Once the policies of freedom of navigation rights and tax exemption for outlying islands are implemented, Hainan is likely to become another luxury shopping paradise in China after Hong Kong, and Hainan Airlines, as the largest operator in the local air transport market, is expected to become the A-share listed company with the greatest direct benefit.
Under the condition that the Qiongzhou Strait cross-sea passage has not been completed, the unique geographical position of Hainan Island makes aviation the most important mode of transportation for people to enter and leave Hainan Island. According to statistics, the number of people flying in and out of the island accounts for 56% of all passenger traffic.
HNA is the mother ship of HNA Group's aviation assets. Hainan Airlines and its Xinhua Airlines (holding 60%), Shanxi Airlines (holding 93.2 1%) and Changan Airlines (holding 83.75%) mainly operate air trunk routes. The main aviation bases are Haikou, Sanya, Beijing, Xi, Taiyuan and Shanghai. HNA is superior to other airlines in terms of gross profit margin, non-daily utilization rate, passenger load factor and sales expense ratio, and its capacity expansion speed is also faster than that of the industry, which was 36% and 20% in 2009 and 20 10 respectively, while the average growth rate of the industry was about 10%.
At present, haikou meilan international airport and Sanya Phoenix International Airport have opened more than 300 domestic and international air routes. In 2008, HNA's market share in the above two airports was 44% and 1 1% respectively.
According to statistics, about 30 million mainland residents visit Hong Kong every year. Due to the limited tourist attractions in Hong Kong, most mainland tourists come to Hong Kong to buy duty-free brand-name cosmetics, bags and clothing. Compared with Hong Kong, on the one hand, Hainan is richer in tourism resources, on the other hand, mainland residents do not need complicated procedures such as visas to go to Hainan. Therefore, once the tax exemption policy for outlying islands is implemented, with more duty-free shops and international brands entering, Hainan is likely to become another luxury shopping paradise in China after Hongkong.
Chi Fulin, the proponent of Hainan International Tourism Island and the president of China (Hainan) Reform and Development Research Institute, recently said that a major policy that Hainan may realize in the short term is to learn from Hong Kong's experience and establish a duty-free zone for consumer goods in Hainan, that is, to introduce the domestic export tax rebate policy into one region and implement duty-free consumption tax and value-added tax for consumer goods throughout the island. Moreover, such a tax exemption policy can be enjoyed by all domestic and foreign residents and residents outside the island.
Driven by the rapid growth of residents' income, the number of people going to the only tropical island in China with special policies such as opening navigation rights and tax exemption for outlying islands is expected to increase rapidly. The research report released by changjiang securities (000783) recently also believes that if the international tourist island is approved, HNA will become the most beneficial airline, with 50% market share and 25% capacity. The report predicts that the company's performance may increase by 150% ~ 200%.
Hainan Expressway: "One Master and Two Assistants" both benefit from the huge space for real estate development.
Hainan Expressway, as the first listed expressway enterprise in China, is also one of the largest state-owned listed companies in Hainan. After years of development, the company has gradually developed into a diversified joint-stock group company with expressway management as the core and tourism service development and real estate development as the focus, forming a unique "one main and two auxiliary" business model.
Recently, the company sold Hainan State Guesthouse Co., Ltd., and then decided to bid for 0/00% equity of Dongpo Real Estate and acquire 938.7 mu of land in Danzhou City, Hainan Province. Between investment and progress, investors have an association with the company's main business in the future. I wonder if the real estate industry will become the growth source of the company from now on? However, with the dust of a package of special policies for international tourist islands settled, it is certain that the three major industries of Hainan Expressway will benefit at the same time.
In 2008, expressway's investment income accounted for 46% of the company's total income. At present, the company's investment income in expressway mainly comes from three aspects: (1) investing in the left and right line projects of expressway East Line in Hainan Island, you can get an investment compensation fund of1200 million yuan; Responsible for the maintenance of expressway around the island on behalf of the Communications Department, and the amortization fee of expressway's comprehensive income compensation right is about 50 million yuan per year; BOT projects reduce the principal by more than 50 million yuan every year.
Hainan Province has established a road traffic network with expressway as the backbone, which is the first area in China to implement fuel tax instead of tolls. Driven by the international tourist island, as the owner of expressway, Hainan Province, expressway does not charge tolls for passing vehicles, but with the increase of vehicles and oil consumption on the island, the company's fuel tax rebate income will also increase.
Real estate development will be the main source of rapid growth in expressway. The company invested in real estate projects in Haikou, Sanya and qionghai city in the east, and actively participated in the development of Tunchang plot in the middle. Recently, the board of directors of the company agreed to participate in bidding for 0/00% equity of Dongpo Real Estate/KLOC at a reserve price of 300 million yuan. Dongpo Real Estate's current assets are mainly about 938.7 mu of land located on the north side of Guo Sheng Road, Nada Chengbei New District, Danzhou City, Hainan Province, which has great appreciation potential. At this point, the company will realize the overall layout of real estate development in the eastern, central and western regions of the island, and form the embryonic form of cascade development.
The company mentioned in the 2009 annual business plan that it will seize the good opportunity of real estate development, make full use of the company's capital advantages, and increase the investment and development of real estate projects. Therefore, the proportion of the company's real estate business will greatly increase after the layout of the west line of the island is realized.
In terms of tourism service industry, the company is mainly operated by Hainan Treasure Island Hotel Management Company, Hainan Treasure Island Hotel Co., Ltd., Qionghai Treasure Island Hotel Co., Ltd. and Hainan Expressway Tourism Industry and Trade Transportation Co., Ltd., and the company also holds 30% equity of Hainan Haiqi Transportation Group Co., Ltd., a leading automobile transportation enterprise in Hainan Province. With the increasing number of tourists coming to the island, the tourism service business in expressway is expected to grow.
China International Travel Service: Hainan's "Duty Free First Share" Strategic Layout
"I personally think that the duty-free business of China International Travel Service will be the most favorable business for Hainan to build an international tourist island." A veteran in the tourism industry told reporters that the growth of overseas tourists will take time, but once the "China people's overseas shopping tax-free policy" is introduced, it will bring huge growth space to China Travel Agency. China Travel Agency is the only company under China Travel Agency that is qualified to open duty-free shops in the city.
It is reported that China's duty-free industry has a strong policy and has always been monopolized by the state. At present, only China Exemption Company, Shenzhen State-owned Duty Free Goods (Group) Co., Ltd., Zhuhai Duty Free Enterprise Group Co., Ltd. and Japan Duty Free Bank (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. are allowed to operate duty-free goods in China, among which only China Exemption Company can operate duty-free goods nationwide without geographical restrictions.
Insiders pointed out that since 200 1, China has successively approved China Duty Free Shop Company to open five duty-free shops in Beijing, Shanghai, Dalian, Qingdao and Xiamen to explore the development model of duty-free shops in China. However, the possible policy of "duty-free shopping for Chinese people leaving the island" will make Hainan Duty Free Shop face a completely different growth space from other city stores, and the customer structure of Hainan Duty Free Shop is expected to change from overseas tourists to a large number of domestic consumers.
Liu Du, a researcher at BOC International, pointed out that in 2008, Hainan received 20.6 million overnight visitors, 95.2% of whom were domestic tourists. Even if the proportion of inbound tourists is increased to 10% in 2065 and 438+03, and to 20% in 2065 and 438+08, domestic tourists are still potential quality customers of duty-free shops in the city.
Previously, the policy of duty-free shopping for all tourists in Okinawa, Jeju Island and Matsu areas of Taiwan Province Province brought about a huge growth in the local duty-free shopping market. Liu, a researcher at Industrial Securities, estimates that the scale of Hainan duty-free shopping market will account for 55% to 130% of the total sales of China Duty-free Group, based on the shopping rate of 10% and the per capita shopping consumption of 100 to $200. Based on the net interest rate of 20%, the increase in net profit will account for 89% to 177% of the current company's net profit.
According to the Action Plan for the Construction of Hainan International Tourism Island published by the Hainan Provincial Government last year, its policy orientation is "visa-free, tax-free and free navigation", and it is approved to accelerate the construction of duty-free shops in Haikou, Sanya, Qionghai and Wanning. At present, the first phase of Zhong Mian's duty-free shop in Sanya opened on September 1 this year, and the distribution of goods has been planned for consumption in China. The market expects that China Duty Free Shop will continue to expand the operation scale of Sanya Duty Free Shop and will continue to participate in the store construction in Haikou and other cities.
There are indications that the strategic layout of China International Travel Service has already begun. At the beginning of this year, China International Tourism Group and Hainan Provincial Tourism Bureau signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation framework agreement. By establishing a joint conference system, the two sides will jointly promote domestic and international markets and actively cooperate with Hainan to build an international tourist island. At present, related work has been carried out one after another. During the interview, many industry researchers told reporters that international travel agencies, duty-free goods and other businesses are expected to fully benefit from Hainan Island's new tourism policy by virtue of the resource advantages of large-scale comprehensive travel agencies with the largest scale, the strongest strength and the most comprehensive business types in China.
BTG shares: The issue of Nanshan ticket sharing does not hinder the appreciation of the company.
BTG, which owns the right to operate Nanshan Scenic Spot, the core scenic spot in Hainan, is considered by the market as one of the most flexible companies to benefit from the planning of Hainan International Tourism Island. However, since the Sanya municipal government vetoed the ticket sharing agreement signed with BTG last July, the follow-up plan is still pending. The reporter learned that at present, most analysts believe that BTG will maintain at least 40% of the tickets for Nanshan Scenic Area.
At present, Hainan Nanshan Cultural Tourism Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Nanshan Culture"), which holds 74.8% shares of BTG, is responsible for operating Nanshan Scenic Area. At the end of March 2008, Nanshan Culture and Sanya State-owned Company reached an agreement on ticket sharing. However, in July of that year, BTG announced again that the Sanya municipal government believed that the Nansan Ticket Sharing Agreement should be considered together with the transfer of Nanshan Guanyin assets and other related matters, and rejected the above agreement.
It is precisely because the implementation time and proportion of Nanshan ticket sharing is still unclear, so it is difficult to quantify the extent to which BTG benefits from Hainan's new tourism policy.
Zeng Lingbo, a researcher at CICC, said that according to BTG's original plan of getting 40% ticket share, BTG's earnings per share will be 0.47 yuan, 0.53 yuan and 0.62 yuan.
Zhao Xueqin, a researcher at CITIC Securities (600030), pointed out that due to the fact that the current share-sharing agreement is not ready, BTG shares have not accrued share-sharing. According to the original agreement, the fare share of BTG in the first half of 2009 should be 0. 19 yuan, which objectively caused the inflated book profit of BTG in the current period.
The reporter learned that at present, most analysts believe that BTG will maintain at least 40% of the tickets for Nanshan Scenic Area. However, BTG shareholders said that it is not yet possible to give a clear judgment, and if the Hainan Tourism Island policy is introduced, it may increase the income of Nanshan Scenic Area from two aspects: the increase in the number of tourists and the increase in fares.
The insiders believe that Nanshan Scenic Area, as a large-scale Buddhist cultural theme tourist area covering an area of 50 square kilometers, including landscape areas, resorts, hotels and other projects, will surely become a key project for Hainan to build an international tourist island, attracting tourists from neighboring countries at home and abroad, especially Southeast Asia.
In 2008, the income of Nanshan scenic spot was 3 1 1 10,000 yuan, and the net profit of scenic spot equity reached 97.86 million yuan, accounting for 17.4% of the total income and 56.4% of BTG's net profit. In the first three quarters of this year, the revenue of Nanshan Scenic Area increased by 22% year-on-year, which largely made up for the slow recovery of BTG's hotels, exhibitions and other businesses and formed a strong support for BTG's performance.
Wang Ding, a researcher at GF Securities, pointed out that the performance of Nanshan Scenic Area is still in the stage of rapid growth. It is estimated that the total number of tourists in this scenic spot is expected to reach 2.8 million this year, and the performance is still increasing by more than 20% year-on-year.
Eight real estate stocks benefit from "international tourism island"
China baoan (000009):
China baoan has been deeply involved in Hainan real estate market for many years, and its land reserves are concentrated in Haikou, Sanya, Chengmai and Wanning. The developed buildings include "Baoan Jiangnan City", "Bao 'an Binhai Haoting", "Bao 'an Coconut Bay", Bao 'an Teana Health Base and Wenchang Bao 'an Commercial Plaza.
According to the securities herald, the company 1992 entered the Hainan market and chose the renovation project of Xiuying Street in Haikou, which can better interact with the government. In 200 1 year, the commercial and residential land was replaced by the project development right. In the first phase of that year, 250 mu of land was successfully acquired, and in the second phase of 2003, 323 mu of land was replaced. The changed land is now a well-known real estate project in Hainan-Haikou Jiangnan City. The price of villas has reached 15000/ m2, and the starting price of apartments has reached 8000/ m2.
The company also owns 2080 mu and 884 mu of agricultural land in Chengmai and Sanya, Hainan, respectively, and the land price cost is about 1.6 million/mu. In addition, the company owns five farm companies, including Hainan Baoan, Hong 'an, Sheng 'an, Jing 'an and Dashan, all of which are owned by 100%, with a total area of 2,654.38+0.5 million square meters.
At the same time, it also indirectly owns 9.95% equity of Hainan Coconut Island.
Central South Construction (00096 1):
On August 18, 2009, the company signed the Framework Agreement on Land Development Cooperation in Danzhou Binhai New Area, Hainan Province with the People's Government of Danzhou City, Hainan Province. According to the framework agreement, the company will develop about 4,500 mu of land in the second group of Danzhou Binhai New Area, with Danzhou Municipal People's Government and Zhongnan Construction accounting for 30% and 70% of the development income respectively.
"Securities Herald" learned that the company intends to purchase Wenchang Zhongnan Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. through non-public offering of shares. The Zhongnan Seascape Garden project developed by the company is located in Gaolongwan, Wenchang City, covering an area of 600 mu. It is a large-scale real estate project integrating residence, vacation, tourism, leisure and entertainment. However, with the promotion of the Aerospace City Project and the "International Tourism Island Project", Wenchang's house price has risen step by step, and now it has reached 5,000 yuan/square meter, and there is still a lot of room for price increase.
I believe that these two real estate projects in Hainan will bring considerable profits to this listed company with a total share capital of only 779 million.
Chinese Sports Industry (600 158)
Wantong Real Estate (600246):
In March this year, we jointly established Sanya Zhongti Wantong Olympic Real Estate and will jointly develop the "Sanya Olympic Bay Project". Among them, the Chinese sports industry accounts for 46% of the equity of the project, Vantone Real Estate accounts for 44% of the equity, and the International Olympic Committee and the Chinese Olympic Committee each hold 5% of the equity.
According to the data, Sanya Olympic International Village is located in Haitang Bay, Sanya City, Hainan Province. The total area of the project is about 2,200 mu, and the planned total construction area is about 350,000 square meters, including five functional areas: culture, sports, conference, vacation and business. It is estimated that the total investment is 5.2 billion yuan and the overall development plan is 7 years. Haitang Bay, where the project is located, is one of the five famous bays in Sanya. It is known as the "national coast" and is a key real estate project in Hainan.
This project has been supported by the International Olympic Committee, the Chinese Olympic Committee, the State Sports General Administration, the Hainan Provincial Government, the Sanya Municipal Government and other relevant departments. The start-up of Sanya Olympic Bay Project will greatly benefit from the construction of Hainan International Tourism Island.
Guangyu development (000537):
Guangyu development 65438+announced on February 25th that it plans to issue no more than 700 million shares to Luneng Group at 9.88 yuan/share to purchase real estate assets with an estimated value of about 5.92 billion yuan, and Luneng Group plans to inject relevant assets in the future.
Guangyu development intends to purchase real estate-related assets including Hainan Luneng Everbright Real Estate Co., Ltd. 100% equity, Hainan Ying Da Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. 100% equity, Hainan Sanya Bay New Town Development Co., Ltd. 100% equity and Hainan Yingbin Island Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. 50% equity.
The Securities Herald observed that Luneng Group is one of the largest land kings in Hainan, with 19 square kilometers of project land, and has successively invested in the development of Luneng Mountain Haitian, Sanya Bay New City, Blue Ocean Coconut Wind and Blue Ocean Fuyuan, with a total investment of more than 5 billion yuan. Products cover apartments, villas, garden houses, businesses, high-end facilities and large-scale urban complexes. In 2009, Luneng Group integrated Hainan real estate projects and established Hainan Lunengcheng Real Estate Co., Ltd., which managed four Hainan companies. This private placement, guangyu development is likely to become the financing platform of Hainan Luneng City and the biggest beneficiary of Hainan International Tourism Island.
Vanke A(000002):
As the largest A-share real estate company, the only real estate projects in Hainan at this stage are Longines Bay Project in Haikou. Longines Bay Project opened in March 2008, located on the west coast of Haikou, covering an area of 6,543.8+2,000 square meters and a construction area of 60,000 square meters, with a total of 384 suites, which have been basically sold out.
Its apartment price is 8000 yuan/square meter, and the villa price is 13000 yuan/ordinary square meter. Although the profit is high, compared with a big company like Vanke, the profit per share is not much. And because the basic sales are completed, it has little to do with Hainan International Tourism Island.
Cinda Real Estate (600657):
101On October 27th, the Proposal on Establishing a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hainan Academician Village Development and Construction Co., Ltd. was reviewed and approved. In August 2007, Hainan Academician Village acquired the 01-09-01-21plot in Meilan District, Haikou City. Now Hainan Academician Village plans to set up a wholly-owned subsidiary to develop the plot with its own funds of 365,438 yuan +0.86 million yuan.
Hainan Academician Village project covers an area of more than 600 mu, with a total construction area of 200,000 square meters and a planned total investment of 400 million yuan. This project has been highly valued and supported by the main leaders of the provincial government, who have all given instructions and instructions; Academicians from China Academy of Sciences and China Academy of Engineering are very concerned about this project, and regard it as an important measure for the Hainan provincial government to attach importance to knowledge and introduce talents.
ST Qionghua (002002):
Although there is the word Joan, the company has nothing to do with Hainan for a long time. However, with the reorganization of Jiangsu Guo Xin Asset Management Group, Guo Xin Real Estate 100% equity will be injected. This also means that the Longmuwan project developed by Guo Xin Group will also be injected into this future "Guo Xin Real Estate" company.
Longmuwan Project is located in Ledong County, Hainan Province. The core area of the project covers an area of 5,078 mu, and the planned investment is 654.38+0.5 billion yuan. The whole project is expected to take about 8 years and is divided into three stages. The investment in the first phase of the project is 3.6 billion yuan, of which Octopus Hotel, which covers an area of 3 14 mu, is the key core project of the first phase of the resort. The estimated construction period is 3 years, and the estimated investment is 1, 65.438+0 billion yuan.
With the promotion of international tourism island and land appreciation, the project will bring long-term profits to listed companies.