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Cai: Why don't I trust technocrats?
Text | Cai

There is a small detail in "East Wall Street". Playing by Joseph Chang, using the single-call team to push up the share price of a stock includes several steps: single-call team, touching porcelain, media, rumors and rumors. There is a small detail in this. I don't know if you're worried:

Hang Wei said to the trading team on the phone: "Wait a minute, can you stop rising so fast?" Make a head and shoulders first, and you should take care of those chartists. "

Chart school (technical school) is a group of people I looked up to when I first entered the securities market 10 years ago. Each of them can occupy two tables, 3~4 monitors for ordinary operators and 6~8 monitors for big coffee, and stack them up.

Take the corner of a temporary photography company as an example. They are not chartists. )

So I bought a lot of books and opened the software to learn and practice with real money. There is a bookshelf for technical analysis books at home. I have read about a dozen books, and some of them are almost obsolete.

At one time, I worked as a spot trader in an investment company. Because the frequency of spot trading is much higher than that of the stock market, I have tried almost all models and so-called chart morphology techniques these days. After careful re-examination and logical deduction, I finally completely abandoned the technical drawing.

If you study it carefully, you will know that when the chart is completed, you can find several reasons to buy for each "rising point" and several reasons to sell for each "falling point", so you think you will understand it next time.

But when the chart comes to your decision, you find that whether you want to buy or sell, you can find the basis to support your current decision in the books of different masters, so you are confused again.

Strangely, when I finished reading the chart, it was very clear-this is not a buying point, this is not a selling point, how could I be confused at that time?

This is why so many people still believe in chartists.

Why is this happening?

The reason is simple: all drawing techniques are backward.

That is to say, from the results, the position of that form is indeed the beginning of a rising or falling form written in the book, but when the second half of the chart is covered and you don't know how to go later, you will find that it can usually rise to a certain form and fall to another form, both of which are in the book, so you can see from the results that it is already a rising form. This is really a buying point, but when you really buy it, you will find that it is a buying point. How obvious.

This is true at every point in the stock market. You can find the chart reasons for the rise and fall.

All technical drawing experts are always divided into two categories, one is self-proclaimed experts, usually novices; The other is a recognized master, usually an actor.

For beginners, the ignorant are fearless. According to the probability, if 1000 people judge whether a stock is going up or down every day, there will always be several people who will impact 10 times in a row, regardless of whether the chart is used or not. Therefore, those who continuously hit 10 will certainly think that they are stock gods or are born with some special talents.

What's more, judging from the total number of shareholders, not to mention winning 10 times in a row, or even winning 20 times in a row, they are just idle, and there are many stock gods. Moreover, these people can get the same result even if they don't need charts, and the base is very large.

The difference is that the former gives people more confusion and always thinks it is due to their professional level. Although the latter may think that this coin will have some intangible connection with the stock market, it is generally sober.

All the above are novices, but the actors are different. They have long passed the period of illusion-dominated, and they know very well whether this thing is useful or not, but they are still willing to be actors, either collecting money to teach students or covering for some companies or projects-the role of hair stylist in "The Golden Hand" is like this-CCoin has a very good figure, and it is recommended to buy it. This is the responsibility of an actor.

Moreover, the company will cooperate with them and use a large number of traders to skillfully make a rising pattern, so that when the company finishes shipping and falls, the actors in front of the stage will not have much responsibility-at least they have really risen, and they are completely justified in the form of the book. Of course, the subsequent decline also has morphological reasons.

In this way, the fans of these actors will not run away and the actors can be reused.

The chart is not useless, but its function is almost negligible-when you make a decision to buy or sell, the chart can account for about110 as a reference factor. Note that all indicators in the chart can account for110, and each indicator can only be dialed 65438.

What do you say I have limited time? There are so many references, what do you think?

Time is limited. Don't gamble. What, the gambling threshold is too low? The threshold for gambling is low, but the threshold for winning money is high. This is a very professional matter, so we should respect the profession.

Then can I watch the news broadcast? Some people say that cattle people watch the news broadcast.

That's definitely not possible. It's no use reading it. You must be on the news broadcast.

There are still many ways to arbitrage. I'll just name a few, such as moving bricks. I moved bricks before and bought coins a long time ago. Because of the big difference between foreign countries and domestic countries, I can move bricks and deposit money in two exchanges. Of course, I can earn a few points every day, including the real-time exchange rate of the US dollar, the euro and the RMB, but that's because many people don't know Bitcoin, everyone knows it, and the difference is gone.

Another example is triangle arbitrage. A can be exchanged for B, B can be exchanged for C, C can be exchanged for A, and even hundreds of D \ E \ F \ G ... can be added. There is always a price difference when there are triangles and quadrangles ... multi-angle arbitrage, especially when you get a "free fee" or "low fee" account through negotiation or relationship, you will have a little more advantage than others.

It's just that the computing power of human resources hasn't reached such a fast level, so you can't find arbitrage opportunities in time. So you have to write a program to run, write an arbitrage program, automatically look for multi-angle spread opportunities, and automatically carry out trading arbitrage. The program won't get tired, and you can keep running. There will be a lot of profits from storing mosquito meat for 24 hours.

……

There is no chance in this world to make money by reading a book that everyone can read, taking a course that everyone can learn, and joining a group that everyone can join. You've seen it, so have others. The real opportunity to make money either has a high threshold to keep most people out, or there are cheating channels to keep most people in the dark.

Being close to these people is more reliable than trusting experts.