Deflation refers to the continuous decline in prices, wages, interest rates, food and energy due to overcapacity or insufficient demand. When the currency in circulation in the market decreases, people's monetary income and purchasing power decrease, which will affect the price decline and lead to deflation. Long-term monetary tightening will inhibit investment and production, leading to increased unemployment and economic recession. In addition, some economists agree with this indicator: when the consumer price index (CPI) is negative continuously, it means that deflation has occurred.

Deflation is not terrible!

The assets of ordinary people are preserved, and enterprises are prepared for a rainy day.

Generally speaking, the biggest harm of deflation is the economic downturn, and people are afraid to spend money on consumption and investment. So what should ordinary people do if deflation comes? A financial reporter interviewed scholars, entrepreneurs and ordinary people, and listened to their popular interpretation of deflation, countermeasures and the "deflation memory" of that year, so as to provide reference for readers.

Scholar: Money is more valuable, but I dare not spend it. Banking and entrepreneurship are the first choices.

Tian Boping, director of the Institute of World Economics of Jiangsu Academy of Social Sciences, said that if deflation really happens, CPI will become negative. In this way, people's thinking will change from now on-under inflation, no matter how high the interest rate of bank deposits is, if CPI remains high, deposits may turn into negative interest rates. Under deflation, the interest rate of bank deposits is lower, and if CPI is negative, deposits are still increasing.

In short, people think that "money is worthless" under inflation; Deflation, on the other hand, "money is more valuable". However, because deflation is accompanied by economic downturn, people's income may also decrease, so people will be more afraid to spend money on consumption and investment. In this case, the most important thing is to ensure the safety of existing assets, and the first is to preserve the value. I didn't want to appreciate in the first place.

"Frankly speaking, if deflation really comes, the economy will go down and there will be no eggs under the nest?" Therefore, he stressed that in the case of deflation, investors should first choose safe hedging in concept. Personally, he thought that the best way to manage money at that time might be to start a business and invest in yourself. Moreover, bank financing is relatively safe.

Entrepreneur: To go up, we must think about going down, transforming early, and coping with the "cold winter"

Chen Yong, the chairman of Yongyin Cultural and Creative Industry Development Co., Ltd., is one of the earliest people engaged in coin collection and management in Nanjing. He introduced that he started from 1996, perhaps because at the beginning of his business, everything started from scratch and he was full of enthusiasm. At that time, there were only 50 people in the team, so he didn't feel deeply about the deflationary impact of 1997-2003. But for the current economic downturn, as the leader of a 500-person company, he deeply feels that he is already in the "cold winter".

"The impact this time is all-round, more serious than any time, and more serious than in 2008." He introduced that 2008 coincided with the Beijing Olympic Games, when the coin collection was still relatively hot. Although there was a crisis in the external market, it did not affect them. Since February this year, he feels that the "three legs" of the coin business of "gift consumption, investment and collection" are just "one leg" of consumption. "Gold fell, silver fell, and collectibles fell." He sighed, "The company regards these as creative elements. If this situation continues, it will be affected in the second half of the year. " He introduced that it is obvious that the number of investors who invest in and collect gold and silver coins and banknotes is decreasing. Some small companies in the industry are also shrinking, comprehensively adjusting and even closing down. "Winter is coming." He said.

Their company's response was to prepare for a rainy day from June 65438+ 10 last year and turn the company's business direction to cultural creativity. "If you only focus on collectibles, the road will be very narrow." He introduced that due to the early deployment, the company's sales situation is not bad at present. "The scale of 500 people will be 7 million in January. How long can the company live without making money? " He introduced that if it is purely positioned as a collectible operator, if consumers are gone, then it is difficult for enterprises to persist for too long. He recalled that the collectible market has experienced an increase in the past 10 years, and enterprises should be prepared to deal with the decline when it rises.

"It is hard to say that there will be no deflation in the future, but the economic downturn is visible." However, he still believes that there will be opportunities even when the economy is in recession. Unless it is too bad, they will take two measures: one is to stop the pace of expansion; Second, lose weight for the winter. As long as it is not such a bad situation, then enterprises will still move forward at their own pace. "The more this time, the more can't stop. No passive defense. Innovation in channels, product lines and business models. "

Ordinary people: buying a house under deflation earns more than twice.

Ms. Han, who now holds a leading position in a large enterprise in Nanjing, said yesterday that in the late 1990s, the price level was much lower than it is now, and money was very valuable. Everyone's desire for consumption is not very strong, and few people buy luxury goods. "I remember that fewer people go out to eat now than now, unless there are foreign guests at home, or relatives and friends celebrate their birthdays."

However, compared with the average person, her vision is still a little ahead. She introduced that she was already in the middle of the enterprise, with high income and rising career, so she didn't have much fear of the future. /kloc-around 0/996, her son went to primary school, and she borrowed money to buy a house in downtown Xinjiekou. "At that time, there was no bank loan, and few people bought their own houses." She remembers that the house price was 3500 yuan/square meter at that time, and this price has not risen for a long time. "At that time, there was a saying of housing distribution, but the house I was assigned was too far away, and it was really inconvenient for children to go to school." She recalled that she was still not understood by many people because she borrowed money to buy a house. However, due to the high income and some money from the demolition of the old house, she quickly paid off the loan. Unexpectedly, it was such an "unintentional" that she earned more than twice when she sold the house in 2006.

She recalled that during the deflation period of 1997 -2003, everyone's financial awareness was very weak, and people like her were completely unintentional. Most people are reluctant to spend and invest, and the reason why she is confident lies in her better career development and higher income. "In the final analysis, the more she dares to spend money, the more she will invest in herself."

@ Weibo talks about deflation

Recently, netizens who are interested in or engaged in the investment industry in Weibo are also talking about "deflation". The reporter combed their views.

Explorer:

Will deflation bring about monetary expansion and real estate market?

@ly domain: Whether deflation occurs depends on whether the cycle of rapid monetary expansion ends. Monetary policy can hold the running cow, but the cow doesn't want to go forward. If you loosen the reins, you can't run any more.

@ China China: Generally speaking, there will be deflation risk in China's economy in the future, especially if the real estate market collapses like a river, and the deflation risk will increase sharply.

Analysis school:

If deflation, losing less than others is victory.

@ Feng Yun Frank (General Manager of Shenyang Dingxuan Investment Management Service Co., Ltd.): "From stagflation to deflation, it is estimated that many people can't accept this change ... Ordinary people just want to protect themselves, and losing less than others is victory".

@ 丫丫丫丫丫丫: Deflation is more terrible than inflation. As a result, the overall economy declines, the demand for commodities decreases, corporate profits decrease, wages and benefits decrease, and then the unemployment rate rises. This series of reactions can easily make the social economy lack the motivation to move forward and then fall into the quagmire of depression.

Optimist:

Adjustment and correction, deflation is not necessarily a bad thing.

@sp: The news said that CPI rose by 2.2% and hit a new low. Prior to this, the central bank lowered the deposit and loan interest rate by 25 basis points again, which shows that China's economy has gradually turned from inflation to deflation. I think this is a normal phenomenon, because the credit expansion in the early stage made the currency over-issued, prices rose, and blind investment formed non-performing loans, which is not normal. So the current decline is a process of adjustment and correction, so deflation is not necessarily a bad thing.