first season
A man went to the market to sell pigs, and it rained when it was dark. Twenty pigs were not sold, so he went to a farmhouse for the night.
The young woman said: it is inconvenient to have only one person at home.
Man: Please, big sister, give it to a pig.
W: OK, but there is only one bed in the house.
Man: I'm going to bed, too. Give it to a pig.
W: I agree.
In the middle of the night, the man and the woman discussed, I slept on you, and the woman refused.
Man: For two pigs.
Female permission, please don't move up.
After a while, the man couldn't help begging to move, but the woman refused.
Man: Give two pigs a move. The woman agreed.
The man moved eight times and stopped. The woman asked him why he did not move.
The man said that the pig was missing.
The woman whispered, or I'll give you a pig ...
After dawn, the man blew his whistle and caught 30 pigs (including the young woman's 10 pigs) and went to the market. ...
Comments: To find the potential needs of users, we must guide and cultivate the needs of users in the early stage, so the investment generated is in line with the law of development.
Second season
When another person knew about it, he decided to do the same thing, so he went to the market to sell pigs. It was dark and raining, and twenty pigs were not sold, so he went to a farmhouse for the night.
The young woman said: it is inconvenient to have only one person at home.
Man: Please, big sister, give it to a pig.
W: OK, but there is only one bed in the house.
Man: I'm going to bed, too. Give it to a pig.
W: I agree. Men and women in the middle of the night, I sleep on you, and women refuse.
Man: For two pigs.
Female permission, please don't move up.
After a while, the man couldn't help begging to move, but the woman refused.
Man: Give two pigs a move.
The woman agreed. The man moved seven times and stopped. The woman asked him why he did not move.
The man said: it's over ~ ~ ~
Female: ...
After dawn, the man lowered his head and drove two pigs to the market. ......
Comments: Invest cautiously in combination with the enterprise's own scale, and beware of the problem of broken capital chain.
third-quarter
When another person knew about it, he decided to do the same thing and learn from it. So he first traded a pig for a viagra, and it was necessary. After dawn, the man blew his whistle and caught 38 pigs (including 18 pigs from the young woman's family) and went to the market. ...
Comments: If enterprises get the help of financial capital, their own operating capacity will double.
There are many men who know this method, and the supply of Viagra is in short supply. Gradually, two pigs are needed, and three pigs are exchanged for one Viagra.
Comment: This is inflation.
When the pig price rises to 16, the first grain.
Comment: Men have entered marginal cost. In addition to having confidence in one's own ability and having good wishes for the future, the actual pig flow is already zero.
However, there are more and more pigs becoming men now. The decision to sell Viagra expanded the production capacity and introduced second-class Viagra. If you are short of a pig, you can borrow it first as long as you promise to stay in the woman's room for one night, and then pay the pig after it is done. This method has greatly promoted the sales of Viagra.
Comments: This is a loan that allows enterprises to borrow working capital according to future income.
Viagra store later, even if you don't have a pig, as long as you promise to stay in the woman's room for one night, you can borrow it first and pay the pig after the job is done.
Comment: This is financial innovation, which allows people now to spend money in the future. Anyway, you can't spend money when you get old.
As soon as the news came out, there were more and more men changing pigs, and some people were looking for Viagra shops. This project is so good that we can turn it into a high-quality fund and sell bonds to the outside world. You can share my profits, ok?
As a result, Viagra store felt very good, so the company divided the pig-changing men into three categories, one was to change live pigs, the other was to borrow some live pigs, and the other was not to borrow any live pigs at all, and issued three kinds of bonds. Everyone is very enthusiastic. They bought bonds from Viagra stores one by one. The business of Viagra Store was so good that it outsourced the sale of bonds to another company. The company also made a lot of money. The company grew bigger and bigger, and even distributed it to them out of the actual sales situation of Viagra, which brought huge cash benefits to itself and Viagra stores.
Comment: This is what professionals do. From entity operation to capital operation, the economy has entered a higher level.
In order to prevent its bonds from losing money in the future, the company decided to buy insurance for them, which made it easier to sell bonds.
Because once there is a problem with the bond, you can also get compensation from the insurance company. Wow, bond companies are selling well now, and insurance companies are getting huge insurance income for no reason.
Comments: This is a risk hedging and strategic alliance, which improves the anti-risk ability of enterprises and protects the interests of consumers.
There are too many pig-changing men, and the woman can't stand the long queue. She said that my mother resigned and I moved, and there were countless pig-headed men who owned Viagra at one time.
Comments: This is an individual phenomenon, which belongs to normal market fluctuation and will not affect the whole economy.
As a result, the woman refused to move back Some men who owe pigs have no income and have to default. Therefore, a large number of bonds cannot be converted into cash pigs at maturity. At first glance, the bond company was too expensive to buy a Viagra 16 pig and declared bankruptcy.
Comment: This is the subprime mortgage crisis, which in turn affects the entire financial industry.
I didn't know that bond companies also insured bonds. At first glance, the insurance company could not afford to pay, and also declared bankruptcy.
Comment: This is a financial crisis, which gradually affects the whole real economy.
Later: It is said that the woman has moved to China to settle down.
This time, the American subprime mortgage left the money in the private sector. Those stocks and insurance companies used bankruptcy to avoid it, because house prices fell and the face value of stocks and bonds fell.
Total losses caused by subprime mortgage crisis
According to the scale and price data of subprime bonds, the loss is about 1. 1.4 trillion USD× 81.5% = 9291billion USD. This data is not enough to make people panic, but the collapse of subprime mortgage has made high-grade bonds follow suit. The loss of AAA is about 5.73 trillion US dollars ×18.4% =10.05 trillion US dollars, and the loss of AA and A is about10.31trillion US dollars× 54.6% = 715.3 billion US dollars. In the Markit market, the total losses of institutions on these three types of bonds reached 0.93+ 1.05+0.72 = 2.705 trillion US dollars.
This figure is close to our previous estimate that the value of American stock houses has shrunk by $2.3 trillion, and far exceeds the boldest estimate of the investment community, namely Jane, chief economist of Goldman Sachs. Hazus' estimated $400 billion is close to his estimated total credit contraction of $2 trillion. The difference comes from Hazus' failure to take into account the losses suffered by AAA and AA mortgage bonds, and the decline of subordinated debt is not as great as it is now when he calculated it in early February last year. But in fact, even if the mortgage loan without securitization is to be transferred or fairly priced, it must be based on the price of the bond market, and the total mortgage bonds of *** 14.36 trillion US dollars, according to the weighted average loss rate of 33.2% mentioned above, the book loss can reach 3.45 trillion US dollars.
In order to verify the possibility of this huge loss, we consider it from another angle. The US government estimates that more than 2 million American families will lose their homes in the coming year. Auction of these houses in the court will depress house prices and cause great losses to the overall value of the property. According to the most conservative estimate, if the overall house price drops by 8% in 2008, the total value of American housing stock will shrink by $22.8 trillion × (10%+8%) = $4.1trillion.
The loss of $ 4. 1 trillion is partly due to the fluctuation that has no impact on the economy, and the other part is the loss of $2.705 trillion reflected in the bond market in advance, and a small amount is the loss of consumer loans. If the house price rises first and then falls, it will only be an empty joy for Americans in numbers, and it will have little impact on the American economy and investment market. But the problem is that Americans have transformed the digital appreciation of housing assets into real consumption and welfare.
In fact, the growth of GDP in the United States since 200 1 has mainly contributed to the early consumption of a large number of Americans, and these consumption are all loans obtained by relying on houses as collateral. It can be considered that the prosperity of American housing industry, which brings rising house prices, has been consumed by American consumption spree. The risk of falling house prices is transferred to bond investors by the financial engineering of investment banks, so that bond investors can pay for American consumption. At present, house prices are falling, and bond investors are suffering from shrinking housing assets. Mortgage and consumer loans have payment problems, or small commercial loans have operating losses, which will cause losses to mortgage-backed bond investors.
- !
The American-style modern financial crisis is affecting the whole world in this form! !