Against the background of the obvious slowdown of global economic growth, such as American economic slowdown and Japanese economic downturn, China's economic situation has maintained a good running trend. The quality of economic operation continued to improve, the GDP grew steadily, the dependence on external demand weakened, the market price was stable, the enterprise benefits were obvious, the balance of payments was good, the money supply increased appropriately, the domestic market sales were relatively active, the investment in fixed assets accelerated, and the income of urban and rural residents continued to increase. The overall indicators of the State Council's economic work this year can basically be implemented, and the role of the state's macro-control has become increasingly apparent, especially the economic benefits brought by the proactive fiscal policy have been significantly enhanced.

Economic trend in the second half of the year and prospect of economic development trend in the whole year

As the world economic growth continues to slow down, the uncertainties of China's economic operation will increase in the second half of the year, and the difficulty of economic growth will also increase. In the second half of the year, China's national economic growth rate is likely to slow down further, GDP growth rate may continue to decline compared with the first half of the year, and the annual economic growth may show a trend of "high before and low after". The economic trend in the second half of the year and the whole year may show the following trends:

-Investment in fixed assets will continue to grow rapidly. With the issuance of 50 billion yuan of government bonds in the second half of last year and 654.38+050 billion yuan of government bonds this year, as well as the continuous growth of foreign capital utilization, investment in fixed assets will continue to grow rapidly. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of social fixed assets investment will remain at around 10.5%.

-Domestic consumption will continue to grow steadily. With the gradual implementation of policies such as staff salaries and pensions for retirees in government agencies and institutions, and the gradual start of consumer credit policies such as housing, automobiles and tourism, domestic consumption will still maintain steady growth, and it is estimated that the growth rate of retail sales of social consumer goods will reach about 10% in the whole year.

-The growth rate of industrial production continued to decline. Affected by the weakening of external demand, the growth rate of industrial production will continue to fall in the second half of the year. It is estimated that the annual growth rate of industrial added value will reach more than 9%, and industrial profits will remain at last year's level.

-Agricultural production will be affected. Due to the drought in the north, the output of summer grain decreased and the grain planting area decreased, and the agricultural added value increased by about 2.5% in the whole year. At present, the reduction of summer grain production is a foregone conclusion, and the estimated output is 203.8 billion Jin, which is nearly 654.38 billion Jin lower than that of the previous year and about 4.6% lower than that of the previous year. The main reason for the reduction of summer grain production is the reduction of sowing area. According to preliminary statistics, the sown area of summer grain this year is 424 million mu, a decrease of more than 20 million mu or about 4.5% compared with the previous year.

-Export growth will continue to decline. As the economic downturn in the United States and Japan is difficult to change in the short term, the currencies of Southeast Asian countries have depreciated sharply, and the export growth rate of China will continue to decline. In the first half of the year, the export orders received by China decreased significantly compared with the same period of last year. It is estimated that the trade surplus for the whole year will be reduced by more than 5 billion US dollars compared with the previous year.

-fiscal expenditure will face greater pressure. Due to the weakening of external demand, the annual fiscal revenue growth will be "high before and low after". The growth rate of "two taxes" (value-added tax and consumption tax) has slowed down month by month. In February, the growth rate of "two taxes" was 42.5%, and it has dropped to 17.4% in May. Although it is estimated that the annual fiscal revenue will reach 654.38+56.5 billion yuan, up by about 6543.8+0.7% year-on-year, with an increase of 227 billion yuan, there are many incomparable objective factors in the total fiscal revenue. For example, starting from this year, the vehicle purchase will be changed from charging to taxation, which will increase the tax revenue by 23 billion yuan, and the reduction of shares of state-owned enterprises will be turned over to the social security fund to increase the income by 654.38+05 billion yuan. If these factors are deducted, according to the comparable caliber, it is estimated that the annual fiscal revenue growth will reach about 654.38+04%, and the year-on-year growth rate will drop by nearly 3 percentage points. At the same time, the central government's rigid fiscal expenditure will increase in the second half of the year. According to statistics, in the second half of the year, the subsidy for the closure and bankruptcy of state-owned enterprises will be increased by 654.38+04 billion yuan, the wages of employees will be adjusted by 654.38+06 billion yuan, the grain risk fund will be increased by 3 billion yuan, and the social security reform pilot area will be subsidized by 2 billion yuan, all of which will increase the pressure on fiscal expenditure in the second half of the year.

In short, judging from the economic trend in the second half of the year and the whole year, it is not easy to achieve the established economic growth goals. However, as long as the state adjusts relevant policies in time and further takes effective measures to expand domestic demand, some losses caused by weakening external demand will be compensated to some extent. If the world economy does not continue to slow down, the expected target of annual economic growth of 7% can be achieved.

Main problems existing in current economic operation

Although China's economic indicators in the first half of the year are generally in good condition, through hard work, the annual economic growth target will be achieved as scheduled. However, some deep-seated contradictions in China's economic development and the disorder of total social supply have not been fundamentally solved, and the internal motivation of economic development and demand growth is still insufficient. There are three main problems in the current economic operation:

1, the main driving force of economic growth is government behavior, and the internal driving force of market mechanism is insufficient.

Judging from the three factors that export, consumption and investment drive economic growth, the main factor of economic growth in the first half of this year is the government's investment in fixed assets, that is, it is mainly driven by the government's policy investment behavior, and there are fewer internal driving factors of the market mechanism. The concrete manifestation of the government's promotion of economic growth is that the proactive fiscal policy has maintained sufficient national debt funds to promote economic growth, and the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society in the first half of the year has increased by 15. 1 percentage point compared with the same period of last year. Among them: First, the implementation of discount measures for investment in national debt technological transformation has greatly increased the investment in the renovation and transformation of state-owned enterprises, with an increase of 26.9%, up 4 percentage points year-on-year; Second, deepen the reform of the housing distribution system and continue to stimulate the sustained and rapid growth of real estate investment. In the first half of the year, investment in real estate development increased by 28.2%, 5.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year; Third, investment in capital construction has increased substantially. In the first half of the year, the capital construction investment increased by 1 1.8 percentage points, 5.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year; At the same time, driven by the western development policy, the investment in the western region increased by 28.8% in the first half of the year, which was 10.5 and1/percentage points higher than that in the eastern and central regions respectively. On the one hand, these conditions show that the pattern of government-led investment growth has not fundamentally changed, on the other hand, it also reflects that economic growth relies too much on government policy investment and social investment is obviously insufficient. In the first half of the year, urban and rural collective and individual investment only increased by 7.5%, and the growth rate of investment dropped slightly compared with the same period of last year, which was lower than that of state-owned and other investments 10.4 percentage points. If economic growth is excessively dependent on government policy investment and divorced from the internal demand of market economy development, China's economic growth will be insufficient and it will be difficult to form a trend of high-quality sustained growth once the national debt investment declines and private investment fails to start in time.

2. The import and export of foreign trade slowed down, and the pulling effect of external demand on economic growth was obviously weakened.

Judging from China's current trade situation, the decline in export growth this year is a foregone conclusion, and the pulling effect of exports on economic growth has also been significantly weakened. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of China's foreign trade exports dropped by 29.5 percentage points compared with the same period of last year, and exports continued to fall in June. In the first quarter of this year, due to the slowdown in export growth, the contribution rate of net export increment to GDP growth has been -0.22. There are four main reasons for the decline in the growth rate of foreign trade exports: First, it is affected by the slowdown of the world economy. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of China's exports to major trading partners declined across the board. From the perspective of countries and regions, exports to Hong Kong, the United States, Japan, ASEAN and the European Union decreased by 34. 1, 24.4, 20.6, 43.6 and 29. 1 percentage point respectively compared with the same period of last year. Especially in May this year, the export growth to the United States, China's largest export market, was zero. Second, the enthusiasm of export enterprises has weakened. At present, China's comprehensive export tax rebate rate has reached 15%, and there is little room to further increase the export tax rebate rate. In addition, the country's tax rebate is insufficient and the tax rebate progress is slow, which leads to the problem of tight funds for export enterprises. At present, export enterprises have orders, no funds, and the export business can't operate normally. In May this year, the amount of export tax rebate handled by the whole country decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, among which the decreases in Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces reached 8 1.2%, 94.4% and 100% respectively, which seriously affected the export enthusiasm of enterprises. Third, the classification management method of processing trade is not perfect, and the deep processing carry-over policy is not clear, which has a great impact on the export of processing trade. From June to May, the export of processing trade only increased by 0.03%. At present, processing trade accounts for 54% of China's export trade, 90% of the increase in foreign exchange settlement and sale in China comes from foreign-invested enterprises, and 80% of foreign-invested enterprises are engaged in processing trade. Fourth, the export competitiveness of China's traditional products such as textiles, clothing, bags and shoes has declined. The main factor is the sharp depreciation of exchange rates in neighboring countries and regions such as Southeast Asia, Japan and South Korea. Compared with the same period of last year, the depreciation rate in June this year was mostly 15-30%, which made our traditional export products relatively inferior in the fierce international market competition. These problems will not only affect the export growth in the second half of this year, but also become a major bottleneck for China's export growth in the future.

3. The deflation situation has not changed much, and the contradiction of insufficient effective demand is still outstanding.

In the first half of this year, China's domestic demand grew steadily, but the main factors for the price increase in the domestic market were policy price adjustment and the national oil price increase, and the spontaneous role of market supply and demand was not obvious. At present, the vast majority of industrial products are still in oversupply and prices continue to fall. From June 5438 to May, the ex-factory price increase of industrial products dropped by 1. 1 percentage point compared with the same period of last year, and the purchase price increase of raw materials, fuel and power also dropped by 2.2 percentage points compared with the same period of last year. Some deep-seated contradictions in China's economic development and the disorder of total social supply have not been fundamentally solved. It is predicted that the market price increase of industrial consumer goods in China will not stop falling and rebound in the short term, and the situation of overcapacity of industrial consumer goods will not be fundamentally changed in the short term.

Judging from the consumption trend in the domestic market in the first half of the year, the relatively active consumer goods market is mainly due to policy factors. For example, the increase in wages of civil servants and enterprises and institutions has stimulated greater growth in consumption; The expansion of the pilot project of changing rural fees into taxes has eased the decline in the year-on-year growth rate of per capita net income of rural residents; The continuous increase of personal consumption credit such as housing, automobile and education has driven the growth of consumer goods market. From June 5438 to April this year, personal medium and long-term loans increased by 53.6 billion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 49.4% of the new medium and long-term loans of financial institutions. Because of these policy factors, the sustained growth of consumer goods market has been promoted, but the market driving force of domestic consumer goods market demand is still insufficient. If the incomparable factors of policies are excluded, the overall level of consumer prices will be negative. From June 5438 to May, the retail price of commodities dropped by 0.6%, and the prices of food, clothing, household equipment and supplies, services, transportation and communication continued to fall. Especially for products with large profit margins such as air conditioners and mobile phones, the price drop is more obvious due to fierce market competition. This trend shows that there is still a crisis of insufficient stamina in the market demand of social consumer goods.

The main factors that affect residents' consumption demand: First, the disposable income of urban households increased by 5.3% in the first half of the year, but the growth rate slowed down compared with the same period last year. Second, the consumption tendency of urban residents has not continued to rise. The performance is as follows: (1) The employment pressure in cities and towns has increased, and the number of laid-off workers has continued to increase due to structural adjustment. In the first half of the year, the number of employees on the job decreased by 5.062 million compared with the same period of last year, and the number of laid-off workers continued to increase. (2) The uncertainty brought by the reform of social security system makes residents' sense of security decline, which leads to the instability of residents' expected income. (3) Due to the increase of urban residents' expenditure on housing loans and education, the consumption potential of most urban residents has narrowed, and the savings deposits of urban and rural residents have declined. From March to May this year, the year-on-year growth rate of urban and rural residents' savings was from 1.5% to 0.7%, and then to 0.0%, showing a downward trend. Third, it is difficult for farmers to increase their income. Due to the country's insufficient development of the rural market, the purchase price of agricultural and sideline products continued to decline, and the purchase price of agricultural and sideline products declined for five consecutive years, with a cumulative decline of 25.7%, resulting in a decline in the net income of farmers engaged in agricultural production for three consecutive years, and a decline in the growth rate of rural per capita net income for five consecutive years. The reduction of summer grain production this year has further aggravated the difficulties for farmers to increase their income. These factors have seriously affected the expansion of consumption power of urban and rural residents. Therefore, insufficient effective demand is still an important factor restricting the current economic development.

Policies and measures to speed up economic development and improve the quality of economic operation

The slowdown of the world economy, especially that of the United States and Japan, has not only adversely affected China's economic development, but also brought rare opportunities to China. On the one hand, international capital is currently flowing to developing countries in large quantities. In the first half of the year, both foreign investment in China and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan's investment in the mainland showed a recovery growth trend, and foreign investment and actual investment in Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan increased by 20.5%. From June to May, 5438, the growth rate of Japanese investment was 40.3%, which was 22.4 1 percentage point higher than the national growth rate in the same period. The growth rate of Taiwan Province Province was 27.32%, which was 9.34 percentage points higher than the national growth rate in the same period. The growth rate of Hong Kong is 1 1. 1%. On the other hand, China has a large market demand and many opportunities. Since 1993, China's prices have steadily increased from negative growth to positive growth, and the situation has developed well. There will be no inflation in recent years. We should seize this opportunity, expand demand and intensify policy adjustment. Specific policy measures are as follows:

1. Further expand domestic demand and focus on expanding consumption. First of all, we should speed up the introduction of policies to encourage consumption, increase the role of consumer credit in promoting consumption growth, and cultivate new consumption growth points such as automobiles and tourism. Secondly, we should strengthen the adjustment of income distribution structure, especially the adjustment of national secondary distribution. Adjust the income of high-income groups through taxation and accelerate the increase of the income of low-income groups such as laid-off workers. Third, speed up the improvement of social security function, increase the expenditure of state finance on social security funds, establish special national debt for social security system, implement national overall planning of social security funds, and tilt towards poor areas and low-income groups through transfer payments, so that the limited social security funds in the country will have the greatest consumption growth effect.

2. Continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and adjust the investment structure. The state should adhere to the control of total investment, resolutely curb redundant construction, expand the role of national debt in stimulating demand, and increase the scope of use of national debt loan discount; At the same time, accelerate the adjustment of investment structure and the investment direction of financial funds (national debt), so as to shift the investment focus to eight aspects: namely, from infrastructure to industrial upgrading; From expanding investment to expanding consumption; Transfer from investment cities to investment in rural areas; Transfer from raising the income of national civil servants to raising the income of farmers; From reducing the burden of industry to reducing the burden of agriculture; From supporting large state-owned enterprises to supporting small and medium-sized enterprises; From direct government investment to cultivating market mechanism; Change from short-term investment effect to long-term investment effect.

3. Accelerate the reform of the investment and financing system. According to WTO rules, expand market access, develop capital market, expand direct financing, establish venture capital fund and create entrepreneur market as soon as possible; At the same time, we should vigorously start social investment, increase the pulling effect of social investment on economic growth, and introduce and implement tax policies to encourage social investment. Social investment funds invested in industries, projects and products encouraged by the state shall be fully exempted or reduced from enterprise and individual income tax. 4. Increase support for export enterprises and products to promote rapid export growth. It is necessary to further mobilize the enthusiasm of export enterprises, take strong short-term measures to stimulate export growth, especially implement special export encouragement policies for the export of traditional labor-intensive commodities with strong competitiveness, not only to increase the amount of export tax rebate, accelerate the progress of export tax rebate, but also to increase support for export credit.

5. Accelerate the process of agricultural industrialization and increase farmers' income. At present, the growth rate of farmers' income has been declining year after year, and the slow growth of rural consumption has become an important factor restricting China's economic growth. The main reason that restricts farmers' income growth is the sharp drop in agricultural product prices. Therefore, it is urgent to take effective measures to stabilize the prices of agricultural products and farmers' income. From foreign experience, almost all developed countries subsidize agricultural production or implement protective price policies for agricultural products to varying degrees; At present, the price of agricultural products in China is not protected, and the burden of taxes and fees on farmers is too heavy, which leads to the decline of farmers' income growth year after year. In order to change this situation, it is suggested that the state cancel the agricultural tax at an appropriate time to give farmers a chance to breathe and recuperate, or set up a price protection fund for agricultural and sideline products with all the income from agricultural tax to ensure the implementation of the purchase protection price of agricultural and sideline products and the steady growth of farmers' income engaged in agricultural production; At the same time, vigorously support leading enterprises in rural areas, promote rural related industries with leading enterprises, expand rural labor employment and increase farmers' income. According to statistics, the main factor of farmers' income growth in recent years comes from farmers' working income. Therefore, accelerating the process of agricultural industrialization and rural urbanization and increasing investment in rural infrastructure construction are the fundamental way out for farmers' income growth in the future.

6. Increase support for SMEs. At present, the working capital of small and medium-sized enterprises in China is extremely short, which seriously restricts their development. Therefore, the state should increase its support for small and medium-sized enterprises, further expand the floating range of loan interest rates for small and medium-sized enterprises, mobilize the enthusiasm of banks for loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, and meet the normal loan needs of small and medium-sized enterprises.