2020 is coming slowly in the cold winter. After the decline in subsidies and negative market growth last year, where the market will go this year has become the biggest guess. From now on, First Electric Network will launch a series of 20 19 year-end inventory and early 2020 outlook, aiming at systematically reviewing and looking forward to the new energy vehicle market in 20 19 and 2020 through a series of keywords.
One day in the deep winter of 2065438+2009, employees of a well-known domestic automobile company began to vomit in the office. The topic this time is that the company's shuttle bus and parking lot have actually started charging.
"Now car companies are starting to lay off employees. We don't lay off employees. What's wrong with collecting bus fare? What kind of bike do you want? ! "Unfortunately, this is a moment to deepen office friendship. Not only did the boss participate, but he also left such a meaningful sentence.
Indeed, looking back at the 20 19 automobile industry, "layoffs" is one of the unavoidable keywords. However, the layoffs in the past year mainly occurred in the world's top big MAC car companies headed by BBA.
Will it be staged on a large scale in China car companies in 2020?
The wave of layoffs has hit, and global giant car companies are hard to escape.
If the world car looks at Europe, then Germany must be the center of the European car world. As the top three of Volkswagen Group and BBA Automobile, the German Department naturally played an "exemplary" role in this layoff.
20 19 March, Volkswagen was the first to announce that it would lay off 10% of its managers, and 7,000 employees would retire before 2023.
In the second half of the year, with the further deterioration of the global automobile market, the top three BBA companies had to lay off employees and slim down. First, in September, BMW Group announced that it would lay off 5,000-6,000 people by 2022; In 65438+February, Daimler and Audi followed closely, and both said that they would lay off a large number of employees, with the number approaching 1 10,000.
Although the specific list of layoffs has not yet been announced, it is not difficult to see from the information currently known that "high-level" is the hardest hit by German enterprises in this round of layoffs. Both Volkswagen and Audi have confirmed that they will streamline the company management team. This also reveals a message that in this long-term and gradual layoff plan, most European car companies have chosen a top-down approach.
Compared with slightly cautious Europe, American car companies have shown a more direct side. As a representative of a new car company, Tesla is always more sensitive to the market. 2065438+In June 2008, Musk announced that he would lay off 9% of American companies. Just seven months later, Tesla began the second round of layoffs, laying off 3,000 people, accounting for 7% of the total number of employees.
Without a gradual process and a long buffer period, Tesla quickly lost weight twice.
Not only Tesla, who is 15 years old, but also GM, which is11year old, has been completely laid off. 2065438+0816543810, General Motors announced that it planned to lay off 14000 people and close seven processing plants around the world, including five in North America and two in other regions. According to incomplete statistics, before February 6, 2009, GM had laid off 4,000 employees, and by March, the number had increased to 8,000.
Ford, who is also more than a hundred years old, is also extremely decisive in layoffs. 2065438+In May 2009, Ford announced that it would lay off 7,000 people worldwide, including 2,300 American employees. For these 7,000 employees, the deadline given by Ford is before September. Then, in June, Ford announced again that it would lay off 65,438+02,000 people in Europe, mainly involving hourly workers. This time, these 10,000 employees have been left for more than a year, and the layoffs will be completed before the end of 2020.
In seven months, nearly 20,000 employees were laid off. This efficient working speed is very American.
Unlike Germany's caution and the rapid development of the United States, the layoffs of Japanese car companies are more "targeted". Since 20 19, Nissan * * * has announced four layoffs, namely 1, twice in May and July, and laid off 700 people, 600 people, 4,800 people and12,500 people respectively, targeting the United States, Spain and the world. From the specific content of layoffs, it is not difficult to find that Nissan wants to get rid of overseas factories with low utilization, such as the Mississippi factory in the United States and the Barcelona factory in Spain.
Similarly, Honda announced in May 20 19 that it would lay off 3,500 people, mainly for its factories in the UK.
In the economic winter, deciding where not to cut is the principle pursued by Japanese enterprises.
The wave of layoffs landed in China, and the new forces of independent car companies and car-making in the rear were the hardest hit areas
Since it is an era in which no one can be immune, can China car companies be spared when the wave of layoffs sweeps across the world?
In 20 19, this did not happen. It seems that the China automobile market has really become the only remaining highland. So far, no company has revealed any signs of significant layoffs, except for the over-expanded Weilai, which announced that it would reduce its global staff from nearly 65,438+00,000 to 7,800.
But what will happen in 2020? In response to this problem, First Electric Network visited the relevant responsible persons of several domestic car companies.
Du, assistant general manager of BYD Auto, said: "There will be no layoffs, but there will be a normal competition assessment mechanism to survive the fittest. Every business department has a KPI assessment. " Although BYD's sales declined in the second half of 20 19 due to the subsidy recession, both joining hands with Toyota and launching new cars to the market one after another showed that BYD was still operating in an orderly manner.
Xiao Yong, deputy general manager of GAC New Energy, is full of confidence in 2020. "We plan to increase by more than 50% this year, so we will increase personnel." Since the establishment of 20 17 in July, GAC has only Aion at present. s、Aion？ LX and Chuanqi GE3, but in such a market environment, the cumulative sales volume has achieved a contrarian growth for five consecutive months. This outstanding achievement has indeed laid a solid foundation and confidence for its development this year.
However, some people have put forward different views.
"I think layoffs will definitely affect China enterprises. From the perspective of sales volume and profit data, only a few China enterprises are slightly better than joint ventures, and most of them are still relatively poor, so this is an inevitable trend. " An executive of a large car company analyzed First Electric, "But China enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, also have some characteristics. Several major state-owned enterprises in China, in addition to their own brands, also have their own joint venture brands to give them blood transfusion. Although they have entered the post-joint venture era, they should still have surplus grain at home, so they may be cautious in taking layoffs. " At the same time, state-owned enterprises also shoulder special attributes and should respond to the call of the state, the first of which is to stabilize employment.
In this wave, state-owned enterprises can survive, but the days of private independent brands are not so good.
"Private independent brands may take similar measures, but I don't think this measure is purely for layoffs. I may also take this opportunity to slim myself down, find my own direction and positioning, and make an adjustment to the whole team. " The veteran said, "I think it is necessary. At this stage, it can also be regarded as a rest period. "
"So it depends on how to apply for layoffs. What's your purpose? If layoffs are made to survive, I think it may take some time to observe. But if you want to adjust yourself and get better, it is still necessary. "
Another senior observer in the industry holds a similar view, and he further made this analysis: "From the market point of view, the total sales volume of China cars in 20 18 was 2,808110,000, and the data in 20 19 will come out in a few days, which will probably be around 26 million. In this way, in just 20 19 a year, there will be at least 2 million excess capacity in China automobile market. Then, will the corresponding surplus personnel be laid off in 2020? According to the current market, in 2020, it would be good if the overall sales volume of China Auto could be the same as that of 20 19. "
However, he believes that layoffs are difficult to occur universally because the development of each car company is different. In the heads of state-owned car companies and private car companies, layoffs are hard to happen. But in the tail of private car companies, such as Zotye, Cheetah, Haima and so on. Layoffs are likely to occur on a large scale. In the vast majority of new car-making forces, layoffs are also a high probability event.
The tide of electrification is unstoppable.
As he said, the layoffs sweeping the world are not only unavoidable, but also irresistible. Under the dual pressure of economic downturn and electrification, car companies have to lay off employees to control costs, and on the other hand, they must speed up the transformation to electrification.
As we all know, the development of automobile electrification has become an irreversible reality.
Let's first look at a set of policy time points.
In 20 18, Greece drafted a national energy and climate plan, and it is planned that the proportion of electric vehicles in Greece will reach10% in 2030;
In 2050, the EU government plans to achieve zero emissions, and Denmark, which has many European automobile brand factories, hopes that this time can be advanced to 2040;
On 2019165438+10/5, the Colombian government issued a decree to reduce the tariff rate of imported electric vehicles to 0%, cancel the import quota restrictions, and reduce the tariff rate of imported pure natural gas-powered vehicles to 5%;
At the end of 20 1 19 10, the Slovak Ministry of Economic Affairs officially announced that starting from 12 and 17, Slovak residents, enterprises and public institutions can apply to the government for car purchase subsidies when purchasing pure electric or hybrid vehicles. According to the regulations, the subsidy price shall not exceed 50,000 euros, of which the upper limits of pure electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles are 8,000 euros and 5,000 euros respectively;
In addition to the above-mentioned newborn policy, the subsidy policy originally scheduled by the German government to end by the end of 2020 is also planned to be extended to the end of 2025. According to this policy, the subsidy for electric vehicles with a price of less than 40,000 euros will increase by 50%, and the subsidy for electric vehicles with a price of less than 65,000 euros will increase by 25%. The subsidy amount will be borne by the government and car companies, 50% respectively.
Even our African brother Tanzania has begun to control the import of used cars for environmental optimization, which is enough to show that under the pressure of the environment, the demand for new energy vehicles will be huge in the future.
Tesla, which has experienced layoffs and lost its burdens, is developing rapidly at an unexpected speed of traditional car companies. In 20 19, Tesla not only surpassed Porsche in the first half of the year with global sales of/kloc-0.58 million vehicles, but also surpassed BYD with sales of nearly 808,000 vehicles, and successfully topped the global electric vehicle sales champion.
Perhaps it is because of its efforts that established car companies have seen the greater temptation behind new energy vehicles. Therefore, the transition to electrification is almost an unavoidable choice for all car companies. And "changing cages for birds" is only the biggest step in this transformation.
In fact, in this coming wave, these established and powerful people still have a big market. After all, except for Tesla, companies that have already laid out electric products have not performed very well. For example, BMW i3 and i8, which have been confirmed to be discontinued soon, have a total sales volume of only 5 100 vehicles in 20 18. Even the annual sales of 565,438+000 is something to be proud of. After all, compared with the well-known BMW i3, many models are even in the blind spot of consumers.
Therefore, in order to occupy the market early, various car companies have announced the timetable of electric vehicles.
General Motors announced that by 2023, more than 20 pure electric vehicles will be launched around the world. Among them, China is an important market. By 2020, GM will launch 65,438+00 new energy vehicles in the China market. In 2023, 20 new energy vehicles will be put into the market. By 2025, most of Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac models will be electrified in China.
Volkswagen Group also said that it will launch more than 80 new electric vehicles by 2025, including 50 pure electric vehicles and 30 plug-in hybrid vehicles. By 2030, more than 300 models of Volkswagen will launch at least one electric vehicle.
2025 seems to be an important time point in the electric plans of various car companies. Not only GM and Volkswagen Group, BBA will also meet this stadium in five years.
Mercedes-Benz said that 10 EQ family pure electric new cars will be launched before 2025, when pure electric new cars will account for15%-25% of the total brand sales; BMW plans to add 25 new energy vehicles by 2025, including 12 pure electric vehicles, covering all its brand models, and the estimated sales volume will also reach15%-25%; In contrast, Audi has made faster progress. By 2025, the company plans to launch 30 electric vehicles, accounting for 40% of the total sales.
Toyota, which had not made efforts before, also tacitly set the time node in 2025. According to information released by Toyota, the company will start to introduce pure electric vehicles in China in 2020. By 2025, Toyota will sell more than 65,438+00 pure electric products in the China market, achieving an annual global sales of 5.5 million electric vehicles.
From these figures, it is not difficult to guess that maybe China in 2025 will be the beginning of the electric car track.
Su Hui, president of china automobile dealers association Tangible Market Branch, thinks that "five years is more reliable". He analyzed, "Since the sales volume of the automobile market has been declining for two consecutive years, it is likely to continue to decline next year. Therefore, in the five years to 2025, the automobile market in China may turn from decline to rapid growth. By then, the China auto market will enter a stable state. "
At the same time, 2025 is also a year for many car companies to make efforts in China. With the influx of strong competitors, Su Hui thinks that the adjustment of China's automobile market will be huge, which may exceed our expectations. "The proportion of joint ventures between new energy car companies and traditional energy car companies will be further liberalized, which will have a greater impact and require Chinese car companies to have a buffer period."
At the same time, he also predicted that the number of new energy vehicles may reach 800-100000 in 2025, and the market will be more active. ?
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.