20 19 performance summary
Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. 20 19? Achieve an annual income of 457.9? 1 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase? 55%, net profit goes to the mother? 45.6? 1 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase? 35%, what is the non-net profit? 39.2? 1 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase? 25%? . Is EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax and depreciation) 104? 1 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase? 62%。
What is more remarkable is the increase in shipments: the sales volume in 20 19 reached 40.25? GWh is 90.04% higher than 20 18. This figure can show that the overall operation of Ningde 20 19 is very good.
However, the 20 19 power battery industry is quite depressed, which highlights the value and difficulty of Ningde's high growth. In 20 19, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China was 62.38GWH, a year-on-year increase of 9%, which was the slowest growth in recent years. ? Among them, the installed capacity of power battery of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in 20 19 years was 32.3 1Gwh, up 37% year-on-year, accounting for 5 1.8% of the total installed capacity, up 10.5 percentage point compared with 20 18 years, showing that the industry is in a favorable position.
Ningde's revenue profit growth rate is much higher than the overall growth rate of the industry, indicating that the Matthew effect of the industry is very obvious, and the winner takes all.
Generally speaking, the 20 19 annual report of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is conservative and cautious:
(1) Development expenditures are all included in the cost instead of capitalization, which is rare in the power battery and new energy vehicle industries; Otherwise, the profit can reach 60+billion. (2) The comprehensive depreciation life of fixed assets is 6.28 years, which is obviously lower than that of Yiwei Lithium Energy and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech; This excess depreciation cost is 650 million. (3) One-time provision was made in 2019 years compared with 20 18 years, which affected the profit by about 600 million.
Therefore, according to the industry practice, the profit of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in 20 19 can reach 7 billion.
The era of electric vehicle parity is coming.
From the perspective of gross profit margin, Ningde's sales gross profit margin has continuously decreased from 20 16 to 20 19, which also reflects the overall situation of the industry. The decline in gross profit margin is mainly due to the continuous decline in subsidies, which makes the price reduction pressure of OEMs pass upstream. Ningde passed on the pressure of battery price reduction to his upstream material suppliers and resource suppliers. There is also a part of Ningde itself, and the reaction is the reduction of gross profit margin in the report.
In addition, according to the financial report, the price of power batteries shipped by Ningde throughout the year has dropped to? 1.08? Rmb /wh, of which the average Q4 shipping price of 20 19 has been lowered to 0.9 yuan /wh.
According to my prediction of the parity era of electric vehicles in 20 17-the end of fuel vehicles and the arrival of EV era, this price basically means the arrival of the parity era of electric vehicles, that is to say, from the perspective of economics, the turning point of sales of new energy vehicles is coming.
The delivery price of Ningde 20 19 decreased by 20% year-on-year, but the gross profit rate only decreased by 10% year-on-year, which also included the decrease of gross profit caused by the change of depreciation policy (some fixed assets depreciated by 20 18 for 5 years and 20 19 for 4 years). The decline of gross profit margin is much lower than the decline of sales price, which shows that Ningde has strong bargaining power upstream and downstream, which also reflects the status of industry giants.
The core reason why the manufacturing cost of new energy vehicles is higher than that of fuel vehicles is that batteries are expensive. In the past, the cost of batteries accounted for at least 50% of the cost of new energy vehicles, and the high cost made it difficult for new energy vehicles to face the competition with gasoline vehicles. In recent years, the price of batteries has been decreasing. At present, the proportion of batteries in new energy vehicles has dropped to about 30%.
From last year's Eternal Tower and Geometry A to this year's Tucki P7 and Arcfox? This year, we will see more electric vehicles with high endurance, intelligence and high cost performance. The power, endurance and cost performance can be compared with that of gasoline vehicles.
Growth forecast in 2020
In the long-term growth industry of new energy vehicles, the performance of power battery manufacturers is essentially determined by the overall sales of new energy vehicles in the industry. The better the new energy vehicles sold by customers, the greater the battery sales in Ningde.
Which cars are equipped with Ningde batteries?
According to the statistics of Hi-Tech lithium battery, Ningde, a domestic mainstream car company, basically participated in the battery supply, accounting for more than 50% of the supply. Up to now, the new force of making cars on the head has used Ningde's battery. At the same time, the positioning of high-end joint venture vehicles is mainly based on Ningde batteries.
Soochow securities's research report also calculated Ningde's shipments in 2020 through customer segmentation. It is estimated that the shipment of Ningde will increase by 17% in 2020.
Looking at the source of increment, the increment of Ningde in 2020 will mainly come from joint ventures and new forces to build cars, and traditional independent brand manufacturers will decline to a certain extent.
Personally, I think this prediction is still somewhat reliable. Under the general situation of industry adjustment this year, some traditional independent brands that rely heavily on B-side operation and shipment will definitely decline seriously. As a joint venture manufacturer and a new force to build cars, 2020 will release explosive products one after another, which will have a good response in sales.
This article is written for the special author of EV Vision:
Liu Xiaohong, a veteran of the electric vehicle industry, has worked for Volkswagen, Ford and Barton for ten years, and is now the founder of Shanghai EV Technology Consulting Co., Ltd.; chief evecutive officer
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.