In 2023, Spring Festival travel rush's craze quickly warmed up.
Many cities "slim down"
After the implementation of the new epidemic prevention policy, domestic passenger flow continued to recover. With the arrival of the Spring Festival in 2023, the lively scene of "going home for the New Year" is heating up. Daily Interactive Big Data and Hangzhou West Lake Data Intelligence Research Institute jointly released the "Report on Spring Festival travel rush's Stealing in 2023". (Note: urban slimming index = 1- the active population of a city on the observation day before the Spring Festival/the average active population of the city in the previous year is 65438+February)
Spring Festival travel rush is heating up strongly in 2023, and it is hard to get a ticket for Spring Festival travel rush. With most migrant workers returning home, the population in many cities lost weight during the Spring Festival. According to the report, in the first week of Spring Festival travel rush, Guangdong, Henan, Hunan and Anhui had the largest number of people in the first-tier and new-tier cities of 19, and Guangdong, Henan, Hunan and Anhui were the provinces with the largest number of people returning home in Spring Festival travel rush in 2023.
Judging from the slimming situation, Dongguan ranked first in the Spring Festival of 2023 with a slimming index of 47. 1%, which means that nearly half of the people in the city chose to return home during the Spring Festival. Dongguan is known as "the largest manufacturing base in the world" and "the world factory". In 202 1 year, the city's GDP reached one trillion for the first time, and it also became the fifth 15 "two-million-city" with GDP exceeding one trillion and population exceeding ten million. According to the statistics of China census by county in 2020, by 2020, the population from outside Dongguan will reach 69 1 10,000, accounting for nearly 60% of the city's permanent population.
Followed by Suzhou, the slimming index reached 45%. It is reported that by 2020, the inflow population of Suzhou Province will reach 3.93 million, accounting for 30.8% of the city's permanent population, making it one of the most attractive new first-tier cities. However, during the Spring Festival, the proportion of staying in the city for the New Year is relatively small.
Shenzhen's slimming index is 34.9%, ranking third. According to Guangdong Statistical Yearbook 20021,the permanent population of Shenzhen reached 17633800 at the end of 2020, the registered population reached 5,845,800 in the same period, and the net inflow population was11788,000. The proportion of aborigines in Shenzhen is very low, and many registered people have only settled in these 20 years.
It is worth mentioning that Chongqing's weight loss index is -3.3%, and it has begun to gain weight. The slimming index of most first-tier and new first-tier cities has recovered or even exceeded the level of the same period in the Spring Festival in 2020. Among them, Suzhou, Hefei, Dongguan, Foshan, Hangzhou, Changsha and other cities ranked high in terms of recovery.
Accelerated release of cultural tourism consumption demand
It will take time for listed companies to recover their performance.
At present, it is in the "two festivals" tourist season, and the cultural tourism market is obviously warming up. The booking popularity of cultural tourism products on some platforms has exceeded the same period of last year. The accelerated release of mass cultural tourism consumption demand will help the industry restore confidence and lead the innovative development of cultural tourism supply.
The "2023 Spring Festival Holiday Tourism Consumption Trend Report" released by Tongcheng Travel shows that the demand for Spring Festival travel has risen sharply this year, especially for long-distance travel. Flying pig travel data shows that during the Spring Festival, the average unit price of related tourism products increased by over 70% year-on-year, and the per capita booking volume of hotels and scenic spots increased by nearly 20% year-on-year. Everyone's travel radius, duration and number of companions have increased significantly. At the same time, the booking volume of high-star hotels increased by nearly 30% year-on-year, and the booking volume of boutique township villagers' accommodation more than doubled year-on-year.
According to industry insiders, with the liberalization of the access policy, the tourism confidence and consumption confidence of China tourists will be accelerated, and the return of China tourists will bring new vitality to the global tourism recovery.
Stimulated by the expected recovery of tourism consumption, tourism rebounded sharply in the fourth quarter of last year. After New Year's Day, the tourism sector has been adjusted. According to the statistics of Securities Times and DataBao, since June 5,438+10, tourism stocks have fallen by 5.49% on average, significantly underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index in the same period. Seven stocks, including Xi 'an Tourism, Sante Cableway, Dalian Shengya, Qujiang Lv Wen, Zhangjiajie, Changbai Mountain and Western Region Tourism, fell more than 10%. China Zhong Mian, China Youth Travel Service and China cits joint rose by more than 5%.
Judging from the performance data, it will take time for the current performance of the tourism industry to pick up. According to the statistics of DataBao, at present, only Sante Cableway, Song Cheng Performing Arts and Tianmu Lake disclose the performance forecast, and the net profit is in a state of pre-loss or pre-reduction. Taking Song Cheng Performing Arts as an example, the company's net profit in 2022 is estimated to be 7.5 million yuan to 65,438+065,438+0.25 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 96.43% to 97.62%. Previously, the organization unanimously predicted that the company's net profit in 2022 was 654.38+33 billion yuan, which means that the company's performance was significantly lower than the organization's expectations.