How to understand the "breaking net tide" Bao Xiaohui, chairman of Changli Asset Management Co., Ltd., analyzed three problems, namely, why the wealth management products of banks are "broken", how small and medium-sized banks should deal with the "breaking" of wealth management products, and how small and medium-sized banks can better operate wealth management products, which provides an optimized path for small and medium-sized banks to operate wealth management products.
Recently, the income of fixed-income wealth management fluctuates greatly, and the phenomenon of "breaking the net" occurs frequently. According to relevant data, as of June 165438+ 10/8, there were more than 2,000 products with cumulative unit net worth less than 1 yuan.
The wave of breaking the net even extended to the bank wealth management that investors have been optimistic about in the past, especially the net value of fixed income wealth management of some small and medium-sized banks fell below 1, which made many investors feel uneasy.
Why do fixed-income products break the net? How to treat it? The sharp withdrawal of fixed-income financial management is a coincidence or a normal state. Can I buy it in the future? How should small and medium-sized banks deal with the tide of network disconnection? To understand these problems, we must understand the mechanism behind the net loss of fixed-income products and find countermeasures.
Why are bank wealth management products "disconnected"?
The premise of "breaking the net":
"buyer's conceit" in the net worth era
Since the publication of 20 17, 1 1 new regulations for asset management, the net management of fixed-income wealth management products has become the general trend with the core concept of "breaking rigid exchange, standardizing fund pool, removing multi-layer nesting and net management". Since then, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has issued the Measures for the Supervision and Management of Financial Management of Commercial Banks (Draft for Comment), which indicates that China's asset management industry represented by bank financial management has entered a new era, and bank financial management has begun to return to the essence of asset management.
For ordinary investors, "net worth" seems to just adjust the presentation form of income, from the previous expected rate of return to a net worth figure. But in fact, behind the net worth is a whole set of changes in supervision and product operation methods.
The new asset management regulations require that wealth management products should not promise to protect capital and income, encourage the use of market value method to measure, and strictly limit the use of "cost valuation method". When measured by amortized cost method, the deviation shall not exceed 5%. At the same time, wealth management products may not transfer the principal, income and risk between different products through rolling issuance. This means that the foundation of "drought and flood protection" in the past no longer exists.
The wealth management products managed by net worth belong to non-guaranteed floating income products. The net value of products fluctuates with the market price of investment assets, and investors cannot predict the actual rate of return, so they are responsible for their financial gains and losses, which highlights the essence of asset management of "the seller is responsible and the buyer is responsible".
So from the actual situation, today's "fixed income products" seem to have fallen behind in naming. Before the introduction of the new asset management regulations, most bank wealth management products were mainly investment bonds, which were managed by asset pools and retained the characteristics of rigid redemption, so they were called "fixed income products". "Fixed income products" also include financing trusts with rigid redemption characteristics issued by city investment or enterprises.
But now, after several years of transformation pains, bank wealth management products have basically become net worth products. According to the data of China Banking Financial Market Annual Report (202 1), by the end of 20021,the balance of net worth wealth management products was 26.96 trillion yuan, accounting for 92.97% of the existing wealth management products. In this case, although the investment target is still mainly bonds, the "fixed income" products of banks have experienced net value fluctuations and real risks according to the market and investment target.
The main reasons for "disconnection":
The bond market fluctuates greatly.
Net product value means that the income of the basic assets will be reflected in the income of wealth management products in real time according to fair value. Once the price of basic assets is adjusted, the income of wealth management products will fluctuate. The core reason for the net withdrawal of this round of wealth management products lies in the large-scale withdrawal of the bond market. By 2022 165438+ 10/5, the yield to maturity of 1 year treasury bonds will rise from 1 1.73 at the beginning of October to 2.20,/.
The bond market fluctuates greatly, mainly because of the funding. On the whole, before 2022 10, the market will cut interest rates strongly and the market funds will be abundant. In addition, macroeconomic fluctuations, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and interest rate reduction, the Russian-Ukrainian war and the frequent news of "thunderstorm" in a large number of domestic housing enterprises, have made investors tend to be defensive, and some funds have flowed to bond assets to hedge, making the bond market interest rate low and the price rising.
However, in the month of 1 1, the market funds have converged and the market's expectations for economic growth have increased. On the one hand, the epidemic prevention and control policies have been continuously optimized, and market confidence has been renewed; On the other hand, a number of measures to support the real estate industry have been introduced, and the market's confidence in the real estate industry has rebounded. Under the superposition of various factors, bond prices have fallen sharply.
This downward trend has affected interbank deposit certificates, secondary capital bonds of commercial banks, perpetual bonds of commercial banks and other varieties, which in turn has led to a correction in the net value of debt base and bank wealth management products.
However, it should be pointed out that the characteristics of bond products determine that the overall fixed-income financial management is relatively safe, and temporary net value fluctuations will be diluted over time.
After no longer "ensuring the harvest through drought and flood"
As mentioned above, under the background of overall net worth transformation, the fluctuation of product net worth will become the norm. This is undoubtedly a challenge for traditional bank financing, especially for the majority of small and medium-sized banks whose reputation is not better than that of state-owned banks.
At present, small and medium-sized banks generally have the problem of net worth transformation. Compared with big banks, the net-worth transformation of small and medium-sized banks is relatively more difficult because of qualifications, scale and talents, which will greatly reduce their living space.
For banks with low net worth, the supply of low-risk and relatively high-yield net worth wealth management products will be insufficient, making it difficult to attract investors' funds. At present, capital-guaranteed wealth management has gradually withdrawn from the market, structured deposits are also decreasing, and the number of low-risk wealth management products with relatively high returns in the market has dropped sharply. However, investors still retain the impression of fixed income products in the past, and the demand for low-risk wealth management products is large, which leads to the imbalance between supply and demand of low-risk wealth management products.
Although traditional products such as bank certificates of deposit can meet the needs of original investors in the market to a certain extent, the product characteristics of certificates of deposit determine that the rate of return cannot be compared with the wealth management products and structured deposits that customers used to before.
At the same time, in the absence of high-quality net worth wealth management products, the investment scope of capital business of small and medium-sized banks will be severely limited. Affected by many factors such as the scale of qualifications, small and medium-sized banks cannot obtain high returns through a variety of wealth management products that are common in the era of new asset management regulations, and the previous high-interest model is bound to be unsustainable. If investors cannot be attracted by net-worth wealth management products, the investment scope of capital business of small and medium-sized banks can only be based on security, which is basically limited to low-risk assets, such as interest rate bonds, interbank deposit certificates and interbank deposits.
Therefore, although the transformation is not easy, net worth is a necessary step for small and medium-sized banks. From practice, we can see that the success of the net-worth transformation has positive value for the profitability of banks. Those banks that took the lead in completing the net-worth transformation have significantly improved their revenue and net profit. In the context of the tightening of spreads, instead of choosing to shrink the front line, small and medium-sized banks rely on large deposit certificates to make a living and wait for "chronic death", they might as well take advantage of the situation, face difficulties and take the initiative to attack.
On the one hand, small and medium-sized banks should improve their capital investment and research capabilities, strengthen the development of low-risk, high-yield net worth wealth management products, strengthen the research and development capabilities of on-balance-sheet debt products, improve the control level of derivatives price fluctuations, do a good job in risk control and reduce operational risks; On the other hand, banks should act quickly, build their own professional fund management team, focus on research and development of net worth wealth management products that can meet the needs of low-risk preference customers, and further enrich capital preservation and liability protection tools, such as allocating funds to assets with small net worth fluctuations such as high-grade credit bonds, money market instruments and short-term interest rate bonds.