In this year, the policies of "three red lines" and "centralized land supply" of real estate enterprises were formally implemented at the beginning of 20021,and the real estate industry also ushered in major changes-the past model of high leverage, high turnover and high return no longer exists.
This year, with the intensive introduction of national control policies, the sales of the real estate industry also showed a trend of "high before and low after". According to the statistics of Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, the number of national real estate control policies continued to be high in June 5438+065438+ 10, reaching 56 times in a single month, and the cumulative number of real estate control policies reached 586 times during the year.
Looking forward to the future, many insiders said in an interview with the Securities Times reporter that "stability" is the main tone of the property market next year, and the direction of various regulatory policies at the end of the year is to stabilize the property market, which also represents the bottom of the policy. On the other hand, the policy is expected to focus on the "three stable" tasks, because of the city's policy, both supply and demand; At the same time, moderately accelerate the development of the long-term rental market and promote the construction of affordable housing.
Policy bottom appearance
At the beginning of 20021,policies related to financing and land acquisition of real estate enterprises were introduced one after another, including the "three red lines" regulation and control new policy that attracted much attention from the market.
In fact, as early as August 20th last year, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the People's Bank of China made it clear that 12 detailed rules for fund monitoring and financing management of key housing enterprises would be piloted on September 1 day of that year, which is the "three red lines" policy for housing enterprises financing in the industry, and it was officially implemented from the beginning of this year.
Since the implementation of the three red line policies, housing enterprises have generally accelerated the process of reducing interest-bearing liabilities, especially leading housing enterprises.
According to the statistics of Haitong Securities, in the first half of 20021,the leverage ratio of some leading real estate enterprises decreased. By the end of the first half of 20021,except Greenland Holdings, First Venture Holdings, Fahua Holdings, Financial Street, Guangming Real Estate and Lushangye, some leading A-share listed companies had three red lines (the asset-liability ratio excluding advance receipts was less than 70%; The net debt ratio is less than100%; The short-term cash debt ratio is greater than 1).
In February, a document on the classification and regulation of residential land issued by the Ministry of Natural Resources flowed out, which required that residential land in key cities should be "two centralized": the announcement of transfer should be issued centrally, and the announcement of 202 1 residential land should not exceed three times; Centralized organization of transfer activities. Among them, key cities include 4 first-tier cities and 18 second-tier cities.
The centralized land supply policy has changed the pace of land acquisition by real estate enterprises, which is also regarded as one of the biggest changes in the real estate market in 2002/kloc-0.
"After the 202 1 land market operated at a high level in the first half of the year, the overall land market began to show obvious signs of downward adjustment in the second half of the year. As the real estate market cools down, the pressure on the capital chain of real estate enterprises is increasing, and the enthusiasm of land acquisition enterprises is getting lower and lower. " Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told the Securities Times that centralized land supply changed the original development rhythm of housing enterprises. With the changes in the real estate market, it is expected that the centralized land supply policy will continue to be adjusted in 2022.
According to the data of Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, as of June 1 1, 100, the annual land transaction amount was 4.05 trillion, down 7.4% compared with the same period in 2020. According to the data of land market, the continuous decrease of heat has become a trend, especially in 20265433.
Since then, various policies such as price limit, sales restriction and purchase restriction have been intensively introduced, and the signal of regulation and overweight in the real estate industry has been continuously released. According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, from 202 1 to 1 to August, the cumulative number of real estate regulation and control exceeded 400 times, setting a new historical record.
It is worth noting that since September, the real estate policy has gradually warmed up and become industry knowledge.
At the end of September, the central bank proposed to maintain the healthy development of the real estate market at the regular meeting in the third quarter. On June 5438+ 10, some cities such as Harbin introduced relevant policies to stabilize the real estate market. 65438+February, the high-level meeting proposed "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers", and for the first time proposed to promote the "virtuous circle" of the real estate industry.
In Zhang Dawei's view, preventing the property market from being lowered too fast is expected to become a future policy trend, and "stability" is the most certain key word for the property market next year. "In the past two years, the regulation of the property market has become more and more strict. On the one hand, it is the price limit order for new and second-hand houses in hot cities, and on the other hand, it is the price limit order for new houses in many cities across the country. The sharp rise in housing prices will amplify financial risks, while the cliff-like decline in housing prices is also unstable and will also affect the financial system. At the end of the year, various controls began to stabilize the property market, and housing subsidies in more than 20 cities across the country represented the bottom of the policy. "
Zhou, a macro analyst in the financial market department of China Everbright Bank, also told reporters that real estate regulation and control is the first step, and all localities have implemented the "three stability" task because of the city's policy. "We can't let house prices rise irrationally, and housing enterprises add leverage in disorder. At the same time, you can't let the real estate be too cold. Both overheating and supercooling in the real estate market are harmful. " Looking ahead, the policy will still focus on the task of "three stabilities". Due to the city's policy, the supply and demand sides work hard to pre-adjust and fine-tune the control policies according to the supply and demand situation of the specific real estate market in the region; At the same time, moderately accelerate the development of the long-term rental market and promote the construction of affordable housing.
"It is expected that under the general tone of' housing and not speculation', the support of short-term credit policies for the first and improved housing needs will continue to expand, and local governments will respond to the requirements of the central government and take targeted measures to solve the problem of poor real estate-related chains. In addition to increasing subsidies for home purchases, policies such as lowering loan interest rates and lowering some transaction taxes also have fine-tuning expectations. " Chen Wenjing, deputy director of the Index Department of the Central Finger Hospital, told the reporter.
Risk events are expected to decrease.
In the context of the continuous tightening of the financing environment of housing enterprises this year, many well-known private housing enterprises defaulted on their debts in the second half of the year.
In July of 20021year, Blu-ray Development announced that some debts could not be repaid as scheduled; In August, Sunshine 100 also indicated that it failed to pay the due convertible bonds. In September, the news that Evergrande Group stopped paying for wealth management triggered Evergrande's own liquidity crisis, and also predicted the possible debt risks of other housing enterprises in the future to some extent.
From 10, difficulties in paying dollar debts have appeared, including Fantasia Year, Contemporary Real Estate and Sony Holdings, which has also led to a sharp decline in dollar debts of real estate.
According to the statistics of Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, since June 5438+00, the dollar debts of Greenland Holdings, Sunshine City, Caesar, Agile, Greentown China, Hesheng Chuangzhan, Xincheng Development, Yuzhou Group and many other real estates have fallen sharply. The dollar debt of China real estate generally decreased by nearly 20%. Among them, bonds due at 202 1 were the hardest hit, followed by bonds due at 2022, and bonds due at 2023, 2024 and 2025 declined relatively gently.
"The core reason behind it is real estate regulation. In particular, the three red lines have inhibited the financing channels of housing enterprises, and the tightening of sales has made it difficult for enterprises to pay back money. The double tightening of development loans and mortgages has greatly reduced the solvency of housing enterprises. " Zhang Dawei told reporters.
It is worth noting that many housing enterprises are also actively saving themselves through slimming and financing, and the risk events of housing enterprises are expected to be reduced to become a kind of knowledge in the industry.
Liu Shui, research director of the Enterprise Division of the Central Reference Institute, told the reporter that with the industry's emphasis on liquidity risk, some endangered housing enterprises began to take active measures to replenish funds by selling assets, borrowing from shareholders and issuing additional shares, which played a positive role in alleviating the short-term debt pressure. "At present, financing-related policies have basically bottomed out. Ensuring normal financing and policy rectification has become the main direction of supervision, and the reasonable financing needs of housing enterprises are being met. Therefore, on the whole, the risk events of housing enterprises will gradually decrease in the future. "
Housing enterprises actively seek change.
It is worth noting that this year's real estate market sales show a trend of "high before and low after", which has also received great attention from the industry.
According to the latest data of June 5438+February 15 released by the National Bureau of Statistics, 2021~1,the sales area of commercial housing15.8 billion square meters, up by 4.8% and 20 19. Sales: 202 1 to1,commercial housing sales 16.2 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, compared with 201~/kloc.
However, in a single month, the sales situation in the real estate market has been in a downward trend for several months.
According to the data of the Central Reference Institute, the market of 5438+0 1 was still in the adjustment stage in June. Affected by the high base in the same period of last year, the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing in China decreased by 14.0% and 16.3% respectively, and maintained a double-digit decline for four consecutive months. However, due to the marginal improvement of the credit environment and other factors, the decline was narrowed by 7.7 and 6.3 respectively compared with last month.
"Affected by factors such as pre-regulation and tight bank mortgage quotas, the adjustment pressure of the real estate market increased in the second half of the year, and the overall market cooled down. Individual housing enterprises default, and buyers' wait-and-see mood rises, further dragging down market activity, and the sales area and sales volume of housing enterprises decline. "
In Chen Wenjing's view, in the first half of the year, housing enterprises increased their marketing efforts, and the sales area reached the highest level in the same period in history, and the overall performance exceeded expectations. In the third quarter, the market cooled significantly, and the sales area of commercial housing decreased year-on-year.
Judging from the short-term market trend, the sales of housing enterprises have declined, and the short-term debt repayment pressure has increased. In this context, many real estate enterprises have chosen to increase revenue and reduce expenditure.
Take Vanke as an example. On June 5438+065438+1October1July, Vanke proposed to change the inertia thinking mode of the golden age, run the business philosophy throughout, subtract actions and expenses that do not produce value, and spend small money to do big things.
Zhang Dawei believes that apart from increasing revenue and reducing expenditure, maintaining liquidity and earning small money with peace of mind, real estate developers should change their thinking and focus on polishing product quality. "The next step is the reshuffle of housing enterprises. Whoever has better quality will attract more users and get a slice of the shrinking real estate market. Only by clearly understanding the situation and accelerating the transformation will we have the opportunity to survive the cold winter of the industry and win tickets for the second half of the competition. "
On the other hand, the transformation of housing enterprises is often mentioned this year, but the industry suggests making a decision before moving. Liu Shui believes that the overall profit rate of the real estate industry continues to decline. In this context, housing enterprises should not be blind. After all, there is a threshold and capital investment in cross-fields, and it cannot be transformed for the sake of transformation. Therefore, enterprises should carefully adjust their development strategies according to their own actual conditions and development needs.