For example, some time ago, the participants in the National Advanced Training Course on Pig Raising held in Jiangxi Province found that 80% of the participants were newly-built pig farms, and the investment scale was huge, with at least 5 million to several hundred million yuan invested. Some of them mainly use their own funds to develop the pig industry because they see that it is more profitable to raise pigs at present, and some of them first set aside some of their own funds and then receive state support according to the state subsidy policy for the pig industry. This situation is particularly common in all provinces at present. If this development continues, the pig industry in China will be divided into two types: one is professional and the other is speculative. Let's analyze this situation by occupation and speculation respectively. From today to the end of the year, we think several things will happen. Whether it is correct or not is for reference only.
1, the increase in feed prices leads to an increase in the cost of raising pigs.
After discussion with many domestic feed enterprises, we found that the price increase is inevitable, and calcium hydrogen phosphate (a trace element) is inevitable in feed production. This trace element has risen from less than 2000 yuan a ton a year ago to 6000 yuan a ton, and it will rise further. Sichuan Longman Group, which has the largest domestic output and the best quality and accounts for 40% of the national sales, is located in Mianyang City, Sichuan Province. The earthquake stopped enterprises and many mines. In order to resume normal production, we must wait for the aftershock to pass. Many feed enterprises in Sichuan go to other provinces to purchase, which leads to the rise of products, and other factors are also among them. Therefore, it is a great blow to domestic feed enterprises, and it is estimated that feed enterprises will close down and shuffle in a large area! Only large-scale and well-funded people can survive, so the significance to pig farmers is the same!
The price of meat has dropped.
Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission reduced the tax rate of export tax rebate for meat products, which is equivalent to restricting the export of meat products and opening up the import of foreign meat products. More foreign meat products enter China, which has the advantage of buffering the price of meat, mainly because of the arrival of the Olympic Games. No one knows when it will stop! This price drop does not mean that it has fallen to the bottom, but that there can be no high price.
Step 3 concentrate on slaughter
We know from some large-scale pig farms (more than 10,000 heads) that these pig farms have less slaughter in the first half of the year, and most of them will have more slaughter in July and August, so this period may be the low peak period of pig prices, which has to be considered.
4. The occurrence of floods
As the saying goes, when there is a snowstorm, there is a flood. If there is a flood, pigs in some areas will get sick because of the increase in feed transportation. You should know that a person should be prepared for danger in times of peace, and you can't wait for an accident to find a solution. It is very important for us to keep a high degree of vigilance. When the country is in trouble, everyone is responsible. We can't let our country suffer too much. Protecting yourself is protecting the country. The country is strong, so are you.
As a pig farmer, you have to bear the price fluctuation.
Everything is possible with your heart. If the price falls, some speculators will give up their investment, so professional pig farmers will still be the ultimate winners, but new diseases occur every day. Only by studying more can we overcome everything.
Pork has been running at a high price for a year in a row, which has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life. According to the latest data released by Zhengzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce, pork on the market has still increased slightly recently. Why can pork rise to the highest level in history? What will be the trend of pork price in the future? How can we make the pork market develop steadily and healthily? Where is the way for us to raise pigs?
"We must establish a long-term market early warning system to objectively count the stock situation in society." "Only by going to scale can the country control this market." These are two ways out given by animal husbandry experts.
Pork prices in the retail market are still rising.
On April 3rd 1 1: 40, not many customers came to buy food at Huaihe Farmers Market. There are seven or eight pork stalls here. As soon as the reporter approached, Ms. Zhang, a street vendor, warmly greeted: "Buy meat?" A catty of hind leg meat 14 yuan, and a catty of ribs 13 yuan and 15 yuan. "Across the street from the Shuanghui store, the hind leg meat per catty 15.7 yuan, ribs 18 pieces.
"Has the price of pork increased recently?" The reporter asked. "After the end of the year, it didn't go up much, and a catty fluctuated around 1 yuan." Ms. Zhang told reporters that after the Spring Festival, fewer people bought pork, and only one pig could be sold a day. "I don't want to sell high, I won't fall." Ms. Zhang said that in addition to various costs such as booth fees, selling a catty of meat is also a profit of 50 cents. "A few years ago, I sold six dollars per kilogram and earned fifty cents. Now I sell more than 20 yuan and earn 50 cents. "
Like Ms. Zhang, in fact, many farmers' market vendors don't want pork prices to rise. Ms. Cheng, a pork vendor at Weisi Road Farmers' Market, has the same idea. Ms. Cheng is a laid-off worker. Five years ago, she and her husband, Mr. Lu, who was also laid off, started renting stalls in the market to sell meat. Over the past year or so, income has not increased because of rising prices, but has declined. The double increase in the wholesale price of pork and the increase in market rental fees made her feel powerless. She said that there were 15 meat stalls in Weisi Road Farmers' Market, and the increase in meat prices in May 2007 directly led to the closure of five or six meat stalls.
According to the data released by Zhengzhou Municipal Bureau of Commerce last week, although the pork market price in Zhengzhou is still running at a high level compared with last year, it is basically stable and the price fluctuation is within a reasonable range.
The upstream production scale of the farm has increased significantly.
Wuzhi Wantou Pig Farm now has more than 6,000 pigs. Director Liang Zhongzhi plans to increase the number of pigs to over 1 1,000 by the end of this year. Regarding the profit of each pig, he calculated an account: "Now the cost of a commercial pig is about 1200 yuan, while the market price of a kilogram of pigs is about 17 yuan, and the profit of a pig is about 500 yuan."
In 2006, the price of live pigs was 2.8 yuan per catty, and the profit from selling one live pig was from 100 to 150 yuan. Now profits have increased by nearly 300 yuan.
"200 yuan per pig is already very high. Now the highest profit per pig can reach more than 700 yuan, which is the highest profit in the history of pig farmers. " Lu Baishun, president of Xingyang Pig Association, said.
Lu Baishun, who has 1 1 year experience in raising pigs, is very busy every day. In addition to managing the three pig farms under his name, he is responsible for information exchange and breeding technology exchange among member units. He also has an important task: regularly report the pig production to the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Commerce, and provide relevant suggestions. "My suggestion is highly valued."
According to Zhengzhou's statistical standards, there are more than 6,000 pig farms with more than 50 heads in Zhengzhou. Xingyang has more than 50 sow farms 150, with an annual slaughter of pigs 1000.
Due to the high profit of raising pigs now, large pig farmers in Xingyang have made great efforts to increase pig production. At present, three farms in Lubaishun can slaughter pigs 10000, and it is planned to slaughter 20000 pigs by the end of the year.
"At present, large-scale farmers are highly motivated and the production scale is expanding rapidly. According to a recent survey of 23 natural villages and 18 scale farms in Zhengzhou, 90% of farmers are producing at full capacity, with an average increase of 30%. " The relevant person in charge of Zhengzhou Animal Husbandry Bureau told the reporter.
The reporter learned from the online inquiry that this is common throughout the country. Since last year, due to the substantial increase in pig profits and the state's support policies, the number of large-scale farms in various places has increased a lot.
Why is the supply of live pigs insufficient? The number of free-range families in the country has dropped by 50%
Although the cost of feed, labor, seed conservation and epidemic prevention has increased by more than 40%, the profit of raising pigs is considerable, and each pig earns about 500 yuan, which can be said to be the highest level in history. On the other hand, large-scale farms are so fast, why are the pigs on the market still in short supply? In turn, the price has risen all the way?
"Many people predict that pork prices will drop in the second half of this year. I don't think this statement is completely accurate because the number of pigs is still insufficient. " The reason why Lu Baishun throws such a view is given.
"Blue ear disease swept across the country in 2006, which affected two-thirds of small-scale pig farms and thousands of free-range households. More than 50% retail investors and small-scale pig farmers have withdrawn from the ranks of pig production. The overall shortage of pigs has caused a deformed market in which pork prices have skyrocketed. " Lu Baishun said that according to the published data, before 2006, the pattern of pig production in China was that free-range households accounted for 75% and large-scale farms accounted for 25%. In Henan, the scale field is basically the same as that of free-range households. "Now too many retail investors have withdrawn from the pig market."
Lu Baishun said that pig diseases often cause a devastating blow to the pig industry. For example, Sichuan, the largest pig-raising province in China, got swine streptococcosis a few years ago and has not recovered yet. Has been transferred from a big province to a big province. "Once a pig is sick, its immunity and resistance are reduced, and its disease resistance is poor. When they get sick, they will die. Up to now, there are still many free-range households and large-scale pig farms affected by the epidemic, and the slaughter rate has declined. "
Lu Baishun is not the only one who says that free-range households have withdrawn from the market and the supply of pigs is insufficient.
"Our country used to raise pigs for the whole people, but now many farmers don't raise them, so when it comes to market supply, it must be in short supply." A large pig farmer in Zhengzhou analyzed the reasons for the increase in meat prices.
Liang Zhongzhi, director of Wuzhi Wantou Pig Farm, said: "A pig can earn 800 yuan for rural farmers. Why didn't he raise such a high profit? " Because his risk is too high, he raised 1 year, and suddenly the epidemic broke out and the pig died, which means that the breeding coefficient is too small. "
Liang Zhongzhi gave an example. A farmer feeds 10 pigs, and half of them may die within three months. No matter how high the profit is, he will lose money, so no one raises pigs now. Because farmers go out to work, they can earn 1000 a month, which is relatively risk-free.
In order to prevent the occurrence of various epidemics, pig farmers and pig farms are increasing the cost of medical treatment, disease prevention and disinfection of pig houses. Lu Baishun said that the investment in this item alone is four to six times higher than that of a few years ago. "It turns out that my veterinary medicine of 5,000 yuan per month is enough, and now I need 30,000 yuan per month."
"Small retail investors who only raise a dozen or twenty pigs do not have such anti-risk ability, so they withdraw from the market on a large scale. In contrast, there are still too few pig farms in Henan and even the whole country. " An animal husbandry industry expert in Zhengzhou analyzed this.
The reporter recently learned from Zhengzhou Animal Husbandry Bureau that more than 80% retail investors in six counties (cities) in Zhengzhou no longer raise pigs. Han cun, Wangcun Town, Xingyang City, used to be a professional pig-raising village. There are 1.900 pigs in 3,700 households in the village, and now 70% of the pig houses are empty. Wang Tianhe, a big pig farmer in the village, said that due to the unstable market, it is better for small households to raise pigs than to go out to work to earn more money, so the number of small households has been decreasing in recent years, especially last year, 80% of small households in the village were not raised.
There are two ways to solve the problem with expert advice.
How to improve the enthusiasm of farmers? "The country still has to control the disease. The losses of blue ear disease and No.5 disease are relatively large. The country still needs to come up with better methods and measures, which require manpower and capital investment. Farmers dare to feed pigs if they are not sick. " Lu Baishun and other large pig farmers also believe that the government should establish a modern information network, timely control the relationship between supply and demand of pigs in the market, and timely transmit market data to pig farmers.
So, where is the way out for pig production in China?
Experts believe that people need to improve the early warning and supervision system of pigs and change the mechanism of pig industry if they want to eat pork at reasonable prices frequently. I'm afraid these are two fundamental ways to solve the problem.
Under the influence of small-scale peasant economy for thousands of years, the pig production in China has not gone out of the free-range mode with farmers as the unit until now. This mode determines that the anti-risk ability of pig breeding is very low. In the face of the epidemic, they often seem powerless.
Ren, vice chairman of the Pig Society of China Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Society and vice director of the Department of Pig Production of Henan Agricultural University, believes that a long-term market early warning system must be established. He said: "From May 2006 to May 2007, there was a problem with the inventory situation, and the direct cause was illness. According to the normal forecast, the market situation can be predicted, which is preventable and treatable. If all functional departments can pay as much attention as the Prime Minister, there will be no big problems in the pig market. "
At present, pork prices continue to rise, although it is related to the large number of retail investors withdrawing from the market. But in the long run, in order to fundamentally solve the problem of people eating meat, "only by moving towards large-scale farming mode and increasing investment in pig production can the country control this market well." Ren said that now in China, large-scale farming, small-scale farming and scattered farming of thousands of households are like scattered sand and disorderly management. Therefore, it has become an inevitable trend to cultivate large-scale pig-raising enterprises and take the road of industrialization of scale, intensification and standardization, which is also the development path of pig production in China in the future.
"Our country must adopt this model, and foreign countries have gone through this model many years ago. For example, in the United States, there were 6.5438+0.5 million households engaged in pig production in the 1960s, and now there are only 670,000 households, gradually eliminating farmers who are not competitive, but the total number of live pigs on hand and released is about 90 million. Only in this way can it be conducive to the maturity of the pig industry, so that this market will not be so ups and downs. "
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