 5~ 10, especially when diving, and you can even reduce your position by 5%~ 10% before placing an order! Similarly, the actual transaction price is definitely equal to the real-time price of your order time, but it is not equal to your order price!
The warrant is to be quick, the opportunity is lost, and hesitation is the most terrible! Do the above, you can become a master of warrant trading! The above operation suggestions are only applicable to funds below 1 10,000, and those above 1 10,000 can be operated in 2~3 funds! -Taoism is natural.
Three golden rules of warrant operation
2006 is a year full of expectations for investors. With the emergence of many warrants in BLACKPINK, huge accumulated hot money and huge QFII overseas have joined the warrant battlefield one after another, and one classic warrant battle has been staged continuously. Although the risk is great, the super charm of warrants still attracts the top experts in the market to make moves frequently and arbitrage successfully. I wonder how many "successful people" have been created in just a few months. Of course, many investors have been "slimmed down" by warrants.
Real old investors will not forget the madness of warrants in those years, and the warrants in the bull market will only cross the line. Because of this, there is a huge profit myth that the grain subscription is less than 1 month, with an increase of 660%, and Wanhua will raise it to 7 1% in one day. How can such a huge opportunity not be exciting
When Baosteel's warrants were listed on August 23rd last year, we and some investors around us actively participated in the hype. Due to the short and cautious operation at the beginning, the yield is not ideal. By the end of last year, the four-month yield was about 1.50%. Since the beginning of this year, we have changed our tactics with the bull market, focusing on intraday band operation, with a yield of 300%.
Warrant speculation is not gambling, but intelligent speculation. In the process of speculating warrants, we deeply realize that in addition to skilled trading skills, we also need flexible operating strategies. On this basis, we summarize the three golden rules of warrant operation-
Rule number one: follow the trend.
Trends are investors' best friends, and we are determined not to make sideways and downward trends. Making money is second, and the safety of funds is always the most important. The core of speculation is to avoid uncertain trends as much as possible and only operate in a clear upward trend to increase the odds. If you make a mistake, you must stop loss, otherwise a mistake may even be fatal. The T+0 trading system of warrants is fair to all investors and gives us an opportunity to correct our mistakes at any time. For example, in 2005, when Baosteel warrants were sideways in the morning, we intervened at 1 1.983 yuan, but then the price fell instead of rising, and when it fell below the moving average, it quickly stopped at 1.968 yuan. After that, Baosteel's warrants fell all the way to 1.6 13 yuan, which really should be.
Rule 2: Just be a leader.
As the saying goes, the operation of warrants is like stock investment. Only by grasping the leader can we get a distinctive return. When choosing the leading warrants, you can refer to the volume-price relationship after the opening of the market every day to capture the "the only thrill" in the forefront of the day's gains. When most people in the market are bullish on a warrant, the * * * vibration caused by the power of the masses will continue to push up the stock price. Due to the increasing number of participants, the leading varieties will naturally continue to rise. For example, on May 7th, we promptly intervened in the subscription of the leading variety Hangang at the price of1.10/.The highest price was 1.739 the next day, and the profit in two trading days exceeded 50%.
Article 3: escape from the top quickly
It is generally not easy to hold positions overnight when making warrants, especially when there is a system to create. On June 28th, last year, 165438+, WISCO put forward its position under the ambush made by securities firms for three consecutive days, with a drop of 70%, and the people in it are bound to suffer heavy losses. We also lost 35% in just three days, because we held the position put forward by WISCO and it took us three weeks to turn things around.
The speculation cycle of warrants at home and abroad is divided into four stages: the first stage is the golden stage-the price goes out of the market and the irrational surge of stocks, and investors profit from the upward trend; The second stage is the silver stage-the price peaks and falls, the shock increases, and investors profit from the fluctuation; Third, the copper-breaking stage-the downward trend of prices is clear, investors "save themselves by production", and the risk increases; The fourth stage is rotten iron-from panic to limit, until the transaction price is lower than 0. 10 yuan. There are signs that the warrants of the two cities have entered the end of the golden stage and are about to enter the silver stage, and the risks are gradually increasing. However, because many funds and brokers have been involved in warrants on a large scale, there will be many opportunities for future warrants to fluctuate. As long as we grasp the rhythm and make full use of the advantages of T+0 trading system, we can still become the market winner.
To put it bluntly, speculating in warrants is a bit like passing parcels, but speculating in warrants with investment value can get stable and rich returns. In this unprecedented super bull market, we believe that speculation in warrants should be the main direction. In operation, every time millions of funds are dispatched, band operation is the main operation, and repeated operation is combined with stock performance. For example, the recent subscription of the leading variety Wuliang has been greatly promoted because of high market expectations. As for the put warrants that are actually worthless, even if they want to operate, they only use the method of "blitzkrieg", which is calm, decisive and swift, just like cheetahs lurking in the grass, seizing the opportunity to attack, making progress and retreating, and never staying for half a second.
Speculation should not only know how to make money, but also know how to stop loss. Never be insatiable, never be carried away by the victory of making money for a while, because warrants are very risky! Especially when many people only see huge profits and completely ignore risks, risks are gradually accumulating. Some participants don't even know how to stop loss. Once they enter a downward trend, how will they respond?
What is the "follow-up coefficient of retail investors"?
The difference between the ratio of buying small orders and the ratio of selling small orders is used to measure the degree of buying and selling small orders and reflect the participation of retail investors.
Sun Tzu said: "All soldiers will win with the right combination and surprise. Specifically, if they have superior forces, they will fight with the right soldiers and defeat the enemy. If the troops are not dominant or even at a disadvantage, we should consider winning by raiders. If the big single analysis is compared to the "right soldier", then the small single analysis is the "surprise soldier".
As we all know, in the stock market, the main players and retail investors are often antagonistic. If the main force of a stock is involved to a greater extent, then the involvement of retail investors is relatively small, and vice versa. To put it simply, when the main force pulls up and prepares to pull up, the turnover rate of retail investors is often relatively small, while when the main force pulls up and ships, the turnover rate of retail investors is often relatively large. Therefore, if we encounter obstacles when analyzing large orders, we can often get a surprise victory when analyzing small orders.
The retail follow-up coefficient is used to measure the degree of retail follow-up, because in the stock market, the crazy follow-up behavior of retail investors often indicates the reversal of the market. The less retail investors follow the trend, the greater the chance of rising. Therefore, when judging the behavior of the main force, the smaller the absolute value of the follow-up coefficient, the easier it is to judge the trend of the main force. When the absolute value of the follow-up coefficient of retail investors is less than 3, it can be seen that the day's trading is driven by large funds, and the greater the rising potential; On the contrary, the greater the absolute value, the greater the motivation for market adjustment.
We look at the handicap of Zhenhua Technology in August 2004 19 (see the figure below for details), which seems to be a strong increase, but the follow-up coefficient of retail investors shows that the follow-up coefficient is-13.28%, resulting in a sharp decline for two consecutive days.
Supplement: 1. Retail investors follow suit: (small order-small order)/general manager ×100;
2. Retail investors follow suit, above 60, and stocks rise, which is the retail market;
3. Retail investors follow suit, below 30, stocks rise, which is the result of the main pull-up, indicating that there are not many selling orders;
4. Retail investors follow the trend, and the stock price falls below minus 30, which may be that the main force deliberately suppresses or goes out;
5. Retail investors follow suit, and the stock price falls above minus 60, which is sold by retail investors.
How to prevent bankers from cheating?
How to prevent bankers from cheating?
Bankers speculate in stocks in order to buy low and sell high, so as to obtain the bid-ask difference. Bankers will try their best to trick retail investors into selling when the stock price is low, and then lure retail investors into receiving goods at a high level after the stock price rises.
When the stock price is low or relatively undervalued, the dealer may mainly adopt the following methods:
Create fraud. When the dealer buys a certain number of stocks, the stock price will show a certain upward trend. In order to reduce costs and reduce short-term followers, dealers may sell in large quantities, causing the stock price to fall rapidly or even fall below important support levels, and then hang orders below to collect cheap chips sold by retail investors because of panic.
Create false trading volume. Bankers may combine deception to create the illusion that prices are rising and falling at a low level to trick retail investors into selling.
Take advantage of the inertia of retail investors