Following the first mention of the concept of "shrinking cities" in the official document of the National Development and Reform Commission in April last year, recently, the Key Tasks of New Urbanization Construction and Urban-Rural Integration Development in 2020 (hereinafter referred to as the "Task") issued by the National Development and Reform Commission once again mentioned that shrinking cities should be slimming and healthy.
"In the future, there will definitely be more and more shrinking cities in China." Ding, an associate professor in the Department of Economics of Xiamen University, told the First Financial Reporter that in the future, the population of China will gather in the 19 urban agglomeration, and many towns, counties and even prefecture-level cities far away from the 19 urban agglomeration may shrink.
According to the 13th Five-Year Plan, this 19 urban agglomeration includes: upgrading urban agglomerations in the eastern region, building world-class urban agglomerations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta, and improving the open competition level of urban agglomerations in Shandong Peninsula and the west coast of Taiwan Strait. Cultivate urban agglomerations in the central and western regions, develop and expand urban agglomerations in Northeast China, the Central Plains, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Chengdu-Chongqing and Guanzhong, and plan and guide the development of urban agglomerations in Beibu Gulf, Jinzhong, Hu Bao-Hubei-Henan, central Guizhou, central Yunnan, Lanzhou-Xining, Ningxia along the Yellow River and the northern slope of Tianshan Mountain, so as to form more growth poles to support regional development. (Among them, the northeast urban agglomeration is divided into Harbin-Changzhou urban agglomeration and central and southern Liaoning urban agglomeration).
Dozens of cities in Northeast China are shrinking.
In the world, urban contraction is generally defined as the phenomenon that densely populated urban areas with a population of more than 1 10,000 face population loss for more than two years and experience structural economic crisis.
At present, the urban shrinkage in China mainly occurs in the northeast and northwest regions, with the northeast region being the most typical.
Among them, compared with the total population of the city, the permanent population of the city can better reflect the population change of the city. According to the statistical yearbook of urban construction published by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development over the years, the First Financial Reporter made statistics on the changes of urban resident population in 86 cities in Northeast China from 2008 to 20 18 (during this period, some county-level cities were abolished and districts were established in some places, but these cities were not included in the statistics). During the period of 10, the resident population of 37 cities in three northeastern provinces decreased, accounting for statistical data. Among them, Hegang, Zhaodong, Jixi, Gongzhuling, Longjing, Anshan, Fushun, Haicheng and Benxi have decreased significantly.
Due to the downward trend of energy economy since 20 13, the northeast economy has slowed down and the population has flowed out. If we compare the population data of the five years from 20 13 to 20 18, it is even more obvious: in the past five years, there are 54 cities with reduced urban resident population, accounting for 63% of the statistical cities.
A considerable number of shrinking cities in Northeast China are resource-exhausted cities, such as Qitaihe, Yichun, Hegang and Shuangyashan. In addition, the industrialization and urbanization in Northeast China are earlier, the implementation of family planning is stricter, the birth rate is lower and the degree of aging is higher. In addition, in recent years, the energy economy has declined, the economic growth rate has slowed down and the population has further flowed out. These factors have accelerated the contraction of many small and medium-sized cities.
At the same time, in some areas of economically developed provinces, there has also been a contraction. Taking Guangdong, the largest economic province, as an example, Dr. Du Zhiwei from Guangzhou Institute of Geography and his colleagues found that from 2000 to 20 16, the size of permanent residents in most parts of Guangdong Province (accounting for 73. 17%) increased, and the population size in eight places (accounting for 6.5 1%) was negative.
This phenomenon will be more and more in the future, especially with the urbanization rate of permanent residents in China exceeding 60% last year, the urbanization of China will gradually enter the second half and the second urbanization stage. Compared with the first urbanization process, the second urbanization is the flow between cities and from small and medium-sized cities to central cities and metropolises.
It is still prudent to lose weight and strengthen the body.
Faced with the shrinking situation of many small and medium-sized cities, the Task proposes to "steadily reduce the municipal districts of shrinking cities and carefully study and adjust shrinking counties (cities)". In other words, some shrinking cities will merge with municipal districts in the future to slim down and keep fit.
At present, although some shrinking cities have a small population, their municipal districts are not small. Take Hegang, where the "cabbage price" broke out last year, as an example. At the end of 2065438+2007, the total population of the city was10.09 million. Hegang, as a prefecture-level city, has jurisdiction over six districts and two counties. The average population in the first district is about100000, which is far less than that in many towns along the southeast coast.
Niu Fengrui, a researcher at the Center for Urban Development and Environment Research of China Academy of Social Sciences, told the First Financial Reporter that the shrinking cities in the process of urban development are an objective phenomenon. There are both growing cities and shrinking or even disappearing cities. Population changes, many branches occupy administrative resources, costs can not be reduced, but the population they serve is getting less and less. Therefore, the adjustment of division of labor can improve the efficiency of resource allocation.
Niu Fengrui said that in the past few decades, our urbanization has been done in accordance with expansion, because urbanization is still in an accelerated period. However, China has a large area and its development varies from place to place. In the process of optimizing spatial allocation, the absolute population density in some places will inevitably decrease. In addition to zoning adjustment, it is more important to optimize the spatial distribution of population.
He also said that although it is difficult to reduce the division due to various factors, as time goes by, there are fewer and fewer locals, and it is natural to adjust administrative divisions and cancel administrative institutions.
Yao Chen, vice-president and secretary-general of China Regional Economics Association, told China Business News that whether to reduce urban development space and administrative divisions should be classified to judge the reasons for a city's weakness. "In some shrinking cities, the population is flowing out and the economic development is not good, but this may be a short-term phenomenon, not necessarily a long-term trend. For example, because of the overcapacity, investment reduction, employment reduction and population outflow caused by the economic structure, we can not only reduce the space of the city, but also restore the vitality of urban development as much as possible through measures such as structural adjustment, optimizing the environment and attracting factors. "
Yao Chen analyzed that in terms of administrative divisions, what needs to be reduced are some unreasonable divisions. The so-called irrationality means that some places have poor natural ecological conditions and are far from big cities, but they are still given great development authority, and these divisions can be adjusted appropriately. Generally speaking, we should be cautious in optimizing administrative divisions.
Improving the city level should not depend on the adjustment of zoning.
While some places are shrinking, some places need to adjust their divisions with the influx of population. For example, many mega-towns in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Jiangsu have hundreds of thousands of people, but they are only one town, and their staffing is far from meeting the demand. They are typical "small horse-drawn carts". For these places, the "Task" mentioned that it is necessary to promote the establishment of cities in large towns with qualified non-county government residences according to procedures.
On August 30th last year, the People's Government of Zhejiang Province officially issued a document: With the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Civil Affairs approved the People's Government of Zhejiang Province, agreeing to cancel Longgang Town in Cangnan County and establish Longgang City at the county level. Longgang is also the first mega-town to realize the transformation from town to city since the new urbanization construction.
In addition to the transformation of mega-towns into cities, with the influx of population in some central cities, municipal districts are also expected to adjust and expand the platform and capacity of central cities. "Task" mentioned that it is necessary to enhance the energy level and core competitiveness of central cities. Optimize the development of central cities such as municipalities directly under the central government, provincial capitals, cities with separate plans and important node cities, strengthen the protection of land use and other factors, and optimize the layout of major productive forces. Improve the scale structure and jurisdiction of municipal districts in some central cities, and solve the problem of serious shortage of development space.
This means that in the future, many central cities will continue to expand and strengthen the central city platform by withdrawing counties and setting up districts and merging surrounding areas. In fact, in recent years, all localities have changed counties and county-level cities into districts or merged their surrounding areas to enhance the platform of central cities. For example, Laiwu merged into Jin 'an, Xixian New Area was placed under Xi 'an trusteeship, and Jianyang, a county-level city, was officially placed under Chengdu trusteeship.
After combing the data of land area and resident population of 33 key cities, the First Financial Reporter found that there are 1 5 cities with land area less than110,000 square kilometers, among which Shanghai, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Zhengzhou and Wuhan, Xiamen, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Foshan and Wuxi are all less than 5,000 square kilometers. Among them, Xiamen has only 1699 square kilometers; After Shenzhen was merged into Shenzhen-Shantou Special Cooperation Zone, it broke through 2,000 square kilometers and reached more than 2,400 square kilometers. Therefore, cities such as Shenzhen and Xiamen are facing the problem of insufficient urban development space.
Ding said that the economic quality of central cities such as Shenxia is quite good, but due to administrative divisions, it really restricts the further development of the city and needs further optimization. Land indicators should also follow people in the future. The land index of shrinking cities is inexhaustible, and many people flow to big cities, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou. The land index should increase with the increase of permanent population.
However, Yao Chen reminded that it is an extension way for some cities to expand their scale and upgrade their level by "changing counties into cities" and "changing counties into districts". Many cities want to be bigger and stronger and enhance their competitiveness. They always hope to merge some counties and cities through zoning adjustment, expand the urban area and increase the total economic output. But the consequence is that no one will make a fuss about innovation and improving the urban environment, which should be avoided.