Statistics show that during the period from 199 1 year to 18 year in 2008, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 13 times on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, accounting for 72.22%. Among them, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher on the first trading day after the Spring Festival in 2000 and rose by 9.05% on the whole trading day. At the same time, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 8.87% and 5.65% on the first trading day after 1996 and 1993 respectively. In other years that rose on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index rose less than 2.5% on that day. 199 1 year and 1992, the Shanghai composite index rose even less than 0.5% on the first trading day after the holiday.
On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index rose, and the stock market was often in a bull market. These years are 199 1 year, 1993, 1996, 2000, 2006 and 2007 respectively. It should be noted that not all the years when the stock market rose on the first trading day were in the bull market stage. Even in a bear market, there may be an upward trend on the first trading day after the holiday, such as 2002, 2004 and 2005. Although the market did not get out of the shadow of the bear market for some time, the Shanghai Composite Index showed an upward trend on the first trading day after the Spring Festival in these three years.
On the contrary, on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index also fell five times, with the largest decline of15. 13% on February 6, 1995, and the decline in other years was less than 3%. "When the Shanghai Composite Index falls on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, the stock market is often at the end of a bear market or a bull market." Guoyuan Securities analyst said.
Take the first trading day after the Spring Festival in 2008 as an example. On February 13, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.37%, and the following year, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by more than 60%. Even now, the bear market has not disappeared. The data shows that if the Shanghai stock index closes on the first day after the holiday, it means that the bear market may continue for some time, and the gains of the stock market will be greatly reduced.
There are many opportunities to rise in two months.
Regardless of whether the stock market shows an upward trend on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, investors always hope to get out of the post-holiday rising market. In fact, it is. Stimulated by the entry of various sources of funds into the stock market after the year-end settlement and the centralized disclosure of1-April annual report, the stock market often performs well within one or two months after the holiday.
18 years, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1 1 times one month after the Spring Festival, accounting for 6 1. 1 1%. 18 years, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 13 times two months after the Spring Festival, accounting for 72.22%. Even in the bear market, there are many rising prices after the Spring Festival. For example, in 1995, 2002 and 2004, the Shanghai Composite Index rose one month after the holiday, but the stock market as a whole was still in a bear market period.
In addition, judging from the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index one month after the holiday, the increase at the end of the bear market or bull market is greater than that in many bull markets. The data shows that after the Spring Festival, the Shanghai Composite Index fell seven times a month, with the biggest decline in 2008. From February 13 to March 13, the Shanghai Composite Index * * * fell by 13.66%. Of these seven declines, four were in the bear market period, 1 time was at the end of the bear market period, and two were in the stage of bull market period.
"Regardless of the rebound probability of the market after the holidays in previous years or the escort of policies, the performance of the stock market after the Spring Festival this year is still worth looking forward to, and investors should actively bargain-hunting." Guoyuan Securities reported that.
Looking forward to the market outlook
The theme hype will continue.
"Holding shares or holding money depends on what theme you hold." An industry analyst who did not want to be named told the reporter, "Overall, there is little opportunity for the post-holiday industry sector, and the automobile, steel and other sectors that have recently benefited from the revitalization plan have also begun to fall."
The analyst told reporters that 2009 will be an era of great achievements in theme stocks. "This market structure has been exposed before the holiday, and it is expected that the trend of post-holiday theme speculation will continue." Recently, it seems that the main force of the new fund coincides with the main force of the hot money, and themes such as theme stocks, Disney concepts, new energy concepts, venture capital concepts, mergers and acquisitions concepts, margin financing and securities lending, and stock index futures concepts have been staged in turn.