The capital market, which has been silent for a year, finally "meets the rain after a long drought". On March 16, A shares and Hong Kong stocks jointly staged a big counterattack. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.48%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 9.08%, the biggest one-day increase since 13 recently.
In a corner of the market, many Public Offering of Fund also ushered in a strong rebound. Among them, E Fund Zhang Kun Quality Select Fund (formerly E Fund mixed small and medium-sized stocks,111) rose in March 10. 10%16; The next day, the net value of the fund returned to the prefix of 6, and rebounded by more than 15% in two days.
"Public sacrifice brothers! Yyds ",March 17, some investors of E Fund in gub could not hide their excitement. Amid the uproar, some people admired Zhang Kun's "foresight". Because not long ago, on March 9th, Zhang Kun's E Fund for Quality Selection and E Fund for Blue Chip Selection (005827) relaxed the restrictions on large subscription one after another, and the previous 6.5438+0.8 million yuan was raised to 50,000 yuan.
Regarding the reasons for relaxing the purchase restriction, Caixin learned from the relevant persons of E Fund that "the purchase restriction at that time was mainly (because) the scale was too large, and the gradual liberalization of the purchase restriction was mainly because the scale was not so large". According to the financial entropy, by the end of 20021,the final net assets of E Fund's high-quality selection were1998.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 50. 18% compared with the same period of last year. However, the final net assets of E Fund's blue chip selection was 67.623 billion yuan, which was the same as that of the previous year.
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, told Caixin: "In the past, the purchase restriction was due to the hot investment atmosphere in the market. In order to protect the interests of investors and prevent them from being excessively sought after, [some fund managers] have taken measures to restrict purchases. But now the market is relatively poor, funds have withdrawn a lot, and the people's willingness to invest is very low. At this time, the purchase restriction is of little significance; On the other hand, some funds that want to bargain-hunting also hope to attract funds by liberalizing the purchase restriction. " However, Yang Delong also said that even if it is liberalized now, there will not be many new funds.
In fact, even though the market has rebounded in the past few days, many investors are still worried about the previous plunge. Take the E Fund in Zhang Kun as an example. As of March 15, the net value of the fund was 5.28, down about 25% from February 18 and down more than 50% from the previous high. Even if it bounced back in March 16 and 17, the losses of the people were still heavy.
Over the past year, due to serious losses, the gub of E Fund is full of "complaints" and "curses"-"Do you want to face Zhang Kun? You don't even control the withdrawal? " And "you received nearly 2 billion management fees. Is this the operating level? Strive for it when you have something to do. Can only take off with the wind? " ……
In the discussion around Zhang Kun, the classic drama "Love and hate are all in an instant" is staged all the time, and the "button" that triggers the change of the attitude of the citizens is the direct profit and loss of the fund. In recent years, with the changes in the capital market, Zhang Kun has also interpreted this sentence in the arms of public opinion.
Time goes back to 202 1 year 65438+1October 25th. On that day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.52% and the Growth Enterprise Market fell 0.09%. With more than 3,000 stocks floating green all day, the blue chip selection of E Fund managed by Zhang Kun rose by 5%, and countless citizens were excited.
The next day, after the words "blue chip" and "Zhang Kun" rushed to the hot search one after another, a picture with the words "Kun Kun flies bravely, Ai Kun (the name of KUN fans) will always be with you, Kun Kun is not old, and blue chips will grow old" was swiped on Weibo. At this point, people didn't notice that Zhang Kun had "left the circle". Zhang Kun's fans call themselves "Aikun (the name of KUN fans)", which not only established a "global support club" for Zhang Kun, but also spared no effort to help him.
"I bought it in 2002 1 and1,when everyone was talking about Aikun" and "I bought the small and medium-sized (E Fund) at the end of 2020, when many friends were recommending funds from Zhang Kun". Many investors have confirmed the "gold-sucking effect" of financial entropy under the "star halo" by personal experience.
Of course, the "love" of fans is not created out of thin air. Compared with those stars who sell dreams and create people in the entertainment circle, one of the keys for fund managers to "suck powder" is to "make money" for fans.
As the first fund manager with a "global support club", Zhang Kun's ability to make money is evident.
At present, there are four fund products managed by Zhang Kun, among which the original E Fund's small and medium-sized fund is the longest managed product in Zhang Kun. Since it took over on September 20 12, the cumulative return has reached 983.5% by the end of 2020, ranking among the best in its kind. Zhang Kun also won the "Golden Bull Award" trophy for four consecutive years; Another "masterpiece" of Zhang Kun, E Fund Blue Chip Select Fund, performed equally well, with a cumulative rate of return exceeding 174% in less than two years.
According to the financial entropy analysis, in 2020 alone, Zhang Kun earned 36.356 billion yuan for Aikun (the name of KUN fans) through its four funds.
With the growth of yield curve, the scale of fund management in Zhang Kun is also expanding year by year. By the end of 2020, the total scale of E Fund managed by Zhang Kun has exceeded 654.38+02 billion yuan, making him the first fund manager in Public Offering of Fund history to manage active equity funds with a scale of more than 1000 billion yuan. Therefore, he was named as "the elder brother of public offering".
But the management scale is too large, which may bring troubles to fund managers. Yang Delong told Caixin, "Funds with a scale of more than 5 billion will have certain difficulties in operation. For example, the number of promising targets may not be enough, and the impact cost of buying and selling on the market will be higher. Therefore, when the scale is too large, the best way is to adopt a purchase restriction. "
Zhang Kun is well aware of the risks, and started the "purchase restriction" strategy very early. According to incomplete statistics of financial entropy, since 2020, E Fund's small and medium-sized enterprises have experienced six adjustments of the subscription ceiling, from the purchase restriction of 1 10,000 to the suspension of subscription of 5438+0 on February 24, 2026; E Fund's blue-chip selection has been restricted from trading below 2000 yuan.
It is worth mentioning that, on the same day when the subscription suspension announcement was issued, E Fund announced that it would start the first cash dividend in 20021year and distribute it to 9 yuan for every 10 fund share. This is the biggest dividend since the establishment of the small and medium-sized E Fund. The combination boxing of "limited purchase and bonus" was once regarded by the industry as a signal for Zhang Kun to remind the outside world of risks.
Caixin noted that Zhang Kun also "euphemistically" suggested risks in the fund annual report in 2020: "In recent two years, the compound rate of return of public equity funds is much higher than the market average ROE level, and this trend is difficult to sustain for a long time. Therefore, we should probably lower our expectations for the rate of return. "
It's a promise! With the sudden change of macro-environment and the change of market style since 20021,the performance of funds managed by Zhang Kun has gone from bad to worse. The largest retracement of E Fund's small and medium-sized stocks and E Fund's blue chip selection once reached 30% and 3 1.88%, ranking the bottom among similar funds.
With the decline of fund performance, Zhang Kun's investment ability is inevitably questioned, and many fans have "lost powder" or even "turned black" on the Zhang Kun due to serious losses.
But there are still many "rational fans" who recognize Zhang Kun's personality charm. In their view, Zhang Kun's dividend at a high level made investors feel safe, and the suspension of subscription also prevented the citizens from increasing their losses due to the increase of positions in the next 1 year, which is commendable in both character and ability.
Compared with investors' "love-hate relationship" with Zhang Kun, people in the industry spoke highly of Zhang Kun. Some people think that he is one of the few people who can "combine knowledge with practice", while others praise him as "Buffett" in the public offering of China fund industry. BOC Securities once wrote a 2 1 page in-depth report for Zhang Kun, calling it "a few star fund managers who can stably outperform the market for a long time".
Zhang Kun himself is always modest in his evaluation of the outside world.
"I think it takes at least 10 years to evaluate an investor in order to smooth out the influence of style, cycle and luck. Compared with many outstanding international investors with a record of 30 or even 50 years, I still have too much to learn and accumulate. " This is Zhang Kun's statement in the fund management company's annual report in 2020, when Zhang Kun's term of office was less than eight years.
If it is difficult to judge whether Zhang Kun's performance is due to luck or other factors because of time, it has been nine years since Zhang Kun became the first fund manager on March 9, 2022, which is close to 174 days. Looking back at the current node, we may be able to give Zhang Kun a relatively objective evaluation.
According to incomplete statistics of financial entropy, as of March 9, 2022, among the nearly 3,000 fund managers in the A-share market, only 12 fund managers have managed the same active stock fund for more than 9 years, and their tenure has exceeded 15%, among which only 3 have an annualized rate of return of more than 20%, and Zhang Kun ranks second. Judging from the results, Zhang Kun's fund management level can be described as "top-notch".
In order to better explore the ingredients behind this report card, Caixin dismantled the annual report of E Fund's small and medium-sized fund, trying to restore a real Zhang Kun.
Judging from the annual increase, in the past eight years, the small and medium-sized E Fund headed by Zhang Kun only achieved negative returns at 20 18 and 202 1, of which 20 18 was still at the forefront of its kind, although it dropped by 14.3%. In addition, except for 20 14 and 202 1, E Fund's small and medium-sized stocks have outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index for many years.
From the perspective of investment logic, since taking over the small and medium-sized stocks of E Fund in September, 20 12, Zhang Kun has devoted himself to demonstrating his "investment style"-in the adjustment of equity assets, constantly increasing the investment proportion of stocks with distinctive business model, clear growth and reasonable valuation level, and firmly holding them for a long time.
From 20 13 to 20 16, E Fund's small and medium-sized enterprises gradually strengthened the allocation ratio of food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and other industries. Especially in the liquor sector, Kweichow Moutai (6005 19. SH)20 14 bought Q2 Wuliangye (000858. SZ)20 15 buys Q2, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD shares (000568. SZ) Q2 layout at 20 15. Since then, liquor has played a "lightweight" role in the income changes of small and medium-sized enterprises in E Fund.
However, during this period, the performance of small and medium-sized E Fund in the same industry is not bright. From the yield curve, E Fund's small and medium-sized funds began to show an obvious income growth trend after 20 16, especially after 20 19, and the growth curve became steeper, which was not unrelated to the change of market style at that time.
Around 20 16, the market style gradually changed from small and medium-sized stocks to white horse blue-chip stocks with low valuation and steady growth in performance. E Fund's small and medium-sized stocks, such as home appliances, medicine, liquor and other industries, have begun to show advantages. With the arrival of the 20 19-2020 consumer bull market, the fund's pursuit of white horse blue chips such as liquor is almost fanatical, and the income and scale of small and medium-sized stocks of E Fund have also increased significantly in the past two years.
Zhang Kun once admitted that "the fund's sustained excess returns come from the alpha of individual stock selection, that is, to explore high-quality growth companies and hold them firmly for a long time". Take "The Cottage Record" as an example. By the end of 20021year, Kweichow Moutai had 35 consecutive quarters, Wuliangye had 32 consecutive quarters and LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD had 27 consecutive quarters.
It can be seen that Zhang Kun's previous success not only stems from his ability to choose individual stocks, but also is inseparable from the times.
"At least in your career, you should dare to confront the whole market two or three times, and dare to say yes when the whole audience says no", which is the quality that Zhang Kun thinks a good investor should possess.
Of course, only successful people have the confidence to say such things.
In Zhang Kun's career of nearly 10 years, there have been many such successful "resistance": for example, after buying Maotai in 20 13 years, it fell by 30% due to the "plasticizer" storm and the restriction of "three public consumption", but Zhang Kun still chose to add positions against the trend, which led to the legend that "young people don't understand the fragrance of liquor"; 20 17, Hualan Bio (002007. SZ) Due to the lower-than-expected performance of the interim report, it fell by more than 20% in 9 days, but Zhang Kun chose to continue to bargain-hunting, and did not miss Hualan's rising market of more than 200% in the next three years.
But Zhang Kun also believes that confrontation with the market will always fail. And the cost of failure, seems to be more tragic than Zhang Kun expected.
From Q4 of 2020 to Q 1 of 202 1, Zhang Kun bought TAL out of optimistic judgment on the future trend of the education industry. Buy a lot of NYSE and New Oriental (0990 1) through E Fund Asia (1). However, with the introduction of the "double drop" policy in July 20021,the education stocks collapsed across the board, and the net value of E Fund Asia Select Q2 202 1 fell by 9.79%.
In the interim report of E Fund 202 1, Zhang Kun "rarely" admitted the mistake: "The stock price of teaching and training enterprises fell sharply in the second quarter due to policy expectations, which had a certain negative impact on the net value of the fund, and also made me reflect on some assumptions in the long-term investment framework, hoping to further improve it."
In fact, the performance of E Fund Asia Select Fund has been unsatisfactory even if there is no education department.
Since Zhang Kun 20 14 took charge of the fund, it has been mainly used to allocate Hong Kong stocks and China Stock Exchange. However, the increase over the years, except for 20 17, 20 19 and 2020, has not performed well in other years. And even if it is a positive return, its performance is not much better than the Hang Seng Science and Technology Index.
Zhang Kun once admitted in an investment note of 20 13 that "the performance of investment is determined by two aspects, one is how many opportunities are seized, and the other is how many mistakes are made". Looking back over the past year or so, Zhang Kun's poor performance in fund management is also mainly related to these two factors.
On the one hand, Zhang Kun missed the excellent market of 202 1 new energy and semiconductors in order to stick to his "competence circle", resulting in poor performance of the fund; On the other hand, since 2020, Zhang Kun has frequently stepped on stocks, and the most typical one is to buy Mei Nianda Health (002044. SZ) Q3 2020.
At that time, the healthy goodwill of the United States was high, and non-net profit declined for five consecutive quarters. It stands to reason that such a company should not appear in the "stock selection pool" in Zhang Kun. But Zhang Kun not only made a big bet, but the subsequent operation was even more puzzling.
In the third quarter of 200213, Alibaba (09988.HK) significantly reduced its shareholding in American Health, resulting in its share price plummeting by more than 20%. However, under the control of Zhang Kun, E Fund's small and medium-sized funds and E Fund's blue-chip selection funds are "going upstream", and E Fund's small and medium-sized funds even increased their positions in 202 1 Q 1. Everyone knows the following story-with the thunderous performance, the share price of Meinian Health fell by 60% in just half a year, and E Fund's blue-chip selection and E Fund's small and medium-sized stocks "fled" Q2 and Q3 of 202 1 successively.
To make matters worse, with the promulgation of the national anti-monopoly policy, Internet giants such as Tencent (00700.HK) and Meituan (03690. HK), which originally contributed excess income to E Fund's blue-chip selection in 2020, encountered Waterloo on 202 1, and the fund was under great pressure to withdraw.
Patience, in this context, in September, 20021year, JD.COM changed its "E Fund's Small and Medium-sized Mix" to "E Fund's High-quality Selection", expanded its investment scope to A shares and Hong Kong stocks, and bought Tencent, 096 18. HK), Hong Kong Stock Exchange (00388.HK) and other heavy stocks. Among them, Tencent Holdings rose passively in Zhang Kun, and actively increased or reduced its position in liquor. In the fourth quarter of 2002/kloc-0, it became the first heavyweight stock in E Fund's high-quality selection, E Fund's blue-chip selection and E Fund's three-year holding period (009342), and the second in E Fund's Asian selection.
However, after the beginning of 2022, a "China Stock Exchange Storm" caused Internet giants such as Tencent and JD.COM to suffer heavy losses again. Zhang Kun's funds suffered losses one after another, among which E Fund Blue Chip recorded a record decline of 44.59% on March 15.
E Fund's high-quality selection is also the first time in the past decade that it has withdrawn from more than 45%, which is really rare.
In addition to missing the hot market, liquor stocks in Zhang Kun kept stepping on thunder in some enterprises. Looking back, they did not achieve cycle crossing, and the trend was equally weak in the past year.
Borrowing Zhang Kun's own evaluation of Robertson, the head of Tiger Fund, his poor performance in the past year or so is the result of the superposition of three factors: "missing what he is not good at, failing to do well in what he is good at, entering what he is not good at and doing wrong".
Go for a ride, whether you are pushed to the altar or stepped into the bottom, Zhang Kun or that Zhang Kun. Starting from 20021,the optimistic judgment on the future trend, and gradually liberalizing the purchase restriction in 2022, all these actions show that Zhang Kun is insisting on his "independent thinking".
But after the recent year of Waterloo, did Kun succeed in this "confrontation"?