Of the 546 NBA players tested in COVID-19, 48 were positive. It is nothing new that every team has one or two people infected with COVID-19, but if two inside players scheduled to start next season are absent at the same time, it will undoubtedly cast a shadow over the Warriors' new season.
Clay Thompson tore his achilles tendon last month, which led to the reimbursement of the season. The warrior didn't give up passively. Instead, he made frequent moves in the trading market with huge luxury tax, and exchanged Iguodala's trading exception for Ubray, temporarily assembling a competitive lineup. Despite the team's great efforts, professional basketball data analysts reported the most pessimistic forecast for the Warriors' future next season. According to his own data model, Kevin Pelton, an expert in ESPN data analysis, predicts that the Warriors' winning percentage next season is only 3 1.2, and the probability of entering the playoffs is 9%, which is only higher than the ruined Thunder in the west, ranking second from the bottom in the west.
Is Pelton's prediction nonsense? He said that he referred to the real positive and negative data of ESPN, scored each player according to his attack and defense in SCHOENE forecasting system, calculated the attendance rate of players in the past three seasons, and subjectively predicted the playing time of each team. Multiply these minutes by the player's offensive and defensive scores, and you will get the team's score, which will be converted into the expected victory value. He used these predictions to simulate 10000 times, recording the average number of wins and the probability of each team entering the playoffs. Finally, Pelton said that his algorithm is more accurate than the odds offered by Las Vegas casinos in the past five years. Then let's analyze what serious injuries the warriors have that experts look down upon.
First, Curry's attendance and playing time.
In the past three seasons, Curry missed 365,438+0 games, 65,438+03 games and 50 games respectively, and the attendance rate was only 54.5%. In the first eight seasons of his career, Curry played only 26 games except1112 with an ankle injury. He attended 74 games in at least one season, and the attendance rate remained quite good. There is a big difference between the first eight seasons and the last three seasons, which is related to the excessive consumption in the playoffs during the Warrior Dynasty. Entering the finals for five consecutive years, the Warriors played a whole regular season more than other teams that did not enter the playoffs, which also aggravated the consumption of players. In order to maintain the fighting capacity in the playoffs, in the two seasons of 17- 19, the Warriors were slightly injured to Curry, so they should raise him as much as possible.
Pelton predicted that Curry would play 54 games next season, and the attendance rate of 75% was reasonable.
Curry with a baby face is no longer young. He will be 33 years old next March. Considering Curry's physical condition and age, the Warriors will definitely control his playing time. Cole said that he will try his best to keep Curry's average playing time at around 34 points next season, but he also said that it is "really difficult" to do this. After the age of 25, Curry averaged only 34.2 minutes per game in a single season. In order to make Curry's peak period last longer, even at the expense of record, warriors should not overuse Curry. 35 minutes is the limit of Curry's playing time.
Second, the true level of other warrior players
Wiggins and Ubray are highly anticipated by Warriors fans. After Thompson was injured, they had to step forward to fill Thompson's vacancy, but their style of play was completely different from Thompson's good at dribbling. Aggressive selection has also been criticized, so it does not perform well on many high-level data.
Wiggins has top sports talent and undisputed personality. After joining the Warriors, to put it mildly, he played selflessly, but to put it mildly, he was healthy. 2 1 year-old, the scorer averaged 23.6 points per game. In Warriors 12 games, he averaged only 15.7 shots per game, which was 3. 1 times lower than that in Timberwolves, and scored less than 20 points. As the main attacker of the team, his pick-and-roll attack efficiency is ridiculously low, with only 0.743 points per round, which is lower than 70% of the players in the league. Wiggins, who has the second highest salary in the team, can only be a fixed-point shooter and a cake eater if he can't be the second attacking point with the ball, which is really worrying. What's more, Wiggins can't do it as a fixed-point shooter. His jump shot score in each round is even lower than the league average, and his three-point shooting percentage in the last three years is less than 34%.
Ubray can replace Thompson's role to some extent. Last season, he made 300 3-pointers for the Suns, 90% of which were shot by defenders who were 4 feet away from him, and his open 3-pointer shooting rate was 34.7%, only lower than the league average. In contrast, Thompson shot 4 1.6% of 449 three-pointers in the 18- 19 season. Lack of stability has always been a problem of Ubray. Even though he was the second leading scorer of the Suns last season, the team didn't think he was not for sale. Bridges and Cameron Johnson have better chemistry in the sun.
The past performances of Ubray and Wiggins hardly make people have much confidence in their full integration into the Warriors' tactical system. Neither Green nor Wiseman can shoot, and playing together will completely block the team's space.
Next season, the opponent will certainly be more unscrupulous, and the Warriors can only find another way and try to find different countermeasures. Cole emphasized the importance of defense in front of the media, saying that the Warriors will strive to rank in the top ten of the league next season, while the Warriors are only ranked 11th in the league in both 18 and 19 seasons. Do you want to drive the attack through defense? Cole's abacus may not be that easy to play. In addition, because of the chain reaction of Thompson's injury, the depth of the Warriors' lineup has been stretched, and the overall level of the bench is far behind other playoff competitors. In case one of the main players is injured in the long season and Poole and others start again, the Warriors may really sneak into the draw area again.
Taking off the glory of the dynasty in the past five years, this warrior has become a mediocre team. The only thing worth looking forward to is whether Curry in the new season can turn decay into magic again and hit the face of data analysts with his own efforts.