Will you be robbed of your job in the era of artificial intelligence?

Moderator: Cao Yaxin Commentators:

President of Syracuse, Judah: sebastian thrun

Chairman innovation works: Kai-Fu Lee

Media person: Yang Lan

President of Baidu: Zhang Yaqin

Zhihu User: Mianmian Client: Mr. Gao Fang Style: Readers call to ask questions: Artificial intelligence has occupied our lives: mobile phones, watches, sweeping robots and even smart refrigerators, as well as applications in more advanced fields. The emergence of unmanned supermarkets has reduced cashier posts; With the emergence of driverless driving, there may not be full-time drivers in the future ... News reports say that more robots may be put into production in the next 20 years. Living with robots will no longer be the only plot in TV or novels, so will robots take our jobs?

Can you imagine? Robots also have legal status! 10/On October 25th, Sophia became the first female robot with Saudi nationality, and she was also the first robot in the world to be granted legal citizenship. Sophia can not only answer all kinds of questions, but also adjust the atmosphere with humorous words. When she first appeared, she even said the word "destroy mankind".

With the deepening of human exploration in the field of artificial intelligence, and with the "Alpha Dog" beating the world's major chess kings one after another, people began to expect when a robot with a completely independent personality like human beings will appear. At the same time, I began to worry that such a robot would become a threat to mankind like the terminator in the movie. Artificial intelligence is getting closer and closer to our life. Can we choose a robot as our friend? Will they accept human work?

Optimistic artificial intelligence makes life more efficient.

The appearance of Sophia once again pushed artificial intelligence to the forefront of people's attention. Although people are still judging the real intention of Saudi Arabia, it is generally believed in the industry that artificial intelligence will play an important role in the fourth industrial revolution. The first areas subverted by artificial intelligence will include manufacturing, retail, medical care and finance, and will create new winners and losers in each industry.

Sebastian thrun, President of Xuecheng, Judah

In the future, the changes of artificial intelligence on human life will be the same as those brought about by agricultural revolution and industrial revolution, which will make us stronger. It will free us from repetitive tasks that don't require brains, such as many tasks that you do repeatedly in the office every day. In the future, lawyers can waste less time looking for information and spend more time thinking creatively; The misdiagnosis of doctors will be greatly reduced. They can better diagnose human diseases and spend more time communicating with patients instead of staring at skin tissue samples.

The title given by Saudi Arabia is more of an honor, which does not mean that artificial intelligence has really reached such a high level. Sophia looks realistic, but in the final analysis it's just a bunch of engineering and chip technology.

Everyone is familiar with the mechanical dog. It can run like a dog, kick it and even respond to dogs in the real world. Its appearance is frightening, but as far as its scientific principle is concerned, it is not mysterious. No matter how exquisite the mobile phone is, it is still a mobile phone. No matter how realistic the robot is, it is still a machine. So, don't worry too much. We might as well appreciate the shock that Sophia brought us with a different attitude. This is the achievement of human civilization, not an affirmation of robots, but an affirmation of human capabilities.

Pessimistic robots lead to mass unemployment.

Sophie, who is talking and laughing, really looks like a human, and her skin is almost the same as that of a human: she is made of an extensible material called Frubber, and the pore size on her face can reach 4 to 40 nanometers (one billionth of a meter), which is basically the same as that of a human. Computer algorithms in the "brain" can help it quickly recognize faces and make eye contact with people. Not only that, Sophia can understand the language and remember the interaction with human beings, including the face. With such "intelligence", how much human work will be replaced?

Li Kaifu, Chairman of innovation works

With the further development of artificial intelligence, it will inevitably impact employment. Many jobs and occupations will gradually disappear, such as bank tellers, customer service representatives, telemarketers, stock and bond traders, and even paralegals and radiologists will be replaced by such software. Different from the industrial revolution and the information revolution, the influence of artificial intelligence technology does not simply point to certain positions and occupations. For example, craftsmen in traditional manufacturing industries are replaced by assembly line workers; Or replace a secretary who can only use paper and typewriters with a personal assistant who is proficient in computers; Artificial intelligence brings about a large-scale subversion of existing occupations and work layouts. Needless to say, most of them are low-paying jobs, but some high-paying jobs will face challenges.

Hawking wrote in a column in the British newspaper The Guardian: "Factory automation has caused many traditional manufacturing workers to lose their jobs. The rise of artificial intelligence is likely to spread unemployment to the middle class, leaving only care, creation and supervision for mankind. " AI has greatly improved the efficiency of industrial production, but for ordinary people, it means unemployment and uncertainty, because their jobs are gradually replaced by machines.

Technology has destroyed many traditional manufacturing industries and blue-collar jobs, and the next step may bring similar disasters to the middle class. According to a report released by Citibank in cooperation with Oxford University in February this year, it is predicted that 47% of jobs in the United States may be replaced by robots. In Britain, the proportion is 35%. In China, the proportion is as high as 77%, while in OECD countries, on average, 57% of the work will be automated.

There is no need to avoid the general trend of artificial intelligence.

Supporters expect artificial intelligence to bring great convenience to life and work, while opponents believe that artificial intelligence will eventually rule mankind like Skynet and Matrix in sci-fi movies Terminator and Matrix. Especially in recent years, artificial intelligence technology has developed rapidly, and artificial intelligence programs such as Google AlphaGo have appeared one after another, which has intensified this debate. The emergence of the debate proves the arrival of the era of artificial intelligence, which we can't and shouldn't avoid.

Media person Yang Lan

I thought of what Andrew Ng, an associate professor in the Department of Computer Science and the Department of Electronic Engineering of Stanford University and director of the artificial intelligence laboratory, said: "I think artificial intelligence will bring great influence to society. I sometimes make an analogy, artificial intelligence is the electricity of the future. " I quite agree with Professor Wu that artificial intelligence will affect our lives like water and electricity in the future. This is not just a media stunt, but a heartfelt feeling after I came into contact with artificial intelligence. In the era of internet of everything and intelligence of everything, it will be integrated into our lives and be everywhere.

Zhihu users sleep.

Let's recall what happened when the Internet first came into people's sight. Most people around me are still reading paper newspapers, thinking that staring at a large piece of content on a computer screen will make them "dizzy". I will go to several stores to compare the price and quality, and think that buying things online is just a gimmick: "Dare to place an order without feeling it in person?" Yes, when the internet is in the ascendant, people are both excited and excited about its arrival, and there is also a kind of contradiction and conflict, because it comes too fast and completely changes the past life mode in detail.

Nowadays, artificial intelligence must be the key word of the next era. In the past, artificial intelligence was something in science fiction. Even a few years ago, I still remember chatting with Siri on Apple's mobile phone, and I thought it was such a stupid thing. However, when more and more incredible human-computer interaction appears in our real life, when "Alpha Dog" defeats every Go genius, we can only say that the era of artificial intelligence is the general trend.

Artificial intelligence will eventually serve people.

Based on the assumption that the other person can be equal to or even better than human beings, human beings have created many science fiction works. For example, Animal Farm tells that a group of animals drive human beings out of society, while in Brave New World, human beings become the product of science and technology. One episode of the anime sci-fi film Rick and Modi also tells that dogs have artificial intelligence and conflict with humans. However, compared with the chaos in these works, robots may pose a more specific threat, especially at the moment when technological progress is changing with each passing day and human sense of crisis is unprecedentedly intensified. Are these concerns really necessary?

Baidu President Zhang Yaqin

Artificial intelligence is the most transformative force of our time, and it is changing everything we do. "Cleverness" and "wisdom" are two concepts. The former is the extension of human brain power, and the latter is the unique advantage of human beings as the spirit of all things. As an inorganic machine, it is difficult to reach the level of intelligence. However, it is both possible and valuable for machines to simulate human emotions and expressions, and emotional computing has become a booming branch of artificial intelligence research.

We should not be afraid of artificial intelligence, but we should consciously pay attention to its controllability. Like other technologies where opportunities and risks coexist, as long as the relevant research is guaranteed not to go astray, it will not have great consequences. Human wisdom has made artificial intelligence, so in the end, artificial intelligence will be used by human beings.

Sebastian thrun, President of Xuecheng, Judah

I won't give up my sense of autonomy just because AI can make better decisions. I think the purpose of creating AI is to make it serve human beings, not to replace them. I think it is very important that intelligent AI can make us smarter and let us finish our work better. Machines and AI can help us, making our knowledge richer, our memory better, and our information and experience faster. So I'm not pessimistic about AI, I'm actually optimistic. From this perspective, it will become more and more important for us to maintain lifelong learning. AI will become smarter and smarter, and we must keep learning and not fall behind.

What job is most likely to be eliminated by robots in this era? What is the least likely to be eliminated? Based on the data system of researchers Michaelo Orne and CarlFrey of Cambridge University, BBC analyzed the elimination probability of 365 occupations in the future.

If your job meets the following characteristics, then you are likely to be replaced by robots: skills that can be mastered through training without talent; A lot of repetitive work, you don't have to go to work every day, but you are familiar with it; Working space is small, sitting in a cubicle, I don't know what is happening in the world. The following are the most easily replaced occupations (in order of probability):

Telephone salesman, typist, accountant, insurance salesman, bank clerk operator, front desk customer service, personnel security, real estate agent 99.0% 98.5% 97.6% 97.0% 96.8% 96.5% 95.6% 91.0% 89.7% 89.3% 86%.

If your job includes the following three types of skills, then the possibility that you will be replaced by robots is very small: social skills, negotiation skills and the art of human understanding; Compassion and sincere help and concern for others; Creativity and aesthetics. The following occupations are the least likely to be replaced (in order of probability):

Nanny Fitness Coach Scientist Musician Lawyer Dentist Physiotherapist Architect Public Relations Psychology Teacher Hotel Manager 8.0% 7.5% 6.2% 4.5% 3.8% 3.5% 2.1%1.8%/.4% 0.7% 0.4%.