For these three automakers, this round of restructuring is tantamount to a "major operation" from the inside out. When many details gradually surfaced, everyone was generally concerned about the following issues-
Hope to avoid the risk of "separation" by "division of labor", can the three companies that are falling apart find a stable position in the wind and rain fluctuations? In the face of the V-shaped recovery of The Last Stop, can Nissan successfully save itself in the medium-term strategy? Moreover, under the background of Dongfeng Renault's defeat in China, what will be the legal fate of China?
The third topic is closely related to China.
The fate of French cars in China is both a strong topic and a weak topic in the industry in recent years. The reason why it is a weak topic is that with the decline of sales volume, the glory of the legal system in China market is no longer there, and external voices are often seen in newspapers. After a long time, everyone seems a little tired of this topic.
The reason why it is a strong topic is that the legal system is experiencing an important node where opportunities and crises coexist at the critical turning point of electrification transformation, the capping of COVID-19 and the low growth of the global automobile market. If we have a bird's eye view of the fundamentals of this topic from a broader global perspective, there are too many new industrial logics to sort out, and many details are worth re-examining and interpreting.
The critical moment of French cars
Renault's current experience is a mirror of the world legal system.
In the past year, Renault's life was not moist, and the performance of many core dimensions was bleak due to the drag of Nissan, an alliance partner. According to the company's financial report for fiscal year 20 19, they, like Nissan, suffered the worst annual performance since 10.
Explicit data show that Renault's operating income this fiscal year is 55.537 billion euros, which is 3.3% lower than 57.4 billion euros in 20 18. Operating profit was 2 1 100 million euros, a year-on-year decrease of 880 million euros, with a drop of up to 30%; The operating profit rate is 4.8%, which is lower than 6.3% in 20 18. The net profit was 6.5438+0.9 million euros, down 99.5% year-on-year.
Based on the embarrassing performance, Renault decided to lower some core targets in 2020. The target of operating profit rate is lowered from 4.8% in 20 19 to 3%-4%, and the dividend in 20 19 is lowered by nearly 70%.
The year 2020 is a turning point for Renault.
In July this year, the company will welcome its new CEO Luca de Meo, a former Volkswagen executive who led the revival of SEAT and revived the brand's global sales. In order to dig a corner, Renault promised huge returns. According to an internal document of Renault, the company will pay De Mayo a salary of about 5.8 million euros, which is nearly 57% higher than the salary of former CEO Bollore in 20 19.
However, the new De Mayo is bound to face pressure.
Like its competitors, Renault is also trying to cope with the downward trend of global demand for new cars, and predicts in advance that there will be a slight decline in Europe, Russian Federation and China by 2020. In addition, they are currently under pressure to meet stricter emission targets, and at the same time, they need to inject huge amounts of money into new business areas such as electrification transformation and autonomous driving, and weigh the profitability of input and output and related businesses.
De Mayo's career also has limitations, such as lack of international competition experience.
In his more than 20 years of experience in the automobile industry, most of his business is concentrated in Europe, including the most representative SEAT brand, which has been in charge for 5 years. For the crucial next few years, it is still a big question mark whether he can reorganize the enterprise well, whether he has the ability to manage multiculturalism (integrate Asian/European business) and whether he has the "political skill" to handle the relationship between France and Japan.
Cash flow is also a potential problem.
When Nissan's financial contribution to Renault decreases, it may affect Renault's R&D investment level in key areas such as self-driving cars and electrification. Now that COVID-19 is at its peak, Renault's cash flow is even worse.
French Finance Minister Lemerre said at the end of May that Renault, which was hit by the epidemic, might go bankrupt if it didn't get help as soon as possible. He added that Renault's current situation is even more dangerous and hoped that the company could recognize the current situation as soon as possible in a passive environment.
"Yes, Renault may disappear." Lemerre admitted that in the first quarter just past, the company's revenue dropped by 65,438+09% to 6,543.8+0 billion euros, of which the revenue in the European market dropped by 36%, and many core markets felt the impact of the coronavirus blockade.
According to the latest information released on May 29th, Renault will reduce the global production capacity from 4 million vehicles in 20 19 to 3.3 million vehicles in 2024, and will also lay off nearly15,000 people worldwide. Through comprehensive business restructuring and business revaluation, Renault plans to reduce the number of subcontractors in the production field and the global gearbox manufacturing scale, and plans to save 2 billion euros in the next three years.
Just over half of 2020, Renault's pain continues.
Advance and retreat choice
Different from the absolute leading position of European base camp, in recent years, the performance of French cars in China market is relatively flat. In April this year, Dongfeng Renault, a joint venture that coincided with the "seven-year itch", announced its dissolution, once again pushing the fate of French cars in China to the forefront-
Will Peugeot Citroen be doomed to leave China after Dongfeng Renault? Will the sudden COVID-19 outbreak become the last straw to crush the legal system when the market share drops? The environment is so unbearable, will the future of Shenlong Automobile add more variables?
In all fairness, the overall situation of PSA is relatively good on a global scale, but the automobile manufacturers in this legal camp are better at operating in Europe, not to mention having almost no presence in North China, but their performance in the market is not satisfactory.
Because of this, with the withdrawal of Dongfeng Renault, the argument that "French cars will lose to China" was once rampant. "Automobile Commune" believes that the current legal system has entered a critical moment of dilemma.
Let me talk about the dilemma of the current legal system.
The so-called "gold", Renault and PSA all hope to maintain the original position of global car companies in the new round of industrial transformation. However, a successful global car company will never be satisfied with the status quo in Europe, and its ambitious minions will inevitably extend to regions and markets outside Europe.
So in this process of strategic expansion, which markets are the most important, or which markets will be designated by Renault as the top priority of external expansion under the premise of limited resources and reserves in all aspects?
For the rule of law, except Africa and South America (former French colonies), North America, Japan and South Korea are not as important as China. Because of this, China is the most important market for French cars. If you want to win the leading position of global car companies, no matter how difficult it is, China will try its best to chew it down.
The so-called "retreat" is the antonym of "advance", just to maintain the current market advantage and ensure the leading position of the European base camp. Just like General Motors, which is constantly "slimming down", it focuses on high-profit return markets such as North America and China, gradually withdraws from areas with weak sales and sustained losses, saves costs through strategic contraction, and focuses on more growth and future-oriented business areas.
In fact, for the current legal system, there is inherent logic and truth in choosing to go forward or retreat, but the process of making a choice is not only related to the pattern, but also tests wisdom.
If we continue to advance, we must continue to deepen the China market and understand the needs of consumers in China. Judging from the current layout, PSA is still sticking to China, and Renault has basically given up joint-venture passenger cars in China, but the commercial vehicle field (Renault Brilliance) will continue, and the future development focus will shift to electric vehicles (imports) and light commercial vehicles.
It takes courage to move forward; Retreat requires will.
For French cars, no matter which road you choose, challenges and risks coexist, and it is not easy to walk. If we stick to Europe blindly and lose the status of global car companies, many values, including supply chain and brand, will be greatly compressed. It is hard to say in the future that landing in France will be a fatal blow to a powerful global car brand.
At least for now, Carlos Tavares, the head of Peugeot Citroen, wants to gamble in the China market. There is a certain chance of winning this bet, but the probability of winning is not great.
Because of this, the current legal system, whether it is the new layout of the global market or the new choice of the China market, is at a critical moment. Every step forward determines the future direction and the success or failure of electrification turning point. Carlos Tavares is still hesitating, and the whole legal system is struggling. However, it seems too early to jump to conclusions about its fate in China.
The Gaul Legion is no longer the glory of Charlemagne, but the journey cannot stop. After all, if the French car is destined to become a story, then at least we should leave a page that can attract the attention of future generations in our struggle, instead of even the words describing it being abandoned in a dusty corner.
Text/North Shore
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This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.