It's a pity that I'm not a recorder, so it's difficult to perfectly record the wonderful questions and answers in teacher Zhang's communication with his classmates. I just want to share some impressive gains and feelings:
In the course, "dispersion" was repeatedly mentioned, and in the activity, Teacher Zhang once again emphasized "everything is dispersed"! Father Buffett has the backing of insurance floating funds, and also has a certain mentality, which can withstand a temporary huge withdrawal or fluctuation. We ordinary people can't do it, and the most practical way is to "disperse". According to personal risk preference, equity, creditor's rights and money funds are allocated in a balanced way. Investing in families, one seeks stability and the other seeks radicalism; Employees who work in one company buy shares of rival companies, which is also a degree of risk diversification. If possible, it is best to increase overseas allocation, such as investing in Standard & Poor's 500 index funds, real estate trust funds REITEs, FTSE index in the UK, etc. I can't overemphasize the idea of "diversification" when I think that I once held the delusion of high risk and high return and invested a large proportion in stock funds.
Referring to Standard & Poor's 500, Mr. Zhang showed a painting. As a representative of the American market, nearly half of its constituent stocks (if I understand correctly) come from outside the United States. Investing in it is equivalent to investing in the world.
Another picture shown by the teacher compares the market income sources of some countries, among which the proportion of overseas income in the United States is the smallest, and the proportion of overseas income in Denmark, Ireland and Switzerland is the highest (obviously the land area is relatively small).
It can be seen that funds and markets cannot be simply named, but their real composition needs to be explored. The so-called small and medium-sized board in the A-share market is not necessarily a small and medium-sized board, nor is the small and medium-sized board in the Shanghai Stock Exchange. It's all because the name is easily misunderstood, so we should pay attention to screening.
The teacher's suggestion should pay attention to the macro, but you can't listen to the wind and rain and act impulsively. Policies will definitely have an impact on the stock market, but it is difficult for us to predict the extent and time of the impact.
Is investment technology or art? Can you learn well? Teacher Zhang's answer was wonderful, so he asked a rhetorical question: Is painting technology or art? We can learn the basic painting theories, principles and skills. The paintings we draw can be given away or even sold, but it takes talent and more efforts to achieve the master's achievements. It is difficult for us to become masters, but we must firmly believe that learning will definitely make us progress.
The market is unpredictable, is quantitative investment really useful? In the teacher's answer, the role of quantification is basically affirmed. Through quantitative analysis methods such as historical data backtesting and historical percentile estimation, some laws are found to guide practice. (Data source, Oriental Fortune, Wonder, Snowball, mentioned book "Steady Stock Market Return", magic formula)
Suggest ideas and methods, put forward assumptions, look for evidence, and then verify the assumptions through backtesting or practice; Establish a clear investment framework and constantly improve it. Don't always be careless and vague. You lose money and make money, and you don't even know what's going on. The most terrible thing is that you don't grow up (I'm a little sweaty when I hear this! )
Teacher Zhang showed some pictures:
A picture, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, has achieved positive returns in 29 of the 39 years, with an average annualized rate of 8.4% in 39 years, but the average annual decline is as high as 13.9%.
A picture,1999 From July to March, 2000, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway lost sharply to Nasdaq 100.
The two pictures show the difference between A shares and US stocks in different periods, with A shares being higher and US stocks being higher.
The other picture shows the alternate rotation of the American market and the international market, one after another.
These pictures show us that the stock market is like a pendulum, fluctuating up and down. Even if the long-term return is good, the process is tortuous, and there are not many days when the return is good. When the market is crazy, Buffett needs to endure the downturn of the company's performance and bear the public opinion judgment that "Lian Po is old". In that case, it is not easy to remain calm and firm and bear the pressure. The mentality in investment is crucial and the most difficult to cultivate.
Teacher Zhang shared his investment banking experience and explained how the IPO price of enterprises came from and the difficulty of enterprise valuation. Therefore, his suggestion is that it is best to wait until the stock price falls by 30~50%, and look at the examples of Xiaomi and Weilai Automobile. Remember, if you buy a good one, you should also buy a good one. A good company is not equal to a good stock. (The situation that A shares almost guarantee new profits needs to be another matter. )
Index funds are supported by the national economy. As long as the market still exists, even if it is ups and downs, it is unlikely to disappear, but the company is likely to die. It is too difficult for companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 or Nasdaq to have a lasting foundation every few years. Ordinary people invest in companies rather than investment funds, unless they really know the invested companies. For example, an old stockholder only invests in a company for 20 years and earns 20 times, provided that only a small amount of funds can resist the fluctuations in the middle.
In the end, you have to answer similar questions yourself. 1. Do you know anything about this industry? 2. How will the company operate in the future? 3. Do you have the ability to evaluate? 4. Do you trust the boss of the company? Others are just sources of information, not sources of decision-making. We should develop our own logic and understand it ourselves. Otherwise, even if the buying advice is correct, you may not be able to hold it yourself.
The teacher gave several figures, Buffett's annualized average is about 20%, the leverage is about 13%, the bridge crossing level is about 1 1 ~ 12%, and Svencen's average is about 13%. From this perspective, ordinary people can reach 10%.
No single index can be directly used for decision-making, which requires a lot of comprehensive judgment; The downward signal of the technical curve may be more accurate than the upward signal, which can be used to manage risks.
Finally, from Xue Zhaofeng's economics, Xiang Shuai's finance, Lu Rong's behavioral finance, and Zhang Xiaoyu's personal investment course, I feel that I have really learned the way of a national teacher, learned the irrational understanding of human beings from the assumption of rational people, and learned concrete and feasible practical learning from the study of theories and concepts.
Investment is a long-term thing, which requires continuous learning. Most of the students and teachers who participated in the activities were very young, which made me envy and admire them for having such good opportunities for study and practice, and also admired the depth and breadth of their thinking, which also inspired me to study harder.
Thank you very much for this lecture!